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    Happy Forgings

    HAPPYFORGE
    Capital Goods·19 May 2025
    Management Summary

    Happy Forgings delivered stable growth in FY25, with adjusted revenue up 4.7% and adjusted PAT up 11.2%, despite significant headwinds in key end-user sectors and a 4% top-line impact from declining steel prices. The company achieved its highest-ever full-year profitability with strong margins and secured over INR1,600 crores in new orders for PV and Industrial segments, reinforcing its long-term growth trajectory and robust financial health with zero net debt to EBITDA.

    Highlights

    5
    • FY25 adjusted revenue grew by 4.7% to INR1,409 crores, demonstrating stable growth.

    • Achieved highest-ever full-year profitability with gross margin of 58%, EBITDA margin of 28.9%, and PAT margin of 18.6%.

    • Realizations strengthened to INR248 per kg, up from INR243 per kg, despite declining raw material prices.

    • New orders exceeding INR1,600 crores secured in PV and Industrial segments, with an annual peak revenue potential of INR250 crores.

    • Maintained a robust balance sheet with low debt-equity (0.1) and zero net debt to EBITDA, including liquid investment.

    Concerns

    4
    • Experienced a 4% impact on top line growth in FY25 due to declining steel prices.

    • Witnessed double-digit declines in international CV, farm equipment, and off-highway segments.

    • Faced a domestic slowdown in the MHCV segment.

    • European and North American farm equipment markets reported mid-teen declines in unit sales for calendar year '24.

    What Changed2

    vs Q1 FY26

    Guidance items6 → 13 (+7)Risks discussed4 → 6 (+2)
    Key financials

    Metrics

    11

    Periods

    2

    Q4 FY25

    5
    • Revenue
      ₹350 Cr
      YoY+2.5%
    • EBITDA
      ₹102 Cr
      YoY+5%
    • EBITDA Margin
      29.1%
    • PAT
      ₹68 Cr
    • PAT Margin
      19.2%

    FY25

    6
    • Adjusted Revenue
      ₹1,409 Cr
      YoY+4.7%
    • Adjusted EBITDA
      ₹407 Cr
      YoY+7.4%
    • Adjusted EBITDA Margin
      28.9%
    • Adjusted PAT
      ₹263 Cr
      YoY+11.2%
    • Adjusted PAT Margin
      18.6%

    Segment breakdown

    Commercial Vehicle
    30% Revenue Contribution
    Farm Equipment
    30% Revenue Contribution0.05 mid-single-digit Growth Rate
    Off-Highway Vehicle
    12% Revenue Contribution
    Industrial
    14% Revenue Contribution30% Growth Rate (adjusted)
    Passenger Vehicle
    4% Revenue Contribution
    List

    Order Book

    high confidence

    Execution

    executed over the next 5 to 8 years

    Composition

    Passenger Vehicle & Industrial(segment)
    ₹ 1,600 crores

    "New orders in PV and Industrial segments provide strong revenue potential for the coming years."

    Source:
    Prepared remarks

    Capital allocation

    5
    high confidence
    CategoryHeadline
    Capex

    ₹400 crores

    new plan — includes solar capex · primarily funded by internal accruals and partially through debt

    Debt

    0.0x EBITDA

    Dividend

    ₹3/share (final)

    M&A

    Deal

    acquisition · announced · AUM ₹50 crores

    Liquidity

    Cash ₹356 crores

    Cash balance plus short and long-term FDR and liquid investment in mutual fund.

    Guidance & targets

    13
    CategoryTargetPriority
    Revenue
    Organic CAGR Revenue Growth
    15%
    High
    Revenue
    Industrial Segment Annual Peak Revenue Potential from new orders
    INR250 crores
    High
    Revenue
    Crankshafts Revenue Contribution
    exceeding 50%
    High
    Market Share
    PV Segment Revenue Contribution
    8% to 10%
    High
    Realization
    Realization per kg (stable steel price basis)
    INR275 to INR280
    High
    Realization
    Machined Business Realization
    INR600 per kg-plus
    High
    Volume
    Scrap Sales Volume
    increase
    Medium
    Volume
    Farm Equipment Domestic Growth
    high single-digit
    Medium
    Volume
    Farm Equipment Exports
    flattish or improvements
    Medium
    Other Income
    Other Income (maintained portion)
    70% to 75%
    Medium
    Efficiency
    Asset Turns (more forging business)
    1.2x to 1.3x
    Medium
    Efficiency
    Asset Turns (purely machined business)
    around 1x
    Medium
    Revenue Growth
    PV Segment Growth
    nearly 100% CAGR
    High

    Solar Capex Land Acquisition & Commencement

    next 2 months (land acquisition), this year (capex)
    Current35 acres acquired, 60 acres planned
    TargetAcquisition of remaining 60 acres and commencement of solar capex

    Why it matters

    Solar capex is a significant part of the FY26 plan, impacting capital allocation and long-term energy costs.

