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    GEVO
    Earnings call· Jun 2026(Q2 FY26)

    Gevo Q2 FY26 earnings call GEVO

    Aug 6, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Gevo Q2 FY26 — Strong Operating Results and Doubled EBITDA Outlook

    Gevo delivered solid Q2 FY26 operating performance, driven by its low-carbon ethanol and renewable natural gas businesses, leading to a significantly raised full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook. The company is executing a disciplined three-stage expansion plan at its Jibo North Dakota complex, focusing on de-bottlenecking, capacity expansion, and future SAF production, while strategically exiting non-core projects. The core carbon business is demonstrating strong cash-generating power, supporting future growth initiatives.

    Highlights

    5

    • Revenue increased 7% year-over-year to $47 million in Q2 FY26, reflecting consistent operations.

    • Gross profit grew 70% in the past six months compared to the same period last year, reaching $36 million in H1 FY26.

    • Full-year 2026 non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA outlook more than doubled to over $60 million from a prior estimate of $30 million.

    • Canada Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) pathway approval provides access to a >1 billion gallon per year compliance market, with $17 million in banked credits already sold for Q3 recognition.

    • De-bottlenecking activities at Jibo North Dakota are on track and on budget, expected to increase low-carbon ethanol capacity to 75 million gallons per year by end of 2026.

    Concerns

    5

    • Recognized a $176 million one-time non-cash impairment charge related to discontinued ATJ 60 project activities in Lake Preston, South Dakota, and other non-core initiatives.

    • Operating expenses (excluding the non-cash impairment) were up 18% over Q2 FY25, primarily due to non-recurring employee severance and accelerated equity award charges.

    • GAAP net loss attributable to Jivo was $177 million, or $0.75 per share, in Q2 FY26.

    • Securing additional financeable offtake agreements remains a gating item for reaching Final Investment Decision (FID) on the ATJ30 project.

    • External commercialization of the Verity platform has been slower than anticipated, partly due to lack of clarity on 45Z agricultural benefits.

    Guidance & targets

    9
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA
    more than $60 million
    high materiality
    High
    Low-carbon ethanol capacity (de-bottlenecking)
    75 million gallons per year
    medium materiality
    High
    Carbon business revenue run rate
    over $30 million per year
    medium materiality
    High
    45Z tax credits generation
    more than $70 million
    high materiality
    High
    Jibo North Dakota expansion financing completion
    second half of 2026
    high materiality
    High
    Jibo North Dakota expansion completion
    2028
    high materiality
    Medium
    ATJ30 Final Investment Decision (FID)
    by the end of the year
    high materiality
    Medium
    2027 Adjusted EBITDA
    broadly in line with our current 2026 full-year target
    high materiality
    Medium
    Operating cash flow
    neutral to positive
    medium materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    24
    Revenue
    $47 millionup 7% YoY
    Q2 FY26

    Compared to $43 million in the same quarter last year.

    Revenue
    $89 millionup 23% YoY
    H1 FY26

    Compared to H1 FY25, reflecting full six months benefit of Red Trail Energy acquisition.

    Gross profit
    $20 millionup from $19 million YoY
    Q2 FY26

    Compared to $19 million in Q2 FY25.

    Gross margin
    43%vs 44% YoY
    Q2 FY26

    Compared to 44% in Q2 FY25.

    Gross profit
    $36 millionup from $21 million YoY
    H1 FY26

    Compared to $21 million in H1 FY25, reflecting full six months benefit of Red Trail Energy acquisition and 45Z tax credit optimization.

    Non-cash impairment charge
    $176 million
    Q2 FY26

    Related to discontinued ATJ 60 project in Lake Preston, South Dakota, and other non-core initiatives. Does not impact cash position, liquidity, or operating cash flow.

    Operating expenses (excluding impairment)
    up 18%YoY
    Q2 FY26

    Primarily due to non-recurring employee severance and accelerated equity award charges.

    GAAP Net loss attributable to Jivo
    $177 million
    Q2 FY26

    On a GAAP basis.

    GAAP EPS
    $0.75
    Q2 FY26

    On a GAAP basis.

    Non-GAAP Adjusted Net loss attributable to Jivo
    $1 million
    Q2 FY26

    On a non-GAAP basis.

    Non-GAAP Adjusted EPS
    $0.01
    Q2 FY26

    On a non-GAAP basis.

    Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA
    $11 million
    Q2 FY26

    Q2 results did not include revenue related to recently approved CFR pathway.

    45Z tax credits generated
    more than $70 millionvs $52 million FY25
    FY26

    Expected to monetize in 2026, driven by updated policy guidance and operational efficiencies.

    45Z tax credits sold
    $20 million
    after Q2 FY26

    Closed on sale after the end of the second quarter.

    Remaining 45Z tax credits to monetize
    approximately $50 million
    by year end

    Expected to monetize and receive proceeds by year end.

    Canada CFR bank credits sold
    $17 million
    Q3 FY26

    Expected to be recognized in the third quarter, applies retroactively to credits banked from 2025.

    Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash
    $58 million
    Q2 FY26 end

    Does not include approximately $16 million of cash proceeds from 45Z credits collected since Q2 end.

    Cash proceeds from 45Z credits collected
    approximately $16 million
    since Q2 FY26 end

    Not included in the $58 million cash balance at Q2 end.

    Retroactive CFR credits proportion
    more than 40%
    2026

    Proportion of bank credits realized in 2026 that were retroactive.

    CDR purchases committed globally
    $12 billion
    to date

    Overall macro on the voluntary carbon market.

    CDR purchases delivered globally
    3.3%
    to date

    Percentage of committed CDR purchases that have actually been delivered.

    CDR tons sold to Nasdaq
    8,500 tons
    recent

    Second year Nasdaq bought carbon from Gevo on a substantial size buy.

    EBITDA challenge opportunities identified
    over three dozen
    ongoing

    Identified as part of the EBITDA challenge, with about half being low-hanging fruit.

    EBITDA challenge opportunities implemented
    50%
    to date

    Expected to manifest in Q3 and Q4 FY26 financial performance.

    Industry KPIs

    2
    MetricValueDetails
    Sanctioned expansion backlog$600 millionUSD
    Basin level production volume75 million gallons per yeargallons

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    Red Trail EnergyAcquisition of assets

    Acquisition of assets that contributed to revenue growth in the first half of 2026.

    Aura EnergyFinancing arrangement for Jibo North Dakota expansion

    Arrangement for financing the doubling of capacity at Jibo North Dakota to 150 million gallons per year.

    Capital programs

    3
    Jibo North Dakota de-bottlenecking (Stage 1)on track
    Period spend: about $24 million
    Funding: fully funded

    Benefit: increase low carbon ethanol capacity to 75 million gallons per year

    Approximately half of the capital is for operational reliability, the other half for de-bottlenecking to improve output from 67 million gallons to 75 million gallons.

    Jibo North Dakota expansion (Stage 2)advancing
    Funding: Aura Energy and project level debt

    Benefit: doubling capacity to about 150 million gallons per year of low-carbon ethanol

    Financing efforts are on track for completion in H2 2026. Engineering, permitting, and initial equipment procurement are underway. Gevo expects to maintain a controlling interest and consolidate the plant.

    Project North Star (ATJ30)advancing$600 million
    Funding: non-dilutive project level financing

    Benefit: 30 million gallon-per-year alcohol-to-jet development project

    FEL3 engineering estimates completed on schedule in Q2 FY26. The $600 million estimate remains within the expected range and accuracy of an FEL2 estimate, providing higher confidence. Securing additional financeable offtake agreements is a gating item for FID.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Non-cash impairment charge from discontinued projectsQ2 FY26

    $176 million

    Mitigation: The charge is non-cash and does not impact the company's cash position, liquidity, or operating cash flow outlook. It also does not affect the underlying economics of Jibo North Dakota or the ability to execute its development plan there.

    Increased operating expensesQ2 FY26

    up 18% YoY (excluding impairment)

    Mitigation: Primarily due to non-recurring employee severance and accelerated equity award charges. The company is focused on fiscal discipline and implementing its 'EBITDA challenge' to manage costs.

    Need for additional financeable offtake agreements for ATJ30by year-end 2026

    Gating item for FID

    Mitigation: Management is making progress advancing these complex multi-year economic commitments from the current term sheet stage and is pursuing non-dilutive project-level financing.

    Slower external uptake of Verity platformongoing

    Discussed, not quantified

    Mitigation: Primarily due to lack of clarity on 45Z agricultural benefits. The company continues to serve existing customers and believes demand will grow as the carbon business model becomes more widespread.

