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    AEE
    Earnings call· Jun 2026(Q2 FY26)

    AMEREN Q2 FY26 earnings call AEE

    Jul 31, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Ameren Q2 FY26 — Strong Infrastructure Investment and Data Center Growth Drive Performance

    Ameren delivered strong Q2 FY26 results, driven by strategic infrastructure investments and significant economic development, particularly in data centers. The company reaffirmed its full-year EPS guidance and is on track to update its long-term growth expectations in Q3, incorporating accelerated sales trends and generation needs. Management remains focused on balancing growth with affordability and reliability for customers.

    Highlights

    5

    • Q2 FY26 EPS increased to $1.13 per share, up from $1.01 per share in Q2 FY25, driven by infrastructure investments.

    • Reaffirmed FY26 EPS guidance of $5.25 to $5.45 per share, reflecting solid execution during the first half of the year.

    • Signed 2.8 GW of Electric Service Agreements (ESAs) in Missouri, with Google and Amazon announcing a combined $25 billion in planned data center investments.

    • Placed 350 MW of new solar generation in service, including the 300 MW Split Rail Renewable Energy Center, one month ahead of schedule.

    • Secured all competitive long-range transmission projects in their Illinois service territory within MISO LRTP Tranche 1 and Tranche 2 portfolios.

    Concerns

    2

    • Higher O&M expense due to increased reliability-focused tree trimming and energy center maintenance efforts.

    • An unrealized gain of $0.08 per share from equity investments in innovative infrastructure funds, which contributed to Q2 earnings, is not expected to be recurring.

    Guidance & targets

    8
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Adjusted EPS
    $5.25 to $5.45
    high materiality
    High
    Long-term EPS growth rate
    Near upper end of 6% to 8% CAGR
    high materiality
    High
    Rate base growth
    10.6% CAGR
    high materiality
    High
    Ameren Missouri annual electricity sales increase
    60% increase
    high materiality
    High
    Missouri electric rate review PSC order
    PSC order by May 2027
    medium materiality
    High
    Ameren Illinois revenue adjustment ICC decision
    ICC decision in December
    medium materiality
    High
    Ameren Illinois electric distribution grid investment plan ICC decision
    ICC decision by December
    medium materiality
    High
    Equity needs
    Approximately $4 billion
    high materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    6
    Retail sales (volume) growth
    1%increased
    TTM through June

    Total normalized retail sales over the trailing 12 months through June increased approximately 1%, primarily driven by the commercial customer class.

    O&M expense
    higher
    YTD

    Partially offsetting positive earnings drivers this year, we have increased our reliability-focused tree trimming and energy center maintenance efforts, which are reflected in the higher O&M expense at Ameren Missouri.

    Equity sold forward
    $600 million
    2026 needs

    To satisfy our 2026 equity needs, in 2025 we sold forward approximately $600 million of equity, representing approximately 6.4 million shares, which we expect to issue near the end of this year.

    Equity sold forward
    $1.2 billion
    YTD 2026

    So far this year, to address a portion of our prospective equity needs, we have sold forward approximately $1.2 billion of common stock under our at-the-market program.

    Projected base rate savings for retail customers
    $21 millioncompared to what they otherwise would have paid
    over 2 years

    Specifically, we estimate Ameren Missouri's customers will realize approximately $21 million in projected base rate savings over the 2 years following the rate review compared to what they otherwise would have paid.

    Unrealized gain from equity investments
    $0.08
    H1 2026

    These are investments we've made over time, equity investments in innovative infrastructure funds and had an unrealized gain this year, which was beneficial in the first half. It's not something that we expect to be recurring in nature.

    Industry KPIs

    7
    MetricValueDetails
    Adjusted operating EPS$1.13per share
    Multi year capital plan$71 billionUSD
    Dividend per share growth—
    Regulatory rate base growth10.6%CAGR
    Allowed ROE equity layer rate cases—
    Combined electric gas framework mandates—
    Major regulated project construction progress350 MWsolar

    Orderbook & backlog

    6
    Missouri Electric Service Agreements (ESAs)2.8 GWQ2 FY26

    Signed ESAs, including Google and Amazon projects. Sales expected to materialize in H2 2027.

    Missouri projects with completed interconnection studies4 GWQ2 FY26

    Projects beyond signed ESAs, representing additional potential.

    Missouri construction agreements600 MWQ2 FY26

    Construction agreements not yet converted to ESAs.

    Approved/under construction generation resources2,250 MWQ2 FY26

    Simple cycle gas, solar, and battery storage resources for 2027 and 2028.

    New solar and storage resources (CCN filed)1,000 MWMay 2026

    Expected to serve customers in 2028 and 2029.

    West Alton natural gas combined cycle facility (CCN filed)2.1 GWJuly 2026

    Expected in service in 2031.

    Deals & partnerships

    3
    GooglePlanned data center investment in Missouri service territory$25 billion combined with Amazon

    Part of 2.8 GW of electric service agreements signed earlier this year. Expected to create thousands of construction jobs and generate billions in local tax revenues. Committed millions through community benefit agreements.

    AmazonPlanned data center investment in Missouri service territory$25 billion combined with Google

    Part of 2.8 GW of electric service agreements signed earlier this year. Expected to create thousands of construction jobs and generate billions in local tax revenues. Committed millions through community benefit agreements.

