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    EC
    Earnings call· Jun 2025(Q2 FY25)

    ECOPETROL S.A. EC

    Aug 13, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Ecopetrol Q2 FY25 — Record Production and Strong Efficiency Gains Amidst Price Volatility

    Ecopetrol delivered robust operational performance in Q2 FY25, achieving record production and significant efficiency gains that partially offset the impact of declining crude prices and external disruptions. The company maintained capital discipline and advanced its energy transition initiatives, while navigating market volatility and addressing tax-related challenges. Management emphasized its commitment to shareholder value and financial resilience.

    Highlights

    5
    • Semester production reached 751,000 boe/d, the highest in a decade, driven by fields in Colombia and Permian Basin.

    • Commercial viability declared for Lorito discovery (CPO-09 block) with ~250 MMbbl recoverable resources, the most significant in a decade.

    • Achieved COP 2.2 trillion in efficiencies in H1 2025, exceeding target by 27%, mitigating lower crude prices.

    • Midstream EBITDA increased 9% in H1 2025, demonstrating resilience despite external events and maintenance.

    • Downstream EBITDA recovered 53% YoY in Q2 2025, supported by 95.8% operational availability and improved refining margins ($12.5/bbl).

    Concerns

    5
    • Crude price fell by 22% compared to Q2 2024, impacting revenue and profits.

    • Net income declined by COP 2.5 trillion YoY in H1 2025, primarily due to market factors (78% of impact) and local environment issues.

    • Midstream transported volumes decreased by 6% QoQ and 4% YoY in H1 2025 due to external events (blockades, attacks) and refinery maintenance.

    • RBSE adjustment impacted ISA's EBITDA by COP 0.6 trillion and net income by COP 0.1 trillion.

    • Potential VAT claim of COP 11 trillion for gasoline and diesel imports from 2022-2024, with an estimated COP 3.6 trillion for 2025.

    Guidance & targets

    10
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Production target
    740,000 to 750,000 boe/d
    high materiality
    High
    Renewable energy for self-generation
    exceed 900 MW
    medium materiality
    High
    Upstream investment
    $4 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Lifting costs
    below $12 per barrel
    medium materiality
    High
    Cost and expense reduction
    COP 1 trillion target
    high materiality
    High
    Working capital optimization
    COP 2 trillion target
    medium materiality
    High
    Net debt-to-EBITDA ratio
    below 2.5x
    high materiality
    High
    VAT payments recovery
    93%
    medium materiality
    High
    Gasoline imports reduction
    43,000 bbl/d regular gasoline, 8,000 bbl/d diesel
    low materiality
    Medium
    FEC balance
    COP 5 billion
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    4
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Upstream
    Achieved highest semester production in a decade. Permian production increased by 14,000 boe/d YoY. Lorito discovery declared commercial with 250 MMbbl recoverable resources.
    Semester production: 751,000 boe/dDomestic crude oil production: 57,000 bbl/dPermian Basin production: 106,000 boe/d (H1 2025)Workovers executed: 180 (H1 2025, 59% increase YoY)Development wells drilled: 220 (H1 2025)
    54% of total EBITDA
    Midstream
    Solid financial results despite challenging environment due to external events and maintenance. Implemented strategies for operational control and alternative evacuation routes.
    Domestic transported volumes: 6% decrease QoQDomestic transported volumes: 4% decrease H1 YoYPozos Colorados terminal storage capacity: 1.5 million barrelsCrude pipeline capacity increase: 7%Evacuation capacity increase: 50,000 to 80,000 bbl/d
    -6%9% increase in EBITDA (H1 2025 YoY)
    Downstream
    Recovery in financial results driven by improved operational availability and better international gasoline and diesel differentials. Progress on major maintenance cycle (8 of 10 works completed).
    Operational availability: 95.8% (Q2 2025)Consolidated throughput: 43,000 bbl/d (Q2 2025)Integrated gross refining margin: $12.5/bbl (Q2 2025)Integrated gross refining margin: $11.7/bbl (H1 2025)
    53%53% increase in EBITDA (Q2 2025 YoY)
    Transmission and Roads (ISA)
    Maintained solid operational performance but results partially impacted by RBSE adjustment and provision for outstanding receivables. Continues to be a key pillar for group diversification.
    EBITDA reduction: COP 0.6 trillion (due to RBSE adjustment)Net income decrease: COP 0.1 trillion (due to RBSE adjustment)Projects awarded (Colombia): 7 (reference CapEx COP 187 billion)Projects entered operation (Brazil): 7 (estimated investment COP 232 billion)
    17% of consolidated EBITDA

