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    KOF
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    COCA COLA FEMSA SAB DE CV Q4 FY25 earnings call KOF

    Feb 24, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Coca-Cola FEMSA Q4 FY25 — Strong Volume Growth Despite Headwinds, Digital Enablers Drive Share Gains

    Coca-Cola FEMSA navigated a challenging 2025 with sequential volume improvements culminating in record December performance, driven by strong execution and digital enablers in South America, particularly Brazil. While Mexico faced consumer softness and an excise tax increase, the company's agile response and focus on affordability and digital tools are expected to mitigate impacts, reaffirming its long-term sustainable growth model.

    Highlights

    5
    • Consolidated volume increased 1.3% in Q4 FY25 to 1.09 billion unit cases, with December marking the strongest month in company history.

    • Operating income increased 13.3% to MXN 13.7 billion, with operating margin expanding 160 basis points to 17.6%.

    • Brazil achieved its highest Q4 volume on record, with Coca-Cola Zero growing 44% and Sprite Zero 93% in FY25.

    • Juntos+ Advisor improved geo efficiency by 5.5 percentage points in Mexico and 9.2 percentage points in Brazil.

    • Full-year 2025 results demonstrated top and bottom line growth with resilient operating and adjusted EBITDA margins.

    Concerns

    4
    • Gross profit margin contracted 60 basis points to 46.7% in Q4 FY25 due to unfavorable mix, hedging positions, and fixed costs.

    • Mexico volumes contracted 0.9% year-on-year in Q4 FY25, with an expected low to mid-single-digit decline in FY26 due to the excise tax increase.

    • Normalized operating income (excluding insurance recoveries) declined 2.1% in Q4 FY25, resulting in an operating margin contraction of 90 basis points.

    • Comprehensive financial results recorded an expense of MXN 1.4 billion in Q4 FY25, up from MXN 980 million in Q4 FY24, driven by reduced interest income and higher interest expenses.

    Guidance & targets

    7
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Mexico Volume Growth
    low to mid-single-digit decline
    high materiality
    High
    Brazil Volume Growth
    low to mid-single digits range
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Capex to Revenues Ratio
    7% to 7.5%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    New Brazil Plant Start
    around 2030
    low materiality
    Medium
    Mexico Gross Margins
    a bit of pressure
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Mexico EBIT Margins
    as close to flat as possible
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Consolidated Volume Growth
    flattish to slightly positive
    high materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    8
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Consolidated
    Consolidated performance driven by revenue management initiatives, partially offset by unfavorable mix and currency translation. Operating income and Adjusted EBITDA positively impacted by insurance claims recovery.
    Volume: 1.09 billion unit cases (+1.3% YoY)Revenue (currency-neutral): +6% YoYGross Profit: MXN 36.3 billion (+1.8% YoY)Operating Income: MXN 13.7 billion (+13.3% YoY)Adjusted EBITDA: MXN 18.2 billion (+12.8% YoY)
    MXN 77.7 billion+2.9%
    Mexico and Central America
    Revenue growth driven by revenue growth management initiatives, partially offset by unfavorable mix and currency translation. Gross margin expanded due to lower raw material costs. Operating income declined due to increased marketing, depreciation, and labor.
    Volume: Even YoYRevenue (currency-neutral): +3.3% YoYGross Profit: MXN 20.8 billion (+2.6% YoY)Operating Income: MXN 6.9 billion (-1.1% YoY)Adjusted EBITDA: +1.3% YoY
    MXN 42.2 billion+1.6%
    Mexico
    Volume contraction improved sequentially, aided by price pack architecture adjustments and affordability initiatives. Coke Zero maintained solid growth.
    -0.9%
    Guatemala
    Volume growth achieved despite a decelerating macro environment and rising insecurity. Productivity initiatives implemented for a leaner operating model.
    Unit Cases: 48.9 million
    +3.5%
    South America
    Volume growth across all territories. Revenue driven by revenue management initiatives, offsetting unfavorable currency translation. Operating income and Adjusted EBITDA significantly impacted by insurance recovery in Brazil.
    Volume: 504.1 million unit cases (+3% YoY)Revenue (currency-neutral): +9.5% YoYGross Profit: +0.6% YoYOperating Income: MXN 6.8 billion (+32.8% YoY)Adjusted EBITDA: MXN 8.5 billion (+29.5% YoY)
    MXN 35.4 billion+4.6%
    Brazil
    Volume growth driven by a historic December, strong market execution, and favorable weather. Gained share in all relevant categories. Plant in Rio Grande do Sul fully reopened in May.
    +2.6%
    Colombia
    Volume growth as macroeconomic environment gradually recovers and excise tax effects cycle. Portfolio initiatives adjusted price pack architecture. Coke Zero remains a growth engine.
    +4.5%
    Argentina
    Volume growth sustained through agile response to volatile environment, enhancing affordability and accelerating single-serve mix.
    +3%

    Operational metrics

    45
    Gross Margin
    46.7%-60 bps YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Margin contraction driven mainly by unfavorable mix and hedging positions, coupled with fixed costs such as labor and depreciation, partially offset by better sweetener and PET costs.

