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    MRNA
    Earnings call· Jun 2026(Q2 FY26)

    Moderna Q2 FY26 earnings call MRNA

    Jul 31, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Moderna Q2 FY26 — Pipeline Progress and Cost Discipline Amidst Seasonal Vaccine Lightness

    Moderna delivered Q2 FY26 results above revenue guidance, demonstrating continued financial discipline with reduced cash costs and operating expenses. The company advanced its infectious disease and oncology pipelines, securing a positive VRBPAC recommendation for its flu vaccine and presenting durable data for its individualized cancer therapy. While the norovirus vaccine trial faced a setback, Moderna remains focused on upcoming regulatory decisions and pipeline readouts, preparing for a broader portfolio and geographic expansion in the coming years.

    Highlights

    5
    • Q2 total revenue of $145 million exceeded the top of guidance range.

    • Cash costs reduced by 10% in Q2 compared to Q2 2025, reflecting continued financial discipline.

    • mRNA-1010 (seasonal flu vaccine) received a positive recommendation from the U.S. VRBPAC, moving closer to its August 5 PDUFA date.

    • Intismeran (oncology) presented a 5-year Phase II update at ASCO 2026, highlighting continued durability of clinical benefit in adjuvant melanoma.

    • Ended the quarter with a strong cash and investments balance of $6.9 billion.

    Concerns

    3
    • Net loss for the quarter was EUR 0.8 billion.

    • mRNA-1403 (norovirus vaccine) Phase III study did not meet statistical criteria for early success at interim analysis, requiring enrollment of an additional cohort.

    • Cash and investments decreased to $6.9 billion from $7.5 billion at the end of Q1, primarily due to funding operations and a $950 million litigation settlement payment in July.

    Guidance & targets

    19
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Total Revenue Growth
    up to 10%
    high materiality
    High
    Q3 Revenue as % of H2 Revenue
    approximately 55%
    low materiality
    Medium
    Full-Year Revenue Geographic Mix
    roughly 50-50 split between U.S. and international revenue
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Cost of Sales
    $1.7 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    R&D Expense
    $2.9 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    SG&A Expenses
    approximately $1 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Total GAAP Operating Expenses (excluding litigation charge)
    $4.7 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Cash Costs (excluding stock-based comp, D&A)
    $4 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Taxes
    negligible
    low materiality
    High
    Capital Expenditures
    between $0.2 billion and $0.3 billion
    low materiality
    High
    Cash and Investments Balance
    between $4.7 billion and $5.2 billion
    high materiality
    High
    mRNA-1010 (seasonal flu vaccine) PDUFA Date
    August 5
    high materiality
    High
    Intismeran (adjuvant melanoma) Phase III Interim Analysis
    2026
    high materiality
    High
    Intismeran (adjuvant renal cell carcinoma) Phase II Readout
    possible this year or next year
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Intismeran (muscle invasive bladder cancer) Phase II Readout
    more likely in 2027
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Propionic Acidemia (PA) Registrational Study Data
    in 2026
    medium materiality
    High
    Methylmalonic Acidemia (MMA) Pivotal Trial Decision
    deferred until PA readouts
    low materiality
    High
    mCombriax Approvals
    Canada and Japan
    medium materiality
    Medium
    mRNA-1010 (seasonal flu vaccine) Approvals
    Canada and Europe
    medium materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    4
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    U.S.
    Represented 60% of total revenue for Q2 FY26.
    $87M
    International
    Represented 40% of total revenue for Q2 FY26.
    $58M
    U.S. (H1 FY26)
    Represented 31% of total revenue for H1 FY26.
    $155M
    International (H1 FY26)
    Represented 69% of total revenue for H1 FY26, driven by long-term strategic partnerships.
    $345M

    Operational metrics

    18
    Total Revenue
    $145Mup 2% from prior year
    Q2 FY26

    Exceeded the top of the guidance range provided on the Q1 call.

    Total Revenue
    $0.5B
    H1 FY26

    Total revenue for the first half of the year.

    Cash Cost Reduction
    10%vs Q2 FY25
    Q2 FY26

    Reflects focus on financial discipline.

    Net Loss
    EUR 0.8Bimproved by $43M or 5% compared to last year
    Q2 FY26

    Reported net loss for the quarter. Note: Transcript states EUR, metadata states USD. Using EUR as stated in transcript for this specific figure.

