National Aluminium Company Limited — Q4 FY26 earnings call

Call held 4 May 2026

Management summary

National Aluminium reported its best-ever physical and financial performance in FY26, driven by robust production volumes and improved operational efficiencies. Despite a significant decline in alumina prices, the company achieved strong revenue and profit growth. Management outlined ambitious capex plans for a new smelter and refinery expansion, while also addressing challenges from geopolitical events impacting alumina exports and rising raw material costs.

Highlights

  • FY26 marked best-ever physical performance across all areas including bauxite excavation, alumina hydrate, calcined alumina, metal production, net power generation, and wind power generation.

  • Revenue from operations for FY26 reached ₹17,843 crores, a 6.28% growth over FY25's ₹16,788 crores.

  • EBITDA for FY26 grew 8.72% to ₹8,613 crores from ₹7,922 crores in FY25.

  • PAT for FY26 increased by 9.22% to ₹5,816 crores from ₹5,325 crores in FY25.

  • Significant improvements in techno-economy figures, leading to savings in caustic soda, CP Coke, and furnace oil consumption.

Concerns

  • Alumina prices saw a significant reduction of over $200 year-on-year, with average realization falling from $580 in FY25 to $370 in FY26, leading to a negative impact of ₹2,659 crores.

  • Middle East conflict has affected alumina exports, with 40-50% of exports previously going to the region, and spot prices falling to $305-$310.

  • Raw material costs for caustic soda, CP Coke, aluminium chloride, and HFO have sharply increased in Q1 FY27, with caustic soda rising from ₹42,000 to ₹45,000 per ton and CP Coke from ₹53,000 to ₹57,000 per ton.

Key financials

2 periods

Headline

  • Revenue from Operations
    ₹17,843 Cr
    YoY +6.3%
  • EBITDA
    ₹8,613 Cr
    YoY +8.7%
  • Profit Before Tax
    ₹7,767 Cr
    YoY +8.9%
  • PAT
    ₹5,816 Cr
    YoY +9.2%

Q4 FY26

  • Alumina Realization
    348 $/ton
  • Aluminium Realization
    2,767 $/ton

What they filed

Q1 FY27: revenue up 39.3%, net profit up 90.9% against the same quarter last year.

₹ Cr · quarterly
Line itemQ2 FY25Q3 FY25Q4 FY25Q1 FY26Q2 FY26Q3 FY26Q4 FY26Q1 FY27
Revenue4,001 4,662 5,268 3,807 4,292 +7%4,731 +1%5,013 −5%5,302 +39%
EBITDA1,533 2,311 2,743 1,478 1,923 +25%2,173 −6%2,349 −14%2,708 +83%
Net profit1,046 1,566 2,067 1,049 1,430 +37%1,595 +2%1,722 −17%2,003 +91%
How to read this

₹ crore, as filed. The percentage beside a figure is the change against the same quarter a year earlier — never the quarter before, which would make every seasonal business look like it collapses and booms each year.

Segment breakdown

SegmentRevenue ShareSales Volume Growth
Aluminium (Metal)73%2.8%
Alumina (Chemical)27%30.7%

Capital allocation

high confidence
  • Capex ₹2,000 Cr Raised — exceeded target by almost Rs.400 crores
    • 5th stream refinery expansion
    • New aluminium smelter ₹17,000 Cr
    • Power plant (JV share) ₹5,000 Cr

    Previously planned ₹1,700 Cr

    Brijendra Pratap Singh: FY '26, around Rs.2,000 crores. Abhay Kumar Behuria: Our target was Rs.1,700 crores, but we have exceeded by almost Rs.400 crores more. Brijendra Pratap Singh: Actually, it is smelter is 17,000 crores to 18,000 crores and our power plant is around 12,000 crores. Since power plant, we are going for JV, only 50%, maybe 5,000 crores, 6,000 crores will be requiring for that. So it will come down to around 23,000 crores, 24,000 crores --to 23,000 crores, 24,000 crores.
  • M&A Utkarsh JV with Mishra Dhatu Nigam Divestment · Abandoned

    IRR with capex investment was coming negative; not favorable due to slow growth in transportation sector and low defense sector requirement.

