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Kinross Gold (KGC) Q3 FY25 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Sep 2025 (Q3 FY25)· Materials· Nov 5, 2025

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Kinross Gold Q3 FY25 — Record Free Cash Flow and Increased Shareholder Returns

Kinross Gold reported a strong Q3 FY25, marked by record free cash flow generation and robust operating margins, leading to an increased commitment to shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases. The company is focused on disciplined capital allocation, including debt repayment, and is advancing several organic growth projects to maintain its production profile. Permitting for the Great Bear AEX program is experiencing delays, but the main project remains on track for its 2029 target.

Highlights

5
  • Delivered record free cash flow of nearly $700 million in Q3 FY25, and over $1.7 billion year-to-date.

  • Achieved strong operating margins of over $2,300 per ounce, with an average realized gold price of $3,458 per ounce.

  • Increased return of capital to shareholders for FY25 to over $750 million, including a 17% dividend increase and an additional $100 million in share repurchases.

  • Ended Q3 FY25 in a net cash position of almost $500 million, with total liquidity increasing by over $600 million to $3.4 billion.

  • Great Bear main project remains on schedule for first production in 2029, with detailed engineering and procurement progressing well.

Concerns

4
  • Cost of sales increased quarter-over-quarter to $1,145 per ounce due to planned mine sequencing and higher gold price royalties.

  • All-in sustaining costs increased compared to Q2 FY25 due to mine sequencing, royalties, and timing of sustaining capital expenditures.

  • Expected higher tax payments in H1 FY26, with over $300 million related to Brazil in January and close to $400 million in Q1 FY26 in total, due to higher gold prices in FY25.

  • Two AEX water permits for Great Bear are taking longer than anticipated to finalize, though not currently impacting the main project timeline.

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Full-year FY25 Production
Slightly above the midpoint of guidance
high materiality
High
Full-year FY25 Operating Costs and AISC
On track to meet full year guidance
high materiality
High
Full-year FY25 All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC)
Within the upper range of our guidance
medium materiality
High
Full-year FY25 Total Capital Expenditures
$1.15 billion
high materiality
High
Great Bear Main Project First Production
2029
high materiality
High
Great Bear AEX Exploration Decline Commencement
Summer of 2026
low materiality
Medium

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
Paracatu
Production was in line with the prior quarter, and cost of sales decreased quarter-over-quarter. Saw strong mining rates, mill recoveries, and higher grades. Remains firmly on track to meet its guidance range.
Production: 150,000 ouncesCost of Sales: $933 per ounce
————
Tasiast
Delivered budgeted production, in line with the prior quarter, supported by strong mill performance and high recoveries from recent optimization initiatives. Capital development of the Fennec satellite pit ramped up. Remains on track to meet production guidance and target cost of sales for the year.
Production: 121,000 ouncesCost of Sales: $889 per ounceTarget Production (FY25): 500,000 ouncesTarget Cost of Sales (FY25): $860 per ounce
————
La Coipa
Performance improved over the prior quarter as planned, with production and costs improving as mining transitioned into higher-grade ore from Phase 7. Production is expected to be stronger in Q4. Remains on track to meet full year guidance.
Production: 58,000 ouncesCost of Sales: $1,199 per ounceFull Year Guidance (FY25): 230,000 ounces
————
U.S. Operations (Collective)
Collectively delivered production as planned and remain on track to meet full year guidance for both production and cost of sales.
Production: 175,000 ouncesCost of Sales: $1,469 per ounceFull Year Guidance (FY25): 685,000 ouncesFull Year Cost of Sales Guidance (FY25): $1,420 per ounce
————
Fort Knox (Alaska)
Production was in line with the prior quarter. Cost of sales was higher due to more operating waste tonnes.
Production: 96,000 ouncesCost of Sales: $1,372 per ounce
————
Bald Mountain (Nevada)
Production decreased over the prior quarter due to lower grades as planned, resulting in a higher cost of sales. Mining of Redbird 1 continued to ramp up.
Production: 42,000 ouncesCost of Sales: $1,148 per ounce
————
Round Mountain (Nevada)
Production was in line with the prior quarter. Cost of sales increased primarily due to more operating waste tonnes as Phase S transitions from capital waste into operating waste. Initial production from Phase S continued to ramp up.
Production: 37,000 ouncesCost of Sales: $2,095 per ounce
————

Product announcements

ProductTypeDetails
Redbird 2 (Bald Mountain)milestone
Round Mountain Phase X Underground Projectmilestone
Curlew Projectmilestone
Great Bear Main Projectmilestone
Great Bear AEX Programmilestone

Deals & partnerships

Chirano mine Sale of Chirano mine $225M

Received $136 million in Q3 FY25 and an additional $96 million subsequent to the quarter, totaling $232 million since the beginning of Q3 FY25.

Capital programs

Redbird 2 (Bald Mountain) underway

Benefit:Augment production profile through concurrent satellite pit mining

Study work for Redbird 2 and numerous additional satellite opportunities is ongoing. Recent exploration and technical work has been progressing well to support an investment decision for Redbird 2.

Round Mountain Phase X Underground Project underway
Spent to date: 5 kilometers advanced

Benefit:Bulk tonnage underground mining opportunity, targeting over 100,000 ounces per annum

Underground development is progressing well with over 5 kilometers advanced to date. Engineering, technical study work, and permitting progressing to support a project decision in 2026. Infill drilling results have been positive, supporting potential for a larger initial resource.

