Firefly Aerospace (FLY) Q2 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Inquired about the Lockheed Martin extension, hypersonic task order, and the shift of Alpha Flight 8 to Q4, asking about Alpha's overall readiness and ability to meet demand.

Jason Kim emphasized strong and amplified demand for Alpha launches from existing and new customers, including the Lockheed Martin extension and a second hypersonic task order. He highlighted record production from the factory, with Flight 8 in integration and testing, and Flights 9, 10, and 11 progressing well. He noted that production ramp-up is key to meeting demand, not backlog or demand itself.

“The demand for launch is increasingly getting amplified. This is the most constrained you see in launch. And so there is strong demand that we see with Alpha.”

asked by Sheila Kahyaoglu · answered by Jason Kim

Followed up on the reduction from 4 to 3 Alpha launches in 2026, asking if it was due to production or customer readiness, and about the target for 2027 (e.g., 12 launches).

Jason Kim stated that customer availability, regulatory approvals, range availability, and weather are out of their control, but production has ramped up significantly. He expressed high confidence for 2027, noting that a majority of the 2027 manifest is sold out. He also mentioned bringing Wallops online in 2027 and Sweden in 2028 to increase launch cadence.

“I've always mentioned that there's always risk with customer availability and regulatory approvals and range availability as well as weather. Those are things that we'll still have to address but are out of our control.”

asked by Sheila Kahyaoglu · answered by Jason Kim

Asked for a breakdown of the 60% sequential growth in Spacecraft revenue, specifically between the 5 Lunar missions, AI software strength, and accelerated hardware orders.

Darren Ma explained that the growth was due to a mix of factors, including an accelerated hardware order from a national security customer impacting Q2 timing. He highlighted the strength of diversified revenue streams, particularly the 5 parallel Lunar lander programs and AI software solutions, which help offset launch revenue impacts.

“I mentioned the hardware order that was -- that impacted the timing into Q2. So that was an acceleration from a national security customer. And one of the strengths in this business is really the diversified revenue streams from multiple product lines, right?”

asked by Alex · answered by Darren Ma

Asked for an update on the expected timing of the first Eclipse flight.

Jason Kim reiterated the strong demand for launch capacity. He detailed the progress on Eclipse, including Miranda engine qualification (150+ hot fire tests, flight-like mission duty cycle test), COPV qualification, and flight hardware production. He stated they are working towards delivering the first stage to Northrop Grumman no earlier than next year (2027) for an inaugural launch no earlier than 2027.

“We're working with Northrop Grumman on delivering the vehicle, the first stage no earlier in the next year. And this is an inaugural launch of no earlier than 2027.”

asked by Alex · answered by Jason Kim

Asked about expectations for NASA CLPS task orders for the rest of the year, specifically if CLPS 1.0 is done or if more is expected, and the status of CLPS 2.0.

Jason Kim confirmed that CLPS 1.0 is not done, with three more opportunities (2 lander missions, 1 orbiter imaging service) in H2 FY26. He noted their expanded capacity positions them well for these. He also confirmed they submitted a bid for CLPS 2.0, with designs for larger landers to support Moon base infrastructure.

“Yes, we're never done with CLPS 1.0. There's 3 more opportunities in the second half of this year.”

asked by Xin Yu · answered by Jason Kim

Asked about the biggest swing factors for the $420M-$450M revenue guidance and if the reiterated guidance, despite fewer Alpha launches, implies an increase in ex-Alpha guidance.

Darren Ma confirmed that 95% of the midpoint revenue is booked, giving high confidence. He stated that winning additional CLPS missions could push them to the higher end. He acknowledged the diversified revenue streams (FORGE, Lunar missions, Golden Dome, GBRD, SkyFall) allow them to offset the impact of fewer Alpha launches.

“If we wind up winning one of these additional CLPS missions in the end of the year, it could push us towards the higher end of the range. And our business is really well diversified.”

asked by Michael Leshock · answered by Darren Ma

Asked how profitability and cash milestones evolve as new awards convert to revenue, especially for proven technologies.

Darren Ma explained that Spacecraft contracts are milestone-driven, providing cash flow for teams and long-lead items. He noted that bolt-on opportunities (commercial payloads, Ocula imaging) for Blue Ghost missions offer gross margin expansion. He also stated that increased Alpha cadence is a 'big unlock' for future gross margin expansion.

“So we're able to really just -- and on top of that, after we close some of these contracts, let's take the Blue Ghost orders from NASA, for example, these linear missions really have bolt-on opportunities, as Jason talked about, that allows us to expand gross margins, whether they're from commercial payloads or from imaging services like Ocula, which I would expect to be much higher gross margins.”

asked by Kristine Liwag · answered by Darren Ma

Asked for a breakdown of the $1.5 billion backlog between Launch and Spacecraft, and how much covers the next 12 months versus longer term.

Darren Ma stated they do not break out backlog by Launch vs. Spacecraft. He noted that the $117.7 million Q2 revenue was almost entirely backlog conversion. He also mentioned that some contracts, like the Lockheed Martin multi-launch agreement, extend through 2031, making a straightforward near-term vs. long-term split difficult.

“We haven't really broken that out. But when you look at it from a conversion perspective, this quarter, $117.7 million, pretty much all of that was backlog conversion.”

asked by Sujeeva DeSilva · answered by Darren Ma