    Brijendra Pratap Singh: Actually, Utkarsh JV was made and that basically, at that time, the forecast was that growth in the transportation sector will be there. Of course, defence sector requirement was there, but defence sector requirement was very less. And the kind of capex involvement was there around Rs.4,500 crores to Rs.5,000 crores capex was required for that. And as of now, the requirement in the transportation sector has not grown like that. That's why it is not looking that much favourable. Even the IRR with the capex investment was coming negative. That's why we are not going ahead with that.
  • M&A Neyveli Lignite Corporation Joint venture · Announced

    To form a 50-50 JV for a power plant, providing coal security for NALCO's expansion.

    Brijendra Pratap Singh: Already, we are into agreement with Neyveli Lignite. We have signed one MOU with them. We are in the advanced stage of negotiation with them, with Neyveli Lignite Corporation for forming a JV company in which 50-50 partnership will be there because Neyveli Lignite has got a coal mine here in Talcher, and that will be very near to our CPP. So we will be having a coal security also for our expansion. So now we are in the advanced state of forming a JV company.

Guidance & targets

Production Volume

  • Alumina Production Production Volume · FY27 · High confidence 25 lakh tons
    So, this year, optimistic planning we have done of 2 lakh tons. So around 25 lakh tons of alumina production and sales we are planning. That is around 2 lakhs more than the previous year.

    — Brijendra Pratap Singh

  • Metal Production Production Volume · FY27 · High confidence 4.73 lakh tons

    From 4.71 lakh tons today

    As far as the metal production is concerned, metal production again, we have targeted more than this year, slightly more because we have already reached to the upper limit. Our capacity is 4.6 lakh. Last year, we have done around 4.71 lakh tons of metal production. This year, we have planned around 4.73 lakh tons of metal production.

    — Brijendra Pratap Singh

  • Captive Coal Production Production Volume · FY27 · High confidence 4.8 million tons

    From 4 million tons (FY26) today

    Out of that, last year, we have produced our own, Utkal mines has produced around 4 million ton. This year, we are targeting 4.8 million ton.

    — Brijendra Pratap Singh

  • Wire Rod Mill Production Production Volume · within 2 years · High confidence 60,000 tons
    Around 60,000 tons of wire rod mill we are going in. It will take around two years.

    — Brijendra Pratap Singh

Sales Volume

  • Alumina Sales Sales Volume · FY27 · High confidence 25 lakh tons
    So around 25 lakh tons of alumina production and sales we are planning.

    — Brijendra Pratap Singh

  • Domestic Sales (Alumina) Sales Volume · FY27 · Medium confidence 2.5-3 lakh tons

    From 1.4 lakh tons today

    This year, '25-'26, we have done around 140,000 tons. We have increased the volumes in domestic sales by around 1 lakh tons. This year, again, we are targeting to further increase go to around 2.5 lakh tons to 3 lakhs tons, I think, something like that.

    — Brijendra Pratap Singh

Realization

  • Alumina Average Realization Realization · FY27 · Medium confidence $300-$310/ton

    From $370/ton (FY26 average) today

    But what we are expecting for this fiscal, this financial year, it will be somewhere around between $300 to $310 average alumina pricing will be there.

    — Brijendra Pratap Singh

  • Aluminium Average Realization Realization · FY27 · Medium confidence ₹3,000-₹3,100

    From ₹3,600 (current) today

    But what we are expecting should be somewhere around Rs.3,000 or Rs.3,100 for the average throughout the year.

    — Brijendra Pratap Singh

Capex

  • Total Capex Capex · FY27 · High confidence ₹4,000 crores

    From ₹2,000 crores (FY26) today

    Capex will be around Rs.4,000 crores. This year we are targeting around Rs.1,800 crores to Rs.2,000 that is '26-'27. '27-'28 somewhere around Rs.4,000 crores and similar kind of capex it will further increase because our total investment will be around both if you see power plant and this will be around somewhere around Rs.30,000.

