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    ADC
    Earnings call· Mar 2026(Q1 FY26)

    AGREE REALTY Q1 FY26 earnings call ADC

    Apr 22, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Agree Realty Q1 FY26 — Record Capital Raise and Strong Acquisition Volume

    Agree Realty delivered a strong Q1 FY26, marked by record capital raising and substantial investment across its growth platforms, reinforcing a fortress balance sheet. Despite an unpredictable macro environment, the company maintains a robust pipeline and reiterates its full-year AFFO guidance, focusing on high-quality retail tenants and strategic capital deployment. The inaugural financial supplement enhances transparency, reflecting confidence in the portfolio's performance and future drivers.

    Highlights

    5
    • Invested nearly $425 million across three external growth platforms, including $403 million in acquisitions, representing the largest quarterly acquisition volume since 2022.

    • Raised approximately $660 million of forward equity through ATM, resulting in $2.3 billion total liquidity and $1.4 billion outstanding forward equity.

    • Pro forma net debt to recurring EBITDA was 3.2x, providing significant financial flexibility with no material debt maturities until 2028.

    • Core FFO per share increased 8.1% year-over-year to $1.13, and AFFO per share increased 7.9% year-over-year to $1.14.

    • Lease recapture rate was over 104% on 876,000 square feet of GLA, and occupancy remained strong at 99.7%.

    Concerns

    3
    • Treasury stock method dilution is anticipated to impact full-year 2026 AFFO per share by $0.02 to $0.04, up from $0.01 in prior guidance due to higher share price and increased forward equity.

    • Macro backdrop remains highly unpredictable, with significant uncertainty that seems to change by the hour, influencing investment pace.

    • The company is watching 1 to 2 assets for potential credit and occupancy loss, though no material impact is anticipated for the year.

    Guidance & targets

    5
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    AFFO per share
    $4.54 to $4.58
    high materiality
    High
    Treasury Stock Method (TSM) dilution impact on AFFO per share
    $0.02 to $0.04
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Credit and occupancy loss
    25 to 50 basis points
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Development and DFP commencements
    $250 million
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Investment and disposition volume
    parameters provided
    medium materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    30
    Total investment volume
    $425 million
    Q1 FY26

    Includes acquisitions, development, and developer funding.

    Forward equity shares sold
    8.7 million
    Q1 FY26

    Part of capital markets activity.

    Forward equity net proceeds
    $658 million
    Q1 FY26

    Represents a company record for equity raised in a quarter.

    Total liquidity
    $2.3 billion
    Q1 FY26

    Includes forward equity availability, revolving credit facility, term loan, and cash on hand.

    Hedged capital
    $1.6 billion
    Q1 FY26

    Includes outstanding forward equity and forward starting swaps.

    Outstanding forward equity
    $1.4 billion
    Q1 FY26

    Represents a company record.

    Pro forma net debt to recurring EBITDA
    3.2x
    Q1 FY26

    Pro forma for the settlement of all outstanding forward equity.

    Total debt to enterprise value
    under 29%
    Q1 FY26

    Portfolio-wide metric.

    Fixed charge coverage ratio
    4.2x
    Q1 FY26

    Includes preferred dividend.

    Delayed draw term loan drawn
    $250 million
    Q1 FY26

    Fixed rate inclusive of forward starting swaps.

    Forward starting swaps
    $250 million
    Q1 FY26

    Effectively fixes the base rate for a future issuance.

    Core FFO per share
    $1.138.1% increase YoY
    Q1 FY26

    Year-over-year increase compared to Q1 last year.

    AFFO per share
    $1.147.9% increase YoY
    Q1 FY26

    Highest quarterly AFFO per share growth since Q2 2022.

    Percentage rent
    $2.4 millionup from $1.6 million YoY
    Q1 FY26

    Compared to $1.6 million in Q1 last year.

    Monthly cash dividend per common share
    $0.2623.6% increase YoY (annualized)
    Q1 FY26

    Declared for January, February, and March. Equates to an annualized dividend of over $3.14 per share.

    Dividend payout ratio
    69%
    Q1 FY26

    As a percentage of AFFO per share.

