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    MDU
    Earnings call· Jun 2026(Q2 FY26)

    MDU RESOURCES GROUP Q2 FY26 earnings call MDU

    Aug 6, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    MDU Resources Group Q2 FY26 — Bakken East Pipeline Advances with Signed Agreements

    MDU Resources Group reported solid Q2 FY26 earnings, driven by strong utility performance, new rates, and customer growth. A significant highlight was the advancement of the Bakken East pipeline project, securing nearly 1.2 Bcf/day in precedent agreements, with a final investment decision expected before the Q4 FY26 FERC 7(c) filing. The company also continues to capitalize on data center demand, with over 1 GW under signed agreements, while reaffirming its full-year EPS guidance and long-term growth objectives.

    Highlights

    5
    • Q2 2026 earnings increased to $0.10 per share, up from $0.07 per share in Q2 2025.

    • Bakken East pipeline project secured precedent agreements for nearly 1.2 billion cubic feet per day of transportation capacity.

    • Over 1 gigawatt of data center load is now under signed Electric Service Agreements (ESAs), with 240 megawatts currently online.

    • Electric utility earnings rose to $14.7 million in Q2 2026, compared to $10.4 million in Q2 2025.

    • Natural gas distribution segment's seasonal loss improved to $3.9 million in Q2 2026, from a $7.4 million loss in Q2 2025.

    Concerns

    3
    • Pipeline segment earnings decreased to $14.4 million in Q2 2026, down from $15.4 million in Q2 2025, due to lower other income and higher depreciation and amortization.

    • Natural gas distribution segment's improved results were partially offset by higher interest expense from increased long-term debt balances.

    • The final investment decision (FID) and FERC 7(c) filing for the Bakken East project were pushed back to Q4 2026 due to extended negotiation timing for precedent agreements.

    Guidance & targets

    5
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Adjusted EPS
    $0.93 to $1.00
    high materiality
    High
    Long-term EPS Growth Objective
    6% to 8%
    high materiality
    High
    Bakken East Pipeline FERC 7(c) Filing
    Q4 2026
    medium materiality
    High
    Bakken East Pipeline In-service Date (Phase 1)
    Late 2029
    medium materiality
    High
    Bakken East Pipeline In-service Date (Phase 2)
    Late 2030
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Electric Utility
    Results benefited from higher retail sales revenue, including recovery mechanisms associated with renewable investments such as the Badger Wind Farm. Interim rates in Montana and new rates in Wyoming, along with higher retail sales volumes across all major customer classes, also contributed to the increase.
    Earnings (Q2 FY25): $10.4 millionBadger Wind Farm earnings contribution: $3.3 million
    $14.7 million
    Natural Gas Distribution
    The improved year-over-year results were primarily driven by new rates in Idaho, Washington, Montana, and Wyoming, as well as higher retail sales volumes across all customer classes. These benefits were partially offset by higher interest expense resulting from higher long-term debt balances.
    Earnings (Q2 FY25): -$7.4 millionRetail sales volumes growth: 6.7% YoYCustomer growth: 1.6% YoY
    -$3.9 million
    Pipeline
    The decrease was driven by lower other income and higher depreciation and amortization expense from a growth project placed in service. These impacts were partially offset by continued customer demand for short-term natural gas transportation contracts and interruptible storage services, along with contributions from previously constructed growth projects, including a contracted volume increase.
    Earnings (Q2 FY25): $15.4 million
    $14.4 million

    Operational metrics

    6
    Badger Wind Farm earnings contribution
    $3.3 million
    Q2 FY26

    Contributed to electric utility earnings.

    Customer growth
    1.6%YoY
    Q2 FY26

    Contributed to improved year-over-year results for the natural gas distribution segment.

    Pipeline FERC rate case requested annual revenue increase
    $31 million
    Annual

    Filed on May 29, 2026. Rates to become effective December 1, 2026, subject to refund.

    Pipeline FERC rate case depreciation and amortization component
    30%
    Annual

    Approximately 30% of the requested $31 million revenue increase is due to proposed new depreciation and amortization rates.

    Other category net loss
    -$3.9 millionvs -$4.7 million in Q2 FY25
    Q2 FY26

    Improved year-over-year primarily due to discontinued operations and an associated tax benefit.

    Tax benefit from strategic initiative costs
    $1.5 million
    Q2 FY26

    Related to discontinued operations, contributing to the improvement in the 'other' category net loss.

    Industry KPIs

    5
    MetricValueDetails
    Retail sales growth6.7%%
    Adjusted operating EPS$0.10$/share
    Regulatory rate base growth
    Large load data center demand pipeline1 GWGW
    CAPEX multi year capital investment plan$3.1 billionUSD

    Orderbook & backlog

    2
    Data center load under signed ESAs1 GWQ2 FY26

    Total load under signed Electric Service Agreements; 240 MW currently online, additional volumes expected over the next few years.

    Applied Digital ESA (Polaris Forge 3)430 MWQ2 FY26

    Capacity at full operation for an AI factory near Center, North Dakota; pending approval by North Dakota Public Service Commission.

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Applied DigitalElectric service agreement to serve Polaris Forge 3, an AI factory.430 megawatts

    The agreement is for an AI factory near Center, North Dakota. Approval of the ESA and other regulatory filings by the North Dakota Public Service Commission is pending.

