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    Rain Industries

    RAINMixed
    Chemicals·6 Nov 2024
    Management Summary

    Rain Industries reported a challenging third quarter for FY25, with consolidated revenue and EBITDA declining across all segments. The Carbon segment faced margin pressures from rising raw material costs and declining CTP prices, despite strong CPC volume growth. Advanced Materials saw volume increases but lower realizations, while the Cement segment was significantly impacted by an extended monsoon. Management remains optimistic about future improvements, focusing on margin stabilization, volume enhancement, and strategic investments in new growth areas like battery materials, aiming to reduce the debt-to-EBITDA ratio to 3.0x.

    Highlights

    8
    • Consolidated net revenue for Q3 FY25 decreased by 5.72% YoY to 39.06 billion Rupees.

    • Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 0.84 billion Rupees compared to the previous year.

    • Carbon segment revenue declined by 5.38% YoY to 27.81 billion Rupees, with Adjusted EBITDA falling by 523 million Rupees.

    • Advanced Materials segment revenue decreased by 1.52% YoY to 8.45 billion Rupees, and Adjusted EBITDA fell by 122 million Rupees.

    • Cement segment revenue saw a significant 19.2% decline YoY, with Adjusted EBITDA down by 199 million Rupees.

    • Net debt stood at 711 million US dollars, with a net debt to LTM EBITDA ratio of 4.3x, targeted to approach 3.0x in coming quarters.

    • CPC volumes in the Carbon segment were up over 16% QoQ, driven by increased capacity utilization in India.

    • The company plans to enhance volumes in calcination and distillation products throughout 2025 and is investing in a new demonstration plant for battery materials in Canada.

    Concerns

    2
    • Margin challenges in Carbon businesses

    • Consolidation and competitive pricing in Indian Cement industry

    What Changed3

    vs Q3 FY25

    Tone shiftGood → MixedGuidance items7 → 8 (+1)Risks discussed5 → 7 (+2)

    Key financials

    Single quarter

    04 metrics
    1. 01Consolidated Net Revenue$39.06B-5.7%YoY
    2. 02Consolidated Adj. EBITDA Decrease$0.84B
    3. 03Net Debt711 Mn
    4. 04Net Debt to LTM EBITDA Ratio4.3 x

    Segment breakdown

    • Carbon Segment523 Mn62.0%
    • Advanced Materials Segment122 Mn14.5%
    • Cement Segment199 Mn23.6%
    Donut· Share of Adjusted EBITDA Decrease

    Guidance & targets

    8
    CategoryTargetPriority
    Safety
    OSHA safety reporting norms completion
    by 2024
    High
    Profitability
    Unit margins stabilization
    re-establish
    Medium
    Profitability
    Advanced Materials Resins business profitability
    sustain
    Medium
    Volume
    Carbon segment volumes (calcination and distillation)
    enhance
    Medium
    Volume
    CPC volumes
    maintain higher growth level
    Medium
    Margin
    Carbon product margins
    return to normalized
    Medium
    Revenue Mix
    Aluminium sector revenue contribution
    43% to 44%
    Medium
    Debt
    Net debt to EBITDA ratio
    approach 3.0x
    High

    Risks & concerns

    8
    RiskSeverity

    Margin challenges in Carbon businesses

    Driven by market competition and unique, situational circumstances, particularly rising tar raw material prices vs. declining CTP prices.Management acknowledged

    high

    Global reduction in tar production

    Caused by curtailments and closures of certain blast furnace steel mills, leading to decreased supply for distillers.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Raw material shortages in Europe

    Impacting the Advanced Materials segment's profitability and supply scrambling.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Seasonal and year-end decline in volumes

    Anticipated for the fourth quarter, particularly in Advanced Materials.Management acknowledged

    low

    Uncertainties from war and political tensions globally

    Creating a challenging economic environment despite some positive signals.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Consolidation and competitive pricing in Indian Cement industry

