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    CLF
    Earnings call· Mar 2026(Q1 FY26)

    CLEVELAND-CLIFFS Q1 FY26 earnings call CLF

    Apr 20, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Cleveland-Cliffs Q1 FY26 — Strong Order Book and Improving Pricing Momentum

    Cleveland-Cliffs reported a Q1 FY26 marked by significant sequential improvement, driven by a full order book and strengthening pricing. Despite a one-time $80 million energy cost impact, the company anticipates sustained positive momentum through the year, with Q2 and Q3 expected to show further gains in profitability and cash flow. Strategic footprint optimization and a focus on domestic supply chain resilience are positioning the company for enhanced competitiveness, though ongoing discussions with POSCO face external headwinds.

    Highlights

    5
    • Adjusted EBITDA of $95 million in Q1 FY26, a $274 million increase year-over-year.

    • Q1 shipments totaled over 4.1 million tons, a sequential recovery of more than 300,000 tons.

    • Average selling prices increased by $68 per ton year-over-year and $55 per ton sequentially.

    • Automotive shipments reached their highest level in almost 2 years during Q1, expected to increase further in Q2.

    • SG&A operating at an all-time low on a quarterly basis, demonstrating cost discipline.

    Concerns

    5
    • Energy spike drove an $80 million negative impact to EBITDA in Q1 FY26.

    • Q1 free cash flow was negative due to working capital timing.

    • Canadian steel selling price is at a 40% discount to U.S. pricing due to oversupply.

    • Q2 costs are expected to tick up another $15 per ton higher due to scheduled outages, higher fuel, and scrap costs.

    • Currency disruption in the Middle East and its impact on South Korea have slowed POSCO deal discussions.

    Guidance & targets

    8
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Q2 Shipments
    above 4.1 million tons
    medium materiality
    High
    Q2 Average Selling Prices
    up about $60 per ton
    high materiality
    High
    Q2 Cost per Ton
    tick up another $15 per ton higher
    medium materiality
    High
    Free Cash Flow
    return to meaningful positive
    high materiality
    High
    EBITDA
    best quarter in nearly 2 years
    high materiality
    High
    Asset Sales Proceeds
    $425 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Asset Sales Proceeds Cadence
    $50 million in Q2, $100 million in Q3, remainder in Q4
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year Shipments
    16.5 million to 17 million tons
    high materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    1
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Canada (Stelco)
    Effectively all shipments are sold on a spot price basis. Pricing is at a 40% discount to U.S. pricing, but still margin positive for Stelco. Historically, Canadian pricing was in line with U.S. pricing.
    Selling price discount to U.S. pricing: 40%
    margin positive

    Operational metrics

    17
    Adjusted EBITDA
    $95 millionup $274 million YoY
    Q1 FY26

    Primarily due to increased pricing.

    Shipments
    4.1 million tonsup >300,000 tons sequentially
    Q1 FY26

    Represents a recovery driven by better demand and stable operating cadence. Volume strengthened as the quarter progressed.

    Average Selling Prices
    $68 per tonup YoY
    Q1 FY26

    Reflecting improving market conditions and better automotive pull.

    Average Selling Prices
    $55 per tonup sequentially
    Q1 FY26

    Came in slightly below original estimate due to longer contractual lags.

    Pricing Realization Lag
    2 monthsextended from 1 month
    Q1 FY26

    Extended as order book filled and schedules stretched.

    Sales Contract Mix - Fixed Price
    43%
    Q1 FY26

    Portion of U.S. sales under fixed price arrangements, like in automotive.

    Sales Contract Mix - Monthly Indexed
    23%
    Q1 FY26

    Portion of U.S. sales linked to commodity HRC price.

    Sales Contract Mix - Quarterly Indexed
    7%
    Q1 FY26

    Portion of U.S. sales linked to other indices like plate.

    Sales Contract Mix - U.S. Spot
    12%
    Q1 FY26

    Portion of U.S. sales on spot price basis.

    Sales Contract Mix - Stelco Spot
    15%
    Q1 FY26

    Portion of Canadian sales on spot price basis.

    Working Capital Build
    $130 million
    Q1 FY26

    Expected build in Q1, with a slight release anticipated in Q2 due to further inventory reduction.

    Liquidity
    above $3 billion
    Q1 FY26

    Maintained after the most cash-intensive use periods.

    Slab Shipments (Metal slab contract)
    175,000 tons
    Q1 FY26

    Final tail-end shipments for the Metal slab contract, now completed.

    Diesel Impact on Mining Costs (Annual)
    $50 million
    Annual

    Impact from fuel costs on mining operations. Company does not hedge diesel.

    Natural Gas Exposure (Mining)
    20%
    Q1 FY26

    Percentage of overall natural gas associated with mining specifically.

    Asset Sales Proceeds Received
    $70 million
    YTD FY26

    Received from idle property sales so far this year.

    Remaining Asset Sales Proceeds
    $350 million
    FY26

    Remaining portion of the $425 million total expected proceeds from idle property sales for FY26.

    Industry KPIs

    3
    MetricValueDetails
    Unit cash cost$15 per tonUSD
    Growth project CAPEX first production
    Production sales volume by metal and by mine4.1 million tonstons

    Product announcements

    1
    ProductTypeDetails
    AI Initiative for Production Planningroadmap

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    POSCODiscussions regarding a mutually satisfactory transaction, following a memorandum of understanding signed last year.