Curlew Project underway

Benefit:High-margin underground mining potential, targeting up to 100,000 ounces per year

Engineering and technical studies on the high-grade resource are on track to support a project decision in 2026. Initial development of the Roadrunner decline and further extensions of the North Stealth development completed this quarter.

Great Bear Main Project underway
Spent to date: 30% design review for mill completed in Q3

Benefit:Mill, tailings management facility, site infrastructure for first production

Main project remains on schedule for first production in 2029, subject to permitting. Detailed engineering for key items continues to progress well. Initial procurement activities for major process and water treatment equipment have commenced.

Great Bear AEX Program underway

Benefit:Underground drill access for infill and exploration drilling

Earthworks activities are well advanced. Natural gas pipeline complete and commissioned, AEX camp operational. Water treatment plant building enclosed. Initial development of portal box cut progressing. Exploration decline forecast to commence Summer 2026, pending receipt of provincial permits.

Risks & headwinds

Higher Royalty Costs Q3 FY25 and ongoing

Impacted Q3 FY25 cost of sales and all-in sustaining costs

Mitigation:Cost management strategies in place to manage overall costs.

Higher Tax Payments H1 FY26

Over $300 million for Brazil in January FY26, close to $400 million total for Q1 FY26

Mitigation:Anticipated and factored into cash flow outlook; related to income realized in FY25 due to higher gold prices.

Permitting Delays (Great Bear AEX) Ongoing

Two water permits for AEX are taking more time than anticipated

Mitigation:Not currently impacting the main project timeline; construction activities at AEX site will continue uninterrupted throughout winter months as current activities do not require water-related permits. No direct link between AEX and main project permits.

Inflationary Pressures Ongoing

General inflation mentioned as always present

Mitigation:Focus on cost management, contract optimization, labor efficiencies, maintenance improvements, and rightsizing consumables.

What to watch in Q4 FY25

FY26 Capital Allocation Plans

Q1 2026
Current Budget cycle underway, aiming for healthy capital returns and reinvestment
Target Detailed guidance on capital allocation, including dividends, share repurchases, and project investments

Why it matters

Provides clarity on the company's strategy for deploying significant free cash flow and balancing shareholder returns with organic growth.

As we look into next year, frankly speaking, we're right in the middle of our budget cycle. We do give our guidance, as you know, with the year-end in mid-February. That's typically when we give an update.

Find out whether KGC delivers this. Inve re-checks your case every morning.

Q&A highlights

Are Kinross working on cost reduction efforts similar to peers, and can examples of productivity improvements be provided?

Kinross is actively working on cost management initiatives globally, including optimizing contracts, improving labor efficiencies, enhancing maintenance, and rightsizing consumables. They are also conducting significant training across sites to standardize performance.

“No, as I said in my remarks, we have a number of different initiatives globally, different projects to focus on, different cost elements, significant focus on working with our contractors and turning them into true business partners where the relationship works for both of us.”

asked by Fahad Tariq · answered by Claude J. Schimper

2 min read 5 chapters

Detailed narrative

Strong Financial Performance and Capital Allocation

Kinross delivered a strong Q3 FY25, reporting nearly $700 million in free cash flow and over $1.7 billion year-to-date, driven by robust operating margins of over $2,300 per ounce. The company ended the quarter with a net cash position of almost $500 million and $3.4 billion in total liquidity.

This financial strength enabled a disciplined capital allocation strategy, including the redemption of $500 million in 2027 senior notes and an increase in shareholder returns to over $750 million for FY25, comprising a 17% dividend increase and $600 million in share repurchases.

Operational Highlights and Cost Management

The company's portfolio of mines performed well, with Q3 production on plan at 504,000 ounces. Paracatu and Tasiast were key contributors, delivering substantial production at good costs. La Coipa showed improved performance due to higher-grade ore, and U.S. assets met budget.

Kinross is actively implementing cost management strategies, focusing on contract optimization, labor efficiencies, maintenance improvements, and rightsizing consumables to capture margin in the strong gold price environment.

Project Pipeline Advancement

Kinross is making steady progress on its project pipeline, including Curlew, Great Bear, and Lobo-Marte, leveraging an extensive resource base of 26 million ounces M&I and 13 million ounces inferred. Near-term projects like Redbird 2 at Bald Mountain, Phase X at Round Mountain, and Curlew are advancing towards investment decisions in 2026.

Great Bear's main project remains on track for first production in 2029, with detailed engineering and procurement underway, despite some delays in AEX permitting.

Sustainability and Community Engagement

The company highlighted its commitment to sustainability, including contributions to local educational infrastructure in Mauritania and Paracatu's tailings facilities receiving a top-level AA classification for safety. Bald Mountain earned the Nevada Excellence in Mine Reclamation and Earthworks Award, underscoring Kinross's focus on responsible mining practices and positive community impact across its operations.

Outlook and Future Capital Allocation

Kinross is firmly positioned to achieve its full-year FY25 production and cost targets, with production expected to be slightly above the midpoint of guidance. While debt repayment is largely complete for now, the company anticipates higher tax payments in H1 FY26 due to strong FY25 gold prices.

Management indicated a continued focus on healthy capital returns and reinvestment in organic opportunities, with further details on the FY26 budget and capital allocation to be provided in Q1 2026.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.