ASML HOLDING NV ASML

ASML noted significant positive news flow regarding AI infrastructure investments, which supports demand in leading-edge logic and advanced DRAM. This momentum is extending to a broader customer base, ensuring market capacity can meet demand. While the impact on 2026 is expected to be partial, the company anticipates continued growth in EUV layers for both logic and DRAM, driven by AI and migration from multi-patterning deep UV to single exposure EUV. This broader customer engagement is seen as crucial to avoid supply limitations in the AI chip market.

The company expects a significant decline in China's total net sales in 2026, following very strong business in 2024 and 2025. This is attributed to the normalization of demand after a period of high sales driven by eating into backlog and underserving the market. The deep UV business is specifically expected to be down in 2026 due to these dynamics with Chinese customers. Management emphasized that the high sales levels in China over the past two years were not normal for the mainstream logic market.

ASML reported strong progress with High-NA EUV, with over 300,000 wafers cumulatively run on the system at a customer site. The platform's maturation level is well ahead of where low-NA EUV was at a similar stage. SK Hynix has started taking delivery of their first High-NA system (EXE:5200), positioning it as a critical enabler for future advanced DRAM devices. The company expects to demonstrate the final specifications of the EXE:5200 within months, with no showstoppers identified for its maturity ramp.

ASML shipped its first 3D integration product, the XT:260 i-line scanner, designed for advanced packaging applications. This tool offers up to 4x the productivity compared to existing solutions through a unique optical design. The XT:260 addresses a critical need from customers for innovation in 3D integration, which is increasingly important for semiconductor roadmaps and transistor density. The company expects to ship this tool to several more customers in the coming quarters^⏳, reflecting strong interest.

ASML announced a strategic partnership with Mistral AI, a generative AI company, and invested EUR 1.3 billion in its Series C funding round, taking an 11% share and a seat on its strategic committee. This collaboration aims to embed AI across ASML's holistic portfolio to enhance system performance, productivity, and customer process yield. The partnership is expected to accelerate innovation, reduce development costs, and improve time to market for state-of-the-art solutions, connecting ASML more closely to the AI ecosystem.

Contrary to some views, ASML does not expect the number of EUV layers to drop when transitioning from 6 F-squared to 4 F-squared DRAM architecture. Instead, the company anticipates the number of EUV layers to continue to grow as the 4 F-squared roadmap progresses. The 4 F-squared structure is more complex, adding more advanced litho masks, which also benefits advanced deep UV. Management views 4 F-squared as a positive development for ASML.