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    KSPI
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz Q4 FY25 earnings call KSPI

    Mar 2, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Kaspi.kz Q4 FY25 — Strong Underlying Performance and Dividend Resumption

    Kaspi.kz delivered strong underlying financial results in Q4 and FY25, enabling the resumption of dividends while continuing strategic investments in long-term growth. The company is focused on enhancing consumer engagement and expanding its e-Commerce offerings, particularly in Turkey, where it aims for EBITDA breakeven and sustained growth. Management highlighted the impact of external factors on reported figures but expressed confidence in its core business model and execution.

    Highlights

    5

    • Underlying net income grew 18% for FY25 and 13% for Q4 FY25, excluding external factors.

    • Monthly transactions per active consumer reached 77, indicating world-class engagement.

    • Kaspi Alaqan (pay-by-palm) achieved unprecedented adoption with 0.5 million customers and 6,000 merchants in Almaty within 3 months.

    • Marketplace revenue grew 30% for FY25 (21% ex-smartphones) driven by e-Commerce and value-added services.

    • Hepsiburada (Turkey) showed significant momentum with 19% growth in engaged purchases in Q4 FY25.

    Concerns

    5

    • Consolidated net profit grew 10% for FY25, impacted by smartphone sales reductions, tax changes, minimum reserve capital, and high interest rates.

    • Smartphone GMV was down 24% in Q4 FY25, impacting overall Marketplace growth.

    • Fintech net income growth was 9% for FY25 (18% underlying), affected by increased interest rates, higher taxes, and national bank reserve requirements.

    • Marketplace net income was down 7% in Q4 FY25 due to smartphone issues and higher delivery costs for lower-ticket items.

    • TFV growth for Fintech is expected to slow to 5% for FY26, linked to changing GMV mix towards lower-ticket, less credit-sensitive items.

    Guidance & targets

    8
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Adjusted EBITDA
    around 5% growth
    high materiality
    High
    Marketplace GMV growth
    around 20%
    high materiality
    High
    TPV growth
    around 20%
    high materiality
    High
    TFV growth
    around 5%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Hepsiburada EBITDA
    around breakeven
    medium materiality
    High
    Dividend per ADS
    KZT 850 per ADS
    high materiality
    High
    Dividend sustainability
    sustainable
    high materiality
    High
    NPL ratio
    around 6% level
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    7
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Payments (Kazakhstan)
    TPV growth was in line with guidance, driven by solid transaction volumes. Revenue growth was slightly lower due to take rate attrition from the growing share of lower take rate products like Kaspi Pay and Kaspi B2B. Q4 net income growth was impacted by costs related to the launch and scaling of Kaspi Alaqan.
    TPV growth (Q4 FY25): 14%TPV growth (FY25): 19%Transaction volumes growth (Q4 FY25): 12%Transaction volumes growth (FY25): 14%Net income growth (FY25): 13%
    		7% growth7% (Q4 FY25)—4% growth (Q4 FY25)
    Marketplace (Kazakhstan)
    Underlying GMV growth was strong, but overall growth was impacted by a 24% decline in smartphone GMV in Q4 FY25. Purchases remained strong, indicating robust demand. Take rates reached all-time highs, driven by advertising and delivery services. Net income declined in Q4 due to smartphone issues and higher delivery costs for lower-ticket items, which will be addressed by price increases in 2026.
    GMV growth (Q4 FY25): 12% (underlying)GMV growth (FY25): 19% (underlying)GMV growth (Q4 FY25 ex-smartphones): 11%GMV growth (FY25 ex-smartphones): 12-14% (guidance was 12-14%)Purchases growth (Q4 FY25): 34%Purchases growth (FY25): 35%Take rate (Q4 FY25): 13.1%Take rate (FY25): 12.7%Net income growth (FY25): 6%
    		21% growth (Q4 FY25 ex-smartphones)21% (Q4 FY25 ex-smartphones)—-7% growth (Q4 FY25)
    e-Commerce (Kazakhstan)
    E-Commerce is the fastest-growing part of Marketplace, heavily impacted by smartphone issues. Excluding smartphones, GMV growth was 27% for FY25. Purchases showed very strong growth. Take rates hit all-time highs, driven by advertising and delivery. e-Grocery continues to scale rapidly.
    GMV growth (Q4 FY25): 9%GMV growth (FY25): 16%GMV growth (FY25 ex-smartphones): 27%Purchases growth (Q4 FY25): 70%Purchases growth (FY25): 83%Take rate (Q4 FY25): 13.1%Take rate (FY25): 12.7%Advertising growth (Q4 FY25): 45%Advertising growth (FY25): 64%e-Grocery GMV growth (FY25): 53%e-Grocery consumers: 1.4 million
    		————
    m-Commerce (Kazakhstan)
    M-Commerce is seeing migration of merchants and consumers to e-Commerce. While GMV growth is lower, it provides a competitive advantage by leveraging existing relationships with offline merchants. Take rates remained strong and consistent.
    GMV growth (FY25 ex-smartphones): 11%GMV growth (FY25 including smartphones): 7%GMV growth (Q4 FY25 including smartphones): -4%GMV growth (Q4 FY25 ex-smartphones): 3%Take rate (Q4 FY25): 9.4%Take rate (FY25): 9.2%
    		————
    Kaspi Travel (Kazakhstan)
    Kaspi Travel is a relatively more mature business within Marketplace, showing decent GMV growth and some take rate expansion.
    GMV growth (Q4 FY25): 6%GMV growth (FY25): 14%
    		————
    Fintech (Kazakhstan)
    TFV growth was driven by merchant and micro business financing. Fintech was impacted by higher interest rates, taxes, and reserve requirements. Underlying net income growth was strong at 18% for the full year. The NPL ratio increased due to more efficient collections, and lower coverage reflects the growing share of collateralized and lower-risk products.
    TFV growth (Q4 FY25): 4%TFV growth (FY25): 13%Loan portfolio growth (Q4 FY25): 27%Loan portfolio growth (FY25): 31%Savings/deposits growth (Q4 FY25): 16%Savings/deposits growth (FY25): 18%Pricing yield (FY25): 24% (flat)Cost of risk (FY25): 2.2% (unchanged)NPL ratio (FY25): ~6%Net income growth (FY25): 9%Underlying net income growth (Q4 FY25): 18%Underlying net income growth (FY25): 18%
    		19% growth (Q4 FY25)19% (Q4 FY25)—4% growth (Q4 FY25)
    Hepsiburada (Turkey)
    Hepsiburada showed dramatically improved purchase momentum and revenue growth in Q4 FY25. The strategy focuses on driving order frequency and engagement, which can lead to slightly lower GMV growth due to lower ticket sizes. Investments are being made to improve products and services, with the aim of achieving EBITDA breakeven in 2026.
    Purchases growth (Q4 FY25): 19%GMV growth (Q4 FY25 real terms): 13%GMV growth (FY25 real terms): 7%GMV growth (Q4 FY25 nominal): 49%GMV growth (FY25 nominal): 45%Monthly active consumers growth (Q4 FY25): 15%Engaged consumers growth (Q4 FY25): 29%Next-day shipping coverage: 63% (up from 47%)
    		18% growth (Q4 FY25 real terms)18% (Q4 FY25 real terms)——

