Detailed Narrative
Resilient Margins Amidst Raw Material Disparity
Vardhman maintained an EBITDA margin of 15.5% despite Indian cotton prices trading at a significant premium to international futures. Management successfully navigated this by importing duty-free cotton before the window closes on December 31, 2025. However, they warned that if the 11% import duty is reinstated and CCI maintains high prices, Indian spinners will face severe competitiveness issues against Vietnam and Indonesia.
Aggressive 30% Capacity Expansion
The company is nearing the completion of a ₹500 crore expansion program. This includes a ₹300 crore synthetics plant (15 lakh meters) and a ₹200 crore line expansion in Madhya Pradesh. While the synthetics plant will start with low utilization (20-30% in Q4), the total initiative is projected to increase overall production capacity by 30%, positioning the company for a demand recovery.
US Tariff Headwinds and Sourcing Diversification
The 50% US import duty has caused a 20-25% reduction in order volumes from US-based customers and a 30-45 day delay in order placements. To mitigate this, Vardhman is supporting strategic customers by sharing tariff costs and diversifying into non-US markets like the EU, UK, Australia, and Canada. Management noted that Indian exporters are viewing this disruption as temporary but are being forced to readjust pricing to retain clients.
Acrylics Segment Under Pressure
The Vardhman Acrylics subsidiary is facing intense pressure, currently just breaking even at the EBITDA level. This is attributed to a 70% price premium of acrylic over polyester, leading to significant fiber substitution. Additionally, cheap imports from Thailand have forced the company to lower prices to maintain 100% capacity utilization, sacrificing margins to protect market share.
Financial Outlook and Depreciation Headwinds
Other income saw a sharp drop this quarter due to a ₹25-26 crore reversal of previous forex gains as the rupee fluctuated. Looking ahead, investors should factor in higher depreciation costs, which are expected to rise from ₹114 crores to approximately ₹130 crores per quarter as new projects go live. Management remains 'banking upon' a US trade deal by November to trigger a broader recovery in the sector.