    Operational metrics

    63
    Efficiencies achieved
    COP 2.2 trillion27% above target
    H1 2025

    Helped mitigate the impact of lower prices.

    OpEx reduction from efficiencies
    COP 684 billion
    H1 2025

    Part of total efficiencies achieved.

    Additional income from efficiencies
    COP 668 billion
    H1 2025

    Part of total efficiencies achieved.

    Investment cost optimizations
    30%
    H1 2025

    Incorporated into efficiency plan.

    Working capital improvements cash flow impact
    COP 108 billion
    H1 2025

    Achieved through inventory management and savings in financial expenses.

    Lifting costs
    $11.59decrease of $0.45/bbl YoY
    H1 2025

    Supported by favorable exchange rate and captured efficiencies.

    Cost per barrel transported
    2% increase
    H1 2025

    Due to lower transported volumes, partially offset by efficiencies.

    Refining cash cost
    3% increase
    H1 2025

    Due to reduced refining throughputs, partially offset by efficiencies.

    Renewable energy portfolio
    630 MW
    end of H1 2025

    On track to meet 900 MW goal by year-end.

    Group electricity demand met by renewable sources
    5.6%up from 0.6% five years ago
    H1 2025

    Diversification of energy matrix and supply cost reduction.

    Savings from renewable energy
    COP 70 billion
    H1 2025

    Reflecting the impact of renewable energy strategy.

    Energy efficiency optimization
    2.42 petajoules
    H1 2025

    Driven by initiatives like turbo compressor replacement and gas injection optimization.

    Savings from energy efficiency
    COP 53 billion
    H1 2025

    Resulting from efficiency measures.

    CO2 equivalent reduction from energy efficiency
    171,000 tons
    H1 2025

    Resulting from efficiency measures.

    Net income
    COP 4.9 trilliondecline of COP 2.5 trillion YoY
    H1 2025

    Reflected group's commitment to capturing structural efficiencies.

    EBITDA
    COP 24.4 trillionvariation of COP 3.9 trillion YoY
    H1 2025

    Maintained competitive profitability.

    EBITDA margin
    40%exceeding annual target of 39%
    H1 2025

    Remained strong.

    Cash position
    COP 13.1 trillion
    end of June

    Focused on protecting liquidity.

    Operational cash flow (from timely payments of Fintech)
    COP 7.6 trillion
    H1 2025

    Strong contribution to free cash flow.

    Dividends paid
    COP 8.8 trillion
    H1 2025

    To both majority and minority shareholders.

    Working capital optimization progress
    51%towards COP 2 trillion target
    H1 2025

    Key measures included early collections of tax credit compensation and trade finance operations.

    2024 tax credit compensation collected
    COP 3.2 trillion
    H1 2025

    Key measure for working capital optimization.

    Trade finance operations in subsidiaries
    COP 100 million
    H1 2025

    Key measure for working capital optimization.

    Foreign exchange hedging operations
    $935 million
    H1 2025

    Helping to mitigate impact on export-related collections.

    FEC balance
    COP 2.5 trillionlowest level since Q2 2021
    as of June

    Improvement with monthly accrual below COP 500 billion.

    Gross debt-to-EBITDA ratio
    2.4x
    as of June

    Within long-term target range of below 2.5x.

    Gross debt-to-EBITDA ratio (excluding ISA)
    1.7x
    as of June

    Lower when excluding ISA.