    Balance 60 acres is planned to be acquired in the next 2 months. So we expect the solar capex to happen in this year.

    How to verify

    capital_allocation.capex.fy_planned

    Risks & concerns

    6
    RiskSeverity

    Global Macroeconomic Headwinds and Sector Slowdown

    Persistent challenges across key end-user sectors, including double-digit declines in international CV, farm equipment, off-highway segments, and domestic MHCV slowdown.Management acknowledged

    high

    Declining Steel Prices Impact on Top Line

    Roughly a 4% impact on top line growth in FY25 due to declining steel prices.Management acknowledged

    medium

    International Commercial Vehicle Market Downturn

    Double-digit declines in CV deliveries reported by major OEMs in Europe and North America, impacting export performance.Management acknowledged

    high

    Farm Equipment Market Downturn (Europe & North America)

    Mid-teen declines in unit sales for calendar year '24 in European and North American farm equipment markets.Management acknowledged

    high

    Global Tariff-Driven Uncertainties

    Lingering global tariff-driven uncertainties, particularly regarding potential US tariffs on India, could impact new business.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Jammu Project Delay

    Delay in land procurement and project due to government policy issues and 'war situation', holding for decision.Management acknowledged

    low

    Q&A highlights

    8

    “So we generate over 30,000 tons of scrap every year. Probably this will go up in the coming year. And so INR4 to INR5 a kg impact on the scrap prices, which is nearly affecting 1% of our EBITDA has gone in this year.”

    Clarifies the volume of scrap generated, its historical impact on EBITDA due to price declines, and potential for future positive contribution with rising steel prices.

    asked by Mitul Shah

    2 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Robust Financial Performance Despite Sector Headwinds

    Happy Forgings reported a stable financial performance in FY25, with adjusted revenue growing by 4.7% to INR1,409 crores. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 7.4% to INR407 crores, leading to an EBITDA margin of 28.9%. Adjusted PAT rose by 11.2% to INR263 crores, achieving a PAT margin of 18.6%, marking the highest-ever full-year profitability despite a 4% top-line impact from declining steel prices.

    02

    Strategic Diversification Mitigates Market Slowdown

    The company successfully navigated significant headwinds, including double-digit declines in international Commercial Vehicle (CV), farm equipment, and off-highway segments, as well as a domestic slowdown in MHCV. This resilience was attributed to strategic diversification into new segments like Passenger Vehicles (PV) and Industrial, which now contribute 4% and 14% of revenues, respectively, up from 2% and 12% three years ago.

    03

    Significant New Order Wins and Realization Improvement

    Happy Forgings secured new orders exceeding INR1,600 crores in the PV and Industrial segments, with an annual peak revenue potential of INR250 crores, to be executed over the next 5-8 years. Realizations per kg strengthened to INR248, up from INR243, despite a INR7-8 per kg decline in raw material prices, driven by an improved product and machining mix.

    04

    Ambitious Capex Plans for Future Growth

    The company is progressing with its INR650 crores capex plan for a heavy components facility, expected to commence production in FY27. Additionally, INR80 crores is allocated for PV segment expansion. The total FY26 capex is projected at INR300 crores without solar, potentially rising to INR400 crores with solar investments, which include acquiring 95 acres of land.

    05

    Strong Balance Sheet and Capital Efficiency

    Happy Forgings maintains a robust financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.1 and zero net debt to EBITDA, including liquid investments. The company generated INR292 crores in cash from operations after adjusting for working capital and taxes, enabling it to fund its capex primarily through internal accruals. A final dividend of INR3 per equity share was recommended, reflecting commitment to shareholder value.

    06

    Segmental Performance and Outlook

    In FY25, CV and Farm Equipment segments each contributed 30% to revenue, while Off-Highway contributed 12%. Domestic farm equipment showed green shoots, with expectations of high single-digit growth, and exports are anticipated to be flattish or improve from Q3 FY26. The PV segment is targeted to contribute 8-10% of total revenues over the next two years, with nearly 100% CAGR growth possible.

    07

    Industrial Segment Expansion and Diversification

    The Industrial segment's revenue share increased to 14% in FY25, showing approximately 30% growth on an adjusted basis. This segment is seeing good traction in wind and new clients. The new INR650 crores project will primarily cater to higher horsepower engines (50% of revenue) for data centers, mining, defense, and marine applications, with the balance split across oil & gas, defense, and aerospace.

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