    Capital programs

    2
    Bakken East Pipeline Projectunderway$2.7 billion to $3.2 billion
    Funding: Evaluating financing, partnership and other commercial options

    Benefit: 1.4 billion cubic feet per day transportation capacity (design)

    Potential investment, incremental to current capital program. Precedent agreements signed for nearly 1.2 Bcf/day. Final investment decision expected ahead of FERC 7(c) filing in Q4 2026.

    2026-2030 Capital Programunderway$3.1 billion
    Start: FY26

    Benefit: Investments in electric, natural gas distribution, and pipeline infrastructure

    Planned investments include approximately $1.1 billion in electric, $1.4 billion in natural gas distribution, and $643 million in pipeline.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Higher interest expenseQ2 FY26

    Partially offset improved results

    Pipeline segment earnings declineQ2 FY26

    $1.0 million decrease YoY

    Mitigation: Offset by customer demand for short-term contracts and contributions from growth projects.

    Regulatory approval for Applied Digital ESA

    430 MW of load pending approval

    Regulatory outcome risk for rate casesOngoing through FY26 and beyond

    Various rate cases pending approval or settlement (ND electric $34.5M, MT electric $10.4M, WA gas $25.1M/$18.1M, OR gas $12.2M, FERC pipeline $31M)

    Mitigation: Rates subject to refund and outcome of hearing procedures if settlement not reached.

    Bakken East project financingPrior to Q4 FY26 FID

    $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion projected cost

    Mitigation: Evaluating financing, partnership, and other commercial options.

    What to watch in Q3 FY26

    5

    Bakken East Final Investment Decision (FID)

    Before Q4 FY26
    CurrentFID expected before Q4 FY26 7(c) filing
    TargetAnnouncement of FID

    Why it matters

    This is a major capital project ($2.7B-$3.2B) that will significantly impact future growth and capital allocation.

    Overall project design is being finalized based on confirmed customer volumes and delivery locations before a final investment decision is made, which is expected ahead of a FERC 7(c) filing. This application is now anticipated to be filed in the fourth quarter of 2026.

    Q&A highlights

    8

    What favorable markets or instruments are MDU seeing to efficiently finance the Bakken East project?

    Jason Vollmer stated that MDU is looking at all financing options for the Bakken East project, expressing confidence in their ability to finance it given the current market appetite for such assets.

    We feel very confident in the ability to finance a project like this and certainly some good appetite out there for these types of assets today.

    asked by Unknown Analyst · answered by Jason Vollmer

    3 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Bakken East Pipeline Project Advancement

    The company secured precedent agreements with all customers that submitted binding open season interest for the proposed Bakken East pipeline, totaling nearly 1.2 billion cubic feet per day of transportation capacity. A negotiated option is in place to potentially increase contracted volumes further. The project is still being designed for 1.4 Bcf/day, with overall design being finalized based on confirmed customer volumes. A final investment decision is expected before the FERC 7(c) application, which is now anticipated to be filed in Q4 2026. The proposed in-service dates of late 2029 for Phase 1 and late 2030 for Phase 2 remain unchanged, with the project's potential investment estimated at $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion, incremental to the current capital program.

    02

    Data Center Growth and Strategy

    MDU Resources is actively pursuing data center opportunities, with over 1 gigawatt of data center load now under signed Electric Service Agreements (ESAs), of which approximately 240 megawatts are currently online. The company recently entered into an ESA with Applied Digital to serve Polaris Forge 3, an AI factory near Center, North Dakota, which would require 430 megawatts at full capacity. This agreement is pending approval from the North Dakota Public Service Commission. MDU's approach to serving data centers is capital-light, ensuring customers pay for connection costs and that additional revenue helps reduce fixed costs for existing retail customers, creating benefits for all stakeholders.

    03

    Regulatory Rate Case Activity

    MDU is engaged in several regulatory proceedings across its utility segments. In North Dakota, a general electric rate case was filed requesting an annual revenue increase of approximately $34.5 million, with interim rates of $26.3 million requested to begin September 1, 2026. Montana interim rates of $10.4 million remain in effect, and a Wyoming general rate case settlement for $5.8 million was approved. For natural gas distribution, new rates in Idaho, Washington, Montana, and Wyoming supported improved results. New cases were filed in Washington ($25.1 million in year 1, $18.1 million in year 2) and Oregon ($12.2 million settlement pending), with a Minnesota filing anticipated later this year. The pipeline segment also filed a FERC rate case requesting a $31 million annual revenue increase, effective December 1, 2026, subject to refund.

    04

    Capital Investment Plan

    The company's capital program for 2026 through 2030 totals approximately $3.1 billion. This plan includes planned investments of approximately $1.1 billion in the electric business, $1.4 billion at the natural gas distribution business, and $643 million at the pipeline segment. This multi-year capital program is distinct from and does not include the potential Bakken East investment, which is considered incremental. MDU remains focused on disciplined execution of this plan while advancing additional infrastructure opportunities.

    05

    Pipeline Segment Strategic Initiatives

    Beyond the Bakken East project, the pipeline segment continues to advance other strategic growth initiatives. The Line Section 32 expansion project remains on schedule for a late 2028 in-service date, following its FERC Section 7(c) application filing in March 2026. Development activities for the potential mine and industrial project are also ongoing, with agreements extended through late 2026. These initiatives contribute to the segment's growth and are supported by continued customer demand for transportation and storage services.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.