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    KSPI
    Earnings call· Mar 2026(Q1 FY26)

    Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz Q1 FY26 earnings call KSPI

    May 11, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Kaspi Q1 FY26 — Strong E-commerce Growth and Stable Profitability

    Kaspi delivered strong Q1 FY26 results, driven by robust e-commerce growth and increasing consumer engagement, particularly in Turkey. The company continues to prioritize investments in value-added services and risk management, aiming for sustainable, profitable growth while navigating higher funding costs and a shift in loan portfolio mix. Management reiterated full-year guidance, signaling continued strategic investments.

    Highlights

    5

    • E-commerce GMV grew 41% YoY on a constant currency and pro forma basis.

    • Quarterly purchase frequency reached 15%, up 44% YoY.

    • Value-added services revenue grew 73% YoY, outpacing e-commerce revenue growth of 58% YoY.

    • Average net loan portfolio grew 23% YoY, driving 25% revenue growth in Fintech.

    • First and second payment default rates remain low at 0.9% and 0.4% respectively, and broadly stable since early 2023.

    Concerns

    4

    • Total Finance Volume (TFE) declined 2% YoY, below the 5% guidance.

    • Payments take rate compressed YoY due to product mix shift towards lower-take-rate Kaspi QR and B2B payments.

    • Net income was flat, down 1% YoY, primarily due to higher interest expense and COGS from Hepsiburada inclusion.

    • Fintech EBITDA growth of 12% YoY was impacted by higher funding costs, up 220 bps YoY in Kazakhstan.

    Guidance & targets

    7
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Dividend per share
    850
    medium materiality
    High
    Marketplace GMV growth
    around 20%
    high materiality
    High
    TPV growth
    15%
    medium materiality
    High
    TFV growth
    around 5%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    EBITDA growth
    around 5%
    high materiality
    High
    Hepsiburada EBITDA
    around EBITDA breakeven
    medium materiality
    High
    Hepsiburada Free Cash Flow
    positive
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    4
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Marketplace
    Slower EBITDA growth reflects Hepsiburada inclusion for 3 months in Q1 FY26 versus 2 months in Q1 FY25, with Hepsiburada operating near breakeven. E-commerce constitutes approximately 60% of marketplace GMV.
    GMV growth (constant currency pro forma): 19%
    		up 49%up 19%—EBITDA up 12%
    E-commerce (within Marketplace)
    Driven by increased consumer engagement and monetization from advertising and delivery services. Approximately half of the GMV originates from Kazakhstan and Turkey.
    GMV growth (constant currency pro forma): 41%Purchases growth YoY: 43%Purchases per consumer: 15 (up from 10.4 last year)Take rate: 15.8% (up 90 bps YoY)Value-added services revenue growth: 73%
    		up 58%up 41%——
    Payments
    Take rate compression is due to a product mix shift towards lower-take-rate Kaspi QR and B2B payments. The segment remains highly profitable and cash generative, strategically driving engagement across other businesses in Kazakhstan. EBITDA excludes interest revenue, which is about 1/4 of payments revenue and grew 26% YoY.
    TPV growth: 14%
    		up year-on-year (slower rate)up 14%—flat EBITDA growth
    Fintech
    The company is prioritizing longer-duration loans (merchant financing, general purpose loans) over BNPL, leading to a divergence between loan portfolio growth and TFE. Adjusted EBITDA growth was impacted by a 220 bps increase in funding costs YoY in Kazakhstan.
    Average net loan portfolio growth: 23%Total Finance Volume (TFE) decline: 2%Portfolio duration increase: from 7 months to 9.3 monthsFintech yield: 6% YoY
    		25% revenue growth23% (average net loan portfolio)—12% adjusted EBITDA growth year-on-year

    Operational metrics

    17
    Consolidated Revenue
    31%YoY growth
    Q1 FY26
    Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA
    9%YoY growth
    Q1 FY26
    Consolidated Net Income
    down 1%YoY
    Q1 FY26

    Net income was flat, down 1% YoY, primarily due to higher interest expense and COGS from Hepsiburada inclusion.

    Dividend per share
    850same as Q4 FY25
    Q1 FY26

    Board recommended dividend of 850 KZT per share.

    Payout ratio
    64%
    Q1 FY26

    Represents the payout ratio for the Q1 FY26 dividend.

    E-commerce share of Marketplace GMV
    60%
    Q1 FY26

    E-commerce is around 60% of total marketplace GMV.

    m-Commerce share of Marketplace GMV
    40%
    Q1 FY26

    m-Commerce primarily makes up the other 40% of marketplace GMV.

    Fintech funding costs increase
    220YoY
    Q1 FY26

    Higher funding costs in Kazakhstan impacted Fintech EBITDA growth.

    First payment default rate
    0.9%broadly stable since early 2023
    Q1 FY26

    Level of default for people who have taken a loan and immediately missed a payment.

    Second payment default rate
    0.4%broadly stable since early 2023
    Q1 FY26

    Level of default for people who have taken a loan and immediately missed a payment.

    Delinquency rate
    2.2%broadly stable over last couple of years
    Q1 FY26

    Across the portfolio, for people who have just missed a payment, indicating credit quality.

    Capital raised
    $600 million
    Q1 FY26

    Capital raised at a 5.9% rate for general corporate purposes across Kazakhstan and Turkey.

    Acquiring fee on QR codes
    0.95%
    Q1 FY26

    The acquiring fee on Kaspi QR codes, which is considered a floor for payment take rates.

    B2B payments take rate
    about point file roughly
    Q1 FY26

    Take rate for B2B payments, which is lower than other payment products and growing faster.

