Ameren (AEE) Q2 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Seeking clarity on the progress and timeline for converting the 4 GW of projects with completed interconnection studies into more formalized commitments, given strong anecdotal momentum.

Marty Lyons confirmed 2.8 GW of ESAs signed, with 4 GW of projects having completed interconnection studies and an additional 600 MW of construction agreements. He highlighted Google and Amazon's groundbreaking ceremonies for data centers as key milestones. Michael Moehn added that the upcoming IRP update in October will provide greater clarity on demand scenarios and probabilities.

“we have 4 gigawatts of projects with completed interconnection studies beyond that. And there's an additional 600 gigawatts of construction agreements which haven't been converted yet to ESA. So there's greater potential out there.”

asked by Julien Dumoulin-Smith · answered by Martin Lyons

Inquiring about the decision to self-perform the 2.1 GW combined cycle plant, the risks involved, and the subcontracting strategy, given the state of the E&C market.

Michael Moehn explained that securing long-lead time materials (turbines) and working with OEMs is progressing well. He noted that a traditional EPC structure is difficult to obtain in the current market, so they are pursuing a partnership approach with local manufacturers, suppliers, and an owner engineer, with appropriate risk sharing. More details will be shared in the fall.

“the structure is not a traditional EPC. But honestly, given where the market is today, it's difficult to get those. And so, there'll be appropriate risk sharing in there, but we feel good about where we are through the negotiations at this point”

asked by Julien Dumoulin-Smith · answered by Michael Moehn

Seeking more color on the $0.08 earnings contribution from innovative energy technology investments and whether it's expected to persist.

Marty Lyons clarified that these were unrealized gains from equity investments in innovative infrastructure funds, which were beneficial in the first half but are not expected to be recurring.

“these are investments we've made over time, equity investments in innovative infrastructure funds and had an unrealized gain this year, which was beneficial in the first half. It's not something that we expect to be recurring in nature.”

asked by Andrew Kadavy · answered by Martin Lyons

Asking for an explanation of how the $21 million in projected base rate savings for customers from data center revenues is generated and if it will increase as loads ramp.

Michael Moehn stated that the $21 million is associated with data center revenues modestly ramping in H1 2027 and would continue to grow as projects ramp throughout 2028 and 2029, depending on the rate review process.

“it's associated with those data center revenues that are ramping -- beginning to ramp modestly there in the first half of '27. So it's really trying to capture that piece of it. And then it certainly would continue to grow as we continue to ramp those projects throughout '28 and '29”

asked by Andrew Kadavy · answered by Michael Moehn

Inquiring about the potential range of outcomes for the updated EPS growth guidance in Q3, key milestones, and differentiation between long-term and 5-year growth rates.

Marty Lyons reiterated the current 10.6% rate base growth and 6-8% EPS growth (near upper end). He noted that current sales trends (60% increase by end of 2029) and CapEx trends lean positive for incremental growth. The updated IRP in September, incorporating sales and generation, along with updated financing assumptions, will inform the Q3 EPS growth outlook. He expects the update to lean positive and provide foundational elements for a 10-year model.

“our sales trends as well as our CapEx trends, lean positive in terms of incremental growth. And we're seeing really good momentum, as we talked about today. This year, 2.8 gigawatts of ESA signed, we're seeing groundbreakings, we're seeing construction begin, we're really seeing some positive momentum in terms of that growth and the expectation of incremental sales.”

asked by Carly Davenport · answered by Martin Lyons

Asking how the financing strategy will evolve for the fall update, specifically considering the significant load ramp starting in 2027, the lower Moody's downgrade threshold, and cash flow benefits.

Lenny Singh emphasized a balanced approach to debt and equity, focusing on maintaining a strong balance sheet and credit metrics. He mentioned using the ATM program and potentially hybrid securities. He confirmed that a broader update on financing needs and plans will be provided in the Q3 call, following the IRP and sales assumption updates.

“we expect to remain flexible, leveraging all of the tools in the toolbox, but certainly a disciplined approach around how we approach financing, maintain that strong balance sheet, strong credit metrics and really think about what's the lowest reasonable cost of capital.”

asked by Richard Sunderland · answered by Leonard Singh

Seeking clarification on whether the 6.2% sales CAGR includes the 2.8 GW of recent ESAs or if the ESAs represent incremental upside.

Marty Lyons clarified that the 6.2% sales CAGR was a planning assumption from the prior IRP, anticipating some large load growth (1.2 GW by 2030). The 2.8 GW of signed ESAs represent upside to that baseline expectation. The upcoming IRP will update sales growth based on signed ESAs and further growth expectations.

“the 2.8 gigawatts that we've signed represents upside or an increase to those expectations. And so again, as we roll into the IRP this fall, we'll again be updating our sales growth expectations based upon signed ESAs plus expectations around growth beyond that.”

asked by Sophie Karp · answered by Martin Lyons

Asking if the 2.1 GW gas combined cycle plant can be accelerated and what the lead time is for additional dispatchable generation beyond that, given the need for higher load.

Marty Lyons stated that the 2.1 GW combined cycle plant, recently filed, cannot be accelerated from its 2031 in-service date. Michael Moehn added that they are looking at pulling forward other resources like solar, batteries, fuel cells, and smaller peaking assets, as well as maximizing existing sites. Marty also highlighted efforts to enhance existing generation assets for greater availability during peak periods.

“There's really not an opportunity to accelerate that, as you mentioned. That's something we plan to have go in service by the end of 2031.”

asked by Stephen D’Ambrisi · answered by Martin Lyons