Aemetis (AMTX) Q2 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

What is the potential uplift from the likely positive revision to the 45Z CI score, and what is the potential catch-up value for past molecules?

Management expects significant uplift from 45Z updates for dairy RNG and ethanol, but the exact dairy RNG calculation is unclear (range from $15.20 to over $75 per MMBtu). Ethanol CI improvement could be $6M-$24M annually, with a potential 18-month look-back catch-up. They are also working to get 45Z value for CO2 reuse, estimated at $12M-$18M annually.

“But the calculator is currently generating about $15.20. We have posted on our presentation showing that we could earn over $75 per MMBtu at negative 375. So the range is rather wide about what we should see per MMBtu.”

asked by Derrick Whitfield · answered by Eric McAfee

What are the thoughts on the recovery of LCFS credit prices and the proliferation of the Canadian Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) market?

The LCFS market is in deficit due to increased renewable diesel capacity hitting feedstock and truck capacity constraints, while required credits increase annually. LCFS credit production is declining. The company is actively pursuing CFR qualification, noting significantly better values for gas sold to Canada.

“The second very real constraint is that over 80% of the diesel in California about a 4 billion-gallon market is already renewable diesel. So if you look back over the last 36 months and say, well, we're going to double the amount of renewable diesel used in California, you run out of trucks.”

asked by Derrick Whitfield · answered by Eric McAfee

Given LCFS credit prices have gone from $55 to $80 per ton, how high do you think they can go?

The cap is over $270 per credit. Management expects the program to continue generating deficits, and as excess credits are depleted, traders will likely pay higher prices to avoid the cap. They believe the oil industry is trying to convince regulators not to enforce rules, but the program is likely to continue as planned.

“Excellent. Well, the cap is 270. So we know the regulators plus $200 plus the cost living index starting in 2016 is a calculator. We fully expect that the oil industry is doing what it can to try to convince California regulators not to enforce the rules.”

asked by Edward Woo · answered by Eric McAfee

Is the start-and-stop nature of India operations impacting the IPO process, and what is the timeline for checking off this item?

The start-and-stop operations have an impact, but a larger impact comes from global crude oil price increases and the overall stock market conditions in India. The IPO market experienced a bottleneck in early 2026 but is now showing robustness. The company is prepared for the IPO, which will happen subject to market conditions.

“The third stop of our operation certainly has an impact, no question at all about that. But having an equal if maybe even a stronger impact is the global increase in the price of crude oil as a result of the Iranian war and the politician U.S. and India in which the U.S. now kind of controls India's purchases from Russia of crude oil.”

asked by Amit Dayal · answered by Eric McAfee

Is supplying capacity to private parties in India a new development, or has it always been part of the business?

It is a new and very large development. Due to government-controlled diesel price increases, commercial customers can now buy biodiesel from Aemetis at a 3% to 5% discount to pump prices, offering significant savings and other benefits.

“It's a very good question. It is a new development. It is a very large market. The price of diesel in India has been controlled by the government. It's a part of their policy and with the inability to -- for Russia to supply cheap crude oil into India, the India government has been forced to push up the price of diesel several times in the last few months.”

asked by Amit Dayal · answered by Eric McAfee

Is the company comfortable with its liquidity position, especially with current debt on the balance sheet?

The company has a positive relationship with its private credit provider, Third Eye Capital. Approximately $120 million of funding has an effective interest rate of about 5%. The goal is to use large cash events, such as 45Z catch-ups, to pay down and refinance debt to longer terms and lower interest rates.

“We have had a very positive and productive working relationship with our private credit provider Third Eye Capital since 2018. And just within the last couple of months, had a visit by all the principles in the firm and a very productive multi-day project tour and update and we are looking forward to continued a very successful relationship with Third Eye Capital.”

asked by Amit Dayal · answered by Eric McAfee

Will the MVR system's impact on gross margin be more from revenue gains or cost takeouts?

Approximately $8 million of the $32 million annual cash flow from MVR comes from natural gas cost reduction (80% reduction). The remaining $24 million comes from 45Z and LCFS value, which is expected to increase as LCFS credits rise, increasingly rewarding the energy efficiency project.

“About $8 million of the $32 million, so approximately 1 quarter comes from the petroleum natural gas cost reduction every month. that we have to currently endure. So we're reducing that fossil natural gas by about 80%. The 450 and LCFS value adds up to about $24 million a year.”

asked by David Storms · answered by Eric McAfee