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    TVS Supply

    TVSSCSGood
    Services·12 Nov 2024
    Management Summary

    TVS Supply Chain Solutions reported robust Q2 and H1 FY25 results, driven by strong segmental growth and significant new business wins. The company achieved an 11% YoY revenue growth for both periods, with PBT turning positive. Management highlighted the ISCS segment's strong margins and the ongoing turnaround of the Network Solutions segment, aiming for run-rate profitability by H2 FY25 despite macroeconomic headwinds like the Red Sea situation.

    Highlights

    8
    • Q2 FY25 consolidated revenue reached ₹2,512.9 crores, marking an 11% YoY growth.

    • H1 FY25 consolidated revenue also grew by 11% YoY to ₹5,552.3 crores.

    • Profit Before Tax (PBT) for Q2 FY25 was ₹17.9 crores, with H1 FY25 PBT at ₹31.6 crores, reflecting a turnaround from a loss in the prior year.

    • The Integrated Supply Chain Solutions (ISCS) segment grew 6.2% YoY in Q2, achieving an EBITDA margin of almost 11%.

    • The Network Solutions (NS) segment demonstrated strong growth of 17.2% YoY and 4.6% QoQ in Q2.

    • Business development contributed ₹280 crores in Q2 FY25 and ₹526 crores in H1 FY25.

    • A significant multi-year contract in North America worth over ₹2,200 crores was secured, with an expected annual billing of over USD 30 million from Q2 FY26.

    • PBT margins improved by 100 basis points compared to the same period last year.

    Concerns

    1
    • Red Sea Situation Impact on Freight Forwarding

    What Changed2

    vs Q3 FY25

    Guidance items9 → 14 (+5)Risks discussed5 → 6 (+1)
    Key financials

    Metrics

    7

    Periods

    2

    Headline

    2
    • H1 FY25 Revenue
      ₹5,552.3 Cr
      YoY+11%
    • H1 FY25 PBT
      ₹31.6 Cr

    Q2 FY25

    5
    • Revenue
      ₹2,512.9 Cr
      YoY+11%QoQ0%
    • PBT
      ₹17.9 Cr
    • Other Income
      ₹28.6 Cr
    • Material Costs
      ₹434.3 Cr
    • Employee Benefit Expense
      ₹576.2 Cr
      QoQ0%

    Segment breakdown

    Q2 FY25 Revenue GrowthH1 FY25 Revenue Growth
    Integrated Supply Chain Solutions (ISCS)6.2%7.2%
    Network Solutions (NS)17.2%16%
    Heatmap· 2 shared metrics

    Guidance & targets

    14
    CategoryTargetPriority
    Margin
    ISCS Margin
    10% to 10.5%
    Medium
    Margin
    NS Margin Exit Rate
    4.5%
    Medium
    Margin
    NS Margin Long-term
    7%
    Medium
    Profitability
    IFM Segment Profitability
    Run rate profitability
    High
    Profitability
    PBT Margin Vision
    4% (USD 100 million)
    Medium
    Profitability
    Profit Run Rate Improvement
    50 to 100 basis points improvement
    Medium
    Revenue
    Company Revenue Growth
    Double digit, mid-teens
    Medium
    Revenue
    ISCS Business Growth
    12%, 13%
    Medium
    Revenue
    India Business Revenue
    Marginal improvement, flat YoY
    Low
    Revenue
    North America Contract Annual Billing
    USD 30+ million
    High
    Revenue
    North America Contract Full Benefit
    N/A (timing)
    High
    Revenue
    Profitable Revenue Addition
    ₹1,000 crores to ₹1,200 crores
    Medium
    Debt
    Gross Debt
    ₹900 to ₹950 crores
    Medium
    Debt
    Interest Cost
    ₹18 crores
    Medium

    Risks & concerns

    7
    RiskSeverity

    Red Sea Situation Impact on Freight Forwarding

    Continuing diversions, longer voyages, increased fuel consumption, and running costs, adding ₹80 crores revenue with no margin.Management acknowledged

    high

    US Dock Workers' Strike Impact

    Three-day strike impacted 36 US ports, causing routine clearance delays.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Macroeconomic Challenges

    Ongoing challenges impacting overall business environment.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Inflation and Wage Increases in UK

    Inflation, minimum wage increases, and energy inflation impacting the IFM business.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Slower-than-anticipated India Strategy / China Plus One Materialization

    Velocity of opportunities from 'China plus one' or 'India strategy' not as high as anticipated.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Stagnant Auto Sector (CV, Passenger Vehicle)

    Commercial vehicle and passenger vehicle segments are flat to damp, expected to pick up in next 2-3 years.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Areas of Evasion(1)

    • Exact duration of the large North America contract due to confidentiality.