    Goal remains achievable, but currency disruption in the Middle East and its impact in South Korea have not accelerated conclusion. Company's improved market position in the US has reduced urgency.

    Capital programs

    2
    Butler Works electrical steel expansion projecton schedule
    Funding: Department of Energy-funded

    Project is moving along as planned and remains on schedule for 2028 completion.

    Middletown Works projectwill proceed
    Funding: Department of Energy-funded

    Benefit: modern blast furnace configuration, among the most energy efficient in the world

    Received clear affirmation that the project will proceed once the updated scope is finally approved. Now in final stages of completing that work. The revised scope reflects a modern blast furnace configuration.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Energy Cost SpikeQ1 FY26

    $80 million negative impact to EBITDA

    Mitigation: Natural gas and electricity prices have normalized since Q1.

    Canadian Market OversupplyQ1 FY26

    Canadian selling price at a 40% discount to U.S. pricing

    Mitigation: Confidence that Canada will implement national security defenses against foreign steel dumping, similar to the U.S.

    Geopolitical DisruptionQ1 FY26

    War activity in Iran disrupted global freight lanes, driven up energy prices, destabilized metal supply chains

    Mitigation: Strengthens the position of domestic steel producers like Cleveland-Cliffs as imported steel becomes structurally more expensive.

    Increased Q2 CostsQ2 FY26

    Q2 cost should tick up another $15 per ton higher

    Mitigation: Expected to fall meaningfully in the back half of the year due to improved utilization, lower outages, and lower energy costs.

    Labor Agreement Renegotiationcoming months

    No specific quantification, but potential for impact on competitiveness, flexibility, and long-term sustainability

    Mitigation: Approaching discussions with respect and realism, aiming for an agreement that rewards workforce while strengthening company's ability to invest and grow.

    What to watch in Q2 FY26

    5

    Q2 Adjusted EBITDA

    Q2 FY26
    Current$95 million (Q1 FY26)
    TargetBest quarter in nearly 2 years

    Why it matters

    EBITDA is a key profitability metric, and Q2's performance will indicate the strength of the market and operational improvements.

    From both an EBITDA and cash flow standpoint, Q2 should be our best quarter in nearly 2 years.

    Q&A highlights

    5

    What are the Q2 price expectations given the extended lag, and what was the tonnage and EBITDA impact from the final slab shipments on the Metal slab contract?

    Q2 selling prices are expected to be up about $60 per ton. The final slab shipments for the Metal slab contract totaled 175,000 tons, which was a drag but is now complete. The contract mix for sales was detailed, with 43% fixed, 23% monthly indexed, 7% quarterly indexed, 12% US spot, and 15% Stelco spot.

    Selling prices are expected to be up about $60 a ton from Q1 to Q2. We expect to see the same kind of benefits we saw in Q1 related to pricing. The monthly quarterly and spot pricing are all up Canadian pricing is improving.

    asked by Carlos de Alba · answered by Celso Goncalves

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Market Dynamics and Trade Enforcement

    The steel market is characterized by a full order book, tight production schedules, and extended lead times, now closer to 2 months for pricing changes to flow through. This strength is attributed to effective trade enforcement, with steel imports at their lowest levels since 2009 due to Section 232 and melted and poured mandates. Recent changes in derivative product tariffs, including distribution transformers, further support domestic producers. The company expresses confidence that Canada will implement similar national security defenses against foreign steel dumping.

    02

    Aluminum to Steel Substitution Trend

    Cleveland-Cliffs is observing significant momentum in the substitution of aluminum with steel, particularly in the automotive sector, but also in building products, appliances, and truck trailers. Automotive OEMs are prioritizing supply certainty, total cost, and safety, finding Cliffs Steel to deliver these without the fragility of aluminum supply chains. The company has demonstrated to clients the potential benefits of using steel in equipment previously exclusive to aluminum, leading to market share gains.

    03

    Operational Optimization and Efficiency

    The company is continuing its footprint optimization actions, including idling the smaller 110-inch plate mill at Burns Harbor and the Gary plate finishing line. This consolidation into the 160-inch mill improves utilization, strengthens cost performance, and removes inefficient lines without sacrificing capability or leading to layoffs. These changes, coupled with positive plate market momentum, are expected to enhance earnings from the plate business.

    04

    Rare Earths and AI Initiatives

    Cleveland-Cliffs is analyzing its potential in critical rare earth minerals, but notes that the economics hinge on viable domestic refinement capability, which is currently limited and capital-intensive. The company does not intend to pursue refinement itself but is well-positioned to capitalize if infrastructure becomes available. Additionally, Cliffs has partnered with a leading AI provider to embed machine learning into production planning and order entry processes, aiming to move from human experience-driven planning to AI-assisted decision-making for optimized operations.

    05

    Labor Agreement Renegotiation

    The company will navigate the renegotiation of its labor agreement with United Steelworkers in the coming months. Management emphasizes the importance of ensuring the agreement supports competitiveness, flexibility, and long-term sustainability in an evolving, capital-intensive industry. The discussions are approached with respect and realism, aiming for an agreement that rewards the workforce while strengthening the company's ability to invest and grow.

    06

    Toyota Quality Excellence Award

    In February, Cleveland-Cliffs received the Toyota Quality Excellence Award from Toyota. This award confirms that the company's processes, consistency, execution, and overall quality meet Toyota's high standards, which are among the strictest in the world. This recognition underscores the high quality of Cliffs' steel products.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.