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    KEEL
    Earnings call· Jun 2026(Q2 FY26)

    Keel Infrastructure Q2 FY26 earnings call KEEL

    Aug 10, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Keel Infrastructure Q2 FY26 — Strategic Transition to HPC/AI Data Centers Advances Amidst Strong Demand

    Keel Infrastructure is executing its strategic pivot from Bitcoin mining to HPC and AI data center development, leveraging its secured power assets. The company is advancing permitting and commercial negotiations for its key sites, aiming for 2027 energization dates, while maintaining a strong liquidity position to fund its transition and future growth. Management emphasizes patience in lease signing to optimize long-term value.

    Highlights

    4

    • Secured $458 million in convertible senior notes, upsized from $350 million, strengthening liquidity to $819 million as of August 7, 2026.

    • Advanced permitting across all three priority sites (Moses Lake, Sharon, Panther Creek) with clear visibility for completion.

    • Sherbrooke data center plans advanced, securing local approvals for a 96-megawatt HPC/AI power purchase agreement, pending provincial approval.

    • Moses Lake is on track to be the first fully commissioned data center in 2027, with long-lead items delivered and modules on site.

    Concerns

    4

    • Revenue declined to $30 million in Q2 FY26 from $61 million in Q2 FY25, primarily due to decreased Bitcoin price and mining shutdown.

    • Operating loss for the quarter was $141 million, including $63 million in accelerated depreciation from mining rig shutdown.

    • Adjusted EBITDA was negative $24 million in Q2 FY26, compared to $7 million in Q2 FY25.

    • Panther Creek's final environmental permitting is taking a few months longer than anticipated, though it does not impact the 2027 power delivery schedule.

    Guidance & targets

    6
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Pennsylvania expansion capacity update
    Fulsome update on securing additional power
    medium materiality
    High
    Moses Lake data center commissioning
    Fully commissioned and energized
    high materiality
    High
    Panther Creek RFS date
    2027
    high materiality
    High
    Cash SG&A
    $100 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Bitcoin position liquidation
    Liquidate Bitcoin position
    medium materiality
    High
    Cash SG&A funding
    Fully funded
    medium materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    19
    Revenue
    $30 milliondown from $61 million in Q2 FY25
    Q2 FY26

    Primarily due to decrease in average Bitcoin price and shutdown of Moses Lake cryptocurrency mining operations.

    Operating loss
    $141 millioncompared to operating income of $11 million in Q2 FY25
    Q2 FY26

    Includes $63 million of accelerated depreciation relating to mining rig shutdown.

    Accelerated depreciation
    $63 million
    Q2 FY26

    Relating to mining rig shutdown at Panther Creek and Scrubgrass sites.

    Realized loss in Bitcoin
    $20 millioncompared to a gain of $32 million in Q2 FY25
    Q2 FY26

    Change in fair value of Bitcoin and realized loss.

    Loss from continuing operations
    $64 millioncompared to income from continuing operations of $13 million in Q2 FY25
    Q2 FY26

    Reflects the impact of revenue decline and operating loss.

    Loss per share from continuing operations
    $0.11
    Q2 FY26

    Diluted loss per share.

    Adjusted EBITDA
    -$24 millioncompared to $7 million in Q2 FY25
    Q2 FY26

    Decrease reflects decline in Bitcoin price, increased G&A for senior hires, and increased stock-based compensation.

    Cash SG&A
    $23 millionper quarter average
    H1 FY26

    Increase versus prior year driven by high-quality selective senior hires.

    Bitcoin sold
    1,085
    April 1, 2026 - August 7, 2026

    Part of the intent to liquidate Bitcoin position in 2026.

    Bitcoin balance
    1,861
    as of August 7, 2026

    Remaining balance after recent sales.

    Convertible senior notes offering
    $458 millionupsized from an initial $350 million
    June 2026

    Received strong investor demand, adding high-quality, long-term oriented investors.

    Total liquidity
    $819 millioncompared to $533 million reported at the beginning of May
    as of August 7, 2026

    Supports site development, expansion capacity, and cash SG&A through 2028.

    Moses Lake capacity
    18
    current

    Focusing on the 18 MW at this site.

    Sherbrooke HPC/AI PPA
    96
    future

    For a new data center development, pending provincial approval.

    Panther Creek secured capacity
    350
    current

    Located 2 hours from New York and Philadelphia.

    Scrubgrass load study
    750
    current

    Still in energy application phase, working with local utility.

    Sharon capacity
    110
    future

    Evaluating ways to compress timeline and improve power density.

    Pennsylvania pipeline expansion capacity
    2
    future

    Working with utility partners to convert potential expansion capacity into signed ESAs.

    Bitcoin mining daily contribution
    2-3
    daily

    Remaining rigs in Canada, but not assumed to contribute cash to liquidity forecasts.

