Skip to content
    EE
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    Excelerate Energy Q4 FY25 earnings call EE

    Feb 26, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Excelerate Energy Q4 FY25 — Record Adjusted EBITDA and Strong 2026 Outlook

    Excelerate Energy delivered a record-setting 2025, driven by strong operational reliability and the Jamaica acquisition, and provided robust 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance. The company is actively pursuing strategic growth initiatives, including the Iraq terminal project and FSRU conversions, to capitalize on increasing global LNG regasification demand, particularly in the Global South. Management emphasizes a disciplined capital allocation approach while balancing growth and shareholder returns.

    Highlights

    5
    • Full-year 2025 record adjusted EBITDA of $449 million, an increase of $100 million (+30%) over prior year.

    • Enterprise-wide reliability exceeded 99.9% for the year, its strongest performance to date.

    • Full integration of the Jamaica platform completed successfully in Q4 2025, demonstrating resilience during Hurricane Melissa.

    • Introduced full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $515 million to $545 million, an $80 million increase at the midpoint.

    • Board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.08 per share, targeting low double-digit annual growth through 2028.

    Concerns

    3
    • Iraq terminal project's total estimated capital cost increased to $520 million-$550 million from prior estimates due to structural design refinements.

    • Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $113 million decreased sequentially from Q3 due to partial Atlantic Basin cargo delivery and increased business development expenses.

    • Maintenance CapEx for 2026 is expected to range between $100 million and $110 million, driven by timing of dry docks for Express and Exquisite FSRUs.

    Guidance & targets

    9
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Adjusted EBITDA
    $515M-$545M
    high materiality
    High
    Maintenance CapEx
    $100M-$110M
    medium materiality
    High
    Committed Growth Capital
    $370M-$400M
    high materiality
    High
    Annual Dividend Growth Rate
    Low double-digit
    medium materiality
    High
    Iraq Terminal Operations Commencement
    Q3 '26
    high materiality
    High
    Express FSRU Redeployment
    Improved economic terms
    medium materiality
    High
    FSRU Conversion Commercial Deployment
    Early 2028
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Jamaica Platform Growth
    $80M-$110M
    medium materiality
    High
    Petrobangla QE LNG Supply Agreements Contribution
    $15M
    low materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    1
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Jamaica LNG to Power Platform
    The Jamaica platform performed exceptionally well, delivering safe and reliable energy supply and stable contracted cash flows. Full integration was completed in Q4 2025. The platform demonstrated exceptional resilience during Hurricane Melissa, with minimal operational and financial impacts.
    Operational resilience: exceptional during Hurricane MelissaOperational and financial impacts during Q4: minimal during Hurricane Melissa

    Operational metrics

    22
    Adjusted EBITDA
    $449Mup $100M (+30%) YoY
    FY25

    Record adjusted EBITDA for the full year, at the high end of guidance range. Reflects contribution from Jamaica acquisition, continued growth in LNG, gas and power activities, and reduced operating expenses.

    Adjusted Net Income
    $199Mup $46M (+30%) YoY
    FY25

    Increased due to Jamaica contribution and increased LNG, gas and power sales, partially offset by higher interest expense related to 2030 notes.

    Adjusted Net Income
    $40Mdecreased sequentially from Q3
    Q4 FY25

    In line with expectations. Decrease from Q3 primarily due to partial Atlantic Basin cargo delivery, increased business development expenses, and modestly lower LNG gas and power direct margins in Jamaica following Hurricane Melissa.

    Adjusted EBITDA
    $113Mdecreased sequentially from Q3
    Q4 FY25

    In line with expectations. Decrease from Q3 primarily due to partial Atlantic Basin cargo delivery, increased business development expenses, and modestly lower LNG gas and power direct margins in Jamaica following Hurricane Melissa.

    Maintenance CapEx
    $57M
    FY25

    Full year maintenance capital expenditure.

    Committed Growth Capital
    $106M
    FY25

    Includes $10 million of growth capital invested in the Iraq project in Q4 2025.

    Total Debt (including finance leases)
    $1.3B
    As of Dec 31, 2025

    Balance sheet position at year-end.

    Cash and Cash Equivalents
    $538M
    As of Dec 31, 2025

    Balance sheet position at year-end.

    Revolving Credit Facility Capacity
    $500M
    As of Dec 31, 2025

    Full capacity available under the revolving credit facility.

    Net Debt
    $730M
    As of Dec 31, 2025

    Calculated as total debt minus cash and cash equivalents.

    Trailing Net Leverage
    1.6x
    Trailing 12 months as of Dec 31, 2025

    Leverage ratio at year-end.

    Quarterly Dividend Per Share
    $0.08
    Q1 FY26

    Approved by the Board, targeting low double-digit annual growth through 2028.

