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    Maruti Suzuki

    MARUTI
    Automobile and Auto Components·31 Jul 2025
    Management Summary

    Maruti Suzuki delivered a resilient Q1 FY26 performance in a challenging domestic passenger vehicle market that contracted 1.4% YoY. While domestic wholesale volumes fell 4.5% to 430,889 units — largely due to continued affordability pressures on first-time buyers and shrinking hatchback demand (now 21% of industry vs 46% in FY19) — the company's exports business delivered an outstanding 37.4% growth to 96,972 units, commanding a 47.1% share of India's total PV exports. Net sales rose 8.1% to ₹366.2 billion, with ASP reaching its highest-ever level on favorable SUV/MPV mix. Margin performance reflected the volume headwinds, with sequential EBIT margin declining from 8.7% to 8.3%. Key drags included adverse operating leverage (60bps), steel-led commodity costs (40bps), forex headwinds (40bps), seasonally higher employee costs (50bps), and a 30bps hit from the newly commissioned Kharkhoda plant's underutilization. However, the company benefited from favorable mix (+30bps), normalization of lumpy ad spend from Q4 (+60bps), and a 50bps hedging gain booked in non-operating income. Net profit grew modestly to ₹37.1 billion. Strategically, Maruti is at an inflection point with two significant SUV launches planned this fiscal year — an EV to be exported to approximately 100 countries (including developed markets like Europe with 12% EV penetration, and Japan) and an ICE SUV. The company's export engine has been structurally strengthened over a decade through network expansion to ~100 countries, leveraging Suzuki's global distributor relationships, with Japan now the second-largest export destination. The service network expanded to 5,500 touchpoints with ~40,000 service bays across 2,764 cities. Management expressed cautious optimism for H2, citing positive rural demand trends, early monsoon benefits, and the upcoming festive season. The CAFE norms regulatory discussion is progressing constructively between industry and government, with final regulation expected in 1-2 months for powertrains effective April 2027. The company maintains a multi-powertrain strategy — 1 in 3 domestic cars sold is CNG, while 97% of volumes now carry six airbags as standard. For investors, the key thesis revolves around the EV launch catalyzing both domestic and export growth, the Kharkhoda capacity ramp improving margin absorption, and the structural export momentum. Risks center on sustained domestic demand weakness, rare earth material costs affecting both EV and ICE vehicles, and competitive intensity in the SUV segment where Grand Vitara volumes have declined.

    Highlights

    7
    • Total sales volume of 527,861 units, up 1.1% YoY — domestic sales declined 4.5% to 430,889 units while exports surged 37.4% to 96,972 units

    • Net sales of ₹366.2 billion vs ₹338.7 billion in Q1 FY25, an increase of 8.1% YoY driven by favorable mix toward SUVs

    • Net profit of ₹37.1 billion vs ₹36.5 billion in Q1 FY25, up 1.6% YoY despite domestic volume decline

    • EBIT margin at 8.3% of net sales (vs 8.7% in Q4 FY25), impacted by adverse operating leverage (-60bps), commodity costs (-40bps), forex (-40bps), and employee costs (-50bps), partially offset by favorable mix (+30bps) and lower ad spend (+60bps)

    • Kharkhoda Phase-I plant (250,000 units/annum capacity) commenced commercial production in Q4 FY25; margin drag of ~30bps from underutilization expected to normalize

    • Two SUV launches planned this financial year — one EV (for ~100 global markets including Europe and Japan) and one ICE SUV

    • Dealer inventory at a conservative 33 days; discounts flat QoQ on a per-car basis

    What Changed3

    vs Q2 FY26

    Guidance items7 → 6 (-1)Risks discussed8 → 6 (-2)Q&A highlights6 → 3 (-3)

    Guidance & targets

    6
    CategoryTargetPriority
    CAPEX
    ~₹10,000 crores for FY26 (MSIL standalone, excluding SMG)
    High
    Growth
    1-2% industry growth for FY26 (PV industry), Maruti targeting outperformance
    Medium
    Other
    Two SUV launches in FY26 — one EV (in ~100 global markets) and one ICE SUV
    High
    Other
    Solar capacity to 319 MW by FY31, targeting 85% renewable electricity share
    Medium
    Other
    Rail dispatch share to 35% of total dispatches by FY31
    Medium
    Other
    CAFE norms final regulation expected within 1-2 months, effective April 2027
    Medium

    Risks & concerns

    6
    RiskSeverity

    Persistent domestic demand weakness

    Domestic PV industry declined 1.4% YoY in Q1. First-time buyers remain subdued due to affordability issues. Hatchback segment share has halved from 46% (FY19) to 21%. Urban markets weaker than rural. Retail de-growth of 3.7% was worse than industry's 1.3%.

    high

    Rare earth and critical mineral supply disruption

    Rare earth magnets used in both EVs (high consumption) and ICE vehicles (lower). Supply chain resilience for EV components not fully established. Lithium and other critical mineral availability concerns.