    Net debt-to-EBITDA ratio
    2.2x
    as of June

    Decreases with cash balance.

    Net debt-to-EBITDA ratio (excluding ISA)
    1.6x
    as of June

    Lower when excluding ISA.

    Investments executed
    $2,582 million
    H1 2025

    Maintained strong momentum aligned with historical levels and annual plan targets.

    Investments in exploration and production
    $1,290 million
    H1 2025

    Mainly in Meta region and Orca discovery.

    Investments in refining
    $171 million
    H1 2025

    To ensure operational availability.

    Investments in transportation
    $100 million
    H1 2025

    To support operational continuity.

    Capital discipline CapEx flexibility
    $500 million56% progress as of June
    2025

    To protect production for the remainder of the year.

    VAT payments (2025)
    COP 3.6 trillion
    2025

    Total estimated payments across the group.

    VAT payments recovery (2025)
    93%
    2025

    Expected through refund and deduction mechanisms.

    Water reuse in direct operations
    44 million cubic barrels
    H1 2025

    Resource management.

    Households benefiting from social gas initiatives
    10,000+
    H1 2025

    Reaffirming commitment to universal energy access.

    EBITDA (Gas and LPG)
    COP 1.5 trillion4.5% higher YoY
    H1 2025

    Demonstrating profitability of energy transition.

    Gasoline imports
    74,000 bbl/d
    Jan-Aug 2025

    Regular gasoline imports.

    Gasoline imports (total volume)
    $3.2 million barrels
    Jan-Aug 2025

    Total volume of regular gasoline imported.

    EBITDA margin impact from RBSE adjustment
    COP 0.6 trillion
    H1 2025

    One-time effect on ISA.

    Net income impact from RBSE adjustment
    COP 0.1 trillion
    H1 2025

    One-time effect on ISA.

    Income tax paid (as of June)
    COP 6 billion
    as of June 2025

    Part of transfers to the nation.

    Transfers to the nation (as of June)
    COP 23 billion
    as of June 2025

    Total transfers including dividends, royalties, and taxes.

    Transfers to the nation (2024 total)
    COP 40.4 billion
    2024

    Total transfers including dividends, royalties, and taxes.

    Transfers to the nation (2025 expected total)
    COP 38 billion
    2025

    Expected total transfers including dividends, royalties, and taxes.

    Income tax expected (2025)
    COP 3 billion
    2025

    Expected income tax for the year.

    EBITDA margin (last 2 semesters)
    38.5%
    last 2 semesters

    Dropped from historical levels.

    Tax compensation (Q2)
    COP 2.2 billion
    Q2 2025

    Reimbursement of taxes.

    Total balance of taxes in favor (2025)
    COP 9.5 billion
    2025

    Between income and others.

    Disbursed financing for inorganic investments
    COP 500 million
    H1 2025

    Out of COP 680 million authorized.

    Investments in clean energies
    $300 million to $400 million
    2025

    Estimated investment for the year.

    Permian peak production
    165 bbl/d
    H1 2025

    Achieved due to anticipated activity and better drill performance.

    Domestic crude oil production (H1 2024)
    517,000 bbl/d
    H1 2024

    Compared to H1 2025.

    Domestic crude oil production (expected year-end)
    527,000 bbl/d
    end of 2025

    Expected production.

    Domestic crude oil production (current)
    25,000 bbl/d
    current

    Expected to reach 30,000 bbl/d by year-end.

    Domestic crude oil production (prior semester)
    48,000 bbl/d
    prior semester

    Compared to current peak.

    Domestic crude oil production (peak)
    57,000 bbl/d
    current

    Current peak production.

    Rubiales production peak
    97,000 bbl/d
    current

    Working to maintain and increase.

    Cupiagua gas production increase
    14%
    last year

    Increased production.

    Gas and LPG production
    161,000 boe/d
    H1 2025

    Production from this business line.

    Permian average production (expected year-end)
    90,000 to 190,000 bbl/d
    end of 2025

    Expected average production.

