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    CDNA
    Earnings call· Jun 2026(Q2 FY26)

    CareDx Q2 FY26 earnings call CDNA

    Jul 30, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    CareDx Q2 FY26 — Strong Growth, NAVDX Integration, and Pipeline Advancement

    CareDx delivered a strong second quarter, driven by robust growth in its core transplant testing services and strategic advancements in its pipeline and recent NavDx acquisition. The company raised its full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, reflecting confidence in its precision molecular diagnostics model and the successful integration of new businesses. Management is focused on expanding market access and leveraging its commercial and operational scale to drive future profitability.

    Highlights

    5
    • Total revenue increased 52% to $132 million in Q2 FY26.

    • Testing services revenue grew 61% to $100 million, with volume up 17% to 58,000 tests.

    • Non-GAAP gross margins expanded to 74% in Q2 FY26.

    • Adjusted EBITDA increased to $25 million (19% of revenue) in Q2 FY26.

    • Full-year 2026 revenue guidance raised to $490-$500 million, representing a 30% increase at the midpoint.

    Concerns

    2
    • Specialty oncology average ASP per test is guided at $770-$795 for H2 FY26, lower than the $1,000-$1,100 long-term target.

    • Integration of NavDx into CareDx's billing system is a significant undertaking in Q4 FY26, requiring prudence in near-term guidance.

    Guidance & targets

    19
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Total Revenue
    $490 million to $500 million
    high materiality
    High
    Adjusted EBITDA
    $66 million to $78 million
    high materiality
    High
    Testing Volume
    258,000 to 266,000 tests
    medium materiality
    High
    Q3 Testing Volume
    72,600 tests
    medium materiality
    High
    Q4 Testing Volume
    76,300 tests
    medium materiality
    High
    Non-GAAP Gross Margin
    71% to 73%
    medium materiality
    High
    Operating Expenses
    $293 million to $297 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Depreciation Expense
    approximately $10 million
    low materiality
    High
    Testing Services Revenue
    $400 million
    high materiality
    High
    Patient and Digital Revenue
    $72 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Product Revenue
    $23 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Specialty Oncology Revenue
    $24 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Q3 Out-of-Period Revenue
    $8 million
    low materiality
    High
    Q4 Out-of-Period Revenue
    $4 million
    low materiality
    High
    Q3 Transplant Average ASP per Test
    $1,455
    medium materiality
    High
    Q4 Transplant Average ASP per Test
    $1,465
    medium materiality
    High
    Q3 Specialty Oncology Average ASP per Test
    $770
    medium materiality
    High
    Q4 Specialty Oncology Average ASP per Test
    $795
    medium materiality
    High
    LCD Impact on Prior Guidance
    Removed $7.5 million
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Testing Services
    Strong growth driven by both surveillance and for-cause testing, supported by improved workflow in practices.
    Testing volume: 58,000 testsRevenue per test: $1,720
    $100 million61%
    Patient and Digital Solutions
    Growth principally driven by pharmacy.
    $19 million50%
    Lab Products
    Revenue for Q2 FY26 before the divestiture of the business.
    $13 million8%

    Operational metrics

    26
    Non-GAAP Gross Margin
    74%
    Q2 FY26

    Increased from prior period.

    Adjusted EBITDA
    $25 millionincreased $19 million
    Q2 FY26

    Increased by $19 million.

    Shares Repurchased
    570,000 shares
    Q2 FY26

    Executed during the quarter.

    Cash and Cash Equivalents
    $374 million
    End of Q2 FY26

    Ended the quarter with no debt.

    Gain on Sale of Lab Products Business (GAAP)
    $113 million
    Q2 FY26

    Included in GAAP operating income.

    Gain on Sale of Lab Products Business (Non-GAAP Adjustment)
    $104 million
    Q2 FY26

    Excluded from non-GAAP operating income.

    Electronic Connectivity with Transplant Customers
    90%
    Current

    Represents percentage of transplant customers connected electronically.

    Test Volume from Integrated EMRs
    50%
    Current

    Percentage of test volume from integrated Electronic Medical Records.

