Inve US ▾
AFAFL

Aflac (AFL) Q2 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Jun 2026 (Q2 FY26)· Financials· Aug 7, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Aflac Q2 FY26 — Solid Profitability and Strategic Portfolio Repositioning

Aflac delivered solid Q2 FY26 results, driven by strong profitability in Japan and growth in the U.S. group business, despite a decline in Japan sales against tough prior-year comparisons and lower variable investment income. Management continues to focus on strategic capital deployment, including significant share repurchases, and is actively repositioning its investment portfolio for improved returns, while navigating inflationary pressures and product mix shifts.

Highlights

6
  • Aflac Incorporated adjusted EPS increased 1.1% year-over-year to $1.80 (excluding FX).

  • Aflac Japan pretax margin increased 230 basis points year-over-year to 34.3%.

  • Aflac U.S. sales increased 2.6% year-over-year in Q2, with group business (especially voluntary products and network dental/vision) showing momentum.

  • Aflac U.S. maintained a solid pretax margin of 20.9%.

  • Returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in Q2 ($983M share repurchases, $309M dividends) and $2.6 billion for the first 6 months.

  • Repositioned $4.8 billion of the investment portfolio, expected to increase net investment income by over $50 million annually.

Concerns

5
  • Aflac Japan sales declined 5.6% to JPY 11 billion in Q2 due to strong prior-year comparison.

  • Aflac U.S. net earned premium growth rate expected to be just below the 3% to 6% guidance range for FY26.

  • Variable investment income ran $72 million or $0.11 per diluted share below long-term expectations.

  • Adjusted book value per share (excluding FX remeasurement) decreased 4.1%.

  • Japan benefit ratio expected to be at the high end of the 60% to 63% guidance range for FY26.

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Aflac Japan sales
Exceed 2025 sales
medium materiality
High
Aflac Japan benefit ratio
High end of 60% to 63%
high materiality
High
Aflac U.S. net earned premium growth rate
Just below 3% to 6% range
medium materiality
High
Aflac U.S. net earned premium CAGR
3% to 6%
medium materiality
High
Dividend increases
Extend record of dividend increases
high materiality
High
Annualized Net Investment Income increase from portfolio repositioning
Over $50 million
medium materiality
High
Aflac U.S. sales
Stronger second half, heavily weighted in Q4
medium materiality
High

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
Aflac Japan
Sales declined in Q2 due to strong prior-year comparison, but H1 sales were up 7%. Pretax margin improved significantly. Benefit ratio was higher than expected due to mix of lapsing policies. Expense ratio improved despite inflation.
Sales (H1 FY26): up 7%Net earned premiums (yen terms): -3.7% YoYUnderlying earned premiums (yen terms, ex-reinsurance, paid-up, DPL): -1.4% YoYBenefit ratio: 64%Benefit ratio (YTD): 63.4%Expense ratio: 20.2%Adjusted net investment income (yen terms): -2.9% YoYPremium persistency: 92.7%
JPY 11 billion-5.6%—34.3%
Aflac U.S.
Sales and net earned premiums grew. Pretax margin remained solid. Benefit ratio increased due to incurred group disability claims. Strong performance in group products, especially Dental & Vision.
Net earned premium: up 2.3%Premium persistency: 79.4%Premium persistency: up 20 bps YoYBenefit ratio: 49.5%Benefit ratio: up 220 bps YoYExpense ratio: 36.1%Expense ratio: down 20 bps YoYAdjusted net investment income: up 0.5% YoYGroup Life Absence Disability and Dental & Vision sales: up 7.1% YoYDental and Vision property sales: up 47% in Q2Voluntary benefits sold alongside Dental & Vision: $1.07 per $1 of D&V
—2.6%—20.9%

AFL operating KPIs by quarter

AFL operating KPIs stated on its earnings calls, by fiscal quarter
KPI Dec 2024 Q4 FY24 Mar 2025 Q1 FY25 Jun 2025 Q2 FY25 Sep 2025 Q3 FY25 Dec 2025 Q4 FY25 Mar 2026 Q1 FY26Change vs prior quarter
Policy retention rate Aflac Japan
93.4% Persistency remained solid at 93.4%, which was unchanged year-over-year and in line with our expectations. Source: earnings call transcript
93.8% Persistency remained solid at 93.8%, which is up 40 basis points year-over-year and in line with our expectations. Source: earnings call transcript
93.7% Persistency remained solid at 93.7%, which was up approximately 40 basis points year-over-year, in line with our expectations. Source: earnings call transcript
93.3% Persistency remained solid year-over-year and in line with our expectations at 93.3%. Source: earnings call transcript
93.1% Persistency remained solid year-over-year and in line with our expectations at 93.1%. Source: earnings call transcript
92.8% While persistency was down, it remains strong and in line with our expectations at 92.8%. Source: earnings call transcript
-0.3 pt
Policy retention rate US
79.3% Persistency increased 70 basis points year-over-year to 79.3%. Source: earnings call transcript
79.3% Net earned premium was up 1.8%, persistency increased 60 basis points year-over-year to 79.3%. Source: earnings call transcript
79.2% Persistency increased 50 basis points year-over-year to 79.2%. Source: earnings call transcript
79% More importantly, we maintained strong premium persistency of 79% and increased net earned premiums 2.5%. Source: earnings call transcript
79.2% It remains strong at 79.2%. Source: earnings call transcript
79.3% More importantly, we maintain strong premium persistency of 79.3% and increased net earned premium of 3.5% for the quarter. Source: earnings call transcript
+0.1 pt

Operating figures the company stated on at least two of the calls shown, checked against each call's transcript. Click a figure to read the sentence. A dash means it was not stated that quarter.