    Operating Margin
    17.6%+160 bps YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Positively impacted by the recognition of insurance claims recovered in Brazil and Mexico, net of expenses for MXN 1.1 billion.

    Normalized Operating Margin
    16.1%-90 bps YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Excluding insurance recovery and related expenses, normalized operating margin contracted due to higher depreciation and labor expenses, partially offset by expense controls and an operating foreign exchange gain.

    Adjusted EBITDA Margin
    23.4%+210 bps YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Including insurance recoveries.

    Normalized Adjusted EBITDA Margin
    21.9%+30 bps YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Excluding insurance effects and related expenses.

    Majority Net Income
    MXN 7.5 billion+3% YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Increase driven by operating income growth, offset by higher comprehensive financial results and effective tax rate.

    Coke Zero Volume Growth
    14%YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Maintained solid growth pace.

    Stills Portfolio Volume Growth
    7.4%YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Driven mainly by Monster, FUZE Tea, and Santa Clara.

    Monster Volume Growth
    41%YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Strong performance.

    FUZE Tea Volume Growth
    33%YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Strong performance.

    Santa Clara Volume Growth
    28%YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Strong performance.

    Juntos+ Advisor Geo Efficiency
    96.5%+5.5 percentage points from 91%
    Q4 FY25

    Overall performance improving geo efficiency or visitation.

    Coke Zero Volume Growth
    44%YoY
    FY25

    Delivered strong growth aligned with strategic intent to accelerate growth in non-caloric beverages.

    Sprite Zero Volume Growth
    93%YoY
    FY25

    Achieved accelerated growth, following a similar playbook as Coke Zero.

    Sprite Zero Volume Share of Total Sprite
    >20%
    FY25

    Sprite Zero now represents more than 20% of total Sprite volume.

    Monster Volume Growth
    double-digit growth
    FY25

    Energy drinks continue seeing double-digit growth from Monster, driven by portfolio innovation, execution and availability.

    Juices Volume Growth
    9%
    FY25

    Strong performance.

    Powerade Volume Growth
    mid-single digits
    FY25

    Strong performance.

    Alcoholic Ready-to-Drink Growth
    >50%YoY
    FY25

    Driven by Jack & Coke and Absolut Sprite.

    Juntos+ Monthly Active User Base
    >303,000
    FY25

    Surpassing goal, continuing to increase average ticket size.

    Juntos+ Premier Loyalty Customer Base Growth
    73%YoY
    FY25

    Increased significantly.

    Juntos+ Advisor Efficiency
    95.6%+9.2 percentage points
    FY25

    Supporting Brazil's positive share performance.

    Manufacturing Capacity Increase
    8.2%YoY
    FY25

    Supported by 5 new production lines.

    Warehouse Capacity Increase
    25,000 pallet positions+6% YoY
    FY25

    Achieved through state-of-the-art projects such as a vertical automated warehouse.

    Coke Zero Volume Growth
    double-digit growth
    Q4 FY25

    Remains a growth engine with ample headroom.

    Juntos+ Monthly Active Buyers
    >320,000
    FY25

    Closed the year with more than 320,000 monthly active buyers.

    Juntos+ Average Ticket Growth
    >4%YoY
    FY25

    Average ticket grew more than 4%.

    Juntos+ Digital Orders Growth
    >15%YoY
    FY25

    Digital orders increased more than 15%.

    Single-Serve Mix
    26.3%+2.3 percentage points YoY
    FY25

    Resulted in an improved competitive position and single-serve mix.

    Juntos+ Digital Orders Growth
    71%YoY
    FY25

    Resulting from the rollout of the latest version of Juntos+.

    S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment Score
    81+11 points YoY
    FY25

    Reached an all-time high, leading to inclusion in the 2026 Sustainability Yearbook.

    FTSE4Good Assessment Score
    4.1 out of 5
    FY25

    Achieved a record score.

    Comprehensive Financial Results Expense
    MXN 1.4 billionvs MXN 980 million Q4 FY24
    Q4 FY25

    Increase driven mainly by a reduction in interest income and higher interest expenses, partially offset by gains in financial instruments and foreign exchange.

    Gross Margin
    49.2%+40 bps YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Margin increase driven mainly by lower raw material costs such as sugar and PET, coupled with the appreciation of the Mexican peso.

