Rain Industries Limited — Q2 FY25 earnings call

Call held 6 Nov 2024

Management summary

Rain Industries reported a challenging third quarter for FY25, with consolidated revenue and EBITDA declining across all segments. The Carbon segment faced margin pressures from rising raw material costs and declining CTP prices, despite strong CPC volume growth. Advanced Materials saw volume increases but lower realizations, while the Cement segment was significantly impacted by an extended monsoon. Management remains optimistic about future improvements, focusing on margin stabilization, volume enhancement, and strategic investments in new growth areas like battery materials, aiming to reduce the debt-to-EBITDA ratio to 3.0x.

Highlights

  • Consolidated net revenue for Q3 FY25 decreased by 5.72% YoY to 39.06 billion Rupees.

  • Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 0.84 billion Rupees compared to the previous year.

  • Carbon segment revenue declined by 5.38% YoY to 27.81 billion Rupees, with Adjusted EBITDA falling by 523 million Rupees.

  • Advanced Materials segment revenue decreased by 1.52% YoY to 8.45 billion Rupees, and Adjusted EBITDA fell by 122 million Rupees.

  • Cement segment revenue saw a significant 19.2% decline YoY, with Adjusted EBITDA down by 199 million Rupees.

  • Net debt stood at 711 million US dollars, with a net debt to LTM EBITDA ratio of 4.3x, targeted to approach 3.0x in coming quarters.

  • CPC volumes in the Carbon segment were up over 16% QoQ, driven by increased capacity utilization in India.

  • The company plans to enhance volumes in calcination and distillation products throughout 2025 and is investing in a new demonstration plant for battery materials in Canada.

Concerns

  • Margin challenges in Carbon businesses

  • Consolidation and competitive pricing in Indian Cement industry

Key financials

  1. Consolidated Net Revenue ₹39.06 Bn -5.7%YoY
  2. Consolidated Adj. EBITDA Decrease ₹0.84 Bn
  3. Net Debt 711 million us
  4. Net Debt to LTM EBITDA Ratio 4.3×

What they filed

Q1 FY27: revenue up 17.4%, net profit up 310.8% against the same quarter last year.

₹ Cr · quarterly
Line itemQ2 FY25Q3 FY25Q4 FY25Q1 FY26Q2 FY26Q3 FY26Q4 FY26Q1 FY27
Revenue3,934 3,676 3,768 4,401 4,476 +14%4,301 +17%4,521 +20%5,167 +17%
EBITDA216 346 380 629 627 +190%501 +45%697 +83%964 +53%
Net profit-155 -134 -115 83 130 +184%38 +128%158 +237%341 +311%
How to read this

₹ crore, as filed. The percentage beside a figure is the change against the same quarter a year earlier — never the quarter before, which would make every seasonal business look like it collapses and booms each year.

Segment breakdown

Share of Adjusted EBITDA Decrease
₹844 Mn Total
  • Carbon Segment ₹523 Mn 62.0%
  • Cement Segment ₹199 Mn 23.6%
  • Advanced Materials Segment ₹122 Mn 14.5%

Guidance & targets

Safety

  • OSHA safety reporting norms completion Safety · FY24 · High confidence by 2024
    This initiative will enable us to report a total recordable incident rate (TRIR) for each of our three business segments on a consistent, apples-to-apples basis. Additionally, it will enhance our ability to share safety lessons learned, increase employee awareness, and provide learning tools across the entire group. These measures will make RAIN an even safer place to work.

    — Jagan Reddy Nellore, Vice Chairman

Profitability

  • Unit margins stabilization Profitability · approaching 2025 · Medium confidence re-establish
    As we move towards the end of the year, our focus is on re-establishing our unit margins to stabilize our earnings. This step is crucial for achieving our objectives as we approach 2025.

    — Jagan Reddy Nellore, Vice Chairman

  • Advanced Materials Resins business profitability Profitability · through year-end · Medium confidence sustain
    However, we remain confident that the resilience of our Resins business will sustain profitability for the Advanced Materials segment through year-end.

    — Jagan Reddy Nellore, Vice Chairman

Volume

  • Carbon segment volumes (calcination and distillation) Volume · throughout 2025 · Medium confidence enhance
    Our main objective in the Carbon segment is to enhance our volumes in both calcination and distillation products. We aim to achieve this by increasing production and optimizing capacity utilization throughout 2025.

    — Jagan Reddy Nellore, Vice Chairman

  • CPC volumes Volume · Q4 and beyond in 2025 · Medium confidence maintain higher growth level
    We expect CPC volumes to maintain this higher growth level during the fourth quarter and beyond in 2025 due to relaxation in the Indian import restrictions which were in place since 2018.

    — Jagan Reddy Nellore, Vice Chairman

Margin

  • Carbon product margins Margin · during 2025 · Medium confidence return to normalized
    Entering the final quarter of 2024, the strengthening of carbon product prices in China gives us optimism of a potential return to normalized margins during 2025, marking a shift from the last couple of years of declining global industrial output trends.

    — Jagan Reddy Nellore, Vice Chairman

Revenue Mix

  • Aluminium sector revenue contribution Revenue Mix · by the close of 2024 · Medium confidence 43% to 44%

    Previously 42%43% to 44%

    We anticipate a rebound to the usual range of 43% to 44% by the close of 2024.

