Excelerate Energy (EE) Q4 FY25 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

What are the next likely capital sanctioning opportunities (Jamaica, integrated deals, LNG conversions) and what is the expected EBITDA run rate and growth for the business in the next few years?

Management highlighted the shift in the LNG industry focus from liquefaction to regasification, emphasizing Excelerate's strong position. They expect growth from integrated deals like Iraq, Jamaica expansions, and FSRU conversions. While not providing multi-year guidance, they pointed to building blocks for 2027 EBITDA, including a full year of Iraq, Jamaica growth ($80M-$110M over 5 years), Petrobangla QE contribution ($15M then $18M), and uplift from Express FSRU re-contracting.

“I think you've got the building blocks out there for where we have high confidence on EBITDA in 2027. You know we don't guide to it, but we've -- and Dana can speak to that further, but I think the building blocks are there, and it's easy to piece together where we see EBITDA going to in '27.”

asked by Elias Jossen · answered by Steven Kobos

Can you discuss project expansions for Iraq given regional instability and provide more color on the CapEx revision?

Steven Kobos emphasized Iraq's critical need for LNG due to a massive energy deficit and unreliable cross-border pipelines. He highlighted the strong contractual upside beyond the minimum 250 million scf/day. The CapEx revision was attributed to a change in scope after detailed engineering and a commercial trade-off with the Iraqis, where Excelerate took on CapEx scope in exchange for lower OpEx. The 5x EBITDA build multiple remains intact.

“Contract says a minimum take-or-pay of 250 million scf of gas. So that's what we're talking to you all about. But you should really be taking seriously the contractual upside that exists in that project because the fundamentals they're just -- they're robust. They're the strongest I can imagine for LNG demand globally.”

asked by Elias Jossen · answered by Steven Kobos

With Jamaica fully integrated, what are the near-term optimization opportunities and additional growth options, particularly over the next 12 months to a couple of years?

Oliver Simpson stated that near-term opportunities in Jamaica involve using existing infrastructure to deliver more LNG to customers, including small-scale solutions. Longer-term, there are bigger asset plays and capital plays in Jamaica and the broader Caribbean, using Jamaica as a hub. These opportunities are expected to progress in 2027 and beyond.

“So I think in Jamaica itself, we have opportunities near term using the existing infrastructure, the existing assets to deliver more LNG to customers. And we've had some success there on the small scale, and we're continuing to look at those solutions.”

asked by Theresa Chen · answered by Oliver Simpson

Can you expand on conversations in India and the Haldia JV? Is it a longer-term project beyond the 3-year window or could it fit within the next 3 years?

Steven Kobos indicated that the Haldia project in India could fit within 2028. He emphasized that it's Excelerate's first foray into India but not the last, highlighting the enormous market and demand pockets. The company aims to get into the market, starting with smaller-scale initiatives.

“I think it could fit within '28 for sure. In terms of how to think about it, though, I think I would think about it that Excelerate does what we say we will do.”

asked by Michael Scialla · answered by Steven Kobos

What are the expectations for the Express FSRU redeployment? Will it be with the same counterparty at improved terms, or are there inbound inquiries from other potential counterparties?

Steven Kobos expressed high confidence that the Express FSRU will be re-contracted at an uplift to EBITDA, similar to previous re-contractings. He stated that discussions are ongoing globally, and the company will evaluate factors like start time, contract duration, EBITDA uplift, and integration capabilities before making a decision.

“Absolutely confident this will be the same. We are in discussions around the world about it. But again, it's kind of running a sense of what's most appealing to us in terms of start time, duration of contract, EBITDA uplift, can you integrate? Can you not?”

asked by Christopher Robertson · answered by Steven Kobos

Could Excelerate acquire another LNG conversion candidate in 2026, and is anything preventing developing multiple FSRUs simultaneously?

Steven Kobos indicated that the announced FSRU conversion is not the end of their plans, hinting at 'conversion #1'. He stated they won't wait until 2028 for the first conversion's delivery to start on others, given the significant market opportunity. He expects future conversions to target similar 5x-7x build multiples as other quality midstream companies.

“I almost called the conversion in the remarks. I almost named it conversion #1 to try to hint at that. But we will -- we're not going to wait until delivery of conversion # 1 in '28 to get started.”

asked by Emma Schwartz · answered by Steven Kobos

Can you break out the split of the 5x EBITDA multiple for the Iraq project between the terminal, the ship, and the supply deal?

Dana Armstrong stated that the Iraq project is an integrated deal and the company does not intend to split out the contributions from the terminal, ship, and supply deal. All contributions will be reported under the LNG, gas, and power segment on a combined basis.

“Yes, that's an integrated deal. So that's not something that we're going to talk about on a split basis. We expected to report it. We expect to report all of it in the LNG, gas and power part of our business, and we expect to report on that on a combined basis.”

asked by Zackery Van Everen · answered by Dana Armstrong