    Operating Margin
    16.3%-40 bps YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Operating income declined 1.1%.

    Normalized Operating Margin Contraction
    170 bps
    Q4 FY25

    Excluding insurance effects, driven mainly by an increase in marketing, depreciation and labor.

    Adjusted EBITDA Margin
    22.9%flat YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Including insurance claims and related expenses.

    Normalized Adjusted EBITDA Margin Contraction
    20 bps
    Q4 FY25

    Excluding insurance claims and related expenses.

    Gross Margin
    43.7%-170 bps YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Driven mainly by an unfavorable mix and higher fixed costs such as labor and depreciation.

    Operating Margin
    19.2%+410 bps YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Positively impacted by insurance recovery in Brazil for approximately MXN 1 billion.

    Normalized Operating Margin
    16.3%+20 bps YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Excluding insurance effects, driven by expense efficiencies such as freight, marketing and maintenance.

    Adjusted EBITDA Margin
    23.9%+460 bps YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Including insurance recoveries.

    Normalized Adjusted EBITDA Margin Expansion
    90 bpsYoY
    Q4 FY25

    Excluding the effects of insurance recoveries and related expenses.

    Insurance Claims Recovered (net of expenses)
    MXN 116 million
    Q4 FY25

    Included in operating income.

    Insurance Recovery
    MXN 1 billion
    Q4 FY25

    Positively impacted operating income and EBITDA.

    Industry KPIs

    11
    MetricValueDetails
    Category brand share
    EPS organic EPS growth+3%%
    Gross operating margin46.7%%
    Organic revenue growth+6%%
    Geographic regional mix
    Unit case volume growth+1.3%%
    Aluminum packaging cost impact
    Freight logistics cost pressure
    Energy functional category health
    Pack architecture pricing actions
    Cold drink equipment distribution reach100,000cooler doors

    Capital programs

    3
    Brazil Manufacturing Capacity Expansioncompleted

    Benefit: 5 new production lines, 8.2% YoY increase in capacity

    Increased manufacturing capacity by 8.2% year-on-year, supported by 5 new production lines.

    Brazil Warehouse Capacity Expansioncompleted

    Benefit: 25,000 pallet positions, 6% YoY increase in capacity

    Warehouse capacity increased by more than 25,000 pallet positions, representing a 6% increase year-on-year, achieved through a vertical automated warehouse located next to the Itabirito plant.

    Medellin Distribution Centerunderway

    Benefit: alleviate warehouse saturation and bring additional efficiencies

    Expected to add another distribution center in Medellin in 2026.

    Risks & headwinds

    7
    Mexico Excise Tax IncreaseFY26

    large price increase

    Mitigation: Adjustments to price pack architecture, affordability initiatives, increasing returnable pack offerings, productivity and cost control initiatives.

    Soft Consumer Environment in MexicoFY25, continuing into FY26

    weaker-than-expected consumer

    Mitigation: Adjusted promotional grid, strengthened affordability initiatives, focus on recovering competitive position and protecting profitability.

    Unfavorable Mix and Hedging PositionsQ4 FY25

    60 bps gross margin contraction

    Fixed Costs (Labor, Depreciation)Q4 FY25

    contributed to gross margin contraction

    Mitigation: Expense controls such as maintenance and freight.

    Guatemala Macro Environment DecelerationH2 FY25, continuing into FY26

    volume growth at a lower-than-anticipated pace

    Mitigation: Implemented productivity initiatives for a leaner operating model, initiatives to continue colas momentum and capture share in flavors.

    Rising Insecurity in GuatemalaH2 FY25, continuing into FY26

    reductions in mobility

    Mitigation: Focus on optimizing cost structure through disciplined expense management and operational excellence.

    Aluminum Cost PressureFY26

    some pressure in gross margins

    Mitigation: Aiming to compensate with fixed cost and expense controls to deliver near-flat EBIT margins.

    What to watch in Q1 FY26

    5

    Mexico Volume Performance

    next quarter
    Current-0.9% in Q4 FY25
    TargetImpact of excise tax on Q1 FY26 volume

    Why it matters

    The excise tax increase in Mexico is a significant headwind, and its actual impact on Q1 FY26 volumes will indicate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies and consumer elasticity.

    We continue with the same guidance for 2026, which is a low to mid-single-digit decline in Mexico simply because we had to transfer the impacts of the IEPS excise tax, and that was a large price increase that we had to transfer through for the IEPS tax. So we're not changing our guidance there, and we are seeing the impacts of that tax increase in the first quarter.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    What was the volume behavior in Mexico during Q4 FY25 and what are the early signs of consumer sensitivity to the new excise tax in Q1 FY26, and how is the company reacting?