    Industry KPIs

    8
    MetricValueDetails
    D c efficiency rig activity180 workovers, 220 development wellscount
    Pipeline throughput storage1 million barrels per daybbl/d
    Realized price differentialbest quarterly crude differential
    Sanctioned expansion backlogCOP 187 billionCOP
    Basin level production volume751,000 boe/dboe/d
    Cost of supply unit cash cost$11.59$/bbl
    FCF shareholder distributionsCOP 8.8 trillionCOP
    Take or pay contract structure5-year long-term contract

    Deals & partnerships

    6
    RepsolAcquisition of interest in oil block

    Acquisition of 45% interest in Block CPO-09 from Repsol, leading to the commercial viability declaration of Lorito discovery.

    WintecAcquisition of wind project

    Agreement signed to acquire Wintec, Ecopetrol's first wind project developed by its own, located in La Guajira.

    Civil Aviation Authority of ColombiaAlliance to promote Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF)

    Alliance formalized on July 10 to promote the development of sustainable aviation fuels in Colombia.

    AESFramework investment agreement

    Signed framework investment agreement with AES.

    StatkraftPower purchase agreement

    Signed power purchase agreement with Statkraft.

    ShellRequest to assign 50% interest in offshore block to Ecopetrol

    On June 9, 2025, submitted a request to assign Shell's 50% interest in the block in favor of Ecopetrol.

    Capital programs

    4
    ISA Reinforcement and Improvement Projects (Colombia)awardedCOP 187 billion

    Benefit: 7 projects

    Awarded 7 reinforcement and improvement projects.

    ISA Reinforcement and Improvement Projects (Brazil)entered operationCOP 232 billion

    Benefit: 7 projects

    7 reinforcement and improvements in Brazil network entered operation.

    4 Project (Brazil)began commercial operationCOP 70 billion

    Facilitating the integration of a new solar project in Sao Paulo.

    Bolivar Transmission Line Renewal (Colombia)completedCOP 16 billion

    Completed the renewal of the Bolivar transmission line.

    Risks & headwinds

    7
    Crude price declineQ2 2025

    22% compared to Q2 2024

    Mitigation: Diversified crude basket, active marketing strategy, efficiency gains (COP 2.2 trillion in H1 2025).

    External events impacting midstream volumesH1 2025

    6% decrease QoQ, 4% decrease H1 YoY in transported volumes

    Mitigation: Stronger operational control, leveraging technology for rapid detection/repair, alternative evacuation routes, coordination with government agencies.

    RBSE adjustment impact on ISAJune 2025 (one-time effect)

    COP 0.6 trillion EBITDA reduction, COP 0.1 trillion net income decrease

    Mitigation: ISA committed to meeting 2025 financial targets and executing 2040 strategy.

    Provision for outstanding receivables from ID in ESAH1 2025

    COP 0.2 trillion impact on EBITDA, COP 0.1 trillion on net income

    Mitigation: ISA committed to meeting 2025 financial targets.

    New taxes (state of emergency decree, non-deductible VAT on fuel imports)H1 2025

    COP 0.2 trillion impact

    Mitigation: Efficiency measures to compensate negative effects.

    Potential VAT claim on gasoline and diesel importsOngoing (legal process up to 5 years)

    COP 11 trillion for 2022-2024, COP 3.6 trillion for 2025

    Mitigation: Pursuing legal defense, technical working group with government, company considers no provision required.

    Geopolitical tensions and third-party disruptionsQ2 2025

    Declining crude prices

    Mitigation: Operational solutions, efficiency gains.

    What to watch in Q3 FY25

    5

    Permian Basin average production

    end of 2025
    Current106,000 boe/d (H1 2025)
    Target90,000 to 190,000 bbl/d (average for 2025)

    Why it matters

    Verifying if the Permian Basin can sustain high production levels and meet the full-year target, crucial for overall upstream growth.

    That's why our expectation by the end of the year with the activities that we've made so far, we expect an average production of 90 to 190 barrels day.

