Clarification on whether the 100 million sq ft of SmartSide to top 25 builders is FY26 actual volume or a run rate, and the increase compared to FY25.

The 100 million sq ft is the expected FY26 volume, representing an increase of over 10% from prior year volumes. These partnerships provide access to new markets, particularly in the Southeast and Southwest. “The 100 million feet that we specified is, in fact, where we think we'll land in '26. Obviously, with the wins that we've communicated in recent calls, the prior year volumes were lower. What I would say about the programs, we're not going to give specific names, but each one of these meets a material threshold for us and add several thousand homes to our portfolio.”

Current price spread, comparison to 3-6 months ago, and observed switching or interest in switching to engineered wood.

Vinyl manufacturers are increasing prices (6-12%), narrowing the spread and making SmartSide more attractive. No material impact on order files yet, but it presents an opportunity. “I mean, it's tough to really put your finger on that. I mean what we're hearing is price increases in the neighborhood of 6% to 12% depending on who it is. So I mean, the spread has narrowed by that much.”

Breakdown of the $50 million reduction in full-year Siding EBITDA guidance.

Approximately $35 million of the reduction is volume-related (from $70 million volume reduction at 50% variable margin), and $15 million is due to oil-based costs, concentrated in the second half. “So that $50 million is roughly $35 million from volume, $50 million from oil-based costs.”

LPX

Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Mar 2026 (Q1 FY26)· Materials· May 6, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation Q1 FY26 — Strong Siding Performance Offsets OSB Weakness

Louisiana-Pacific navigated a complex Q1 FY26, with strong pricing power in Siding and exceptional safety performance. Despite significant OSB price and volume headwinds, the company exceeded its EBITDA guidance. Management tempered full-year expectations due to persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly in housing, but remains confident in its SmartSide value proposition and strategic growth initiatives.

Highlights

Achieved an exceptional safety performance with a total incident rate of 0.26 across 1.5 million hours worked.
Siding EBITDA was only $5 million lower year-over-year despite 10% lower net sales, demonstrating pricing power.
ExpertFinish, a high-growth product line, accounted for 12% of siding volume and 18% of siding revenue, with volumes flat year-over-year in a slowing market.
Secured two new builder partnerships, expecting to supply 100 million square feet of SmartSide to 15 of the top 25 U.S. homebuilders in FY26.
Delivered Q1 EBITDA of $82 million, exceeding the high end of guidance despite challenging market conditions.

Concerns

Net sales were down year-over-year, primarily driven by a $66 million reduction from lower OSB prices and softer demand.
OSB segment reported a $12 million EBITDA loss in Q1 FY26, with prices below EBITDA breakeven levels.
Full-year Siding EBITDA guidance was reduced by approximately $50 million from the midpoint, reflecting $35 million from volume and $15 million from oil-based costs.
Anticipate Siding volume declines year-over-year of about 10% in Q2 FY26, with full-year ExpertFinish volume growth in the mid-single digits, a deceleration from prior year.
Cash flow from operations was an outflow of $38 million compared to an inflow of $64 million last year, reflecting lower EBITDA and a log inventory buildup.

Guidance & targets

Category	Target	Timeline	Confidence
Q2 FY26 Siding Revenue	$435 million and $445 million medium materiality	Q2 · FY26	High
Q2 FY26 Siding EBITDA	$115 million and $120 million medium materiality	Q2 · FY26	High
Full-year FY26 Siding Revenue	$1.64 billion and $1.66 billion high materiality	FY26	Medium
Full-year FY26 Siding EBITDA	$410 million and $425 million high materiality	FY26	Medium
Full-year FY26 ExpertFinish volume growth	mid-single digits range medium materiality	FY26	Medium
Q2 FY26 OSB EBITDA	loss of about $10 million high materiality	Q2 · FY26	High
Full-year FY26 OSB EBITDA	similar results as reflected in the revised full year guidance high materiality	FY26	Low
Q2 FY26 Siding volume declines YoY	about 10% medium materiality	Q2 · FY26	High
Siding volume sequential improvements	through year-end medium materiality	H2 FY26	Medium