    MISODevelopment of competitive long-range transmission projects

    Won opportunity to develop WIIL and STIW LRTP Tranche 2 projects in Illinois. Also submitted joint bids for 2 remaining Tranche 2.1 projects in Iowa, with winning bids expected by November.

    Capital programs

    3
    Investment pipelineunderway$71 billion

    Benefit: support safety, reliability, and resiliency of the energy grid

    The pipeline now includes more than $71 billion of investment opportunity through 2035, including planned investment associated with the competitive LRTP projects recently won and is subject to change later this year as we update guidance on our third quarter call following our Missouri Integrated Resource Plan filing.

    Energy infrastructure investmentsunderway
    Period spend: $2.6 billion
    Start: H1 2026

    Benefit: maintain and enhance quality of service, reducing customer outage frequency and duration

    We invested more than $2.6 billion in energy infrastructure during the first 6 months of the year to maintain and enhance our quality of service.

    Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution Grid Investment Planproposed$2.75 billion
    Start: 2028

    Stakeholder engagement is ongoing with respect to the $2.75 billion electric distribution grid investment plan we have proposed for the 2028 through 2031 period.

    Risks & headwinds

    2
    Increased O&M expenseYTD

    reflected in the higher O&M expense

    Mitigation: increased reliability-focused tree trimming and energy center maintenance efforts

    Non-recurring earnings contributionH1 2026

    $0.08 per share

    Mitigation: Management noted it's not expected to be recurring in nature.

    What to watch in Q3 FY26

    5

    Updated Long-Term EPS Growth Outlook

    Q3 FY26 earnings call (November)
    CurrentNear upper end of 6% to 8% CAGR (2026-2030)
    TargetRevised long-term EPS growth rate

    Why it matters

    This will incorporate updated sales trends, capital investment forecasts, and financing plans, significantly impacting the investment thesis.

    We remain on track to file an update to Ameren Missouri's Integrated Resource Plan in late September, incorporating these perspectives. And we plan to update our sales, capital investment forecast, financing plans and long-term earnings growth expectations on our third quarter earnings call.

    Q&A highlights

    8

    Seeking clarity on the progress and timeline for converting the 4 GW of projects with completed interconnection studies into more formalized commitments, given strong anecdotal momentum.

    Marty Lyons confirmed 2.8 GW of ESAs signed, with 4 GW of projects having completed interconnection studies and an additional 600 MW of construction agreements. He highlighted Google and Amazon's groundbreaking ceremonies for data centers as key milestones. Michael Moehn added that the upcoming IRP update in October will provide greater clarity on demand scenarios and probabilities.

    “we have 4 gigawatts of projects with completed interconnection studies beyond that. And there's an additional 600 gigawatts of construction agreements which haven't been converted yet to ESA. So there's greater potential out there.”

    asked by Julien Dumoulin-Smith · answered by Martin Lyons

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Economic Development and Large Load Growth

    Ameren's Missouri territory is experiencing robust economic development, highlighted by 2.8 GW of signed Electric Service Agreements (ESAs) and an additional 4 GW of projects with completed interconnection studies. Google and Amazon announced $25 billion in planned investments for data centers, which are part of the signed ESAs and are already under construction. These large load customers will pay 100% of power and infrastructure costs, contributing to long-term cost benefits for other customers.

    02

    Generation Portfolio Expansion

    The company is actively expanding its generation capacity, with 350 MW of new solar generation placed in service in 2026, including the 300 MW Split Rail Renewable Energy Center ahead of schedule. An additional 2,250 MW of simple cycle gas, solar, and battery storage are approved or under construction for 2027-2028. Ameren has also filed CCN requests for nearly 1,000 MW of solar/storage for 2028-2029 and a 2.1 GW natural gas combined cycle facility for 2031, with over 5 GW of new resources under development.

    03

    Transmission Infrastructure Investments

    Ameren continues to make robust investments in its region's transmission infrastructure to ensure reliability and efficiency, expecting strong investment levels to support new large loads and connect generation resources. The company has won all competitive long-range transmission projects in its Illinois service territory within MISO LRTP Tranche 1 and Tranche 2 portfolios and has submitted bids for two remaining Tranche 2.1 projects in Iowa.

    04

    Missouri Rate Review and Customer Affordability

    Ameren Missouri filed a rate review requesting a $343 million revenue increase to recover infrastructure investment costs. The request includes projected data center revenues to lower retail customer bills by an estimated $21 million over two years and establishes a new income-eligible discount rate. The company emphasizes maintaining rates below national and Midwest averages and providing top-quartile reliability.

    05

    Illinois Regulatory Matters

    Ameren Illinois updated its request for a $31 million revenue adjustment for 2025 costs under the electric multiyear rate plan, with an ICC decision expected in December. Stakeholder engagement is ongoing for a proposed $2.75 billion electric distribution grid investment plan for 2028-2031, with an ICC decision anticipated by December and a subsequent rate review filing in Q1 2027.

    06

    Financing Strategy and Credit Ratings

    The company maintains a strong financial position, addressing approximately $4 billion in equity needs from 2026-2030. This includes $600 million sold forward in 2025 for 2026 and $1.2 billion sold forward year-to-date 2026 via an at-the-market program. S&P and Moody's reaffirmed stable outlooks and credit ratings (BBB+/Baa1), reflecting a commitment to a strong balance sheet.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.