    Test Volume from Care Portal
    40%
    Current

    Percentage of test volume processed through the Care portal.

    Transplant Centers Using Epic Aura
    17
    Current

    Number of transplant centers currently live with Epic Aura integration.

    Cash Collections
    $136 millionincreased 49%
    Last four quarters

    Increased 49% over the last four quarters.

    Specialty Oncology (NavDx) Revenue Growth Outlook
    30-40%
    next few years

    Management's long-term growth belief for NavDx, despite more prudent near-term guidance.

    Transplant Testing Services Revenue
    $376 million
    Full-year 2026 (guidance)

    Midpoint of full-year guidance for transplant business revenue.

    Transplant Testing Volume
    58,000lifted from 56,600
    Q3 FY26 (guidance)

    Midpoint of Q3 guidance, lifted from prior guidance of 56,600 tests.

    Specialty Oncology Testing Volume
    14,600
    Q3 FY26 (guidance)

    Midpoint of Q3 guidance for specialty oncology.

    Transplant Testing Volume
    60,000
    Q4 FY26 (guidance)

    Midpoint of Q4 guidance for transplant volumes.

    Specialty Oncology Testing Volume
    16,30030% increase over prior year
    Q4 FY26 (guidance)

    Midpoint of Q4 guidance for specialty oncology, reflecting a 30% increase over the prior year.

    Revenue per Test (Testing Services)
    $1,527
    Full-year 2026 (guidance)

    Expected revenue per test for full-year 2026, including ASP and out-of-period revenue components.

    Transplant Average ASP per Test
    $1,455
    Q3 FY26 (guidance)

    Midpoint of Q3 guidance for transplant average selling price per test.

    Transplant Average ASP per Test
    $1,465
    Q4 FY26 (guidance)

    Midpoint of Q4 guidance for transplant average selling price per test.

    Specialty Oncology Average ASP per Test
    $770
    Q3 FY26 (guidance)

    Midpoint of Q3 guidance for specialty oncology average selling price per test.

    Specialty Oncology Average ASP per Test
    $795
    Q4 FY26 (guidance)

    Midpoint of Q4 guidance for specialty oncology average selling price per test.

    Combined Product and Specialty Oncology Revenue
    $47 millionin line with prior guidance of $45-$50 million
    H1 FY26 Product + H2 FY26 Specialty Oncology

    Sum of H1 product revenue and H2 specialty oncology revenue, aligning with previous guidance range.

    Patients with Persistently Elevated AlloSure Levels Experiencing Rejection
    35%
    long-term

    From a KOR Registry study, these patients also had a nine-fold higher risk of graft loss compared to those with consistently low AlloSure levels.

    Cash Cycle Improvement from Divestiture
    70-day improvement
    Post-divestiture

    Improvement in cash cycle by moving to a CLIA-only business model after divesting the lab products business.

    EBITDA Margin Long-Term Target
    20%
    Long-term

    Management's long-term target for EBITDA margins, balancing profitability with investments.

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    NAVDXAcquisition of a clinically differentiated solid tumor MRD platform.

    The acquisition expands CareDx's TAM into specialty oncology, leveraging its core competencies for growth.

    UndisclosedSale of the non-core lab products business.$172 million

    The divestiture allows CareDx to focus on its highest value opportunities and reduces regulatory overhead.

    Risks & headwinds

    2
    Integration of NavDx billing systemQ4 FY26

    Specialty oncology ASP guided lower ($770-$795) than long-term target ($1,000-$1,100) due to prudence during integration.

    Mitigation: Leveraging CareDx's established workflows and claims processing expertise to move NavDx to its billing system.

    Regulatory burden of IBD kit businessOngoing (mitigated by divestiture)

    Required 3x the number of people in regulatory team compared to CLIA business.

    Mitigation: Divestiture of the lab products business to focus on the CLIA business model, which has lower regulatory overhead.

    What to watch in Q3 FY26

    5

    NavDx ASP improvement

    Next few years, with updates in Q4 call
    Current$770 (Q3 FY26 guidance), $795 (Q4 FY26 guidance)
    TargetMoving towards $1,000-$1,100

    Why it matters

    Indicates successful integration of NavDx billing and market acceptance, impacting profitability.