    Q&A highlights

    3

    “The first quarter was more to do with the macro. I would say the macro didn't significantly change, but we also took some significant correction in our business mix. So we exited some of, I would say, not so profitable revenue items in this quarter. So hopefully we'll get back to hitting the trajectory from Q4.”

    Reveals challenges in the India ISCS segment, including macro factors and strategic exits of unprofitable contracts, with a projected turnaround by Q4.

    asked by Jainam Shah

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q2 & H1 FY25 Financial Performance Overview

    TVS Supply Chain Solutions reported a consolidated revenue of ₹2,512.9 crores for Q2 FY25, marking an 11% year-on-year growth, while remaining flat quarter-on-quarter. For the first half of FY25, consolidated revenue grew by 11% YoY to ₹5,552.3 crores. The company achieved a Profit Before Tax (PBT) of ₹17.9 crores in Q2 FY25 and ₹31.6 crores for H1 FY25, indicating a progressive turnaround from a loss in the corresponding previous year. PBT margins improved by 100 basis points YoY.

    02

    Segmental Performance and Profitability

    The Integrated Supply Chain Solutions (ISCS) segment continued its strong performance, growing 6.2% YoY in Q2 and 7.2% in H1, with EBITDA margins reaching almost 11%. The Network Solutions (NS) segment showed impressive growth, increasing 17.2% YoY and 4.6% QoQ in Q2, and 16% in H1. This growth was primarily driven by healthy volume in the forwarding business and higher ocean freight rates, despite the NS segment's margin dipping to 2.3% in Q2.

    03

    Robust Business Development and Pipeline

    Business development remained a key growth driver, contributing ₹280 crores in Q2 FY25 and ₹526 crores in H1 FY25. A significant multi-year transformational contract with a large industrial customer in North America, valued at over ₹2,200 crores, was secured, with an expected annual billing of over USD 30 million from Q2 FY26. The company's pipeline of new opportunities remains strong, presenting an annualized revenue opportunity in excess of ₹4,500 crores.

    04

    Network Solutions Segment Turnaround Strategy

    The Integrated Final Mile (IFM) segment, a part of Network Solutions, is undergoing a turnaround, with management expecting it to achieve run-rate profitability by the end of H2 FY25 (Q4 FY25). The company aims to improve the overall NS segment margin from 2.3% in Q2 to an exit rate of 4.5% by Q4 FY25, with a long-term goal of reaching a sustainable 7% margin in the later part of next calendar year. This will be supported by cost reduction measures and pricing initiatives.

    05

    Navigating Macroeconomic Headwinds

    The company acknowledged ongoing macroeconomic challenges, including the Red Sea situation, which led to carrier diversions, longer voyages, and increased fuel consumption, adding ₹80 crores of revenue with no margin. A three-day dock workers' strike in US ports also impacted operations. Despite these headwinds, management expressed confidence in their ability to sustain growth momentum and profitable growth in the coming quarters.

    06

    Profitability Targets and Debt Management

    TVS SCS has a vision to achieve a 4% PBT margin (equivalent to USD 100 million) on a USD 2.5 billion revenue base in the next three years. They aim for a sequential profit run rate improvement of 50 to 100 basis points every four quarters. Regarding debt, gross debt is projected to be around ₹900-950 crores by FY25 end, with interest costs expected to remain stable at approximately ₹18 crores for the next couple of quarters.

    07

    Strategic Focus and Technology Adoption

    The company's strategic focus includes profitable revenue growth, with a belief in adding ₹1,000-1,200 crores of revenue in a profitable manner. TVS SCS is also actively deploying AI, with pilot projects for new business bids and polarized light damage detection for beverage clients. They are also implementing an auction price and target bidding module for Courier Alliance in the UK, emphasizing state-of-the-art IT-enabled solutions.

    This is an AI-generated summary of a publicly available earnings call transcript. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an endorsement. inve.money is not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.