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    M & M

    M&MGood
    Automobile and Auto Components·31 Jul 2024
    Management Summary

    M&M delivered a strong Q1 FY25 with broad-based market share gains across SUVs, LCVs, and tractors. Auto PAT grew 35% and farm grew 4% in a tough market. The company took a strategic price action on XUV700 to improve accessibility, while maintaining that the financial impact would be negligible due to operating leverage and cost reductions. Thar 5-door launch is imminent and expected to significantly expand the addressable market. Subsidiaries Mahindra Finance and TechM showed encouraging turnaround progress.

    Highlights

    8
    • Consolidated revenue up 10% YoY, consolidated PAT at ₹3,283 crores, up 20% excluding one-time gains from prior year

    • SUV market share up 130 bps, LCV up 160 bps, tractors up 180 bps — market share gains across all segments

    • Auto PBIT margin at 9.5% standalone, up 180 bps YoY; Farm core tractor margin at 19.7%

    • Auto volumes up 24% YoY in SUVs; mid-to-high teens growth guidance maintained for FY25

    • Mahindra Finance PAT at ₹497 crores, up 37% YoY; asset quality at 3.6% GNPA

    • XUV700 pricing action taken to improve brand accessibility — AX5 Select variant introduced below ₹20 lakh

    • Thar 5-door (Roxx) launch planned for August 15, expected to open up a wider segment

    • ROE at 19.4%, EPS growth target of 15-20% on a longer-term basis maintained

    What Changed1

    vs Q3 FY25

    Guidance items7 → 9 (+2)

    Key financials

    Single quarter

    06 metrics
    1. 01Consolidated Revenue+10%YoY
    2. 02Consolidated PAT₹3,283 Cr+20%YoY
    3. 03Auto PBIT Margin9.5%
    4. 04Farm PBIT Margin18.5%
    5. 05Core Tractor Margin19.7%

    Segment breakdown

    Revenue GrowthPAT
    Automotive16%₹1,330 Cr
    Farm Equipment0%₹1,238 Cr
    Mahindra Finance₹497 Cr
    Growth Gems
    Farm Machinery34%
    Heatmap· 2 shared metrics

    Guidance & targets

    9
    CategoryTargetPriority
    Volume
    SUV Volume Growth FY25
    Mid-to-high teens
    High
    Volume
    Domestic Tractor Industry Growth FY25
    ~5%
    Medium
    Profitability
    EPS Growth Long-term
    15-20%
    High
    Profitability
    Effective Tax Rate FY25
    23-24%
    High
    Market Share
    MHCV Market Share Target
    5% then 7-8%
    Medium
    Other
    EV Three-Wheeler Full Penetration
    100%
    Medium
    Other
    Logistics Express Breakeven
    Breakeven
    Medium
    Other
    Farm Machinery Profitability
    Profitable
    Low
    Margin
    BEV Per-Unit Margin vs ICE
    Same per-unit margin as equivalent ICE at steady state
    Medium

    Risks & concerns

    9
    RiskSeverity

    XUV700 price cuts may not be temporary despite being labeled 'anniversary promotion'

    Management insists negligible financial impact due to operating leverage and cost savings, but competitive pressure may prevent price restorationAnalyst downplayed

    medium

    Thar 3-door cannibalization from Thar 5-door launch

    Management admits uncertainty on cannibalization level — 'we don't fully know what is the level of cannibalization that may happen'Management acknowledged

    medium

    LCV/pickup segment stagnation for 18-20 months

    Management admitted struggling to explain why LCV demand hasn't recovered despite improving rural economy indicatorsBoth acknowledged

    medium

    EV policy flux — FAME 2 to EMPS to FAME 3 transitions causing revenue leakage

    Every policy change requires re-certification; pipeline stocks in transition periods are not covered, causing lossesManagement acknowledged

    medium

    Rubber commodity price inflation affecting tractor margins

    Rajesh flagged rubber prices going up as a watchout for tractor margins given tyre sizes on tractorsManagement acknowledged

    low

    US tractor market weakness — 10 straight quarters of de-growth in sub-100 HP segment

    OJA export growth partly reflects supply chain reallocation from other partners to Mahindra India, not purely organic market share gainsManagement acknowledged

    medium

    Areas of Evasion(3)

    • Margin guidance explicitly refused
    • EV pricing for upcoming SUVs deflected to 2025
    • Exact channel stock figures not shared

