Lindblad Expeditions (LIND) Q2 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

How much more run rate is there for occupancy, and what is the ultimate potential for yield growth, especially with new calendars for 2027 and 2028?

Occupancy levels around 90% are considered the norm for the business, but there is significant potential for continued healthy yield growth, driven by improved deployment, demand generation efforts, and additional revenue streams like onboard and expansion revenues.

“I do think we have a potential to grow -- continue to grow yields at a very healthy rate, which is what current booking trends are showing and that's both from our improved deployment and mix of the product or significant improved demand generation efforts and our additional revenue streams such as onboard revenue and expansion revenues.”

asked by Ian Zaffino · answered by Natalya Leahy

Can you provide more color on the fuel headwind assumptions for the future and how the company balances M&A aspirations with other uses of cash?

Fuel prices are assumed to remain elevated at around $100 a barrel for the remainder of the fiscal year, and the company expects to stay within its EBITDA guidance. Capital allocation priorities are organic growth, disciplined accretive investments (M&A), and then returning capital to shareholders through debt reduction or share repurchases.

“First, we'll continue to invest in organic growth opportunities to strengthen our business and enhance the guest experience. Second, we'll pursue disciplined accretive investments across both our Expedition cruising and land experience businesses. And finally, to the extent that we generate capital beyond those needs, we'll evaluate returning it to shareholders through our debt reduction or opportunistic share repurchases.”

asked by Ian Zaffino · answered by Rick Goldberg

What is the updated thinking on increasing ownership stakes in land experiences to 100%, and what is the timing or priority?

The company values its unique model where founders remain part of the ownership and continue to run the businesses, believing it provides a competitive advantage. While ownership stakes might change, the core ownership model is expected to continue. Agreements with all four land company founders were recently extended, with some taking cash off the table.

“We have a very unique model on land companies where our founders are part of the ownership model, and they continue to run the businesses. We believe that provides us a unique competitive advantage and brings the passion, talent and exceptional knowledge of the product into the play.”

asked by Eric Des Lauriers · answered by Natalya Leahy

Can you assess the company's progress in its data-driven evolution for cost improvement and what to expect going forward?

The company has a strong pipeline of cost innovation initiatives. Results from last year's initiatives are materializing this year, and another 30-plus initiatives are expected to deliver results later this year and over the next three years, indicating ongoing progress in becoming more data-driven.

“This year, we have another 30-plus cost innovation initiatives that will start delivering results later this year and in the next 3 years. So hopefully, it gives you a little bit of color on the pipeline.”

asked by Eric Des Lauriers · answered by Natalya Leahy

With the 2028 booking curves being discussed for the first time, what insights can be shared about the accelerating momentum compared to 2027 bookings?

The 2028 launch has been exceptional, generating double the bookings compared to the 2027 launch period. While this pace is not expected to continue indefinitely due to booking curves, it signifies a very strong start and successful demand generation efforts, enabling future price elasticity.

“We literally have seen double of bookings in '28 versus '27. Now I don't expect that it will always continue. There is a booking curve, right? And it will level office it goes on. But there is a very strong launch, and it's pulling demand forward, enabling price elasticity later on.”

asked by Michael Albanese · answered by Natalya Leahy

Can you provide context on pricing strategy and bifurcate between price and traffic contributions to yield growth for the latter half of 2027 and into 2028?

For the current year and last year, yield growth was primarily driven by occupancy. The company is still pricing up on a like-for-like basis, but faces some mix headwinds. For 2027 and beyond, the expectation is that net yield will be much more pricing-driven rather than occupancy-driven.

“So what we've always shared is that we expected this year as well as last year, to really be about driving occupancy and that being the primary lever of net yield growth. ... And then as we turn the page from 2026 to 2027, our expectation is that net yield is much more pricing driven than it is occupancy driven at that stage.”

asked by Michael Albanese · answered by Rick Goldberg

Given the raised revenue guidance but maintained EBITDA guidance, and the $67 million EBITDA in H1, how does the company expect to reach the full-year EBITDA range, especially considering fuel headwinds might be easing?

The Q1 EBITDA included a $3 million one-time benefit, and Q2 benefited from a 12% capacity increase, while H2 capacity is expected to be flat. Key headwinds for H2 include elevated fuel costs (assuming $100/barrel), the final royalty rate step-up for National Geographic, and potential geopolitical risks leading to canceled voyages. The guidance range accounts for various outcomes.

“So just as a reminder, Q1 included an approximately $3 million onetime benefit related to the timing of land experience to our insurance revenue and Q2 benefited from a 12% increase in capacity, whereas we expect capacity to be flat in the second half of the year. ... The main headwind in the second half of the year is fuel costs, which remain elevated.”

asked by Steven Wieczynski · answered by Rick Goldberg