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Caledonia Mining (CMCL) Q2 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Jun 2026 (Q2 FY26)· Materials· Aug 10, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Caledonia Mining Q2 FY26 — Production Recovery & Bilboes Project Advancement

Caledonia Mining reported a strong Q2 FY26, marking a transitional quarter with significant production recovery at Blanket mine driven by improved grade access and operational efficiencies. The company is actively advancing its strategic Bilboes project, securing financing and progressing engineering work, while also pursuing promising exploration opportunities at K-Pits and Motapa. Despite cost pressures from reclassified employee expenses and increased electricity charges, management remains focused on optimizing operations and delivering long-term growth.

Highlights

5
  • Production was up 18% QoQ, reflecting improved access to higher-grade mining areas and operating improvements.

  • Revenue increased 16% to $76 million, supported by stronger production and a robust gold price environment.

  • EBITDA rose 16% to nearly $46 million, and profit after tax was up 27% to $30 million, with EPS up 29% to $1.36.

  • Cash and cash equivalents stood at $167.8 million at quarter-end, contributing to a total liquidity of over $200 million.

  • Significant progress was made on Bilboes project financing, with the interim funding facility expected to close by early September.

Concerns

4
  • On-mine cash costs per ounce sold increased by $100 to a new guidance range of $1,600-$1,800, primarily due to reclassification of employee trust distributions and higher electricity wheeling charges.

  • All-in sustaining cost per ounce sold increased by $400 to a new guidance range of $2,500-$2,700, impacted by higher on-mine costs, royalties, and advisory fees.

  • Supply chain delays have impacted the delivery timelines of capital projects, such as the 133 kV power line.

  • A dispute over power pricing between ZETDC and the intensive energy user group is ongoing, affecting electricity costs.

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
On-mine cash costs per ounce sold
$1,600-$1,800
high materiality
High
All-in sustaining cost per ounce sold
$2,500-$2,700
high materiality
High
Bilboes Project First Production
End of 2028
high materiality
High
Bilboes Project First Full Year Production
2029
high materiality
High
Interim Funding Facility Closure
Late August, early September
medium materiality
High
Project Finance Facility Closure
By end of 2026 or early 2027
high materiality
High
133 kV Power Line Completion
By June next year
medium materiality
Medium
Blanket Main Met Plant Target Processing Rate
990,000 tonnes a year
medium materiality
Medium

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
Blanket Mine
Production recovered in Q2 due to improved access to higher-grade areas. The mine moved to a 7-day working week in June to increase blasting days and run-of-mine production. Stockpile was run down to zero in Q2 and is now being rebuilt. Recovery rate improved as head grade increased.
Head Grade Q1 FY26: 2.5 grams a tonneHead Grade Q2 FY26: 2.88 grams a tonneTarget Head Grade Remainder of FY26: 3.16 grams a tonneBlasting Days Increase: 18%Recovery Rate: Bounced back (directional)Tail Grade: 0.2 grams a tonne
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Deals & partnerships

Various banking institutions Interim funding facility for Bilboes project $150 million

Part of the 4-pillar funding strategy for Bilboes.

Various banking institutions Project finance facility for Bilboes project Just over $300 million (at $3500/oz gold) or $263 million (at $4000/oz gold)

Running parallel to interim funding, due diligence and site visits completed.

N/A Convertible note offering $145 million

One of the 4 pillars of the funding strategy.

N/A Gold price hedge program Over construction period

One of the 4 pillars of the funding strategy.

Capital programs

Bilboes Development Project underway $600 million (total funding requirement)
Period spend: $48 million
Spent to date: $3.5 million (YTD FY26)
Funding: Cash on hand, Blanket cash flows, senior debt

Original FY26 budget was $132 million, reduced due to better financing terms and timing of payments, not delaying project timetable, cost, or scope. Year-to-date spend is on owner team and early engineering design work.

133 kV Power Line Project underway $14.2 million
Period spend: $8.1 million

Benefit:Address power constraint at Blanket, potentially cheaper power

Previously announced, costing and quotes now through. Delays due to extensive engagement with ZETDC.

AC/DC Configuration (Central Shaft Rock Winder) underway $3.1 million
Period spend: $3.1 million

Additional spend for key projects to meet objectives.

Housing Project underway $1.3 million
Period spend: $1.3 million

Benefit:Fundamental to core operating activities

Additional spend for key projects to meet objectives.

Blanket Mine Plant Upgrade planned $3.5 million
Period spend: $3.5 million

Benefit:Increase processing capacity to 990,000 tonnes/year by upgrading crushers and CIL tank

New project for the second half of this year. Exact timing of implementation and impact on 2027 ounces not yet finalized.