    — Brijendra Pratap Singh

  • Total Capex Capex · FY28 · High confidence ₹8,000-₹10,000 crores

    From ₹4,000 crores (FY27) today

    Next three years, it will go to around Rs.8,000 to Rs.10,000 crores.

    — Brijendra Pratap Singh

Profitability

  • GNAL JV Profitability Profitability · FY27 · Medium confidence Turn to profit

    From Loss of ₹38 crores (FY26) today

    We expect that this year, again, they will turn to profit and the negative impact which they are having, which will further reduce.

    — Brijendra Pratap Singh

What to watch in Q1 FY27

5th Stream Refinery Commissioning & Production Ramp-up

Q2-Q3 FY27
Current Commissioning starting June 2026
Target Stabilized production and contribution of 2 lakh tons incremental alumina

Why it matters

Successful commissioning and ramp-up are crucial for achieving FY27 alumina production targets and overall volume growth.

Brijendra Pratap Singh: FY '27, if you see, our target is our 5th stream refinery is coming. So we are planning to add because commissioning will start in June and maybe take three, four months to reach to the production level. So, this year, optimistic planning we have done of 2 lakh tons.

Risks & concerns

  • Middle East conflict impacting alumina exports and spot prices

    high

    40-50% of alumina exports previously went to the Middle East, which is now affected, leading to reduced spot prices ($305-$310/ton) and closed shipping routes.

    Management acknowledged

  • Excess alumina in the market

    medium

    Indonesia's smelters starting operations and production curtailment in Middle East smelters create an excess of alumina, putting pressure on pricing.

    Management acknowledged

  • Rising raw material costs

    medium

    Caustic soda, CP Coke, aluminium chloride, and HFO prices have increased, potentially impacting the cost of production in Q1 FY27.

    Management acknowledged

Q&A highlights

7 direct
FY27 Alumina and Aluminium Production & Sales Volume Guidance Direct
FY '27, if you see, our target is our 5th stream refinery is coming. So we are planning to add because commissioning will start in June and maybe take three, four months to reach to the production level. So, this year, optimistic planning we have done of 2 lakh tons. So around 25 lakh tons of alumina production and sales we are planning. That is around 2 lakhs more than the previous year. And it will further increase as far as the commissioning process goes. As far as the metal production is concerned, metal production again, we have targeted more than this year, slightly more because we have already reached to the upper limit. Our capacity is 4.6 lakh. Last year, we have done around 4.71 lakh tons of metal production. This year, we have planned around 4.73 lakh tons of metal production.

Provides specific volume targets for both alumina and metal for the upcoming fiscal year, including incremental capacity from the new refinery.

Asked by Aditya Welekar from Axis Securities

Impact of Middle East situation on Alumina Exports and Sales Volume Partial
Our alumina export to the Middle East, of course, that was going earlier in the previous years, a lot of around 40%, 50% of our export was going to Middle East, which has got affected. But now from Indonesia and other places also orders are there. Of course, that has resulted into the reduction in the spot prices. The spot prices has gone down to as low as around $310 to $305. That is the effect of the war. So once this smelters of the Middle East, the production curtailment is there till they reach to the fullest capacity, there will be effect on the alumina pricing in the spot prices. Sales volume till now, no. Our volumes, whatever spot tender we are doing, we are getting the orders.

Highlights the direct impact of geopolitical events on alumina spot prices and export markets, while reassuring on current sales volumes.

Asked by Aditya Welekar from Axis Securities

Average Alumina Realization Price for Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 Outlook Direct
Brijendra Pratap Singh: Q4 '25-'26 average realization was somewhere around 3,000/tons. Alumina, you are talking or aluminium? Brijendra Pratap Singh: Alumina, it is $348. $348 was there in Q4. Manav Gogia: Okay. And how is Q1 looking? Abhay Kumar Behuria: Q1, it was $460. Q1 this year? Brijendra Pratap Singh: Q1 it is go down, it'll further go down. It is around 320 average we are getting now.

Provides specific alumina realization figures for the past quarter and a forward-looking estimate for the current quarter, indicating a declining trend.