    Mexico volumes showed sequential improvement in Q4 FY25, with December being the strongest on record. However, the company maintains its FY26 guidance for a low to mid-single-digit decline due to the excise tax, and early Q1 FY26 signs show expected impacts, with elasticity behaving as imagined and the consumer remaining sluggish.

    We continue with the same guidance for 2026, which is a low to mid-single-digit decline in Mexico simply because we had to transfer the impacts of the IEPS excise tax, and that was a large price increase that we had to transfer through for the IEPS tax.

    asked by Ben Theurer · answered by Ian M. Craig García

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Mexico Market Dynamics & Strategic Response

    Mexico experienced sequential volume improvements throughout 2025, culminating in a near-flat Q4 performance with a 0.9% contraction, and December marking the strongest month on record. Despite a soft consumer environment and the impact of a temporary unfavorable brand sentiment early in the year, the company implemented decisive measures including adjustments to price-pack architecture and revamped affordability initiatives, particularly in multi-serve refillable packs. Coke Zero maintained solid growth at 14% volume, and the stills portfolio grew 7.4%, driven by Monster (+41%), FUZE Tea (+33%), and Santa Clara (+28%). The Mexico team's swift reaction to challenges, including cost control and productivity measures, helped recover competitive position and profitability. For 2026, the company is prepared to navigate the excise tax increase and continued soft economic growth by bolstering its portfolio with affordability initiatives and increasing returnable pack offerings to defend household penetration.

    02

    Brazil's Record Performance & Digital Leadership

    Brazil delivered a strong performance in Q4 FY25, with volumes increasing 2.6%, marking the highest fourth-quarter volume on record for the operation. This growth was driven by a historic December, outstanding market execution, higher average temperatures, and digital enablers. The company continued gaining share across all relevant non-alcoholic ready-to-drink categories, recovering most of the share lost due to the temporary plant closure in Rio Grande do Sul. Coca-Cola Zero grew 44% and Sprite Zero achieved accelerated growth of 93% in FY25, with Sprite Zero now representing over 20% of total Sprite volume. The Juntos+ monthly active user base expanded beyond 303,000, and Juntos+ Premier loyalty customers increased 73% year-on-year. Juntos+ Advisor improved sales force efficiency by over 9.2 percentage points to 95.6%.

    03

    South America Growth & Efficiency

    The South America division saw overall volume growth of 3% in Q4 FY25, with all territories contributing. Colombia's volumes grew 4.5% as the macroeconomic environment gradually recovered, driven by portfolio initiatives to adjust price-pack architecture and the continued growth of Coke Zero. Quatro became the #1 flavored sparkling beverage in Colombia. Argentina's volumes increased 3%, maintaining positive performance through agile responses to a volatile environment, enhancing affordability plans, and accelerating single-serve mix to 26.3%. Guatemala's volumes increased 3.5% despite a decelerating macro environment and rising insecurity, with a focus on gaining share through entry price points and developing stills categories. Cost control measures and capacity investments across the region contributed to improved efficiencies.

    04

    Digital Transformation & AI Capabilities

    Coca-Cola FEMSA is leveraging its Juntos+ AI capabilities and rolling out Juntos+ Advisor across its four largest markets. In Mexico, the rollout is complete, improving geo efficiency (visitation) by 5.5 percentage points to 96.5%, and strengthening customer relationships. In Brazil, Juntos+ Advisor increased efficiency by over 9.2 percentage points to 95.6%, supporting positive share performance. The platform's ability to capture and process market information quickly through revenue growth management initiatives is seen as a strong position to address market challenges🌐, including the excise tax in Mexico and the upcoming tax in Brazil.

    05

    Capital Allocation & Financial Flexibility

    The company successfully priced a MXN 10 billion bond issuance in the Mexican market on February 12, through a dual tranche structure (MXN 7 billion at 9.12% fixed for 10 years, MXN 3 billion at TIIE plus 38 basis points for 3 years). This issuance strengthens the financial position, extends the debt maturity profile, and provides financial flexibility, receiving the highest national credit ratings. While the company maintains a below 1x EBITDA leverage, it is taking a cautious approach to its dividend strategy for 2026, awaiting clarity on cash flow behavior due to the Mexico excise tax impact before providing further updates on shareholder remuneration.

    06

    Sustainability Achievements

    Sustainability remains a core element of the company's long-term value creation strategy. Coca-Cola FEMSA's S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment score increased by 11 points year-over-year to an all-time high of 81, leading to its inclusion in the 2026 Sustainability Yearbook as the highest-scoring company in its sector in the Americas. The company also achieved a record score of 4.1 out of 5 in the FTSE4Good assessment and improved across other key evaluations, reflecting strong performance in climate action, water stewardship, and supplier management.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.