    medium

    Kharkhoda plant underutilization margin drag

    New Greenfield plant (250,000 units/annum) commenced commercial production in Q4 FY25 but operating below capacity. Overheads and depreciation creating ~30bps margin headwind.

    medium

    SUV segment competitive intensity and Grand Vitara volume decline

    Grand Vitara volumes saw significant decline. Analyst flagged competitive pressure in mid-SUV segment with potential desperate measures by competitors.

    medium

    CAFE norms regulatory uncertainty

    CAFE norms for powertrains starting April 2027 still not finalized. Complex multi-stakeholder discussions ongoing between industry and government.

    medium

    Commodity cost headwinds (steel)

    Steel-led commodity costs created 40bps adverse impact on sequential margins in Q1 FY26.

    low

    Q&A highlights

    3

    “”

    asked by Amyn Pirani (JP Morgan)

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Domestic PV Market Slowdown and Hatchback Segment Erosion

    The domestic PV industry declined 1.4% YoY in Q1 FY26, with hatchback segment share shrinking to 21% from a peak of 46% in FY19. SUVs now command over 55% of industry sales while MPVs contribute ~11%. Maruti's domestic sales fell 4.5% to 430,889 units, with first-time family car buyers remaining subdued due to affordability constraints. Rural markets outperformed urban markets with positive growth, aided by early monsoon onset, while urban demand remained weak.

    02

    Export Engine Delivers Record Performance — Japan Emerges as Key Market

    Exports surged 37.4% to 96,972 units, pulling overall volume growth to 1.1% despite domestic weakness. Maruti now commands 47.1% of India's total PV exports, with the rest of the industry (ex-Maruti) declining 2.1%. Japan has become the second-largest export destination, driven by Jimny and Fronx success. The Fronx achieved 100,000 exports within 25 months — the fastest SUV to do so from India — and is the highest exported car from India in Q1 FY26. Export revenue stood at approximately ₹6,500 crores with sustainable, healthy margins per management.

    03

    Sequential Margin Walk — Multiple Headwinds Offset by Mix and Ad Spend Normalization

    EBIT margin declined sequentially from 8.7% (Q4 FY25) to 8.3% (Q1 FY26) despite volumes dropping 12.7% QoQ. Adverse factors included operating leverage (-60bps), steel-driven commodity costs (-40bps), forex (-40bps), seasonal employee costs (-50bps), and Kharkhoda plant underutilization (-30bps). These were partially offset by favorable product mix (+30bps) and ad spend normalization (+60bps, reversing Q4's 90bps lumpiness). A 50bps hedging gain on forex and commodities was booked in non-operating income, not captured in operating margin.

    04

    EV and Multi-Powertrain Strategy — 100-Country Launch, CAFE Preparedness

    Maruti plans to launch its first EV this fiscal year across approximately 100 global markets including Europe (12% EV penetration) and Japan. The company has invested in after-sales infrastructure including fast charging, home charging, 24x7 assistance, and service on wheels. CNG continues to gain domestic share, with 1 in 3 Maruti cars sold domestically being a natural gas vehicle. CAFE norms regulation is expected within 1-2 months, effective April 2027. Management advocated a multi-powertrain de-risked strategy over pure EV dependence.

    05

    ASP at Record Highs — SUV Mix Driving Realization Improvement

    Net sales per unit reached its highest-ever level, rising approximately 8% QoQ. Management attributed this entirely to mix shift toward larger SUVs and away from smaller cars, with no one-off📎 impacts. Net sales declined only 5.7% sequentially despite a 12.7% volume drop, confirming the positive mix impact. The rollout of six airbags as standard across ~97% of volumes by July-end is expected to support ASP further, though management did not quantify the incremental impact.

    06

    Kharkhoda Greenfield Capacity Ramp and Capital Allocation

    The Kharkhoda Phase-I plant with 250,000 units/annum capacity commenced commercial production in Q4 FY25. Currently operating below optimal utilization, it creates a ~30bps margin drag from overheads and depreciation. Management expects this to normalize as production scales. Total CAPEX guidance for FY26 is ~₹10,000 crores (MSIL standalone, SMG additional), tracking at ~25% in Q1. The company's two in-plant railway sidings have a combined dispatch capacity of 750,000 vehicles/annum.

    07

    Service Network Expansion and Sustainability Milestones

    Maruti's service network reached 5,500 touchpoints with approximately 40,000 service bays across 2,764 cities. In May 2025, the company serviced a record 24.5 lakh vehicles in a single month. Solar capacity stands at 78.2 MWp with plans to scale to 319 MW by FY31, targeting 85% renewable electricity share. Rail dispatches hit a record 518,000 vehicles in FY25 (24.3% of total), with a target of 35% by FY31. Spare parts revenue grew ~13% YoY in Q1.

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