Triveni Turbine Limited — Q3 FY25 earnings call

Call held 3 Feb 2025

Management summary

Triveni Turbine delivered a record-breaking Q3 FY25, characterized by all-time high revenue and EBITDA margins driven by a strong export mix. While domestic order inflows remained subdued during the quarter, the company's total order book reached a record high, bolstered by a significant breakthrough in CO2-based energy storage technology. Management remains bullish on international demand and aftermarket growth, despite ongoing incubation losses in the US market.

Highlights

  • Highest ever quarterly revenue of ₹5.03 billion, up 17% YoY

  • Record quarterly EBITDA of ₹1.31 billion with margins expanding 270 bps to 26.1%

  • Profit After Tax (PAT) grew 36% YoY to ₹926 million

  • Record closing order book of ₹18.19 billion, an increase of 15% YoY

  • Export sales surged 31% YoY to ₹2.5 billion, now contributing 49% of total sales

  • Board approved a 200% interim dividend (₹2 per equity share)

  • Secured a landmark ₹2.9 billion order for a CO2-based energy storage system from NTPC

  • 9M FY25 revenue reached a record ₹14.7 billion, up 23% YoY

Key financials

  1. Revenue ₹503 Cr +17%YoY
  2. EBITDA Margin 26.1%
  3. PAT ₹92.6 Cr +36%YoY
  4. Order Book ₹1,819 Cr +15%YoY
  5. Order Inflow ₹526 Cr 0%YoY

What they filed

Q1 FY27: revenue up 15.1%, net profit down 25.4% against the same quarter last year.

₹ Cr · quarterly
Line itemQ2 FY25Q3 FY25Q4 FY25Q1 FY26Q2 FY26Q3 FY26Q4 FY26Q1 FY27
Revenue469 441 490 345 479 +2%584 +32%602 +23%397 +15%
EBITDA109 99 119 77 119 +9%136 +37%103 −13%51 −34%
Net profit90 121 94 67 96 +7%95 −21%79 −16%50 −25%
How to read this

₹ crore, as filed. The percentage beside a figure is the change against the same quarter a year earlier — never the quarter before, which would make every seasonal business look like it collapses and booms each year.

Segment breakdown

Share of Revenue
₹510 Cr Total
  • Product Segment ₹330 Cr 64.7%
  • Aftermarket Segment ₹180 Cr 35.3%

Guidance & targets

Capex

  • Total Capex over next 2 years Capex · next 2 years · High confidence ₹120 - 150 crores

    Previously ₹30 - 40 crores → ₹120 - 150 crores

    it would be more than our historic ₹30 - ₹40 crore of capex, but it is well within a range of somewhere in the region of, I would say, ₹120 - ₹150 crore over the next couple of years.

    — Nikhil Sawhney, Vice Chairman and MD

Other

  • CO2 Energy Storage Cost Parity Target Other · Medium Term · Medium confidence $120,000 - $125,000 per MW hour

    From $200,000 per MW hour today

    Current cost is somewhere in the region about $200,000 a MW hour. Our attempt would be to get this to somewhere in the region of about $120,000 to $125,000 per MW hour.

    — Nikhil Sawhney, Vice Chairman and MD

Profitability

  • US Market Incubation Loss Profitability · FY 25 · High confidence > ₹20 crores
    Like I said in the previous call that we would be incurring a loss in this market in excess of about ₹20 crore (₹200 million), which is fully factored into not only the nine-month results, but will be into the full-year results.

    — Nikhil Sawhney, Vice Chairman and MD

Margin

  • Aftermarket Growth Rate Margin · Future Quarters · High confidence Faster than product growth
    the Aftermarket segment is a growth segment for us. It will grow faster than our product growth segments.

    — Nikhil Sawhney, Vice Chairman and MD

Risks & concerns

  • Subdued Domestic Order Booking

    medium

    Domestic order booking was largely flat YoY, and the domestic outstanding order book declined by 22%.

    Both acknowledged

  • Intense Competitive Intensity in Domestic Market

    medium

    Management noted that competitive intensity has gone up as the total market size for required demand has shrunk.

    Management acknowledged

  • US Market Incubation Losses

    low

    Company expects to lose over ₹20 crore in the US market this fiscal year as it builds infrastructure and certifications.

    Management acknowledged

Areas of evasion (2)

  • Specific market-wise breakup of export revenues
  • Micro-details of US investment and client capacity

Q&A highlights

2 direct, 1 evasive
Profitability of the new CO2-based NTPC order Direct
The fact is that this is not an immensely profitable order as this has been taken in the short term... it will not be dilutive to the Company's earnings as we forecasted.

Clarifies that the breakthrough order is strategic for technology validation rather than immediate high margins.

Asked by Ravi Swaminathan

Domestic market weakness and sector-wise outlook Direct
In Q3 alone in the domestic side, we saw around 59% YoY growth on the enquiry pipeline... we are optimistic in Q4 as on today, things are looking more progressive.

Explains the disconnect between subdued domestic orders and a surging enquiry pipeline, suggesting a potential rebound.

Asked by Ravi Swaminathan

US Market Investment and Capacity Evasive
You're asking for very micro details. So unfortunately, I'm not going to be able to answer that.

Management is protective of specific competitive details regarding their US expansion strategy despite confirming the loss magnitude.

Asked by Amit Anwani

2 min read 5 chapters

Detailed narrative

Record Financial Performance Driven by Exports

Triveni Turbine achieved its highest-ever quarterly revenue of ₹5.03 billion, a 17% YoY increase. This growth was primarily fueled by a 31% surge in export sales, which now account for 49% of total revenue. EBITDA margins expanded significantly by 270 basis points to 26.1%, resulting in a record quarterly EBITDA of ₹1.31 billion and a 36% jump in PAT to ₹926 million.

Breakthrough in CO2-Based Energy Storage

The company secured a landmark ₹2.9 billion (₹290 crore) order from NTPC for a 160-MWh long-duration energy storage system (LDES) using CO2-based technology. While management admits this initial order is not 'immensely profitable,' it serves as a critical strategic entry into a high-growth green energy segment. They aim to achieve cost parity with lithium-ion batteries, targeting a reduction from $200,000 to $120,000-$125,000 per MWh.

Domestic Market Subduedness vs. Surging Enquiries

Domestic order booking remained flat YoY, and the domestic outstanding order book fell 22% to ₹6.4 billion. However, management highlighted a 75% YoY growth in the domestic enquiry pipeline for the nine-month period. They attribute the current lull to a 'mixed bag' of sector performance but are optimistic about a rebound in Q4 FY25, particularly in Process Cogeneration, Steel, and Oil & Gas.

Aggressive Capex for R&D and Capacity

To support its record order book of ₹18.19 billion and new product lines, Triveni is significantly increasing its capex. Management guided for ₹120-150 crore in capex over the next two years, a substantial jump from the historic ₹30-40 crore annual run rate. This investment will focus on adding manufacturing bays in Bangalore and building advanced R&D testing infrastructure for CO2 turbines.

US Market Incubation and Global Aftermarket Strategy

The company is intentionally incurring a loss of over ₹20 crore in the US market this year to build its service network and certifications. Despite these short-term costs, management views the US as a 'key market' for FY26. Meanwhile, the Aftermarket segment continues to be a high-margin growth engine, with turnover reaching a record ₹1.8 billion in Q3, up 22% YoY.

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