    Smaller regional producers struggling, leading to aggressive pricing strategies and a sharp drop in realizations.Management acknowledged

    high

    Unpredictable market movements

    As markets stabilize from the highs of 2022 and early 2023, some market indicators still raise concerns.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Areas of Evasion(1)

    • No Q&A session was included in this management presentation transcript, thus transparency regarding analyst questions cannot be assessed.
    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q3 FY25 Consolidated Financial Performance Overview

    Rain Industries reported a consolidated net revenue of 39.06 billion Rupees for the third quarter of 2024, marking a 5.72% reduction from 41.43 billion Rupees in the same period of 2023. This downturn was primarily driven by revenue decreases across all segments. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA also saw a decrease of 0.84 billion Rupees compared to the previous year, reflecting the challenging market conditions and margin pressures experienced during the quarter.

    02

    Safety Initiatives and Performance

    The company concluded Q3 FY25 with one recordable incident and a Total Recordable Incident Rate of 0.20 in its carbon and advanced materials businesses, demonstrating continued improvement. The incident involved a mechanic falling from scaffolding, who has since returned to work. Rain Industries is committed to completing the roll-out of OSHA safety reporting norms in its Cement segment by 2024, aiming to enhance consistent reporting and group-wide safety awareness.

    03

    Carbon Segment: Volume Gains Amidst Margin Pressure

    The Carbon segment's revenue decreased by 5.38% YoY to 27.81 billion Rupees, with Adjusted EBITDA falling by 523 million Rupees. While Calcined Petroleum Coke (CPC) sales volumes increased by over 16% QoQ due to relaxed Indian import restrictions and higher capacity utilization, Coal Tar Pitch (CTP) sales volumes were down almost 13% QoQ, impacted by customer maintenance outages. The segment faced significant margin challenges from rising tar raw material prices against declining CTP prices, leading to a 21.0% decrease in average blended realization.

    04

    Advanced Materials Segment: Mixed Performance with Red Sea Benefit

    The Advanced Materials segment reported revenues of 8.45 billion Rupees, a 1.52% decrease YoY, with Adjusted EBITDA falling by 122 million Rupees. Despite a volume increase of 8.8%, primarily from the HHCR plant, average realisations decreased by 9.5% due to falling commodity prices. Volumes for Chemical Intermediates products were down 20%. The segment benefited from 'made-in-Europe' customer preference driven by Red Sea shipping disruptions, particularly for Engineered Products and Resins.

    05

    Cement Segment: Impact of Extended Monsoon and Market Consolidation

    Rain Industries' Cement segment experienced a substantial 19.2% decline in revenue for Q3 FY25, attributed to an 8.8% fall in realizations and an 11.3% reduction in volumes. This performance was largely due to an extended monsoon season in key markets. The segment's Adjusted EBITDA saw a downturn of 199 million Rupees, also reflecting the broader challenges of significant consolidation and aggressive competitive pricing within the Indian cement industry.

    06

    Debt, Liquidity, and Future Leverage Targets

    The company concluded the quarter with a gross debt of 952 million US dollars and a net debt of 711 million US dollars. The net debt to LTM EBITDA ratio stood at 4.3x. Management anticipates this leverage ratio will gradually approach 3.0x over the next few quarters as performance improves and debts are paid down. Liquidity remained robust at 469 million US dollars, comprising a 241 million US dollar cash balance and 228 million US dollars in undrawn credit facilities. Approximately 55 million US dollars were allocated for maintenance capital expenditures and plant turnarounds in the first nine months of 2024.

    07

    Strategic Outlook and New Growth Avenues

    Rain Industries remains optimistic about a potential return to normalized margins in the Carbon segment during 2025 and expects CPC volumes to maintain higher growth. The company is strategically focused on optimizing operations and reducing fixed costs. Looking ahead, Rain Industries announced a new demonstration plant for Energy Storage Materials and Battery Anode Materials in Canada, positioning itself as a significant player in the burgeoning EV and battery markets, leveraging its established expertise in the Chinese battery market.

    This is an AI-generated summary of a publicly available earnings call transcript. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an endorsement. inve.money is not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.