    Industry KPIs

    2
    MetricValueDetails
    Capacity CAPEX$458 millionUSD
    Revenue growth$30 millionUSD

    Capital programs

    1
    Panther Creek and Scrubgrass power capacity expansionunderway
    Funding: $458 million convertible senior notes offering
    Start: Q2 FY26

    Benefit: Incremental power capacity

    Proceeds from the convertible notes offering are earmarked to expand power capacity at these two de-risked owned sites. Not for new development risk.

    Risks & headwinds

    3
    Broader macro environment impact on capital markets and financingOngoing

    Unquantified

    Mitigation: Company has strong liquidity ($819M) and scarce 2027 power, positioning it well against market volatility. Will evaluate capital requirements post-lease signing when cost of capital is expected to decrease.

    Panther Creek final environmental permitting delaysNear-term

    Taking a few months longer than originally anticipated

    Mitigation: Does not change planned power delivery schedule (2027 RFS), anticipated economics, or commercial progress/interest. Permits are engineering-focused and routine.

    Increased political/regulatory scrutiny on data centers in other statesOngoing

    Unquantified

    Mitigation: Such actions increase the value of sites not impacted, like Pennsylvania, which has a robust framework for large industrial consumers. Management believes blocking data center development is shortsighted given economic benefits.

    What to watch in Q3 FY26

    5

    Pennsylvania expansion capacity update

    December or January
    CurrentIncreasingly confident in ability to convert potential expansion capacity from 2-gigawatt pipeline into more signed ESAs
    TargetFulsome update on securing additional power

    Why it matters

    This will clarify the future growth pipeline beyond current secured capacity and is a key value driver for shareholders.

    We expect we should be able to provide investors with a fulsome update as early as December or January.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    How are potential tenants viewing the increasing political and regulatory scrutiny on data centers across the U.S., and how does this impact Keel's sites?

    Management noted that regulatory actions and moratoriums in some states increase the value of sites not impacted, like Pennsylvania, which already had a robust framework for large industrial consumers. This creates opportunities for Keel's sites as capacity is still needed in the U.S.

    “I think one of the advantages that we have here in Pennsylvania is Pennsylvania is kind of enjoying the second mover advantage. It definitely wasn't the first to jump up there and start building data centers.”

    asked by Gareth Gacetta · answered by Benjamin Gagnon

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strategic Transformation & Execution

    Keel Infrastructure has successfully executed its strategic pivot over the past 18 months, transitioning from Latin America and Bitcoin mining to an American HPC and AI company. The company rebuilt its balance sheet and focused on monetizing assets when power is scarce and demand is strong. This transformation reflects strategic discipline and consistent execution, delivering on commitments either on time or early.

    02

    Permitting & Leasing Progress

    Significant progress has been made in advancing permitting across all three priority sites: Moses Lake, Sharon, and Panther Creek, with clear visibility for completion. The scarcity of near-term power in key locations is creating a strong negotiating position for Keel, driving commercial interest from multiple potential tenants, including leading AI companies, GPU clouds, and large enterprises. Ganesh Aiyer was appointed President to lead these commercial efforts.

    03

    Expansion Capacity & Sherbrooke Development

    Keel is increasingly confident in converting its 2-gigawatt Pennsylvania pipeline into more signed ESAs for HPC through 2030, with an update expected by December or January. In Sherbrooke, Quebec, the company secured all necessary local approvals to consolidate three legacy Bitcoin PPAs into a single 96-megawatt HPC and AI PPA for a new data center development, pending provincial approval. This project aims to create a technologically advanced data center in a high-demand, captive market.

    04

    Operational Derisking & Supply Chain

    The company has taken concrete steps to derisk project timelines and ensure state-of-the-art infrastructure delivery. This includes accepting delivery of long-lead items and the first Vertiv modules at Moses Lake, completing inspections for backup generation equipment, taking delivery of multiple transformers in Sharon, and executing final fiber contracts across all three sites. All US Bitcoin mining operations have been decommissioned.

    05

    Site-Specific Updates

    Moses Lake is expected to be the first site online in 2027, generating HPC revenues and durable free cash flow, with strong interest from faster-moving AI companies. Sharon has secured full zoning and land development approval, with final environmental permits progressing, and is evaluating designs for a 110-megawatt phase. Panther Creek, with 350 MW of secured capacity and potential for 500 MW+, is in the final stages of environmental permits, with high commercial interest from large, sophisticated AI companies.

    06

    Capital Strategy & Liquidity

    Keel closed a $458 million offering of convertible senior notes, upsized from $350 million, bringing total liquidity to $819 million as of August 7, 2026. This capital is specifically earmarked to expand power capacity at existing, de-risked sites (Panther Creek and Scrubgrass). The strong liquidity position allows Keel to advance sites at the pace customers require and make commercial decisions focused on long-term shareholder returns, evaluating project financing post-lease signing.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.