    I do believe that number should move up to $1,000 to $1,100. They get $1,800 from Medicare. And I think as we publish more and more evidence and, you know, we continue to do that. to bill and collect under our system. I do think that will move up, and I'll have more to talk about when we do the Q4 guide as well, and in the October call, hopefully💬.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    Seeking feedback on the finalized LCD from the field (docs/commercial team) and whether it could create tailwinds, especially for HistoMAP coverage.

    John Hanna stated the policy reflects evidence and affirms coverage for surveillance testing. He noted no immediate field feedback as it's a payment policy, not a volume driver. He highlighted the positive outcome for existing products and the future pathway for HistoMAP coverage.

    Yes, we believe that the policy ultimately you know, reflects the reality of the evidence supporting these products and the evidence supporting surveillance testing in kidney. So we were pleased that the agency affirmed coverage for surveillance testing.

    asked by Matthew Larew · answered by John Hanna

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Pipeline Progress and Innovation

    CareDx is advancing its pipeline with Allaheem, a recurrence monitoring test for AML and MDS hematologic malignancies, which is on track for CLIA readiness by year-end 2026 and a planned 2027 commercial launch. A clinical validation manuscript for Allaheem, demonstrating its ability to predict relapse a median of 41 days before clinical diagnosis, has been submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. Additionally, HistoMAP Kidney, a molecular tissue biopsy assessment tool, showed promising new data published in Transplantation, distinguishing patients with significantly different graft loss outcomes. The company intends to launch HistoMAP Kidney in a clinical study this year and make it commercially available more broadly in 2027.

    02

    NavDx Acquisition and Integration

    The recent acquisition of NavDx, a specialty oncology company with a solid tumor MRD platform, is progressing with encouraging momentum. CareDx is focusing its integration efforts on leveraging its commercial capabilities, workflow expertise (including Epic integration), and revenue cycle management to expand adoption and market access for NavDx. These initiatives aim to combine NavDx's differentiated technology with CareDx's established commercial reach and operational scale to drive value creation.

    03

    Clinical Evidence and Market Adoption

    New data presented at the 2026 American Head and Neck Society Annual Meeting for NavDx highlighted the clinical significance of its quantitative score in predicting response to salvage therapy for HPV-driven cancers. Furthermore, 33 experts across 15 institutions published consensus recommendations supporting the use of circulating tumor HPV DNA for diagnosis and surveillance, signaling its growing establishment in clinical practice. This evidence generation strategy is crucial for building clinical confidence and supporting future adoption.

    04

    Transplant Diagnostics Leadership

    CareDx continues to strengthen its leadership in transplant diagnostics, with molecular testing increasingly integrated into clinical decision-making. Data presented at the American Transplant Congress (ATC) reinforced AlloSure Kidney's role beyond surveillance, demonstrating its utility in risk assessment, treatment response, and long-term graft outcomes. A study of over 1,100 kidney transplant recipients from the KOR Registry showed that 35% of patients with persistently elevated AlloSure levels faced a nine-fold higher risk of graft loss, emphasizing the importance of longitudinal monitoring.

    05

    Medicare Coverage Affirmation

    A significant milestone was the finalization of the Medicare local coverage determination (LCD) for solid organ transplant molecular testing on July 16th. This policy affirms coverage for surveillance testing across kidney, heart, and lung transplants, reinforcing the role of AlloSure and AlloMap in post-transplant patient management. The policy also establishes a framework for future innovation, including a pathway for HistoMAP coverage and potential expansion into additional organs like liver transplant, acknowledging molecular diagnostics as integral to transplant management.

    06

    Operational Efficiency and Financial Strength

    The divestiture of the lab products business, completed on June 30th, generated $172 million in consideration and a $113 million GAAP gain on sale ($104 million excluded from non-GAAP operating income). This strategic move improved the company's cash cycle by 70 days and significantly reduced regulatory and quality overhead associated with the kit business. CareDx ended the quarter with a strong cash position of $374 million and no debt, providing flexibility for future investments and growth initiatives.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.