    Enterprise-wide Reliability
    99.9%strongest performance to date
    FY25

    Reflects consistent, reliable performance generating stable, predictable cash flow.

    Iraq Terminal EBITDA Build Multiple
    5xin line with outlined economics
    Projected

    Expected at the minimum contracted offtake, with meaningful upside potential up to 500 million scf/day.

    Hull 3407 Remaining Payment
    $220M
    Q2 FY26

    Remaining payment for the new FSRU, due in Q2 2026.

    Iraq Integrated Terminal Growth Capital
    $140M-$170M
    FY26

    Expected growth capital for the integrated terminal project in Iraq for FY26.

    Other Committed Growth Projects Capital
    $10M
    FY26

    Additional growth capital for other committed projects in FY26.

    India Natural Gas Consumption Target
    15%up from 6% currently
    2030

    Prime Minister Modi's target for natural gas consumption in India's energy mix.

    Iran Natural Gas Deliveries to Iraq
    800 million scf/dayreduced to 0
    Prior to last summer

    Iran's previous natural gas exports to Iraq, which sometimes constituted 50% of Iraq's gas needs, now at zero.

    Global South Air Conditioning Units
    5.6 billion unitstriple by 2050
    2050

    Projected increase in air conditioning units, driving power demand in the Global South.

    SG&A Sequential Increase
    $4.7Msequential step-up
    Q4 FY25 vs Q3 FY25

    Driven by Hurricane Melissa CSR efforts ($2M), increased business development spend ($2M, half for Iraq), and year-end cleanup. Not considered a run rate.

    Small-Scale LNG Deals Volume
    0.5 million to 2.0 million tons/year
    Future

    Expected range for many future LNG deals around the world, indicating a diversified asset deployment strategy.

    Industry KPIs

    4
    MetricValueDetails
    Sanctioned expansion backlog$520M-$550MUSD
    FCF shareholder distributions$0.08USD/share
    Take or pay contract structure250 million scf/dayscf/day
    Weather event volume earnings impactMinimal

    Orderbook & backlog

    1
    Share Repurchase Program Authorization$75MDecember 2025

    Authorized by the Board, providing flexibility to repurchase shares in a disciplined manner.

    Deals & partnerships

    3
    JamaicaAcquisition of LNG to power platform

    Acquisition closed in May 2025. Full integration of the Jamaica platform was completed successfully in Q4 2025.

    QatarEnergy and PetrobanglaLNG supply agreements2 years, then ongoing

    LNG supply agreements coming online in 2026, contributing incremental uplift to adjusted EBITDA.

    India (Haldia project)First foray into Indian market with a small-scale LNG project

    Project located south of Calcutta, aiming to get into the Indian market. Could fit within 2028 timeline.

    Capital programs

    3
    Iraq Integrated LNG Import Terminalunderway$520M-$550M
    Period spend: $140M-$170M
    Spent to date: $10M (Q4 FY25)

    Benefit: 250-500 million scf/day natural gas supply

    Total estimated capital cost, inclusive of Hull 3407. Hull 3407 cost remains roughly $370M, with $220M remaining to be paid in Q2 2026. Increase in CapEx due to structural design refinements and commercial adjustments. Expected to achieve ~5x EBITDA build multiple.

    FSRU Conversion Programunderway

    Benefit: Commercial deployment of converted FSRU

    Plans for an FSRU conversion are moving forward. Negotiations of final contracts are ongoing, so this project is not yet included in committed growth capital guidance. Expected to be available for commercial deployment in early 2028.

    Asset Reliability Initiativeunderway
    Period spend: $100M-$110M

    Benefit: Maintain 99.9% reliability, replenish strategic spares, overhauls and upgrades

    Multiyear initiative focused on maintaining high levels of asset reliability. FY26 maintenance CapEx includes dry docks for Express and Exquisite FSRUs, Explorer dry dock, and long lead time equipment for a 2027 dry dock. Expected to scale down by 2028.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Increased Iraq Terminal Capital CostFY26

    $520M-$550M total estimated capital cost

    Mitigation: Refinements in structural design and commercial horse-trading with Iraqis, resulting in lower annual terminal operating costs. EBITDA build multiple of ~5x maintained.

    Sequential Decline in Q4 Adjusted EBITDAQ4 FY25

    Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $113M (down sequentially from Q3)

    Mitigation: Primarily due to partial Atlantic Basin cargo delivery in Q4 vs. full delivery in Q3, increased business development expenses, and modestly lower LNG gas and power direct margins in Jamaica following Hurricane Melissa. Management expects 2026 guidance to reflect continued performance.

    Increased Maintenance CapExFY26

    $100M-$110M for FY26

    Mitigation: Driven mostly by timing of dry docks for Express and Exquisite FSRUs, Explorer dry dock concluded in Q1 2026, and long lead time equipment for a 2027 dry dock. Part of a deliberate multiyear initiative for asset reliability.

