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    H P C L

    HINDPETRO
    Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels·22 Jan 2026
    Management Summary

    HPCL delivered strong financial results in Q3 FY26, driven by operational efficiencies and deleveraging. Key projects like Visakh RUF and Barmer refinery are progressing well, with commissioning milestones achieved. While the Mumbai refinery incident impacted GRM, the company's strategic focus on retail sales and competitive LNG deals positions it for future growth, alongside initiatives in digital transformation and green energy.

    Highlights

    5
    • Standalone PAT for Q3 FY26 was INR4,072 crores, up 32.6% YoY, and 9M FY26 PAT was INR12,274 crores, up 206%.

    • The Visakh RUF project was commissioned, targeting 100% utilization by March 2026 and expected to add $2.5/barrel to GRM.

    • Barmer refinery commissioning is progressing, with first products expected in February 2026 and full capacity by Q1 FY27.

    • Leverage significantly reduced to 0.86 in Q3 FY26 from 1.37 at the beginning of the year, leading to INR250-300 crores lower interest expense.

    • Operational efficiency improved, with Opex to turnover at 1.37% in Q3 FY26 (vs 1.60% in Q3 FY25) and Opex per metric ton down 13% YoY.

    Concerns

    3
    • Mumbai refinery GRM was impacted by $3.5/barrel due to the B-80 crude incident, reducing overall HPCL GRM by $1/barrel.

    • HMEL reported a PAT loss of INR94 crores in Q3 FY26 and INR18 crores for 9M FY26 due to a turnaround.

    • Marketing margins were slightly dampened in Q3 FY26 due to the Mumbai incident and strategic decision not to chase discounted bulk diesel volumes.

    Key financials

    Metrics

    10

    Periods

    4

    Headline

    3
    • PAT
      ₹4,072 Cr
      YoY+32.6%
    • Refinery Throughput Utilization
      103%
    • Refinery GRM
      8.85 $/bbl

    Q3 FY26

    3
    • Opex to Turnover
      1.4%
    • LPG Under-recovery
      ₹503 Cr
    • HMEL PAT
      ₹-94 Cr

    9M

    1
    • PAT
      ₹12,274 Cr
      YoY+2.1%

    9M FY26

    3
    • Opex to Turnover
      1.4%
    • HMEL PAT
      ₹-18 Cr
    • HMEL EBITDA
      ₹4,000 Cr

    Capital allocation

    3
    CategoryHeadline
    Capex

    ₹13,000 crores

    cut — running a high leverage, consciously picked and choose where we could look at investments

    Debt

    0.9x EBITDA

    M&A

    ADNOC Gas

    joint venture · closed

    Guidance & targets

    12
    CategoryTargetPriority
    Capacity
    Visakh RUF Utilization
    100%
    High
    Capacity
    Barmer Refinery Full Capacity
    Full capacity
    High
    Capacity
    Visakh Distillate Yield
    82%
    High
    Profitability
    Visakh RUF GRM Impact
    $2.5 per barrel
    Medium
    Profitability
    HPCL LNG Terminal Cash Positive
    Cash positive
    Medium
    Profitability
    HPCL LNG Combined Business Cash Positive
    Cash positive
    Medium
    Debt
    Leverage Ratio
    Lower than 1.15
    High
    Efficiency
    Samriddhi 1.0 Benefits (Recurring)
    INR518 crores
    High
    Efficiency
    Samriddhi 1.0 Benefits (One-time)
    INR749 crores
    High
    LPG Under-recovery
    LPG Under-recovery (Jan 2026)
    INR95 per cylinder
    High
    LPG Under-recovery
    LPG Under-recovery (Post-Jan 2026)
    INR120 per cylinder
    High
    Project Cost
    Rajasthan Refinery Project Cost
    Roughly INR80,000 crores
    High

    Visakh RUF 100% Utilization

    March 2026
    CurrentCommissioned, undergoing stabilization
    Target100% utilization

    Why it matters

    Key milestone for a major project, expected to significantly boost GRM.

    We are targeting a performance guarantee test, which will mean 100% utilization somewhere in March.