    Monthly cash dividend per common share (subsequent)
    $0.2674.3% increase YoY (annualized)
    April 2026

    Announced subsequent to quarter end. Equates to an annualized dividend of over $3.20 per share.

    GLA under new leases, extensions, or options
    876,000
    Q1 FY26

    Proactively addressing upcoming lease maturities.

    Leases maturing
    29
    Remainder of FY26

    Represents 90 basis points of annualized base rent.

    Annualized base rent maturing
    90down 60 bps QoQ, down 260 bps YoY
    Remainder of FY26

    Down quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

    Pharmacy exposure
    3.5%
    Q1 FY26

    As a percentage of annualized base rent, now outside top 10 sectors (previously over 40%).

    Total properties
    2,756
    Q1 FY26

    Spanning all 50 states.

    Ground leases
    261
    Q1 FY26

    Comprising over 10% of annualized base rent.

    Investment-grade exposure
    65%
    Q1 FY26

    As a percentage of annualized base rent. Does not impute shadow investment-grade ratings.

    Occupancy rate
    99.7%up 50 bps YoY
    Q1 FY26

    Portfolio-wide.

    Development/DFP projects commenced
    2
    Q1 FY26

    Total anticipated cost for these projects.

    Development/DFP projects under construction
    9
    Q1 FY26

    Aggregate anticipated cost for these projects.

    Development/DFP projects completed
    4
    Q1 FY26

    Total investment for these completed projects.

    Publicly traded tenants
    77%
    Q1 FY26

    Based on annualized base rent (ABR).

    Leases with fixed rental escalators
    91%
    Q1 FY26

    Underlying lease structure of the portfolio.

    Industry KPIs

    7
    MetricValueDetails
    Credit loss ratio14 basis pointsbps
    Same store rent revenue growthjust north of 1%%
    Investment volume and initial cash yield$403 millionUSD
    Rent recapture rate on renewals re leasing104%%
    Sourced opportunity volume and selectivityrobust
    Weighted average lease term on new investments11.3 yearsyears
    Blended acquisition cap rate and spread vs cost7.1%%

    Orderbook & backlog

    3
    Development and DFP pipeline (commenced projects)$18 millionQ1 FY26

    Total anticipated cost for 2 new projects commenced during the quarter.

    Development and DFP pipeline (under construction)$71 millionQ1 FY26

    Aggregate anticipated cost for 9 projects under construction during the quarter.

    Development and DFP commencements target$250 millionFY26

    Intermediate target for annual commencements, with a chance to hit it this year.

    Deals & partnerships

    3
    Hobby LobbySale leaseback of corporately owned stores.

    Hobby Lobby is a privately owned, market leader in craft and hobby space with a strong balance sheet. This was a unique transaction to remove real estate from their balance sheet.

    VariousAcquisition of 100 properties across 3 external growth platforms.$403 million

    Includes a Home Depot, 5 bound leases in Pennsylvania and Maryland, a portfolio of 11 Sherwin-Williams stores, several Aldis, and 3 Walmarts in Georgia and South Carolina.

    VariousSale of 7 properties.$11 million

    Included a Jiffy Lube and Dutch Brothers that were part of a grocery portfolio acquisition last year. These were non-core assets recycled for better real estate and credit.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Macroeconomic unpredictability and capital markets volatilityOngoing

    10-year UST vacillating by 10%, 15% up and down

    Mitigation: Fortress balance sheet, $2.3 billion total liquidity, $1.6 billion hedged capital, proactive hedging with forward starting swaps, no material debt maturities until 2028.

    Treasury Stock Method (TSM) dilutionFull-year 2026

    $0.02 to $0.04 impact on FY26 AFFO per share (up from $0.01)

    Mitigation: Impact is dependent on stock price; company will continue to evaluate capital raising alternatives.

    Potential credit and occupancy lossFull-year 2026

    Watching 1 to 2 assets; FY26 guidance assumes 25 to 50 basis points (Q1 actual was 14 bps)

    Mitigation: Portfolio continues to perform well; no material impact anticipated. Proactive asset management and high-quality tenant base.