    Lag in 45Z cash proceedsquarter-to-quarter variability

    Discussed, not quantified

    Mitigation: The cash proceeds from 45Z can lag behind the quarter in which the credit is generated, resulting in some quarter-to-quarter variability in cash flow from operations. However, the company expects meaningful positive operating cash flow in H2 FY26.

    What to watch in Q3 FY26

    5

    Jibo North Dakota de-bottlenecking completion

    end of 2026
    Currenton track and on budget
    Targetcompletion by end of 2026

    Why it matters

    This project is expected to increase low-carbon ethanol capacity to 75 million gallons per year, enhancing revenues and expanding margins.

    Our de-bottlenecking activities in our Jibo North Dakota facility remain on target to increase our low carbon ethanol capacity to 75 million gallons per year by the end of 2026.

    Q&A highlights

    8

    How much of the $60 million adjusted EBITDA target for 2026 is from one-time retroactive Canadian credits versus the true recurring earnings power of the business?

    Paul Bloom clarified that the carbon business has a run rate of about $30 million per year. While a significant portion (>40%) of the bank CFR credits realized this year contribute to the $60 million, the completion of de-bottlenecking by year-end means most of the $60 million is expected to be a repeatable run rate into 2027, with the company aiming to exceed it through 45Z tax credit increases.

    “So when we think about that, there's a big component of those bank credits that really are in a run rate for 2026. So that is a big component going forward. But I would say that when you think about the 60 million that we're talking about, going forward, remember we're going to be completing the de-bottle decking by the end of the year. So we believe that this is really the upside of that, minus maybe these one-time events. We're really kind of flattish going INTO 2027.”

    asked by Jeffrey Grampp · answered by Paul Bloom

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strategic Shift to Jibo North Dakota and Project Discontinuation

    Gevo has finalized its decision to exit ATJ 60 project activities in Lake Preston, South Dakota, and formally discontinued other non-core projects. This strategic shift is due to the Jibo North Dakota complex being better suited for growth, combining strong carbon capture, advantaged local feedstocks, established logistics, and a business-friendly state. The discontinuation resulted in a $176 million one-time📎 non-cash impairment charge, which does not impact cash position or operating cash flow.

    02

    Canada Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) Approval and Carbon Business

    The company secured Canada Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) pathway approval for low-carbon ethanol with carbon capture and sequestration in Q2 FY26. This approval grants access to a >1 billion gallon per year compliance market, diversifying cash flows and allowing for optimization of carbon value. The approval applies retroactively to credits banked since 2025, with $17 million of these credits already sold for recognition in Q3 FY26. The carbon business is expected to deliver over $30 million per year in revenue on a run rate basis.

    03

    Jibo North Dakota Expansion Plan

    Gevo is pursuing a three-stage growth plan at its Jibo North Dakota complex. Stage one, de-bottlenecking, is on track to increase low-carbon ethanol capacity to 75 million gallons per year by the end of 2026, fully funded and budgeted. Stage two targets doubling capacity to 150 million gallons per year by 2028, with financing expected to close in H2 2026. Stage three contemplates converting one-third of the expanded capacity into Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) through Project North Star (ATJ30).

    04

    Project North Star (ATJ30) Progress and Financing

    The ATJ30 project, targeting 30 million gallons per year of SAF, completed FEL3 engineering estimates on schedule in Q2 FY26. The updated capital estimate of $600 million provides higher confidence, with underlying alcohol-to-jet process modules within 2% of previous estimates. Securing additional financeable offtake agreements is crucial for reaching FID by year-end, and the company is pursuing non-dilutive project-level financing, leveraging its existing cash generation to support the project.

    05

    Verity Carbon Accounting Digital Solutions Platform

    The Verity platform is a key component of Gevo's carbon business, enabling the tracking and optimization of carbon accounting across multiple markets (Canadian CFR, 45Z, voluntary markets). While internally it is seen as a significant value contributor, external commercialization has been slower due to factors like a lack of clarity on 45Z agricultural benefits. The company continues to serve its existing eight customers and sees future demand as the carbon business model gains traction.

    06

    EBITDA Challenge and Operational Efficiencies

    Gevo has made significant progress on its 'EBITDA challenge,' identifying over three dozen opportunities for operational efficiencies and revenue unlocking. Approximately 50% of these identified items have been implemented, with expected positive impacts on financial performance in Q3 and Q4 FY26. These initiatives focus on improving efficiency, optimizing energy consumption, and enhancing asset reliability to drive down carbon intensity and improve economics.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.