Asked by Manav Gogia from Yes Securities Limited

Capex for New Aluminium Smelter and Phasing Direct
The new aluminium smelter already we have placed the order for making DPR for both smelter and our power plant. The preparation of DPR is under progress. Technology licenser already we are appointing. Our target is by this year, may be September, October, August, September, we will be able to complete the DPR, get the Board approval and start the tendering process for procurement, which will take six to seven months, means next month, next year, April, May, we can complete the ordering and start the actual groundwork and it will take around three and half years from there. Our target is by December 2030 or maybe early 2031 to complete the overall commissioning. Jagdish Arora: That will happen to be [Inaudible] capex will start in '27, but that will be starting of the capex. But the main capex cycle will start in '28-'29 and '29-'30 will be the peak capex cycle, and we'll be completing it by 30 or 30 month first half. So we'll be starting in '27 and three years we'll be completing our 0.5 million manufacturing.

Outlines the detailed timeline and phasing of the significant capex for the new smelter and power plant, crucial for future growth.

Asked by Manav Gogia from Yes Securities Limited

Alumina and Aluminium Cost of Production Direct
Abhay Kumar Behuria: If you see the cost of production of our alumina and aluminium, alumina, our cost varies from Rs.20,000 to Rs.22,000 in between, okay? And if you are talking about aluminium, it is Rs.155 to Rs.100 [Inaudible] Rs.155,000 to Rs.160,000, that is the rate. But the first quarter, the cost will not increase much, though there is some increase in the input cost. But since our employees costs are getting down because of the high paid employees are getting retired and we are recruiting new one. So whatever extra cost we are incurring in the input cost, that will be set up by our fixed cost. Reduction in fixed cost, employees cost, power and fuel. So there will be much hike in the cost. It will be varied in that range only within Rs.160,000.

Provides specific cost of production ranges for both alumina and aluminium, and explains factors influencing cost stability despite rising input costs.

Asked by Pinakin from HSBC

Employee Cost Trends and Pay Commission Impact Direct
Brijendra Pratap Singh: Employee cost overall year-to-year, it has gone down, 18% to 15%. Year-to-year, if you see it has gone down. Last financial year, it has gone down by around Rs.65 crores employee cost because we have retirement of around 351 people, and we have inducted around 358. But whatever retirement was in the higher scale, and the induction is in the lower pay scale. Abhay Kumar Behuria: Some of the provision is being made at the end of the year, actual variation, everything. And if you see the overall '24-'25 and '25-'26, there is a reduction of 2%. '24-'25 our employees cost composition of total expenditure it was 18% and this year it is 16%. Brijendra Pratap Singh: FY '27 also further superannuation is around 250 numbers and our recruitment will be also similar kind of thing. And superannuating staff is always on the higher pay scale and the people joining are on the lower pay scale. So similar kind of savings will be there.

Clarifies the trend of declining employee costs due to retirements and new recruitments at lower pay scales, and the expected impact of pay commission from Jan '27.

Asked by Pallav Agarwal from Antique Stock Broking

Chemical Segment Revenue Decline Direct
Brijendra Pratap Singh: Chemical sector, you see our prices has gone down by around $219 compared to last financial year, which has resulted into less revenue of around Rs.2,659 crores. That is the amount of loss we have suffered due to reduction in the spot prices. But we have compensated it by increasing the volume. We have sold around 3.4 lakh tons of excess of alumina by increasing our volume production, which I have told earlier also that we are targeting to increase the volumes. We have increased the volume of around -- production by around 2.5 lakh to 3 lakh tons. So it has given us a additional favourable impact of around Rs.1,714 crores. So net adverse impact of alumina is around Rs.784 crores only in spite of Rs.2,660 crores of adverse impact due to pricing.

Explains the reasons for the revenue decline in the chemical segment, attributing it to lower alumina prices, partially offset by higher volumes.

