Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Seeking clarity on Hepsiburada's expected losses for 2026, seasonality impact on marketplace take rate, and the sensitivity of NII/NIM to potential rate cuts in Kazakhstan, along with expectations for future rate development.

David Ferguson stated Hepsiburada is guided to EBITDA breakeven and free cash flow positive, with no specific net income guidance. Marketplace take rate increase is driven by value-added services, not seasonality. He advised looking at previous full-year results for NII sensitivity to rate changes, noting inflation has peaked in Kazakhstan but no rate cuts are assumed in current guidance.

“On Turkey, we guide EBITDA breakeven. We've also talked about free cash flow positive as the guardrails, we're putting around this business.”

asked by Gabor Kemeny · answered by David Ferguson

Inquiring about potential strategic synergies from Tencent's minority stake, the impact of geopolitical situations on Kazakhstan's marketplace, and reasons for maintaining full-year guidance despite Q1 EBITDA outperformance.

Mikheil Lomtadze expressed excitement about Tencent as a shareholder but declined to comment on specific synergies, emphasizing Kaspi's continuous learning and innovation. David Ferguson noted Q1 is the smallest quarter, and subsequent quarters will see more investment impact on EBITDA, hence maintaining guidance. He also stated no material disruption to Kazakhstan marketplace growth from Middle East events, suggesting the macro situation is "probably more positive than negative" for Kazakhstan.

“I mean it's exciting to have such a shareholder and the team that was working on the transaction in general, we have been quite admirers of Tencent believing that Tencent is the pioneer of the super app business model.”

asked by Unknown Analyst · answered by Mikheil Lomtadze

Asking about the progress in improving Hepsiburada's service quality, the metrics used, and future objectives, particularly regarding delivery.

Mikheil Lomtadze stated the strategy for Hepsiburada is consistent: improving consumer purchase frequency, delivery speed, and financial options, using Kaspi's playbook. Investments are focused on technology, data organization, and models for enhanced consumer/merchant experience and faster delivery. He noted improvements in metrics and growth reflect these efforts.

“So everything we do I need to make one sort of comment that it's -- where we would like that we deliver the same quality of the experience in Turkey like we do in our home market. So that's our goal.”

asked by James Friedman · answered by Mikheil Lomtadze

Inquiring about the potential long-term consumer engagement (purchase frequency) in Turkey, comparing it to other markets and Kaspi's home market.

Mikheil Lomtadze stated Kaspi's benchmark is its home market, where consumers make about 27 purchases per year. In Turkey, it's currently around 7 purchases per consumer. The goal is to increase this engagement by applying their playbook, focusing on assortment, merchant base, delivery, and payment methods. He emphasized that this year is an "investment year" to achieve sustainable growth.

“And if you think in terms of our home market, if I'm not mistaken, the numbers which we have discussed in the year-end, was it about 27 purchases for consumer and I think in our [indiscernible] in Kazakhstan, and there are about 7 purchases per consumer in Turkey.”

asked by James Friedman · answered by Mikheil Lomtadze

Asking about the duration of the marketing campaign strategy for Hepsiburada, the decline in consumer financing in Turkey, and diversification of categories after listing small-ticket items.

Mikheil Lomtadze explained that the slowdown in consumer financing in Turkey was a deliberate decision to implement Kaspi's robust risk management system before scaling origination. He noted that the focus on merchants and improving delivery for low-ticket items has led to strong growth in those categories and 3P sales. Marketing is data-driven, focused on building sustainable, profitable growth rather than short-term targets.

“So we have been really happy with the way we have rolled out the new risk management system. And as we were rolling out the risk management system, we basically slow down the origination for everybody's benefit on the call, the Hepsiburada has fully owned consumer finance subsidiary.”

asked by Unknown Analyst · answered by Mikheil Lomtadze

Inquiring about any updates on Rabobank, reasons for payment take rate decline in Kazakhstan, and whether Tencent's investment is purely passive or involves deeper operational engagement.

David Ferguson stated no update on Rabobank, with the base case to close by summer. He attributed the payment take rate decline to a mix shift towards lower-take-rate Kaspi QR and B2B payments, not the National Payment System, and expects it to stabilize as it approaches the 95 bps floor. He clarified that Tencent's investment is primarily financial.

“Payments take rate is nothing to -- I know we've spoken before about National Payment System. It's nothing to do with that. Either you look at the sort of take rate decline and you look at it over the last 3 years -- 3 to 5 years for that matter, I think you'd see that it's broadly consistent each year.”

asked by Unknown Analyst · answered by David Ferguson

Asking about factors driving flat EBITDA in payments despite take rate decline, implications of shifting to car finance/merchant loans on Fintech NIMs, and deployment of the recently raised $600 million capital.

Mikheil Lomtadze explained that payments EBITDA remains strong due to its high profitability (50%+ EBITDA margin) and scale, despite take rate compression from mix shift. David Ferguson stated that Fintech pricing has been broadly stable over the last 12 months and wouldn't expect dramatic changes. He clarified the $600 million capital is for "general corporate purposes" across both Kazakhstan and Turkey, providing flexibility for growth initiatives.

“On the last question, the official line is general corporate purposes. What does that mean? There's no one specific big bang project, but across both Kazakhstan and Tech, there's multiple initiatives, growth initiatives.”

asked by Unknown Analyst · answered by David Ferguson