    Q&A highlights

    5

    How was the Permian production peak achieved and what are the expectations for the rest of the year? What are the figures for dividends, taxes, and royalties transferred to the nation for 2024 and expected for 2025?

    Permian peak production of 165 bbl/d was due to anticipated activity and better drill performance; expected average production for the year is 90-190 bbl/d. For 2024, COP 11 billion in dividends, COP 9 billion in royalties, and COP 20 billion in taxes were transferred (total COP 40.4 billion). For 2025, COP 23 billion transferred as of June, with an expectation of COP 38 billion total, maintaining the 50% taxes, 25% royalties, 25% dividends proportion.

    This year, we expect to have the same proportion, 50% in taxes, which we can say as of June 2025, we paid about COP 6 billion in tax -- income tax, specifically, COP 3 billion in self withholdings and 3 in income.

    asked by Andres Duarte · answered by Juan Carlos

    2 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Record Production and Strategic Discoveries

    Ecopetrol achieved its highest semester production in a decade at 751,000 boe/d, driven by strong performance in Colombian fields and the Permian Basin. The commercial viability of the Lorito discovery (CPO-09 block) was declared, representing the most significant discovery in the past decade with approximately 250 million barrels of recoverable resources. This milestone enables the development of 13,584 acres and incorporates two wells with a combined production potential of 1,450 bbl/d.

    02

    Efficiency and Cost Optimization

    The company achieved COP 2.2 trillion in efficiencies during H1 2025, surpassing its target by 27%. These savings primarily impacted OpEx and revenues, with COP 684 billion in OpEx reductions and COP 668 billion in additional income. Key initiatives included tariff optimizations, energy efficiency projects, and synergies in transportation. Lifting costs decreased to $11.59/bbl in H1, maintaining the target below $12/bbl.

    03

    Midstream Resilience and Infrastructure Enhancements

    The midstream segment demonstrated resilience with a 9% EBITDA increase in H1 2025, despite a 6% decrease in domestic transported volumes due to external events and maintenance. Strategic projects included storage expansion at Pozos Colorados terminal to 1.5 million barrels, increased crude pipeline capacity by 7%, and enhanced evacuation capacity from 50,000 to 80,000 bbl/d. The operationalization of the Caño Limón pipeline saved COP 77 billion.

    04

    Downstream Recovery and Margin Improvement

    The downstream segment showed a strong recovery in Q2 2025, with EBITDA increasing 53% YoY, supported by 95.8% operational availability. Consolidated throughput reached 43,000 bbl/d, and the integrated gross refining margin improved to $12.5/bbl, up 37% YoY. Progress on the Cartagena refinery's electrical reliability plan and maximization of high-value products contributed to these results.

    05

    Energy Transition and Renewable Energy

    Ecopetrol is on track to exceed its goal of 900 MW in renewable energy for self-generation by 2025, with 630 MW accumulated in its portfolio (208 MW operational, 228 MW under construction, 99 MW in execution). The group's electricity demand met by renewable sources increased to 5.6% from 0.6% five years ago. Energy efficiency measures resulted in 2.42 petajoules of optimization, saving over COP 53 billion and reducing 171,000 tons of CO2e.

    06

    Financial Performance and Debt Management

    Net income for H1 2025 was COP 4.9 trillion, a decline of COP 2.5 trillion YoY, mainly due to market factors (22% Brent price drop). EBITDA was COP 24.4 trillion, with a strong margin of 40%. The company maintained a healthy cash position of COP 13.1 trillion and a positive free cash flow of COP 3.1 trillion. Gross debt-to-EBITDA stood at 2.4x, within the long-term target of below 2.5x.

    07

    Tax and Regulatory Challenges

    Ecopetrol faces a potential VAT claim of COP 11 trillion for gasoline and diesel imports from 2022-2024, with an estimated COP 3.6 trillion for 2025. While the company does not recognize payment obligations for previous years and is pursuing legal defense, it expects to recover 93% (COP 3.3 trillion) of the 2025 payments through refunds. The RBSE adjustment also impacted ISA's financial results.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.