Asked by Naresh Naiker from Systematix

Raw Material Price Increases (Caustic Soda, CP Coke, HFO) Direct
Brijendra Pratap Singh: See caustic soda prices average '25-'26 was 42,000. It has gone to 45,000. CP Coke '25-'26, it was 53,000. This year, Q1 and Q2, it will be somewhere around 57,000. Aluminium chloride, 1,21,000, it has gone to 1,30,000. HFO has further increased -- HFO and MDO that is the substantial increase which we are seeing. LDO is less and HFO is more from 46,000 to 70,000. So this kind of increase we are seeing in caustic soda, CP Coke, aluminium chloride and HFO.

Provides specific price increases for key raw materials, indicating potential pressure on cost of production in the coming quarters.

Asked by Ashish Kejriwal from Nuvama Wealth Management

3 min read 6 chapters

Detailed narrative

Q4 FY26 Performance Overview and FY26 Highlights

National Aluminium achieved its best-ever physical and financial performance in FY26. Revenue from operations grew 6.28% year-on-year to ₹17,843 crores, up from ₹16,788 crores in FY25. EBITDA increased by 8.72% to ₹8,613 crores, and Profit After Tax (PAT) rose 9.22% to ₹5,816 crores. This robust performance was attributed to dedicated efforts from employees, stakeholder support, and best-ever physical output across all key operational areas.

Production and Sales Volume Growth

The company reported strong volume growth in FY26, with bauxite production increasing by 6% and alumina/calcined alumina production by 11.5%. Cast metal production saw a 2.61% growth. Sales performance was also robust, with alumina sales growing by 30.74% and aluminium metal sales by 2.8%. For FY27, NALCO targets 25 lakh tons of alumina production and sales, and 4.73 lakh tons of metal production, slightly higher than the 4.71 lakh tons in FY26.

Alumina and Aluminium Realizations

Alumina prices experienced a significant decline in FY26, with average realization falling from $580/ton in FY25 to $370/ton in FY26, resulting in a negative impact of ₹2,659 crores. Q4 FY26 alumina realization was $348/ton, with Q1 FY27 expected to average around $320/ton. For FY27, the company anticipates average alumina prices to be in the range of $300-$310/ton. Aluminium metal realization, however, increased from an average of $2,550/ton in FY25 to $2,700/ton in FY26, with Q4 FY26 at $2,767/ton. Current metal prices are around ₹3,500-₹3,600, but are expected to normalize to ₹3,000-₹3,100 on average for FY27.

Capital Expenditure Plans and Strategic Projects

NALCO incurred a capex of ₹2,000 crores in FY26, exceeding its target of ₹1,700 crores. For FY27, the capex is projected to be around ₹4,000 crores, peaking at ₹8,000-₹10,000 crores in FY28. The total investment for the new aluminium smelter (0.5 million tons capacity) and associated power plant is estimated at ₹23,000-₹24,000 crores, with the smelter alone costing ₹17,000-₹18,000 crores. The 5th stream refinery commissioning is set to begin in June 2026, aiming for an additional 2 lakh tons of alumina production. The company is also adding a new 60,000-ton wire rod mill and an MI annealing furnace to enhance value-added product offerings.

Raw Material Costs and Operational Efficiency

The company improved its techno-economic figures, leading to savings in caustic soda, CP Coke, and furnace oil consumption. However, raw material prices are rising, with caustic soda increasing from an FY26 average of ₹42,000/ton to an expected ₹45,000/ton in Q1 FY27. CP Coke is projected to rise from ₹53,000/ton to ₹57,000/ton, and HFO from ₹46,000/ton to ₹70,000/ton. Captive coal production is targeted at 4.8 million tons for FY27, up from 4 million tons in FY26, covering a significant portion of the total requirement.

Joint Ventures and Manpower Management

NALCO has discontinued its Utkarsh JV with Mishra Dhatu Nigam due to unfavorable IRR and market conditions. A new 50-50 JV is being formed with Neyveli Lignite Corporation for a power plant, ensuring coal security. The GNAL JV, which incurred a loss of ₹38 crores in FY26 (down from ₹135 crores in FY25), is expected to turn profitable in FY27. Employee costs decreased by ₹65 crores in FY26 due to retirements of higher-paid staff and recruitment of new employees at lower pay scales, a trend expected to continue despite a 10-15% pay commission impact from January 2027.

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