    Cash and Investments Balance
    $6.9Bvs $7.5B at Q1 FY26 end
    Q2 FY26 end

    Maintained a strong balance sheet while continuing to invest in the pipeline. Decrease primarily reflected cash used to fund operations.

    Cost of Sales
    $93M22% decrease compared to prior year
    Q2 FY26

    Primarily driven by lower unutilized manufacturing capacity costs due to improved manufacturing efficiency.

    R&D Expenses
    $651M7% decrease compared to last year
    Q2 FY26

    Decline driven by lower clinical development costs following wind down of several late-stage programs.

    SG&A Expenses
    $216Mdown 6% from last year
    Q2 FY26

    Reflecting continued cost discipline across the organization.

    Loss Per Share
    $1.97vs $2.13 last year
    Q2 FY26

    Loss per share for the quarter.

    Litigation Settlement Payment
    $950M
    July 2026

    Paid in July, to be reflected in Q3 cash balance.

    Undrawn Credit Facility
    $0.9B
    Q2 FY26 end

    Remaining undrawn credit facility, not assumed in cash guidance.

    mNEXSPIKE U.S. Retail COVID Vaccine Market Share
    24%
    2025-2026 season

    Market share during its first season on the market.

    mNEXSPIKE U.S. Retail COVID Vaccine Market Share (65+ adults)
    34%
    2025-2026 season

    Uptake was particularly strong among older adults.

    mRESVIA European Commission Joint Procurement Contract
    up to 24M doses
    future

    Signed a joint procurement contract for mRESVIA.

    Immunogenic Neoantigens in Cassettes
    29%
    general

    Percentage of neoantigens that go into cassettes that are immunogenic.

    Reactive Neoantigens per Patient (INT)
    1 to 18
    per patient

    Number of neoantigens that were reactive in each patient, based on ASCO data.

    Propionic Acidemia (PA) Registrational Study Enrollment
    around 20 patients
    current

    Number of patients enrolled in the PA registrational study.

    Propionic Acidemia (PA) Prior Efficacy
    60% to 80%
    prior releases

    Efficacy shown in prior releases for PA therapy.

    Industry KPIs

    2
    MetricValueDetails
    Therapeutic drug market share24%%
    Clinical trial efficacy safety data59%%

    Product announcements

    3
    ProductTypeDetails
    mNEXSPIKEexpansion
    mRESVIAexpansion
    mCombriaxexpansion

    Deals & partnerships

    4
    CEPIExpanded partnership to explore development of an Ebola vaccine.

    Reinforces long-standing commitment to global health security and pandemic preparedness.

    Local manufacturer (Brazil)Agreement to support multiyear COVID vaccine supply agreement with the Brazilian government.

    Advanced strategic partnership in Brazil.

    MerckCollaboration on individualized cancer therapy (Intismeran).

    Intismeran is developed in partnership with Merck, advancing across a broad portfolio of studies.

    ImmaticsCollaboration on mRNA-4203 in combination with anzu-cel therapy.

    Dosing continues in the Phase I study of mRNA-4203.

    Risks & headwinds

    3
    Norovirus vaccine Phase III interim analysis did not meet statistical criteriaQ2 FY26

    Did not meet statistical criteria for early success

    Mitigation: Preparing to enroll an additional fourth cohort in the Phase III trial to accrue more cases and strengthen statistical analysis.

    Potential future declines in COVID vaccination ratesFY26

    Factored into 2026 revenue guidance

    Mitigation: Revenue guidance assumes no revenue from mFlusiva and mCombriax to account for this; strategic partnerships and mNEXSPIKE growth are expected to drive revenue.

    Cash burn from operations and litigation settlementQ2 FY26 and Q3 FY26

    Cash and investments decreased from $7.5 billion to $6.9 billion; $950 million litigation settlement paid in July

    Mitigation: Continued focus on improving operational efficiency and lowering cash cost guidance to approximately $4 billion for FY26.

    What to watch in Q3 FY26

    5

    mRNA-1010 (seasonal flu vaccine) Approval

    August 5 PDUFA date
    CurrentPositive VRBPAC recommendation
    TargetFDA approval

    Why it matters

    FDA approval of the seasonal flu vaccine is a significant commercial milestone and potential new revenue stream.

