Detailed Narrative
Strategic Evolution Towards Alternatives
AMG's earnings profile has significantly evolved, with alternatives now constituting over 60% of total earnings, a substantial increase from 50% 18 months ago and 35% five years ago. This proportion is expected to reach 70% in the near term. This shift is driven by accelerating client demand in secondary strategies across private markets, infrastructure, absolute return strategies, and tax-aware investing, leading to enhanced fee rates and margin expansion at key affiliates.
Strong Organic Growth and Net Inflows
The company achieved $13 billion in net inflows for Q2 FY26, with alternative strategies contributing a record $29 billion. Over the last 12 months, alternatives attracted $100 billion in net inflows, primarily from private markets fundraising ($8 billion in Q2) and liquid alternatives ($21 billion in Q2). This strong flow profile underscores the success of AMG's strategic focus on secular growth areas and is fundamentally changing the composition of its business and earnings profile.
Disciplined Capital Allocation
AMG continued its elevated pace of share repurchases, deploying $189 million in Q2 and $375 million in H1 FY26, which reduced the economic share count by 1.8 million shares year-to-date. Concurrently, the company invested $175 million in new and existing affiliates during H1 FY26, including BBH Credit Partners, HighBrook Investors, and an incremental investment in Garda Capital Partners. Management emphasizes a disciplined approach, targeting high-teens returns on new investments.
Outlook and Long-Term Growth Targets
For Q3 FY26, management expects adjusted EBITDA of $315 million to $325 million and economic EPS between $8.43 and $8.71, representing approximately 40% growth year-over-year. The company projects a long-term compound annual growth rate in economic EPS of 15% to 20%, supported by a robust balance sheet, approximately $1 billion in annual after-tax free cash flow, and a strong pipeline of new investment opportunities.
Tax-Aware and Liquid Alternatives Momentum
Tax-aware investing, primarily through AQR's long-short equity strategies, represents over 10% of AMG's earnings and is viewed as a durable, structural shift in individual investor behavior. Liquid alternatives, excluding tax-aware strategies, achieved over 15% organic growth over the past 12 months. This strong demand across institutional and retail clients is driven by the need for diversification, liquidity, and less correlated return streams in complex market environments.