    Operational metrics

    32
    Net income growth (consolidated)
    10%YoY
    FY25

    Consolidated net profit growth including the impact of external factors.

    Underlying net income growth (consolidated)
    18%YoY
    FY25

    Underlying net income growth for FY25, excluding the impact of smartphone sales reductions, tax changes, minimum reserve capital, and high interest rates.

    Underlying net income growth (consolidated)
    13%YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Underlying net income growth for Q4 FY25, excluding external factors.

    Monthly transactions per active consumer
    77
    Q4 FY25

    Key indicator of consumer engagement.

    Mobile application installed base
    almost half6x more than nearest brand
    FY25

    Reflects strong brand presence in Kazakhstan.

    Kaspi Alaqan customers
    0.5 millionalmost 1/3 of Almaty population
    within 3 months of launch

    Rapid adoption of pay-by-palm service in Almaty.

    Kaspi Alaqan merchants
    almost 6,000
    within 3 months of launch

    Number of merchants accepting pay-by-palm in Almaty.

    Kaspi Alaqan transaction penetration
    almost 10%
    within 3 months of launch

    Penetration of pay-by-palm transactions in stores where it is available.

    E-Commerce penetration (consumers)
    half
    current

    Only half of consumers are currently using e-Commerce, indicating growth potential.

    Hepsiburada engaged purchases growth
    19%YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Growth in purchases by engaged consumers on Hepsiburada.

    Hepsiburada monthly active consumers growth
    15%YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Growth in monthly active consumers for Hepsiburada.

    Hepsiburada engaged consumers growth
    29%YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Growth in engaged consumers for Hepsiburada, who repeatedly buy.

    Hepsiburada next-day shipping coverage
    63%up from 47%
    Q4 FY25

    Improvement in delivery speed and coverage for Hepsiburada.

    Kaspi active consumers
    7.4 million
    Q4 FY25

    Number of active consumers for Kaspi in Kazakhstan.

    Hepsiburada active consumers
    11.8 million1.6x more than Kaspi
    Q4 FY25

    Number of active consumers for Hepsiburada in Turkey.