    This represents another important milestone ahead of our August 5 PDUFA date and brings us one step closer to potentially making out flu vaccine available to patients.

    Q&A highlights

    5

    How should investors interpret the Phase III Intismeran melanoma study if it passes the first interim analysis and progresses to a second/final analysis, and what is the read-through to other tumor types like lung cancer, considering tumor mutational burden and neoantigen selection?

    Management stated they have not disclosed the statistical powering or thresholds for early interim efficacy. They emphasized that the overall study was designed to evaluate the full commercial profile, and a commercially valuable product could emerge even if only in the final analysis. For read-through, they highlighted the importance of efficacy degree and validated mechanism of action (neoantigen-specific T cells). They believe it translates to tumors where checkpoints work (lung, bladder) but are conducting Phase II/I trials for tumors where checkpoints don't work (pancreatic, gastric). The ASCO data confirmed neoantigen-specific T-cell induction.

    But suffice it to say, it's an interim analysis, and there are still subsequent planned analyses. And ourselves with our partner, Merck designed the overall study to evaluate the full commercial profile of the product. And so we do think that there's a commercially valuable product that could emerge maybe only in the final analysis, but that wouldn't meet the criteria for early efficacy at the interim.

    asked by Salveen Richter · answered by Stephen Hoge

    2 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q2 Financial Performance and Outlook

    Moderna reported Q2 FY26 revenue of $145 million, exceeding its guidance range, with a geographic mix of 60% U.S. and 40% international. For the first half, total revenue was $0.5 billion, with 31% from the U.S. and 69% from international markets. The company reiterated its full-year 2026 revenue growth expectation of up to 10%, anticipating a 50-50 U.S. to international split and Q3 revenue representing approximately 55% of H2. Cost discipline continued, with Q2 cash costs reduced by 10% YoY and full-year cost of sales and R&D expense projections lowered to $1.7 billion and $2.9 billion, respectively. The company ended the quarter with $6.9 billion in cash and investments, projecting $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion by year-end 2026.

    02

    Respiratory Pipeline Progress

    The seasonal flu vaccine, mRNA-1010, received a positive recommendation from the U.S. VRBPAC ahead of its August 5 PDUFA date, with reviews also underway in the EU, Canada, and Australia. Efficacy and safety results were published in the New England Journal of Medicine. For the norovirus vaccine, mRNA-1403, the Phase III study did not meet early success criteria at its interim analysis, leading to plans for an additional fourth cohort enrollment. The company is actively discussing with the FDA the potential for late strain selection updates for flu vaccines, leveraging its rapid mRNA platform capabilities.

    03

    Oncology Pipeline Advancements

    Moderna's individualized cancer therapy, Intismeran (in partnership with Merck), continues to advance across nine Phase II and Phase III studies. A 5-year Phase II update in adjuvant melanoma highlighted durable clinical benefit, with the Phase III interim analysis expected in 2026. Phase II studies in adjuvant renal cell carcinoma and muscle invasive bladder cancer are fully enrolled, with readouts anticipated in 2026/2027. Dosing has begun in two new cancer antigen therapy programs, mRNA-4200 (solid tumors) and mRNA-4194 (Lynch syndrome), expanding the oncology portfolio beyond Intismeran.

    04

    Rare Disease and Other Pipeline Updates

    The registrational study for propionic acidemia (PA) is fully enrolled, with data expected in Q4 2026. The decision on a pivotal trial for methylmalonic acidemia (MMA) has been deferred until the PA readouts. Beyond clinical programs, Moderna expanded its partnership with CEPI for an Ebola vaccine and was recognized as the World's Most Impactful Company by Time Magazine for its mRNA science.

    05

    Commercial Strategy and Leadership

    Moderna's multiyear revenue growth strategy is anchored in geographic and portfolio expansion. mNEXSPIKE is now approved in Japan and Taiwan, and mRESVIA received approval in Mexico and a label expansion in Australia. The company signed a joint procurement contract with the European Commission for up to 24 million doses of mRESVIA. To support this growth, Moderna appointed Ester Banque as Chief Commercial Officer and Michael McDonald to its Board of Directors, strengthening leadership for upcoming product launches and market expansion.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.