Risks & headwinds

Increased On-Mine Cash Costs FY26

$100 increase per ounce sold (new range $1,600-$1,800)

Increased All-in Sustaining Costs FY26

$400 increase per ounce sold (new range $2,500-$2,700)

Supply Chain Delays Ongoing

N/A

Power Pricing Dispute and Supply Constraints Ongoing

Electricity costs up 25% due to higher wheeling charges

Mitigation:133 kV power line expected by June 2027 to alleviate constraints and potentially offer cheaper power; option to import power directly.

What to watch in Q3 FY26

Blanket Mine Production & Cash Generation

H2 FY26
Current Production up 18% QoQ, grade 2.88 g/t
Target Running sweetly, increased production, improved cash generation

Why it matters

Essential for immediate financial performance and funding Bilboes.

the immediate focus by which I mean between now and the end of the year is to get -- build on the success we've had at Blanket in this quarter and get Blanket running sweetly, increased production and improve the cash generation.

Find out whether CMCL delivers this. Inve re-checks your case every morning.

Q&A highlights

Will the 18% increase in blasting days translate directly to an 18% increase in production, and what is the ultimate annual production capability of the plant after all planned upgrades?

Mark Learmonth confirmed that the 18% increase in blasting days should lead to a similar uplift in run-of-mine production, targeting approximately 990,000 tonnes a year. He explained that the Lima plant is a short-term measure, and a $3.5 million upgrade to the main metallurgical plant (crushers and CIL tank) is planned to achieve the 990,000 tonnes/year target, though the exact timing for 2027 ounces is not yet finalized.

“So what I can't -- at this stage, I can't tell you how that will convert into extra ounces in 2027 because at this stage, I don't know the exact timing of the implementation of the crusher and the CIL upgrades.”

asked by Nic Dinham · answered by Mark Learmonth

3 min read 5 chapters

Detailed narrative

Operational Recovery and Optimization at Blanket Mine

Caledonia's Blanket mine experienced a significant operational recovery in Q2 FY26, with the head grade improving from 2.5 grams per tonne in Q1 to 2.88 grams per tonne, and a target of 3.1 grams per tonne for the remainder of the year.

This improvement is attributed to enhanced access to higher-grade mining areas, following previous fall of ground incidents. The mine also implemented a 7-day working week in June, increasing blasting days by 18%, which is expected to boost run-of-mine production. Incremental production will initially be processed through the re-purposed Lima plant from September, with a planned upgrade to the main metallurgical plant in 2027 to handle all run-of-mine material at a target rate of 990,000 tonnes per year.

Bilboes Project Advancement and Funding Strategy

The Bilboes project continues to advance on schedule, remaining central to Caledonia's long-term growth strategy. Geotechnical investigations for the process plant site and tailings storage facility are complete, and process plant optimization studies are nearing completion. Procurement for long-lead items is substantially done.

The company's funding strategy for Bilboes, based on four pillars (hedge program, convertible note, interim funding, project finance), is progressing well. The successful $145 million convertible note offering has been completed, and credit approval for the $150 million interim funding facility is secured from co-lead arrangers, with closure expected by early September.

Project finance discussions are also well underway, with closure anticipated by year-end 2026 or early 2027.

Exploration Successes at K-Pits and Motapa

Caledonia reported exciting exploration results from both K-Pits and Motapa. At K-Pits, located within the Blanket mining lease, over 2,000 meters of surface trenching and 7,000 meters of shallow reverse circulation drilling revealed oxide grades of 1.5-2.5 g/t and sulfide grades of 6 g/t, all within 40 meters of surface.

A resource statement and metallurgical testing are underway, with encouraging heap leach trial results. At Motapa, the mineral resource estimate is complete and expected to be published in the coming weeks, based on 2024-2025 drilling. The 2026 exploration program is ongoing, focusing on new areas in the Central and Southern shear zones, reinforcing Motapa's potential contribution to the Bilboes project.

Cost Drivers and Capital Expenditure Adjustments

The company's on-mine cash costs and all-in sustaining costs have seen increases for FY26. A significant driver is the reclassification of the Blanket Employee Trust distribution, which resulted in a $3.2 million charge now categorized as employee costs within production costs.

Additionally, electricity costs increased by 25% due to higher wheeling charges, despite reduced consumption. Total CapEx guidance for FY26 has been revised from $162 million down to $103 million. This reduction is primarily due to a timing shift of over $80 million of Bilboes spend into early 2027, facilitated by better financing terms, rather than a project delay or funding constraint.

New CapEx initiatives include an $8.1 million spend in 2026 for a 133 kV power line and a $3.5 million Blanket mine plant upgrade.

Financial Accounting for Convertible Notes and Derivatives

The company highlighted significant movements in its P&L related to the accounting for convertible notes and capped call options. These are treated as derivative financial instruments under IFRS, leading to fair value accounting that can cause considerable volatility in the P&L.

While these movements are fully disclosed and independently valued, management emphasized that they are complex accounting items and should be treated separately when analyzing the underlying operational performance. The convertible notes contributed $145 million in proceeds, while the capped call options had an acquisition cost of $14.4 million, with a net balance sheet position of $4.4 million at period end.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.