Segment performance

Segment	Revenue	YoY	QoQ	Margin
Siding Unit volumes were down due to a slowing market and increased channel inventory from Q4 price increases. Price increases (4-5 points from list, 2.5 points from mix, 2 points from rebate refinements) partly mitigated volume decline. EBITDA margin was helped by rebate and inventory dynamics, but would be closer to 26% without these factors. Combined price and volume resulted in a $42 million revenue reduction and $8 million EBITDA hit. Unit volumes: down 18% YoYSelling prices: up 9%Prime prices: up 8%ExpertFinish prices: up 10%ExpertFinish volume: flat YoYExpertFinish as % of siding volume: 12%ExpertFinish as % of siding revenue: 18%Incremental EBITDA on volume: ~50%	—	down by 18%	—	28%
OSB Prices were the dominant factor, falling significantly from Q1 last year and remaining below EBITDA breakeven. Lower volumes for both commodity and Structural Solutions reduced sales by $30 million and EBITDA by $10 million. The segment reported a $12 million EBITDA loss, better than guidance, due to efficient operations and cost control. Prices: 28% lower YoYPrices: below EBITDA breakeven levels	—	28% lower	—	$12 million EBITDA loss

Product announcements

Product	Type	Timeline
ExpertFinish line in Green Bay, Wisconsin	expansion	now ramping up
ExpertFinish capacity at Bath, New York facility	expansion	later this year
ExpertFinish capacity in North Branch, Minnesota	expansion	over time

Deals & partnerships

National homebuilders (15 of top 25 U.S. homebuilders) Supply agreement for SmartSide

Secured two new builder partnerships, providing access to new markets, specifically in the Southeast and Southwest.

Capital programs

ExpertFinish expansion (Green Bay, Wisconsin) ramping up

Benefit:50 million square feet or 25% to annual capacity

Newest ExpertFinish line making excellent progress.

ExpertFinish capacity (Bath, New York) planned

Benefit:20 million square feet of capacity

Planned addition to support growing demand.

ExpertFinish capacity (North Branch, Minnesota) intend to build

Benefit:additional ExpertFinish capacity

Acquired land for future capacity to support growing demand.

Next major siding mill (Maniwaki) engineering work continues

Period spend: $20 million to $30 million

Benefit:largest prime siding facility

Maniwaki is an option for conversion from OSB to siding, potentially becoming the largest prime siding facility. Engineering work is ongoing, pursuing parallel paths.

Total Siding Capacity Expansion underway $130 million

Benefit:ExpertFinish and other siding capacity

Total amount earmarked for siding capacity expansion, including ExpertFinish and the next major siding mill.

Risks & headwinds

Volatile macro backdrop and geopolitical events Q1 FY26

significant impact from winter storms and the conflict in Iran

Mitigation:Near-term agility of supply chain and operations teams; longer-term algorithmic structure of strategic supply contracts.

Softer OSB demand and lower commodity prices Q1 FY26

$66 million reduction in net sales and EBITDA

Mitigation:Operating efficiently, minimizing costs, prioritizing safety; not planning to operate in an oversupplied market if prices persist.

Crude oil price volatility and inflationary impacts Q2 FY26 and beyond

modest increases in freight rates; potential $6 million to $8 million annual impact on raw material costs for every $10/barrel increase

Mitigation:Supply chain agility; algorithmic supply contracts; Siding's lighter and more durable product allows for rail transport and more volume per truck.

Elevated channel inventories (sheds) Q1 FY26, normalizing in Q2 FY26

disproportionately felt in this segment; 85% of excess inventory depleted

Mitigation:Monitoring sell-through rates; expecting normalization in Q2.

Weakening housing market and consumer confidence H2 FY26

housing market weakened over the course of 2025; high input costs, falling consumer confidence, increasing interest rates magnifying uncertainty

Mitigation:Tempering expectations for the second half; confidence in SmartSide value proposition and long-term share gains.