    GMV per consumer (Hepsiburada vs Kaspi)
    1.6x less
    Q4 FY25

    Hepsiburada's GMV per consumer is 1.6x less than Kaspi's.

    Frequency of purchases per consumer per year (Kaspi)
    24.8
    FY25

    High frequency of purchases by Kaspi consumers.

    Frequency of purchases per consumer per year (Hepsiburada)
    6.7almost 4x less than Kaspi
    FY25

    Lower frequency of purchases by Hepsiburada consumers compared to Kaspi.

    Engaged consumers growth (Kaspi)
    66%
    Q4 FY25

    Continued strong growth in engaged consumers for Kaspi despite its scale.

    Engaged consumers growth (Hepsiburada)
    29%2.3x less than Kaspi
    Q4 FY25

    Growth in engaged consumers for Hepsiburada, with opportunity for further improvement.

    Smartphone GMV decline
    24%YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Significant decline in smartphone GMV, impacting overall Marketplace growth.

    Smartphone GMV return to growth
    returned to growth
    January 2026

    Smartphones category returned to growth in January 2026 after declines in 2025.

    e-Commerce GMV growth (shoes and clothing)
    103%YoY
    FY25

    Strong growth in e-Commerce GMV for the shoes and clothing category, offsetting m-Commerce decline.

    m-Commerce GMV decline (shoes and clothing)
    5%YoY
    FY25

    Decline in m-Commerce GMV for the shoes and clothing category.

    e-Commerce GMV growth (health and beauty)
    62%YoY
    FY25

    Strong growth in e-Commerce GMV for the health and beauty category.

    m-Commerce GMV growth (health and beauty)
    1%YoY
    FY25

    Modest growth in m-Commerce GMV for the health and beauty category.

    Marketplace revenue growth (ex-smartphones)
    23%YoY
    FY25

    Materially faster revenue growth when excluding the impact of smartphones.

    Marketplace revenue growth (ex-smartphones)
    21%YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Materially faster revenue growth when excluding the impact of smartphones.

    Bank tax rate increase
    200 bps
    FY26

    Increase in the bank tax rate effective January 1, 2026.

    Historical net income
    -$60 million
    historical

    Historical net income for Kaspi at an earlier stage of its development, compared to current $2 billion net income.

    Marketplace GMV contribution (e-Commerce & e-Grocery)
    54%
    FY25

    Contribution of e-Commerce and e-Grocery to total Marketplace GMV in FY25.

    Marketplace GMV contribution (e-Commerce & e-Grocery)
    around 60%
    FY26

    Expected contribution of e-Commerce and e-Grocery to total Marketplace GMV in FY26.

    Industry KPIs

    9
    MetricValueDetails
    Fee revenue12% growth%
    Funding mix18% growth%
    Delinquenciesincrease
    Capital returnsKZT 850KZT per ADS
    Credit quality mixaround 6%%
    Net charge off rate2.2%%
    Loans card receivables31% growth%
    Billed business purchase volume19% growth%
    Net interest margin yield on receivables24%%

    Product announcements

    2
    ProductTypeDetails
    Kaspi Alaqan (Pay-by-Palm)launch
    Weekend deliverieslaunch

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    RabobankAcquisition of Rabobank's Turkish subsidiary to obtain a banking license and launch Fintech products.$300 million

    The acquisition of Rabobank's Turkish subsidiary is underway, pending regulatory approval. This will provide a full banking license, allowing Hepsiburada to offer a broader range of financial products, including savings and lending, to consumers and merchants. The $300 million investment is part of the capital for this initiative.

    Risks & headwinds

    7
    External factors impacting net incomeFY25

    Consolidated net profit grew 10% for FY25, compared to 18% underlying growth.

    Mitigation: Focus on underlying performance and long-term growth; dividend resumption indicates confidence in cash generation despite these factors.

    Smartphone sales reductionFY25, improving in 2026

    GMV from smartphones was down 24% in Q4 FY25.

    Mitigation: Smartphone category returned to growth in January 2026; favorable year-over-year comparison from March 2026. Focus on other e-Commerce categories.

    Higher interest ratesFY25, potentially improving H2 FY26

    Impacted Fintech net income growth, which was 9% (reported) vs 18% (underlying) for FY25.

    Mitigation: Guidance does not assume reduction in rates for FY26, but potential rate cuts in H2 FY26 could be a benefit. Focus on underlying business strength.

    Higher taxes in KazakhstanFY26

    Bank tax increased, adding around 200 bps to the tax rate in FY26.

    Mitigation: Factored into FY26 outlook; management expects these factors to be in the base by year-end 2026.