Product announcements

ProductTypeDetails
Refreshed Tsumitasuupdate
Anshin Palettelaunch

Risks & headwinds

Strong prior-year sales comparison in Japan Q2 FY26

Aflac Japan sales declined 5.6% to JPY 11 billion in Q2 FY26.

Mitigation:Continued promotion of third sector protection and innovative first sector savings-type products (Tsumitasu, Anshin Palette).

Variable investment income below expectations Q2 FY26

$72 million or $0.11 per diluted share below long-term expectations.

Mitigation:Active repositioning of $4.8 billion of the portfolio to capture higher yields and strengthen quality, expected to increase NII by over $50 million annually.

Increased incurred group disability claims in U.S. Q2 FY26

U.S. total benefit ratio came in at 49.5%, 220 basis points higher than Q2 2025.

Mitigation:Not explicitly stated, but implies ongoing monitoring and management of claims.

Inflationary pressures in Japan Current

Japan inflation running close to 3%.

Mitigation:Strong expense management, resulting in a 40 bps YoY decrease in expense ratio to 20.2% in Q2. Monitoring Middle East situation for potential upward pressure on operating expenses and crude oil prices.

Mix impact of lapsation on Japan benefit ratio FY26

Japan benefit ratio for H1 FY26 was 63.4%, now expected at high end of 60-63% range for FY26.

Mitigation:Expectation that lapse and reissue activity will normalize as Miraito Cancer Insurance matures (now over a year old), leading to stabilization of persistency and benefit ratio.

What to watch in Q3 FY26

Aflac Japan sales growth

Next quarter (Q3 FY26) and full year FY26.
Current Q2 sales down 5.6% YoY, H1 sales up 7% YoY.
Target Exceed 2025 sales for FY26.

Why it matters

Indicates the effectiveness of new product launches and distribution strategies in Japan, a key market.

As a result, we continue to expect Aflac Japan sales to exceed 2025.

Find out whether AFL delivers this. Inve re-checks your case every morning.

Q&A highlights

Details on the $4.8B portfolio repositioning and future opportunities.

Management explained they harvested FX gains from the dollar portfolio to offset losses on older bonds (JGBs and dollar bonds) across Japan, U.S., and Bermuda. They see significant future opportunities due to the higher rate environment and will continue to pursue them.

“What we were able to do this quarter was harvest gains from foreign currency on our dollar portfolio in Aflac Japan and use that to offset losses on some of those older bonds, both in our U.S. dollar portfolio, but also our JGB portfolio.”

asked by Ryan Krueger · answered by Bradley Dyslin

2 min read 6 chapters

Detailed narrative

Investment Portfolio Repositioning

Aflac actively repositioned $4.8 billion of its investment portfolio in Q2 FY26, primarily in Aflac Japan but also touching U.S. and Bermuda. This strategic move involved harvesting foreign currency gains from the dollar portfolio to offset losses on older bonds, including JGBs.

The initiative aims to improve net investment income by over $50 million annually on a run-rate basis, while also managing taxes, liquidity, and asset-liability management with limited capital impact.

Japan First Sector Strategy

Aflac Japan's first sector product, Tsumitasu, is playing a strategic role in expanding the customer base, particularly among younger generations seeking asset accumulation in yen. While Aflac remains primarily third-sector oriented, Tsumitasu contributes to concurrent sales of cancer and medical insurance, exceeding an initial target of 25% for cross-selling.

The first sector in-force currently represents less than 20% of the total in-force, providing diversification benefits without significantly increasing overall risk.

U.S. Group Business Momentum

Aflac U.S. is experiencing strong momentum in its group business, with Group Life Absence Disability and Dental & Vision products showing significant growth. Group Life Absence Disability and Dental & Vision sales were up 7.1% in Q2, with earned premiums for these group products increasing by 13%.

The Dental and Vision property alone saw a 47% increase in Q2, heavily driven by the agency force, and is effectively driving voluntary benefits sales alongside it, with $1.07 of voluntary benefits sold for every dollar of Dental and Vision.

Japan Benefit Ratio Dynamics

The Aflac Japan benefit ratio for the first half of FY26 was higher than expected, leading to a revised full-year expectation at the high end of the 60% to 63% range. This is primarily attributed to a shift in the mix of lapsing policies, with fewer older policies (which have significant reserve builds) lapsing and more recently issued policies (with lower reserve builds) lapsing.

This mix impact, driven by product launches like Miraito, is expected to normalize as newer products mature, supporting the full-year guidance.

Reinsurance Capacity Expansion

Aflac has internally expanded its ceding limit for Japanese business to Bermuda from 10% of U.S. GAAP assets to 30% of FSA reserves. This move, shared with external constituents, aims to reduce risk, improve balance sheet efficiency, and generate higher ROE for Aflac Japan and the group.

While future transactions will be lumpy and not quarterly, management views this as a significant long-term opportunity to leverage competitive advantages and improve the company's risk and return profile.

Inflation and Expense Management in Japan

Despite inflationary pressures in Japan, with inflation running close to 3%, Aflac Japan successfully managed its expense ratio down by 40 basis points year-over-year to 20.2% in Q2. This strong performance is attributed to effective expense management, even as the revenue base is slightly shrinking.

The company expects the long-term expense ratio range to remain 20% to 23%, with current performance at the lower end of this range.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.