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CMS Energy (CMS) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Mar 2026 (Q1 FY26)· Utilities· Apr 28, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

CMS Energy Q1 FY26 — Strong Start with Reaffirmed Guidance and Growing Economic Development

CMS Energy delivered a strong Q1 FY26, reaffirming its full-year EPS guidance and long-term growth outlook, driven by constructive regulatory outcomes and robust economic development in Michigan. The company is actively managing its capital plan and financing needs while addressing a negative credit outlook from Moody's, maintaining a focus on customer affordability and a growing large-load pipeline.

Highlights

5
  • Reported adjusted EPS of $1.13 in Q1 FY26, comparing favorably to the comparable period in 2025.

  • Electric rate case approved over 65% of the company's ask and maintained a 9.9% ROE.

  • MPSC staff supported over 75% of the $240 million gas rate case ask and nearly 95% of gas infrastructure investments.

  • Signed 110 MW of new load contracts year-to-date in Q1 FY26, exceeding the 100 MW signed in all of last year.

  • Michigan electric bills are the 14th lowest in the nation, well below national and Midwest averages.

Concerns

3
  • Experienced a significant ice storm in March, resulting in $0.05 per share negative variance from storm activity.

  • Moody's moved the utility to a negative outlook in March due to the size of the 5-year capital investment plan relative to cost recovery timing.

  • Higher parent financing costs, including the effects of equity dilution, partially offset positive variances in Q1 FY26.

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Full-year 2026 Adjusted EPS
$3.83 to $3.90 per share
high materiality
High
Long-term Adjusted EPS Growth Rate
6% to 8%
high materiality
High
Multi-year Capital Investment Plan
over $24 billion
high materiality
High
Annual Sales Growth
2% to 3%
medium materiality
High

Orderbook & backlog

Large Load Pipeline (Qualified) 9 gigawatts Q1 FY26

roughly about 9 gigawatts. Those are the ones that are more qualified, you might say, in the process.

Deals & partnerships

Michigan Potash & Salt Company Strategic and critical mineral manufacturer expanding in service territory. $1.3 billion investment

Expanding in the only established and sustainable potash reserve in the U.S.

Undisclosed Data Center (Hyperscaler) Data center project

Reached commercial terms on extraordinary facilities agreement and rate contract.

Undisclosed Data Center (Hyperscaler) Data center project

Another data center project in advanced negotiations.

Capital programs

5-year Capital Investment Plan underway over $24 billion
Funding: self-funding 2/3 to 3 quarters of that rate growth with, as Garrick noted, CE Way episodic cost reductions, energy waste reduction over time we hope it will be sales growth
Start: FY26

Benefit:investing heavily in the electric grid to improve reliability and resiliency, safety of the gas system

This plan is the basis for the company's investment and growth strategy, with a focus on reliability, resiliency, and safety.

Risks & headwinds

Significant ice storm activity Q1 FY26 (March)

$0.05 per share of negative variance

Mitigation:positive offsets associated with our electric supply business (partial offset)

Moody's negative outlook on utility credit rating March 2026

Moody's did move the utility to a negative outlook

Mitigation:evaluating a variety of countermeasures to address Moody's concerns; continue to target solid investment-grade credit ratings and will manage our key credit metrics accordingly

Higher parent financing costs and equity dilution Q1 FY26 and remaining 9 months FY26

Partially offset positive variances in Q1 FY26; expected to partially offset positive variances for remaining 9 months.

Mitigation:Opportunistic use of convertible debt and equity forward contracts to derisk financing needs.

Weather variability Remaining 9 months FY26

$0.23 per share of negative variance expected for remaining 9 months of FY26

Mitigation:Planning for normal weather, which equates to a negative variance compared to favorable temperatures in 2025.

What to watch in Q2 FY26

Data Center Contract Finalization

Next quarter / soon
Current closing in on final contract after reaching commercial terms on the extraordinary facilities agreement and now commercial terms on the rate contract
Target Finalized contract and public announcement

Why it matters

Finalization of this contract would confirm a significant new large load, driving future capital investment and load growth.

Our announced data center continues to close in on final contract after reaching commercial terms on the extraordinary facilities agreement and now commercial terms on the rate contract.

Find out whether CMS delivers this. Inve re-checks your case every morning.

Q&A highlights

Asked about the current state of data center opportunities and if their materialization could defer electric rate case filings, similar to DTE's approach.

Garrick Rochow expressed satisfaction with data center progress, noting a 9 GW pipeline of qualified customers and advanced contract negotiations for hyperscalers. He highlighted the existing tariff that protects customers and provides benefits. He explained the company's commitment to annual rate cases due to a large capital runway, the need to pass savings to customers, and the focus on affordability, which is supported by growth from data centers.

“But the biggest thing and the most important thing is affordability for our customers right now. And we've talked about that through the CE way. We've talked about that through episodic cost savings. But a big piece of this is growth, and that's how I tie it back to data centers.”

asked by Richard Sutherland from Truist · answered by Garrick Rochow

2 min read 6 chapters

Detailed narrative

Regulatory Strategy and Outcomes

CMS Energy highlighted its consistent track record of constructive regulatory outcomes in Michigan, attributing it to a deliberate and disciplined strategy. The recent electric rate case approved over 65% of the company's ask and maintained a 9.9% ROE. For the gas rate case, MPSC staff recommended over 75% of the $240 million ask and supported nearly 95% of gas infrastructure investments, reinforcing the company's ability to secure necessary capital recovery for customer investments.

Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and Future Capacity

The company plans to file its 20-year IRP in June, which will include 1.5 GW of new gas capacity to replace retiring units and 13 GW of renewable and clean energy, much of which is already approved. A key component of the IRP will be a "growth scenario" highlighting the need for additional capacity to meet growing customer demand, particularly from data centers and manufacturing, which could add $2 billion to $5 billion in capital opportunity for every 1 GW of new large load.

Economic Development and Load Growth

Michigan is experiencing significant economic growth, attracting new manufacturing, industrial processing, and data center interest. CMS Energy signed 110 MW of new load contracts year-to-date in Q1 FY26, surpassing the 100 MW signed in all of last year. The company emphasized the diversity of this growth, citing Michigan's high number of engineers per capita, diverse agriculture, and aerospace/defense businesses, which supports 2-3% annual sales growth.

Data Center Progress and Affordability

The company provided an update on its data center pipeline, noting progress on advanced contract negotiations and community engagement for multiple hyperscaler projects. Management stressed that these data centers are not yet reflected in the current 5-year capital plan and associated investments will not be subsidized by existing customers.

Each gigawatt of new data center load is expected to reduce the average customer rate by 2% annually over a five-year period, contributing to overall affordability.

Customer Affordability Initiatives

CMS Energy remains focused on customer affordability, with Michigan electric bills ranking 14th lowest nationally and bill growth below the energy CPI. The company achieves this through initiatives like the CE Way, digital automation, episodic cost savings, load growth, and energy waste reduction, while simultaneously investing over $24 billion in its electric and gas systems over the 5-year plan period.

Q1 Financial Performance and Outlook

The company reported adjusted EPS of $1.13 for Q1 FY26, driven by NorthStar's outperformance and higher rate relief. This was partially offset by a significant ice storm in March, which caused a $0.05 per share negative variance. Despite this, CMS Energy reaffirmed its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.83 to $3.90 per share, with confidence towards the high end, and its long-term 6-8% adjusted EPS growth target.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.