    Higher National Bank reserve requirementsFY25, continuing into FY26

    Impacted Fintech bottom line.

    Mitigation: Factored into FY26 outlook; management expects these factors to be in the base by year-end 2026.

    Lower growth in m-CommerceOngoing

    M-Commerce GMV down 5% for shoes and clothing, 1% for health and beauty (FY25).

    Mitigation: Migration of merchants and consumers to e-Commerce, which is a higher growth and higher take rate segment. M-Commerce still provides competitive advantage through offline merchant relationships.

    Profitability dilution from e-Commerce delivery costsQ4 FY25, addressed in 2026

    Growth in purchases of lower ticket size items increases delivery costs as a higher part of GMV, decreasing immediate e-Commerce profitability.

    Mitigation: Price of delivery raised from January 1, 2026, to offset this dilution.

    What to watch in Q1 FY26

    5

    Smartphone GMV growth

    Q1 FY26
    Currentdown 24% in Q4 FY25
    Targetpositive growth

    Why it matters

    Recovery in smartphone sales is crucial for overall Marketplace GMV growth and profitability, as it was a significant headwind in FY25.

    Although what I would say more encouragingly, having been down materially throughout or since March of 2025, smartphone category did return to growth in January of this year. And from March, we just have a favorable year-over-year comp. So we do expect that sort of growth in marketplace to normalize over the first half of this year and that smartphone issue to be a 2025 issue rather than a 2026 issue.

    Q&A highlights

    8

    Will 2026 be the peak investment year for Hepsiburada, or will more investment be required? How does this impact profitability?

    Management stated they will manage the Turkey business around EBITDA breakeven in 2026, continuing targeted investments in consumer engagement, faster delivery, and technology. They clarified that investments are driven by ROI and consumer response, not a fixed peak, and aim to build a more valuable, not just bigger, business.

    “Whether investment will be in 2027, less than 2026, I'm not going to give you such a forecast or guidance. But the one thing I can tell you that what we're investing into will -- we believe, will bring the growth and the engagement of the consumers in the future.”

    asked by Luke Holbrook · answered by Mikheil Lomtadze

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strategic Focus on Long-Term Growth and Shareholder Returns

    Kaspi.kz emphasized its commitment to long-term growth and value creation, alongside resuming dividends. The company proposed a dividend of KZT 850 per ADS for Q4 FY25, signaling confidence in its strong cash generation. Management highlighted that underlying net income grew 18% for the full year 2025, despite external headwinds🌐 such as smartphone sales reductions, tax changes, and a high interest rate environment.

    02

    Consumer Engagement and Brand Strength

    A key metric for Kaspi.kz is consumer engagement, with monthly transactions per active consumer reaching 77, which the company considers a world-class indicator. The Kaspi brand holds a dominant position in Kazakhstan across various categories, with its mobile application installed on almost half of surveyed smartphones, 6x more than its nearest competitor. This strong brand loyalty and engagement are seen as crucial for future value creation.

    03

    Innovation in Payments: Kaspi Alaqan

    The company successfully launched Kaspi Alaqan, a pay-by-palm service, achieving rapid adoption. Within three months, almost 0.5 million customers in Almaty registered, and nearly 6,000 merchants accepted payments via Alaqan. This represents almost 10% of transactions in connected stores and covers approximately one-third of Almaty's population, demonstrating a significant shift in consumer payment behavior from cash to mobile to QR code and now to biometric payments.

    04

    E-Commerce as a Growth Driver

    E-Commerce is identified as a primary growth driver, creating significant value for both merchants and consumers. The company focuses on expanding its e-Commerce offerings, including delivery and advertising services, which have contributed to increased take rates. E-Grocery, in particular, is highlighted as the fastest-growing e-Commerce business, scaling across the country with over 1.4 million consumers.

    05

    Hepsiburada (Turkey) Turnaround Strategy

    In Turkey, Kaspi.kz is focused on growing consumer engagement and the number of orders for Hepsiburada. The strategy involves targeted investments in technology, personalization, and delivery speed, aiming to build a loyal and engaged customer base. Engaged purchases grew 19% in Q4 FY25, and next-day shipping coverage improved from 47% to 63%. The company plans to manage the Turkey business around EBITDA breakeven in 2026 while continuing these investments.

    06

    Impact of External Factors on Fintech Performance

    Fintech performance in FY25 was significantly impacted by external factors, including material increases in interest rates, higher taxes, and increased national bank reserve requirements. While reported net income growth was 9% for the full year, the underlying growth, excluding these factors, was 18%. The NPL ratio is expected to remain around 6% for FY26, influenced by more efficient collections and the growing share of collateralized and lower-risk products like car loans and merchant financing.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.