DexCom (DXCM) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Analyst notes perceived slower U.S. market growth and asks for DexCom's perspective, U.S. guidance assumptions, and new patient metrics.

Management states the U.S. market still has significant opportunity with only 30% penetration of covered lives. Q1 FY26 saw a global record for new patient starts, and U.S. new patient starts were very close to a record. New PBM coverage (Prime Therapeutics) will add 1 million non-insulin lives by year-end.

“If we just focus in on the U.S., there's still a long runway to go. We mentioned a new PBM now covering CGM by the end of the year, that's going to add another 1 million lives to that noninsulin-using population.”

asked by David Roman · answered by Jacob Leach

Asks if G7 15 Day's improved algorithm and experience help new starts, and about its margin impact given unchanged gross margin guidance.

G7 15 Day is driving momentum, new starts, and conversions due to longer wear and improved performance. Management expects nearly 50% of the base to convert by year-end. Gross margin guidance was unchanged due to 50-100 bps risk from fuel/resin costs, but underlying performance is outperforming expectations.

“I absolutely believe that the 15 Day product is helping drive the momentum that we're seeing... We estimate nearly 50% will be converted by the end of the year over to this new 15 Day product.”

asked by Travis Steed · answered by Jacob Leach

Asks about the timing of the RCT publication/readout, Investor Day discussion, and how this will unlock U.S. CGM market growth.

Full RCT readout for type 2 non-insulin will be at ADA 2026, not before. Results are expected to show significant A1c reductions. This will provide durable growth for the U.S. market by expanding commercial and Medicare access.

“We are planning to do the full readout at ADA, and we are anticipating the results there are going to be similar to what we've seen when we look at our registry data and all of the other data that we've generated in this population, really significant improvements in the glucose outcomes for these folks.”

asked by Gursimran Kaur · answered by Jacob Leach

Asks for management's thoughts on the timing of CMS coverage, specifically if it could come before the RCT submission, and the range of outcomes.

The RCT may not be required for CMS coverage, as CMS understands the benefit. It's 'a matter of time' for the decision, which will provide a great opportunity for durable growth and patient impact.

“At this point in time, the RCT may not be required for that CMS coverage. I think in my conversations with the folks at CMS, it's very clear that they understand the benefit of CGM for this category. So hard to estimate exactly when this coverage is going to come. But as we've said before, it's really just a matter of time.”

asked by Matthew Taylor · answered by Jacob Leach

Asks about the reasons for Stelo's redesign, the scope of its international launch, and potential for new market entry.

Stelo redesign was prompted by user feedback for more context around glucose data, leading to a complete UI overhaul with AI-driven personalized insights and enhanced nutrition logging. International launch will start with a smaller number of countries in EMEA and APAC, with plans for broader expansion, seeing it as an entry point for many markets.

“This new Stelo app that we're going to launch here very shortly is a complete redesign of the user interface. It has a much more technology forward aesthetic as well as the insights that are provided to users around basically adding context to their glucose experience...”

asked by Issie Kirby · answered by Jacob Leach