ASML (ASML) Q3 FY25 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Can you elaborate on the positive news flow reducing uncertainty, especially given the EUR 5 billion orders? Does this provide more visibility on 2026 capacity needs or EUV layers?

Christophe Fouquet explained that positive news on AI infrastructure creates a positive backlog of opportunity, but doesn't immediately translate to orders. The broadening of the customer base for AI chips (both logic and DRAM) is a significant positive, ensuring market capacity is not supply-limited. While it's too early to fully quantify the impact on the next few years, a partial effect is expected in 2026.

“The second one is also quite important. So I think we mentioned the fact that we see now that more customers will benefit from the AI opportunity. I think it's important for many reasons. The first one being that in order to respond to this huge demand of this huge amount of good news on AI infrastructure, you need to make sure that the market capacity will be high enough.”

asked by Francois-Xavier Bouvignies · answered by Christophe Fouquet

Is the expected significant decline in China sales for 2026 conservatism, or do you have a full picture? Given deep UV lead times, is this beyond Q1 2026?

Christophe Fouquet reiterated that the high level of business in China over the past 2-3 years was abnormal and that 2026 is expected to return to a more reasonable level. Roger Dassen added that the prior high sales were due to eating into backlog and underserving the market, and the current assessment is based on understanding the mainstream logic market dynamics and customer dialogues.

“I think on China, we have been very consistent that we thought that the level of business in the last 2, 3 years was very high and in no way normal. So I think we have been experiencing a very high cycle in China, especially through the last couple of years. And again, our expectation and the visibility we have right now is that next year, we go back to more reasonable business.”

asked by Francois-Xavier Bouvignies · answered by Christophe Fouquet

There's a view that transitioning to 4 F-squared DRAM architecture is negative for EUV layer count. Can you clarify this?

Christophe Fouquet stated that ASML does not expect the number of EUV layers to drop with the 4 F-squared transition. In fact, they expect the number of EUV layers to continue to grow as the roadmap progresses, and the more complex 4 F-squared structure also benefits advanced deep UV. He concluded that 4 F-squared is not bad news for ASML.

“The short answer is no. If we look at the number of EUV layer going from 6 F-squared to 4 F-squared, we do not expect the number of layers to drop. In fact, as 4 F-squared road map continues after the transition, we, in fact, expect the number of EUV layers to continue to grow.”

asked by Sreekrishnan Sankarnarayanan · answered by Christophe Fouquet

Given recent announcements of massive HBM capacity expansion (e.g., 900k WSPM), which would imply a significant increase in EUV tools needed, does ASML have enough capacity for Low-NA EUV by 2030 to satisfy this potential demand?

Christophe Fouquet stated that ASML is cautious about translating large announcements into concrete capacity needs but emphasized the importance of a broadening customer base to prevent supply limitations. He confirmed ASML has been preparing for growth and has invested in long-lead-time items, expressing no concern about meeting demand. Roger Dassen added that timely heads-up from customers is still critical for shorter lead-time items.

“we have said for a few quarters that we have been preparing for growth. So we were following those dynamic. And I think we know now that EUV most probably will be stronger next year. So we've been preparing for that. We have, as you know, also worked on longer-term capacity. So we continue to track basically the market carefully, having in mind that we want to be able to follow the demand. So I would say we don't have any concern there at this point of time.”

asked by Didier Scemama · answered by Christophe Fouquet

Given no High-NA orders for 2+ quarters, does this mean a lumpy revenue ramp for High-NA, potentially with quarters of zero revenue in 2027/2028, as you work through backlog and await qualification data?

Christophe Fouquet confirmed that ASML is working through its healthy High-NA backlog, covering R&D, qualification, and insertion systems. The next wave of orders is expected in H2 2026 and beyond, once qualification data confirms tool maturity. Shipments are expected in 2028 and beyond. He noted that discussions with customers continue to assess progress and likelihood of insertion, allowing ASML to prepare for demand.

“for the rest, the next wave of order, we expect to happen basically when the data coming out of the qualification can confirm basically that the maturity of the tool is there. I think when it comes to performance, most probably we have passed that milestone. And yes, I think as we discussed last quarter, we expect that to happen most probably towards the second half of next year and after that.”

asked by Tammy Qiu · answered by Christophe Fouquet

How is High-NA ahead of Low-NA at a similar stage of introduction, and where are you in the journey to 2028 maturity?

Christophe Fouquet explained that High-NA's maturity benefits from using the same source as Low-NA, which was the biggest detractor for Low-NA's early availability. High-NA's source availability matches Low-NA's performance. The remaining work is on the platform itself, which is expected to be in very good shape within 12-18 months. He stated there are no showstoppers for High-NA maturity.

“a major difference between low-NA and High-NA is that when we looked at Low-NA maturity back at the time we were ramping the product, the availability was really dragged down for many years by the source performance. The source was by far the biggest detractor of our maturity on the Low-NA tool. Now I think you're fully aware that the source of High-NA is exactly the same as the one on Low-NA.”

asked by Timm Schulze-Melander · answered by Christophe Fouquet