    Payments EBITDA margin
    50-plus percent
    Q1 FY26

    Indicates the high profitability of the Payments business.

    Pay by [indiscernible] registered users
    1 million
    Q1 FY26

    New innovation in the payments field, growing nicely.

    Portfolio duration
    9.3 monthsincreased from 7 months
    Q1 FY26

    Increase in portfolio duration due to shift towards longer-duration loans.

    Industry KPIs

    8
    MetricValueDetails
    Funding mix220bps
    Delinquencies2.2%%
    Capital returns850KZT/share
    Credit quality mixmoving up
    Loans card receivables23%%
    Provision reserve rate0.7%%
    Billed business purchase volume41%%
    Net interest margin yield on receivables6%%

    Product announcements

    1
    ProductTypeDetails
    Pay by [indiscernible]update

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    HepsiburadaAcquisition of Turkish e-commerce platform.

    Acquired at the end of January of the prior year. Integration efforts focused on improving service quality, delivery speed, and financial options.

    TencentTencent acquired a minority stake in Kaspi.

    Tencent is admired as a pioneer of the super app business model. Management expressed excitement about the relationship and potential for knowledge sharing.

    Risks & headwinds

    3
    Higher interest expense and COGSQ1 FY26

    Net income flat, down 1% YoY. Funding costs in Kazakhstan up 220 bps YoY. COGS from Hepsiburada inclusion for 3 months vs 2 months prior.

    Mitigation: Management hopes rates have peaked, which would be helpful for profitability growth next year.

    Payment take rate compressionQ1 FY26

    Take rate compressed YoY.

    Mitigation: Driven by mix shift to lower-take-rate products (Kaspi QR, B2B payments); expected to stabilize as it approaches a floor (0.95% for Kaspi QR).

    Divergence between loan portfolio growth and TFEQ1 FY26

    Average net loan portfolio growth of 23% vs TFE decline of 2%.

    Mitigation: Deliberate strategy to prioritize longer-duration, higher-revenue loans (merchant financing, general purpose loans) over short-duration BNPL.

    What to watch in Q2 FY26

    5

    Hepsiburada EBITDA and Free Cash Flow

    Next quarter (and full year)
    CurrentEBITDA breakeven, FCF positive (guided for full year)
    TargetMaintain EBITDA breakeven and FCF positive

    Why it matters

    Indicates successful integration and operational efficiency of the key Turkish acquisition, crucial for overall growth.

    On Turkey, we guide EBITDA breakeven. We've also talked about free cash flow positive as the guardrails, we're putting around this business.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    Seeking clarity on Hepsiburada's expected losses for 2026, seasonality impact on marketplace take rate, and the sensitivity of NII/NIM to potential rate cuts in Kazakhstan, along with expectations for future rate development.

    David Ferguson stated Hepsiburada is guided to EBITDA breakeven and free cash flow positive, with no specific net income guidance. Marketplace take rate increase is driven by value-added services, not seasonality. He advised looking at previous full-year results for NII sensitivity to rate changes, noting inflation has peaked in Kazakhstan but no rate cuts are assumed in current guidance.

    “On Turkey, we guide EBITDA breakeven. We've also talked about free cash flow positive as the guardrails, we're putting around this business.”

    asked by Gabor Kemeny · answered by David Ferguson

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strategic Shift in Earnings Calls

    Kaspi is adopting a new call format, with Q1 and Q3 calls focusing on financial updates and guidance, while full-year and interim results calls will cover strategy, products, and initiatives in more detail. This aims for efficiency and more focused discussions, acknowledging that many investors follow multiple companies reporting simultaneously.

    02

    E-commerce as a Growth Driver

    E-commerce is highlighted as a key growth driver, focusing on the "front end of the consumer and merchant relationship" where purchase decisions occur. The company emphasizes value-added services like advertising and delivery, which are growing faster than GMV, indicating successful monetization strategies within the e-commerce segment. Mikheil Lomtadze expressed optimism about future innovations and product launches.

    03

    Hepsiburada Integration and Strategy

    The acquisition of Hepsiburada is central to the company's growth strategy in Turkey. Investments are focused on improving service quality, delivery speed, and financial options to drive consumer engagement and purchase frequency, aiming to replicate Kaspi's success in Kazakhstan. The goal is to increase consumer engagement from approximately 7 purchases per consumer in Turkey towards the 27 purchases per consumer seen in Kazakhstan.

    04

    Fintech Portfolio Evolution

    Kaspi is deliberately shifting its loan portfolio towards longer-duration, higher-revenue-generating loans such as merchant financing and general purpose loans, and away from short-duration Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) products. This strategic change is causing a divergence between loan portfolio growth and Total Finance Volume (TFE) origination, with portfolio duration increasing from 7 months to 9.3 months.

    05

    Risk Management and Credit Quality

    The company maintains a strong focus on risk management, evidenced by stable first and second payment default rates (0.9% and 0.4% respectively) and low delinquency rates (2.2%). The increase in the NPL ratio is attributed to a mix shift towards lower-risk products with higher collection probability, rather than a deterioration in underlying credit quality, allowing the company to keep more NPLs on the balance sheet.

    06

    Tencent Investment and Capital Deployment

    Tencent's recent minority stake acquisition is acknowledged as a primarily financial investment, with management expressing excitement about the relationship and potential for knowledge sharing, given Tencent's pioneering role in the super app business model. Additionally, Kaspi successfully raised $600 million at a 5.9% rate, which will be used for general corporate purposes across both Kazakhstan and Turkey, providing flexibility for various growth initiatives.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.