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    Hind.Aeronautics

    HALStrong
    Capital Goods·17 May 2024
    Management Summary

    HAL delivered an exceptional FY24 with 13% revenue growth, achieving double-digit growth a year ahead of guidance. The Rs 1,500 crore LCA IOC Change Order 3 boosted Q4 margins significantly. Order book crossed Rs 94,000 crores with Rs 1,60,000-1,70,000 crore pipeline providing visibility till 2032. Management articulated clear capacity building with Rs 14,000-15,000 crore CAPEX plan and third LCA line at Nashik.

    Highlights

    8
    • Revenue surged to Rs 30,381 crores (+13% YoY) vs Rs 26,928 crores; achieved double-digit growth a year early

    • Q4 boosted by Rs 1,500 crores one-time revenue from LCA IOC Change Order 3 price revision

    • Order book at Rs 94,000 crores (+Rs 12,000 crores YoY); Rs 19,000 crores new manufacturing orders concluded

    • EBITDA margin guidance 29-33% (26-27% ex-interest income); operating profit at 18-20%

    • ROH at 68% of revenue (~Rs 20,000 crores); manufacturing proportion to improve to 40:60

    • 5-year CAPEX plan of Rs 14,000-15,000 crores (Rs 3,000 crores/year avg)

    • Rs 47,000 crores orders expected in next 6-12 months including AL-31FP, LUH, Su-30

    • Order pipeline of Rs 1,60,000-1,70,000 crores expected in 18 months to 3 years (97 LCA Mark 1A, 156 LCH, 43 ALH, 60 UHM)

    Concerns

    1
    • LCA Mark 1A supply chain challenges for 16 deliveries in FY25

    What Changed3

    vs Q4 FY25

    Tone shiftGood → StrongGuidance items13 → 11 (-2)Risks discussed7 → 5 (-2)

    Key financials

    Single quarter

    06 metrics
    1. 01Revenue₹30,381 Cr+13%YoY
    2. 02Order Book₹94,000 Cr+14.6%YoY
    3. 03ROH Revenue Share68%
    4. 04Manpower Cost as % Revenue17%
    5. 05Inventory Days159 days

    Guidance & targets

    11
    CategoryTargetPriority
    Revenue
    Sustained Double-Digit Growth
    Double-digit consistent growth till 2032
    High
    Margins
    EBITDA Margin (with interest)
    32-33%
    High
    Margins
    EBITDA Margin (ex-interest)
    26-27%
    High
    Order Book
    Expected Order Book Mar-25
    Rs 1,20,000 crores
    High
    Order Pipeline
    Total Anticipated Orders
    Rs 1,60,000-1,70,000 crores
    High
    Capex
    5-Year CAPEX Plan
    Rs 14,000-15,000 crores
    High
    Deliveries
    LCA Mark 1A FY25 Deliveries
    16 aircraft
    High
    Capacity
    LCA Production Capacity
    24 aircraft/year
    High
    ROH
    ROH Revenue Growth
    8-9%
    High
    Revenue Mix
    Manufacturing vs ROH Ratio
    40:60
    Medium
    Exports
    Export Revenue
    Breakthrough order in FY25
    Medium

    Risks & concerns

    7
    RiskSeverity

    LCA Mark 1A supply chain challenges for 16 deliveries in FY25

    Management acknowledges supply-side challenges for certain major LRUs due to geopolitical situation but claims confidence in timely deliveryBoth acknowledged

    high

    One-time revenue items inflating reported growth and margins

    Rs 1,500 crore Change Order 3 and Rs 900 crore prior year D&A adjustments create high base; underlying growth lowerAnalyst acknowledged

    medium

    Export revenue negligible at Rs 311 crores (1%)

    Despite years of efforts, export revenue minimal. Discussions with Philippines, Argentina, Nigeria, Egypt ongoing. Breakthrough order still pendingBoth acknowledged

    medium

    GE F414 commercial terms undecided

    TOT scope of 80% agreed but commercial terms (payment structure, royalties) not yet discussed. Will take 6 months for clarityAnalyst acknowledged

    medium

    Order pipeline realization dependent on government approvals

    Rs 1.6-1.7 lakh crore pipeline requires multiple government approvals over 18 months to 3 yearsManagement acknowledged

    low

    Areas of Evasion(2)

    • GE F414 commercial terms
    • Technical specifications (aircraft weight)

    Q&A highlights

    5

    “the IOC contract Change Order 3...has been finalized in the last quarter...almost 1,500 crores of additional revenue”

    One-time Rs 1,500 crore boost from LCA IOC price revision inflated Q4 and full-year margins

    asked by Jonas Bhutta (Birla MF)

    1 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Double-Digit Growth Achieved Ahead of Schedule

    Revenue of Rs 30,381 crores represents 13% growth, achieving the double-digit target a year early (guided for FY25). However, Rs 1,500 crores from LCA IOC Change Order 3 inflates this; adjusted growth closer to 7-8%. Proactive procurement enabled quick deliveries - 2 Dorniers to Guyana within 10 days, 6 ALH to Army before March-end, 15 RD-33 engines within month of contract.

    02

    Massive Order Pipeline Provides Decade-Long Visibility

    Order book at Rs 94,000 crores with Rs 47,000 crores expected in 6-12 months (AL-31FP, LUH, Su-30). Beyond that, Rs 1.6-1.7 lakh crore pipeline includes 97 LCA Mark 1A (AoN approved), 156 LCH Prachand, 43 ALH, 60 UHM, Dornier upgrades. Orders to keep lines busy till 2032.

    03

    Capacity and CAPEX Investments

    5-year CAPEX plan of Rs 14,000-15,000 crores covering: third LCA line at Nashik (operational Oct 2024), Tumkuru helicopter factory, engine facilities, forging presses (20,000-ton isothermal, 50,000-ton hydraulic), carbon fiber facility (Rs 600 crores). LCA capacity being augmented from 16 to 24/year.

    04

    Cost Optimization Driving Margin Improvement

    Manpower cost rationalized from 23% (FY19) to 17% (FY24), targeting 16% in FY25. Overhead reduced from 8% to 4.66%. Inventory days optimized from 360 to 159. Debtor days from 227 to 55. Operating profit at 18-20% with EBITDA 29-33% (including 6% interest income).

    05

    New Platforms Adding to Product Profile

    Each year from FY25 adds new platforms: FY25 - LCA Mark 1A and LUH scale-up; FY26 - HTT-40 and Civil ALH deliveries; FY27 - UHM for Navy, LCA Mark 2 prototypes, IMRH prototype manufacturing. Engine programs: AL-31FP, RD-33, GE-414 TOT, Safran JV for IMRH.

    This is an AI-generated summary of a publicly available earnings call transcript. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an endorsement. inve.money is not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.