    Consumer pullback in discretionary spendingOngoing

    Median household income of $125,000 trading down; casual dining and discretionary sectors impacted

    Mitigation: Focus on leading retailers with scale and value propositions, benefiting from the 'trade-down effect' in a K-shaped economy.

    What to watch in Q2 FY26

    4

    Development and DFP activity ramp-up

    Q2 FY26
    Current2 new projects commenced ($18M anticipated cost), 9 projects under construction ($71M anticipated cost) in Q1 FY26
    TargetMeaningful ramp in Q2 and Q3 FY26

    Why it matters

    Indicates the company's ability to execute on its growth strategy and achieve its intermediate target of $250 million in annual commencements.

    Our development in DFP pipelines continue to grow significantly, and we expect development in DFP activity to meaningfully ramp in the second and third quarters, including several additional projects that commenced subsequent to quarter end.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Given $1.6 billion in hedged capital, why isn't investment guidance being raised, and does macro uncertainty affect partner decision-making?

    The pipeline is robust, but the pace of investment depends on the unpredictable macro environment and the company's selective approach. Macro uncertainty does not deter tenants; the decision to not raise guidance is unilateral, reflecting caution amidst global events.

    I just didn't think it was appropriate to raise investment guidance at this time in the midst of a war with JD Vance sitting on the runway.

    asked by Jana Galan · answered by Joey Agree

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Balance Sheet Strength and Liquidity

    Agree Realty significantly bolstered its financial position in Q1 FY26, raising approximately $660 million in forward equity through its ATM program. This contributed to a total liquidity of $2.3 billion and over $1.6 billion in hedged capital, including a record $1.4 billion of outstanding forward equity. The company's pro forma net debt to recurring EBITDA stood at a low 3.2x, providing substantial flexibility to execute its strategy regardless of capital markets volatility, with no material debt maturities until 2028.

    02

    External Growth Platforms and Pipeline

    The company demonstrated an active start to the year, investing nearly $425 million across its three external growth platforms, with $403 million allocated to acquisitions, marking the largest quarterly acquisition volume since 2022. The development and developer funding (DFP) pipelines are robust, with 2 new projects commenced and 9 under construction during the quarter, representing anticipated costs of $18 million and $71 million, respectively. Management expects development and DFP activity to ramp up meaningfully in the second and third quarters.

    03

    Portfolio Quality and Tenant Strategy

    Agree Realty's portfolio, comprising 2,756 properties across all 50 states, maintains a high occupancy rate of 99.7% and 65% investment-grade exposure. The company emphasizes a focus on leading retailers with strong balance sheets and operating discipline, which are leveraging their scale in a 'K-shaped economy' to expand their brick-and-mortar footprints. Strategic capital recycling was evident with the disposition of 7 non-core properties for $11 million at a weighted average cap rate of 6.8%, approximately 300 basis points inside their acquisition cap rate.

    04

    Capital Markets Activity and Hedging Strategy

    Beyond the record ATM raise, the company drew $250 million on its delayed draw term loan at a fixed rate of 4.02% and entered into $250 million of forward starting swaps to fix the base rate for a contemplated 10-year unsecured debt issuance at roughly 4.1%. This proactive hedging provides critical visibility into the intermediate cost of capital amidst geopolitical and macro uncertainty🌐. The company has $100 million remaining capacity on its delayed draw term loan and will evaluate a debt issuance later in the year.

    05

    Consumer Trends and Retailer Performance

    Management observed a continued 'trade-down effect' among consumers, particularly those with a median household income around $125,000, who are shifting spending towards value-oriented retailers like Walmart and TJX. This trend is exacerbated by rising gasoline prices. While the company noted strong same-store sales performance for a small group of percentage-rent leases, it cautioned against drawing broad conclusions. Discretionary sectors, especially casual dining, are seeing consumers pull back.

    06

    Inaugural Financial Supplement

    Agree Realty launched its inaugural financial supplement, designed to provide investors and analysts with a thorough picture of its portfolio and financials. This document includes enhanced disclosures on non-GAAP financial metrics and key performance indicators such as recapture rate, credit and occupancy loss, and same-store rent growth, aiming to centralize key information and highlight the high-quality nature of the company's tenancy and portfolio.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.