    Q&A highlights

    3

    “we really don't expect much of a financial impact as a result of this, because of the other balancing factors... it's announced as an anniversary promotion. So, it's not a price drop, so we always have the option of going back to any price”

    Key pricing strategy signal — management positioned the discount as temporary and claims negligible margin impact, but market may perceive differently

    asked by Binay Singh

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    SUV Market Share Dominance Continues with 24% Volume Growth

    M&M maintained its #1 position in SUVs with volume growth of 24% YoY in Q1 FY25, driven by strong traction in XUV 3XO and sustained demand for Scorpio N. SUV market share expanded 130 bps. Capacity has increased 3x in the last 4 years to 49,000 units/month, enabling management to gradually eliminate long waiting periods. The XUV 3XO attracted 25% first-time buyers and 20-25% hatchback upgraders, indicating successful segment expansion. Management reiterated mid-to-high teens growth guidance for FY25 with confidence.

    02

    XUV700 Strategic Price Reset to Drive Volume at Scale

    M&M took a deliberate pricing action on XUV700, introducing AX5 Select below ₹20 lakh and running a 'third anniversary promotion' on higher variants. The price had increased ₹3.8-4 lakhs since launch due to commodity and chip premiums. Management argued this was essential as on-road prices crossing ₹30 lakh were becoming a barrier for volume growth beyond 6,000 units/month. Capacity has scaled from 3,500 to 10,000 monthly. XUV700 bookings surged 40-45% in July versus the prior month. Management claims negligible financial impact due to chip cost normalization, value engineering, and operating leverage.

    03

    Tractor Business Achieves Target 19.7% Core Margin Despite Flat Market

    The farm equipment segment delivered 19.7% core tractor margin, reaching the long-targeted 19-20% band. Domestic market share hit 44.7% (seasonally higher in Q1). Volume grew 5% on market share gains despite a flat-to-slightly declining market. Multiple green shoots emerged: improving terms of trade for farmers, good July monsoons especially in previously drought-hit West and South regions, and increased government rural spending. Management maintained 5% industry growth guidance but indicated upside bias. Farm machinery revenue grew 34% to ₹265 crores.

    04

    Thar 5-Door Roxx Launch Poised to Expand Addressable Market

    Management built significant anticipation for the Thar 5-door (Roxx) launch scheduled for August 15, 2024, describing it as opening up a 'pretty wide' new segment versus the lifestyle-limited 3-door. The current Thar 3-door faces some demand moderation as prospects adopt a wait-and-watch approach. Management acknowledged uncertainty on the cannibalization between 3-door and 5-door variants but expects total franchise volume to increase. Billings have been temporarily moderated to manage dealer inventory during this transition.

    05

    Mahindra Finance Turnaround Gains Traction

    Mahindra Finance delivered PAT of ₹497 crores, up 37% YoY, with assets growing 23%. GNPA marginally increased to 3.6% from 3.4% (typical Q1 seasonality). Technology transformation reached a milestone with 100% branches under central processing. Management framed this as validation of the 3-year turnaround strategy initiated ~21 months ago. Anish Shah emphasized this business is 'finally unlocking its potential' after years of underperformance.

    06

    MHCV Trucks Business at Inflection Point

    M&M's truck business reached cash breakeven with 3.9% market share in its addressable 80% of the market (up from 2.5% three years ago, targeting return to 5% and eventually 7-8%). At 7-8% share, management sees this as a ₹10,000 crore revenue opportunity versus current ~₹3,500 crores. The ICV portfolio is now well-established, and the profit pool in the industry is strong. However, Q1 was distorted as the 20% segment where M&M doesn't play saw 50-60% growth while M&M's addressable 80% saw -1% decline.

    07

    Electric Vehicle Strategy: Three-Wheeler Leading, Four-Wheeler Awaiting 2025

    EV three-wheeler penetration reached ~20% in Q1, with management projecting 100% by 2030 when subsidies won't be needed. The MEAL (electric SUV) subsidiary is valued at up to $9 billion with investments from BII and Temasek, with valuation conversion linked to 2027 milestones. The last-mile mobility subsidiary is valued at ₹6,000+ crores with IFC and NIF Japan investments of ~₹1,000 crores. BEV margins will be reported separately from ICE. Management deflected specific EV pricing questions to 2025, maintaining that per-unit margins will match ICE equivalents at steady state.

    This is an AI-generated summary of a publicly available earnings call transcript. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an endorsement. inve.money is not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.