    — Gerard Sweeney, President of Rain Carbon Inc.

Debt

  • Net debt to EBITDA ratio Debt · next few quarters · High confidence approach 3.0x

    From 4.3x today

    Over the next few quarters, as performance improves and debts paid down, we anticipate this leverage ratio to gradually approach 3.0x.

    — T. Srinivasa Rao, Chief Financial Officer

Risks & concerns

  • Margin challenges in Carbon businesses

    high

    Driven by market competition and unique, situational circumstances, particularly rising tar raw material prices vs. declining CTP prices.

    Management acknowledged

  • Consolidation and competitive pricing in Indian Cement industry

    high

    Smaller regional producers struggling, leading to aggressive pricing strategies and a sharp drop in realizations.

    Management acknowledged

  • Global reduction in tar production

    medium

    Caused by curtailments and closures of certain blast furnace steel mills, leading to decreased supply for distillers.

    Management acknowledged

  • Raw material shortages in Europe

    medium

    Impacting the Advanced Materials segment's profitability and supply scrambling.

    Management acknowledged

  • Uncertainties from war and political tensions globally

    medium

    Creating a challenging economic environment despite some positive signals.

    Management acknowledged

  • Unpredictable market movements

    medium

    As markets stabilize from the highs of 2022 and early 2023, some market indicators still raise concerns.

    Management acknowledged

  • Seasonal and year-end decline in volumes

    low

    Anticipated for the fourth quarter, particularly in Advanced Materials.

    Management acknowledged

Areas of evasion (1)

  • No Q&A session was included in this management presentation transcript, thus transparency regarding analyst questions cannot be assessed.
3 min read 7 chapters

Detailed narrative

Q3 FY25 Consolidated Financial Performance Overview

Rain Industries reported a consolidated net revenue of 39.06 billion Rupees for the third quarter of 2024, marking a 5.72% reduction from 41.43 billion Rupees in the same period of 2023. This downturn was primarily driven by revenue decreases across all segments. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA also saw a decrease of 0.84 billion Rupees compared to the previous year, reflecting the challenging market conditions and margin pressures experienced during the quarter.

Safety Initiatives and Performance

The company concluded Q3 FY25 with one recordable incident and a Total Recordable Incident Rate of 0.20 in its carbon and advanced materials businesses, demonstrating continued improvement. The incident involved a mechanic falling from scaffolding, who has since returned to work. Rain Industries is committed to completing the roll-out of OSHA safety reporting norms in its Cement segment by 2024, aiming to enhance consistent reporting and group-wide safety awareness.

Carbon Segment: Volume Gains Amidst Margin Pressure

The Carbon segment's revenue decreased by 5.38% YoY to 27.81 billion Rupees, with Adjusted EBITDA falling by 523 million Rupees. While Calcined Petroleum Coke (CPC) sales volumes increased by over 16% QoQ due to relaxed Indian import restrictions and higher capacity utilization, Coal Tar Pitch (CTP) sales volumes were down almost 13% QoQ, impacted by customer maintenance outages. The segment faced significant margin challenges from rising tar raw material prices against declining CTP prices, leading to a 21.0% decrease in average blended realization.

Advanced Materials Segment: Mixed Performance with Red Sea Benefit

The Advanced Materials segment reported revenues of 8.45 billion Rupees, a 1.52% decrease YoY, with Adjusted EBITDA falling by 122 million Rupees. Despite a volume increase of 8.8%, primarily from the HHCR plant, average realisations decreased by 9.5% due to falling commodity prices. Volumes for Chemical Intermediates products were down 20%. The segment benefited from 'made-in-Europe' customer preference driven by Red Sea shipping disruptions, particularly for Engineered Products and Resins.

Cement Segment: Impact of Extended Monsoon and Market Consolidation

Rain Industries' Cement segment experienced a substantial 19.2% decline in revenue for Q3 FY25, attributed to an 8.8% fall in realizations and an 11.3% reduction in volumes. This performance was largely due to an extended monsoon season in key markets. The segment's Adjusted EBITDA saw a downturn of 199 million Rupees, also reflecting the broader challenges of significant consolidation and aggressive competitive pricing within the Indian cement industry.

Debt, Liquidity, and Future Leverage Targets

The company concluded the quarter with a gross debt of 952 million US dollars and a net debt of 711 million US dollars. The net debt to LTM EBITDA ratio stood at 4.3x. Management anticipates this leverage ratio will gradually approach 3.0x over the next few quarters as performance improves and debts are paid down. Liquidity remained robust at 469 million US dollars, comprising a 241 million US dollar cash balance and 228 million US dollars in undrawn credit facilities. Approximately 55 million US dollars were allocated for maintenance capital expenditures and plant turnarounds in the first nine months of 2024.

Strategic Outlook and New Growth Avenues

Rain Industries remains optimistic about a potential return to normalized margins in the Carbon segment during 2025 and expects CPC volumes to maintain higher growth. The company is strategically focused on optimizing operations and reducing fixed costs. Looking ahead, Rain Industries announced a new demonstration plant for Energy Storage Materials and Battery Anode Materials in Canada, positioning itself as a significant player in the burgeoning EV and battery markets, leveraging its established expertise in the Chinese battery market.

This is an AI-generated summary of a publicly available earnings call transcript.