Oversupplied OSB market Q2 FY26 and beyond

prices remain flat for last Friday's printed level, bringing OSB prices back under EBITDA breakeven levels

Mitigation:Not planning to 'plug doggedly ahead' should these prices persist; focus on cost control and efficiency.

What to watch in Q2 FY26

Siding volume decline

Q2 FY26 and through year-end

Current down by 18% year-over-year in Q1 FY26

Target about 10% decline in Q2 FY26, with sequential improvements through year-end

Why it matters

Indicates market demand recovery and effectiveness of inventory normalization for the Siding segment.

Current lower levels of market activity, we anticipate signing volume declines year-over-year in the second quarter of about 10%, with sequential improvements through year-end.

Find out whether LPX delivers this. Inve re-checks your case every morning.

Q&A highlights

Clarification on whether guidance includes oil price assumptions, the change in oil prices relative to Q4, and the split of impact between manufacturing and freight for Siding vs. OSB.

Guidance reflects current understanding of annualized impact, incorporating near-term material inputs and supply contract dynamics. Most cost impact is on raw materials (75% in Siding), with freight being a much smaller component.

“The cost of manufacturing through the raw materials is a much larger impact than freight. The full annualized impact of freight is relatively small, as Alan detailed, and we have more miles of transport for OSB just given the volume. So you can you can basically anticipate most of the costs hitting on the raw material side and in the manufacturing side. Within that, about 75% of the impact to cost of manufacturing will land in siding just because of the more raw material intensive recipes of Siding relative to OSB.”

asked by George Staphos · answered by Aaron Howald

2 min read 7 chapters

Detailed narrative

Q1 Performance Highlights

LP delivered Q1 FY26 EBITDA of $82 million, exceeding the high end of guidance, despite a challenging market. Net sales were down year-over-year, primarily due to a $66 million reduction from lower OSB prices and softer demand. Siding EBITDA was only $5 million lower despite 10% lower net sales, showcasing the pricing power of SmartSide.

Safety Performance

The company achieved a world-class total incident rate of 0.26 across over 1.5 million hours worked in North America, with the Sagola, Michigan siding mill reaching two years without a recordable injury. This highlights a strong safety culture and operational discipline, with a goal of zero injuries.

Siding Market Dynamics

The Siding business serves off-site construction, repair and remodeling, and new residential construction, each representing roughly one-third of volume. Elevated channel inventories from Q4 FY25 prebuys impacted Q1 volumes, particularly in sheds, but sell-through rates held up well, and inventories are normalizing in Q2.

ExpertFinish continues to be a strong performer, with flat volumes in a slowing market and accounting for 12% of siding volume and 18% of siding revenue.

Strategic Growth in Siding

LP is expanding ExpertFinish capacity with a new line in Green Bay, Wisconsin (adding 50 million sq ft or 25% annual capacity), another 20 million sq ft at Bath, New York later this year, and a newly acquired land in North Branch, Minnesota for future capacity.

The company is also focused on national homebuilders, securing two new partnerships and expecting to supply 100 million sq ft of SmartSide to 15 of the top 25 U.S. homebuilders in FY26, representing a high single-digit share of their total exteriors market.

Crude Oil Price Impact

LP estimates that each $10 per barrel increase in crude oil corresponds to a $1 million annual impact on freight costs and a $6 million to $8 million annual impact on raw material costs across North America, split 75-25 between Siding and OSB.

Minimal impact was seen in Q1 due to supply chain agility and algorithmic contracts, but elevated prices could trend towards these run rates over the next two quarters.

OSB Market Challenges

OSB prices were 28% lower year-over-year in Q1 FY26, resulting in a $66 million reduction in revenue and EBITDA. Lower OSB volumes further reduced sales and EBITDA by $30 million and $10 million, respectively. The segment reported a $12 million EBITDA loss, better than guidance, but prices remain below EBITDA breakeven. Management does not plan to operate in an oversupplied market if these prices persist.

Board Retirements

Dusty McCoy and Ozey Horton retired from LP's Board of Directors, with management expressing gratitude for their insights and contributions to the company's culture and strategic transformation over the last seven years.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.