    Hurricane Melissa Impact on JamaicaQ4 FY25

    Minimal operational and financial impacts; $2M hit to SG&A

    Mitigation: Jamaica LNG to power platform demonstrated exceptional resilience. Company spent over $1M on CSR to support the island. Highlighted benefits of floating regasification infrastructure for energy security.

    What to watch in Q1 FY26

    5

    Hull 3407 Delivery and Iraq Project Progress

    Q2 FY26 / Q3 FY26
    CurrentCompleted sea trials, advancing final commissioning activities
    TargetDelivery in early Q2 2026, on track for Q3 2026 operations commencement

    Why it matters

    Successful delivery and commencement of operations for the Iraq project are key to realizing significant EBITDA contribution and validating the increased capital expenditure.

    Construction of Hull 3407, our newest best-in-class FSRU is progressing well. The vessel has completed sea trials and is advancing through final commissioning activities. These include gas trials and cryogenic testing ahead of delivery in early second quarter.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    What are the next likely capital sanctioning opportunities (Jamaica, integrated deals, LNG conversions) and what is the expected EBITDA run rate and growth for the business in the next few years?

    Management highlighted the shift in the LNG industry focus from liquefaction to regasification, emphasizing Excelerate's strong position. They expect growth from integrated deals like Iraq, Jamaica expansions, and FSRU conversions. While not providing multi-year guidance, they pointed to building blocks for 2027 EBITDA, including a full year of Iraq, Jamaica growth ($80M-$110M over 5 years), Petrobangla QE contribution ($15M then $18M), and uplift from Express FSRU re-contracting.

    I think you've got the building blocks out there for where we have high confidence on EBITDA in 2027. You know we don't guide to it, but we've -- and Dana can speak to that further, but I think the building blocks are there, and it's easy to piece together where we see EBITDA going to in '27.

    asked by Elias Jossen · answered by Steven Kobos

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Global LNG Market Dynamics and Strategic Positioning

    Excelerate Energy positions itself as a global LNG and power infrastructure platform, enabling countries to enhance energy security by accessing global LNG markets. The company anticipates a material increase in global LNG supply through the end of the decade, driving demand for regasification infrastructure, particularly in the Global South. This trend, coupled with rising power demand from population growth, industrial development, and AI data centers, aligns well with Excelerate's asset portfolio and capabilities.

    02

    Iraq Project Progress and Economics

    The Iraq project is strategically important, providing a reliable natural gas source to address a significant deficit and support power generation. Construction of Hull 3407, the new FSRU, is progressing well, with delivery expected in early Q2 2026. Site mobilization and early construction for the integrated LNG import terminal are underway. Despite an increase in estimated capital cost to $520 million-$550 million due to structural design refinements, the project is expected to achieve an EBITDA build multiple of approximately 5x at the minimum contracted offtake of 250 million standard cubic feet per day, with upside potential to 500 million scf/day.

    03

    Jamaica Platform Integration and Caribbean Expansion

    The Jamaica LNG to power platform performed exceptionally well in 2025, delivering stable contracted cash flows and demonstrating resilience during Hurricane Melissa. Full integration of the Jamaica platform was completed in Q4 2025. The company is now focused on optimizing the Jamaica platform and pursuing new infrastructure opportunities across the Caribbean, leveraging the existing assets for near-term small-scale LNG deliveries and exploring larger capital plays in the region for 2027 and beyond.

    04

    FSRU Redeployment and Conversion Strategy

    Excelerate expects the Express FSRU to be redelivered late in Q3 2026 upon contract expiration. The company has high confidence in redeploying this asset under improved economic terms, supporting incremental EBITDA uplift in 2027. Additionally, plans are advancing for an FSRU conversion, with the converted vessel expected to be available for commercial deployment in early 2028. This conversion project is not yet included in committed growth capital guidance as contract negotiations are ongoing.

    05

    Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns

    The company ended 2025 with a strong balance sheet, $538 million in cash, and a net leverage of 1.6x. The Board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.08 per share, targeting low double-digit annual dividend growth through 2028. A $75 million share repurchase program was authorized in December 2025, providing flexibility for disciplined shareholder returns alongside continued investment in growth priorities. The capital plans balance growth, returns, and financial discipline.

    06

    India Market Entry and Small-Scale Solutions

    Excelerate is making its first foray into the Indian market with the Haldia project, located south of Calcutta, recognizing India's enormous market potential and goal to increase natural gas consumption to 15% by 2030. The company is also exploring scalable LNG regasification solutions, including integrated onshore terminals, floating storage units with onshore regasification, and small-scale/modular configurations. These smaller-scale, downstream solutions are expected to offer higher returns, justifying the investment.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.