Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Q4 FY25 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Will 2026 be the peak investment year for Hepsiburada, or will more investment be required? How does this impact profitability?

Management stated they will manage the Turkey business around EBITDA breakeven in 2026, continuing targeted investments in consumer engagement, faster delivery, and technology. They clarified that investments are driven by ROI and consumer response, not a fixed peak, and aim to build a more valuable, not just bigger, business.

“Whether investment will be in 2027, less than 2026, I'm not going to give you such a forecast or guidance. But the one thing I can tell you that what we're investing into will -- we believe, will bring the growth and the engagement of the consumers in the future.”

asked by Luke Holbrook · answered by Mikheil Lomtadze

Can you provide more clarity on the $300 million Rabobank investment, the types of products expected, and timing if the acquisition completes?

The company already has microfinance capabilities in Turkey and plans to launch some Fintech products without a full banking license. The banking license would enable a wider range of financial products for consumers and merchants. The $300 million investment is already factored into dividend resumption plans. Specific product launches will be updated in due course.

“And when we talk about the banking license, that just gives us an opportunity to launch the wider range of the financial products, especially around the consumers and the merchants, both on the savings side and the lending side. $300 million, it's an investment which comes together with the capital.”

asked by Luke Holbrook · answered by Mikheil Lomtadze

What is the company's stance on e-Grocery in Turkey, especially given increased activity from competitors like Uber, Getir, and Trendyol Go?

Kaspi.kz is not currently in the quick commerce business, focusing instead on e-Grocery for household fridge stocking, similar to its Kazakhstan model. They will continue to develop services based on consumer demand and are not planning to move into quick commerce in Turkey at this stage.

“We're not in the quick commerce business. So we're not -- that's not the business which we have in Kazakhstan either, at least at this stage. We're focused on the e-Grocery business, which is not about small ticket fast commerce items, but it's about stuffing your fridge with your -- of your household.”

asked by Luke Holbrook · answered by Mikheil Lomtadze

Can you comment on the competitive environment in Turkey, particularly regarding the behavior of large competitors as Hepsiburada accelerates volumes?

Management stated their priority is to focus on the high quality of products and services for consumers and merchants, rather than directly focusing on competition. They believe this approach, which worked in Kazakhstan, will drive engaged customers and order frequency in Turkey.

“But at the same time, again, our priority is really just to focus on the very high quality of the products and services, which is the final product the company needs to produce for consumers to come back and for the merchants to do business with you.”

asked by Gabor Kemeny · answered by Mikheil Lomtadze

Given the EBITDA guide, how will the bottom line develop with regulatory changes, taxation, and reserves? What is the sustainable dividend payout going forward?

The company declared KZT 850 per share for Q4 FY25, which they believe is sustainable for FY26. They noted that higher taxes in Kazakhstan (200 bps increase to tax rate) and higher National Bank reserve requirements will weigh on the bottom line in FY26, with potential upside from interest rate reductions in H2 FY26, though not assumed in current guidance.

“So we've declared KZT 850 per share for the final quarter of last year. And we've said that we believe that, that is sustainable for the remainder of this year.”

asked by Gabor Kemeny · answered by David Ferguson

Can you elaborate on the focus on frequency of use (RPAC) over total number of users as you migrate to Turkey with Hepsiburada?

The focus is on engaged consumers who repeatedly interact and buy, leading to lower marketing and operating costs and favorable economics. This playbook worked in Kazakhstan and is being applied to Turkey. The company also aims to build different services around consumer needs, going beyond e-Commerce to include Fintech, leveraging network effects and synergies.

“Our focus is engaged consumers because those are the ones which make business work, and those are the ones which repeatedly come back and interact with you and buy from you. So the things which you are right in the sense that those are the consumers which are basically buying with you.”

asked by James Friedman · answered by Mikheil Lomtadze

Why is Fintech TFV growth expected to slow to 5% when pricing (yield) is stable?

The slowdown is linked to the changing mix of GMV growth in Kazakhstan, which is increasingly coming from lower-ticket items (e.g., grocery) that are less credit-sensitive. While consumers still use credit for electronics, that category is now more mature and slower-growing within the marketplace.

“I would just say one thing to think about is TFV growth is linked to GMV growth in Kazakhstan. And if you think about where the GMV growth is coming from, it's generally coming from lower ticket items, less of the extreme example of that is grocery, which is just less credit sensitive.”

asked by Gabor Kemeny · answered by David Ferguson

How does the relative growth of e-Commerce versus m-Commerce impact the consolidated take rate?

It's take rate positive because e-Commerce has a higher take rate (12.7% for FY25) than m-Commerce (under 10%). E-Commerce benefits from value-added services like delivery and advertising, which are less relevant or developed for m-Commerce. However, e-Commerce is more operations-heavy, and while delivery increases revenue, it can decrease immediate profitability due to investment in operational costs.

“So it's take rate positive. So because if we look -- sorry, just flicking the slides, e-Commerce, well, let's do the end of the year. E-Commerce take rate finished last year at 12.7%, so just short of 13%. So e-Commerce is faster growing and it's higher take rate versus m-Commerce, which is -- well, just around sort of under 10% take rate.”

asked by James Friedman · answered by David Ferguson