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    Adani Power

    ADANIPOWERStrong
    Power·1 May 2025
    Management Summary

    Adani Power delivered a strong FY25 with 20.7% volume growth and 14.8% EBITDA growth, driven by acquisitions and strong power demand. The company is executing a massive capacity expansion from 17,550 MW to 30,670 MW by 2030, with 11.2 GW of BTG orders placed. The Mahan Phase 2 project is 54% complete and expected to commission in March-April 2027, with subsequent units every 6 months. Balance sheet strength allows INR 120,000 crore total capex over 6 years to be funded entirely from internal accruals. Bangladesh receivables of ~USD 900 million remain outstanding but payment trends improving.

    Highlights

    8
    • FY25 Continuing Revenue grew 10.8% to INR 56,473 crore; Continuing EBITDA grew 14.8% to INR 21,575 crore

    • FY25 power sales volume increased 20.7% to 95.9 billion units; 91% plant availability

    • Q4 FY25 power sales grew 19% to 26.4 billion units; Continuing PBT at INR 3,248 crore

    • Operating capacity reached 17,550 MW after 2,300 MW acquisition during the year

    • Expanding to 30,670 MW by 2030; INR 13,307 crore capex planned for FY26

    • Advance orders placed for 11.2 GW ultra-supercritical BTGs; PPAs signed for 2.92 GW

    • Won 4 commercial coal mines (14 MTPA capacity) for captive use; one to start production in FY26

    • Net debt/EBITDA at 1.4-1.5x; AA rating from 4 agencies; capex to be funded from internal accruals

    Concerns

    1
    • Bangladesh receivables of ~USD 900 million including USD 136 million LPS

    Key financials

    Metrics

    15

    Periods

    4

    Headline

    4
    • Godda FY25 EBITDA
      ₹4,820 Cr
    • Godda FY25 Revenue
      ₹8,352 Cr
    • Net Debt/EBITDA
      1.45 x
    • Operating Capacity
      17,550 MW

    Q4

    1
    • Merchant Realization
      5.03 INR/unit

    Q4 FY25

    2
    • Continuing Revenue
      ₹14,522 Cr
    • Continuing EBITDA
      ₹5,098 Cr

    FY25

    8
    • Continuing Revenue
      ₹56,473 Cr
      YoY+10.8%
    • Continuing EBITDA
      ₹21,575 Cr
      YoY+14.8%
    • Continuing PBT
      ₹13,926 Cr
      YoY+21.3%
    • PAT (Reported)
      ₹12,750 Cr
    • Power Sales Volume
      $95.9B
      YoY+20.7%

    Segment breakdown

    Godda (Bangladesh)
    ₹8,352 Cr FY25 Revenue₹4,820 Cr FY25 EBITDA900 Mn Bangladesh Receivable (gross)
    Expansion Projects
    ₹13,307 Cr FY26 Capex Plan54% Mahan Phase 2 Progress
    List

    Guidance & targets

    4
    CategoryTargetPriority
    Capacity
    Target Operating Capacity
    30,670 MW by 2030
    High
    Capacity
    Unit Commissioning Cadence
    One 800 MW unit every 6 months starting March-April 2027
    High
    Capex
    FY26 Expansion Capex
    INR 13,307 crore
    High
    Merchant Market
    FY26 Outlook
    Good rates expected throughout the year
    Medium

    Risks & concerns

    5
    RiskSeverity

    Bangladesh receivables of ~USD 900 million including USD 136 million LPS

    Total billing USD 2,000M, received USD 1,207M. Outstanding reducing with payments exceeding monthly billing. 50% of LPS accepted by Bangladesh.Both acknowledged

    high

    Merchant realization declining: INR 5.03/unit Q4 FY25 vs INR 6.17/unit Q4 FY24

    FY25 merchant realization at INR 5.93 vs INR 6.92 in FY24. Management bullish on FY26 outlook due to demand growth and limited new thermal capacity.Both downplayed

    medium

    Massive capex execution risk across 7 ultra-supercritical projects simultaneously

    Brownfield execution model with package-based contracts to mitigate; 11.2 GW BTG orders already placed for supply chain securityAnalyst downplayed

    medium

    New capacity PPAs only for 2.92 GW out of much larger expansion pipeline

    14+ GW bids at various stages with coal linkage earmarked under SHAKTI policy; GoI target revised from 80 GW to 100 GWAnalyst downplayed

    medium

    Areas of Evasion(1)

    • Capacity plans beyond 30 GW

    Q&A highlights

    3

    “in the last quarter, the outstanding has gone down by around INR500 crores. So, the payment which we are getting now is more than the monthly billing”

    USD 900M receivables a key risk but payments improving with outstanding reducing - critical for investor confidence

    asked by Abhinav (ICICI Securities)

    1 min read4 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strong Operational Performance with 20.7% Volume Growth

    Adani Power generated 102 billion units and sold 95.9 billion units in FY25, up 20.7% YoY. Operating capacity increased to 17,550 MW after acquiring 2,300 MW during the year. Plant availability maintained at 91%. Continuing EBITDA grew 14.8% to INR 21,575 crore driven by higher volumes and lower fuel prices. However, reported PAT declined from INR 20,829 crore to INR 12,750 crore due to normalization of prior-period income and INR 3,610 crore tax expense.

    02

    Massive Capacity Expansion to 30,670 MW by 2030

    Seven 2x800 MW ultra-supercritical projects underway at Raipur, Raigarh, Kawai, Mahan, Korba, Mirzapur with BTG contracts awarded to BHEL. Mahan Phase 2 at 54% progress with March-April 2027 commissioning expected, followed by one 800 MW unit every 6 months. INR 8,000 crore expansion capex in FY25, with INR 13,307 crore planned for FY26. Total 6-year capex target of INR 120,000 crore fundable entirely from internal accruals.

    03

    Bangladesh: Continuing Supply with Improving Payment Trends

    Full power supply to Bangladesh continues uninterrupted. Total billing of USD 2,000 million with USD 1,207 million received. Gross outstanding including USD 136 million LPS at approximately USD 900 million. Outstanding reduced by INR 500 crore in Q4 with payments now exceeding monthly billing. 50% of LPS amount already accepted by Bangladesh.

    04

    Coal Mining and PPA Pipeline Securing Future Growth

    Won 4 commercial coal mines with 14 MTPA capacity (3 in MP, 1 in Maharashtra) serving 3,000 MW equivalent. One mine to start production in FY26. Savings primarily from transportation cost reduction. PPAs signed for 2.92 GW with over 14 GW bids at various stages. GoI revised thermal capacity addition target from 80 GW to 100 GW. Coal allocated to states under SHAKTI policy B(iv) clause mitigates fuel risk.

    This is an AI-generated summary of a publicly available earnings call transcript. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an endorsement. inve.money is not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.