    How to verify

    guidance_and_targets[metric='Visakh RUF Utilization']

    Risks & concerns

    4
    RiskSeverity

    Impact of B-80 Crude Incident

    Mumbai refinery GRM impacted by $3.5/barrel, leading to an overall HPCL GRM reduction of $1/barrel due to the incident.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Petchem Margin Compression

    Analyst questions comfort with current low petchem margins. Management emphasizes focus on asset utilization and flexibility of integrated assets rather than short-term crack spreads.Analyst acknowledged

    medium

    Excise Duty Changes

    Persistent analyst concern about potential government policy changes regarding excise duty. Management states they prepare for scenarios but will not comment on government policy.Analyst deflected

    medium

    Delayed Projects (Historical)

    Management acknowledges past concerns about delayed projects but states they are now 'coming to fruition,' citing Visakh RUF and Barmer progress.Management acknowledged

    low

    Q&A highlights

    8

    “I'm the CEO running the company, but if I was an investor, I would have taken a different decision knowing the strength of the company right now. It is a really strong company and up to you guys to make what value it should we figure out on it.”

    Analyst highlights HPCL's strong financial performance (28% ROE, 6% dividend yield, 0.2x sales valuation) but low market cap, questioning why the market isn't reflecting the value. Management deflects, stating their focus is on performance, not market valuation.

    asked by Sumeet Rohra

    3 min read8 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Visakh RUF Project Commissioning

    HPCL successfully commissioned its Residue Upgradation Facility (RUF) project in Visakh a few weeks prior to the call. This project is a significant technical advancement, being the first in the world to achieve 93% conversion of bottoms through LC-MAX technology. The company is targeting 100% utilization by March 2026, following a performance guarantee test, and anticipates financial results from this unit in the next full year. The RUF is expected to contribute an additional $2.5 per barrel to the GRM.

    02

    Barmer Refinery Progress

    The Barmer refinery project is progressing well, with all four pipelines commissioned and crude/natural gas already in the refinery. The commissioning process for the CDU plant is underway, with the first tranche of products expected in February 2026. HPCL aims to ramp up the refinery to full capacity by Q1 FY27, with petchem operations following a quarter or so later. The total project cost is estimated to be roughly INR80,000 crores, with no further escalation anticipated.

    03

    Strong Financial Performance & Deleveraging

    HPCL reported a Q3 FY26 standalone PAT of INR4,072 crores, a 32.6% increase YoY, and a 9-month PAT of INR12,274 crores, up 206% YoY. This strong performance has enabled significant deleveraging, with the stand-alone leverage ratio improving to 0.86 in Q3 FY26 from 1.37 at the beginning of the year. This reduction in debt has led to a lower interest expense of INR250-300 crores in Q3 FY26 compared to the previous year.

    04

    Operational Efficiencies & Samriddhi Program

    The company's focus on operational efficiencies is yielding results, with opex as a percentage of turnover improving to 1.37% in Q3 FY26 from 1.60% in Q3 FY25. The Samriddhi 1.0 program has generated INR1,260 crores in benefits to date, comprising INR518 crores in recurring benefits and INR749 crores in one-time📎 gains. HPCL is now initiating Samriddhi 2.0, with guidance for next year's targets to be provided in the upcoming analyst call.

    05

    Strategic Focus Areas

    HPCL is prioritizing several strategic areas for future growth, including a strong digital focus with a new acceleration roadmap, enhanced customer focus through renovated retail outlets and improved services like HP Pay, and the creation of a separate CGD vertical. The company is also expanding its lubes business with high-grade synthetic lubes, international partnerships, and increased R&D, alongside venturing deeper into green and alternate energies.

    06

    Marketing Performance & Diesel Strategy

    Overall sales grew by 3.1% in Q3 FY26, primarily driven by the retail segment. HPCL consciously avoided chasing bulk diesel volumes at significant discounts, which led to some market share loss in the bulk segment but maintained or improved retail market share. The Mumbai refinery incident and aggressive competitor pricing slightly dampened marketing margins during the quarter, though crack spreads have since normalized.

    07

    ADNOC Gas and LNG Portfolio

    HPCL closed a 5 million ton, 10-year Brent-linked sales purchase agreement with ADNOC Gas, described as one of the most competitive deals in India. The company's LNG portfolio is in its infancy but is considered competitive, with current activities including selling LNG sourced from outside to gain better margins. The Chhara terminal is expected to become cash positive within a year or so, especially once the breakwater is completed, enabling all-weather port operations.

    08

    HMEL Performance and Mumbai Incident Impact

    HMEL reported a PAT loss of INR94 crores in Q3 FY26 and INR18 crores for the 9-month period, primarily due to a turnaround during the quarter. The Mumbai refinery incident, involving B-80 crude, resulted in a $3.5/barrel impact on Mumbai's GRM and a $1/barrel impact on HPCL's overall GRM, with associated costs in R&M and extra transportation. Management confirmed the issue is 'fully behind us' and the asset is running at optimal GRMs.

    This is an AI-generated summary of a publicly available earnings call transcript. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an endorsement. inve.money is not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.