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    MRP
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    Millrose Properties Q4 FY25 earnings call MRP

    Feb 26, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Millrose Properties Q4 FY25 — Strong Growth and Pipeline Validation

    Millrose Properties concluded its first public year with robust Q4 FY25 results, validating its unique land-banking model amidst a challenging homebuilding environment. The company exceeded its invested capital target and delivered strong AFFO growth, driven by contractual option payments and efficient capital recycling. While facing a valuation discount and specific market headwinds in Texas and Las Vegas, management is confident in its substantial pipeline and ability to fund future growth through debt capacity and anticipated equity re-rating.

    Highlights

    5
    • Invested capital outside the Lennar master program agreement reached approximately $2.4 billion, surpassing the $2.2 billion stretch target.

    • Normalized year-end run rate AFFO per share was $0.77, exceeding the top end of the $0.74-$0.76 guidance range.

    • Generated $3.4 billion in net homesite sale proceeds in 2025, demonstrating strong cash generation and capital recycling.

    • Delivered over 31,000 homesites to builders, with an average home selling price approximately 20% below the national average, addressing housing affordability.

    • Entered 2026 with a pipeline supporting an additional $2 billion in invested capital growth, implying 10% annual AFFO per share growth.

    Concerns

    4
    • Current AFFO multiple implies a meaningful valuation discount to competitive REITs, despite strong performance and lower leverage.

    • Texas market continues to work through elevated supply and affordability challenges, expected to normalize in 2026.

    • Las Vegas market is signaling caution due to softer sales activity and rising supply pressure.

    • The company's shares are currently trading below book value ($35.28 per share), limiting equity issuance for growth.

    Guidance & targets

    10
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Invested capital growth (outside Lennar)
    $2 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Total invested capital
    approximately $10.5 billion
    high materiality
    High
    AFFO per share growth
    10% annual
    high materiality
    High
    Funding of $2 billion growth
    approximately half of that $2 billion demand increase through existing debt capacity
    medium materiality
    High
    Invested capital deployment
    $1 billion
    high materiality
    High
    AFFO per share run rate
    $0.78 to $0.80 a share
    high materiality
    High
    Equity issuance policy
    will not issue equity below book value
    medium materiality
    High
    Leverage policy
    33% debt to cap
    high materiality
    High
    Equity raise
    raise equity above book value
    high materiality
    Medium
    AFFO per share growth (low end)
    more than 7%
    medium materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    35
    Net income
    $122.2 million
    Q4 FY25

    Driven by $179.5 million in option fees and $10 million in development loan income.

    Net income per share
    $0.74
    Q4 FY25

    Reported for the fourth quarter.

    Option fees
    $179.5 million
    Q4 FY25

    Contributed to net income in the fourth quarter.

    Development loan income
    $10 million
    Q4 FY25

    Contributed to net income in the fourth quarter.

    Net income
    $404.8 million
    FY25

    Reported for the full year, the first fiscal year as a public company.

    Net income per share
    $2.44
    FY25

    Reported for the full year.

    Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) per share
    $0.76at the high end of guidance range
    Q4 FY25

    Came in at the high end of the $0.74 to $0.76 guidance range.

    Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) per share run rate
    $0.77ahead of expectation
    Year-end run rate

    Normalized year-end run rate, reflecting invested capital growth over the quarter.

    Invested capital outside Lennar master program agreement
    $2.4 billionsurpassing $2.2 billion stretch target
    Year-end

    Reflects outperformance and builder demand.

    Net homesite sale proceeds
    $3.4 billion
    FY25

    Demonstrates the cash-generative capital recycling nature of the business model.

    Homesites delivered
    31,000
    FY25

    Delivered to builders across the country.

    Average home selling price (delivered homesites)
    20% belowvs national average
    FY25

    Average home selling price of projects delivered, compared to the national average for newly built single-family homes.

    Book value per share
    $35.28
    Year-end

    Book value per share at year-end.

    Interest expense
    $91.8 million
    FY25

    Reported for the full year.

    Income tax expense
    $20.5 million
    FY25

    Reported for the full year.

    Management fee expense
    $87.8 million
    FY25

    Calculated transparently at a fixed rate of 1.25% of gross tangible assets.

    Total assets
    $9.3 billion
    Year-end

    Total assets at year-end.

    Total debt
    $2.1 billion
    Year-end

    Total debt at year-end.

    Debt-to-capitalization ratio
    26%well inside 33% maximum
    Year-end

    Resulting in a debt-to-capitalization ratio well inside the stated maximum of 33%.

    Total liquidity
    $1.3 billion
    Year-end

    Providing ample capacity to support the investment pipeline.

    Dividend per share
    $0.75
    Q4 FY25

    Paid for the fourth quarter.

    Dividend yield
    8.4%80 bps higher than Q1
    Q4 FY25 annualized

    Roughly 80 basis points higher than the first quarter dividend, reflecting accretive capital deployment.

    Dividend payout policy
    100% of AFFO
    Ongoing

    Millrose remains committed to distributing 100% of AFFO to shareholders.

    Average yields on other agreements
    11%
    Current

    Average yields against a cost of debt of 6.3%.

    Cost of debt
    6.3%
    Current

    Cost of debt against average yields of approximately 11% on other agreements.

    Homesites managed
    142,000
    Year-end

    Total homesites managed across the portfolio.

    Communities managed
    933
    Year-end

    Total communities managed across the portfolio.

    States of operation
    30
    Year-end

    Number of states where Millrose operates.

    Counterparties served
    15
    Year-end

    Number of distinct counterparties, including top homebuilders.

    New land acquisitions and development funding deployed
    $5.5 billion
    FY25

    Amount deployed in new land acquisitions and development funding.

    Homesite closings executed
    31,000
    FY25

    Each involving title work, deed transfer, and state-specific closing requirements.

    Cross-termination pooling structures coverage
    96%
    Year-end

    Pooling structures present on 96% of the portfolio by investment balance.

    Forward flow relationships (total buying power)
    $9 billion
    Current

    Total buying power from programmatic relationships with homebuilders.

    Land portfolio cycling
    $3 billion
    Next year

    Amount of land portfolio expected to naturally cycle through and need replacement.

    Floating rate option agreement floor
    50 to 200 basis points belowbelow current rate
    Current

    Estimated floor for floating rate option agreements, relative to the current rate.

    Orderbook & backlog

    2
    Forward flow buying power (total)$9 billionQ4 FY25

    Represents total programmatic buying power across roughly 10 different counterparties.

    Forward flow buying power (example)$1 billion or $500 millionQ4 FY25

    Examples of typical buying power requests from homebuilders in programmatic relationships.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Valuation DiscountCurrent

    Current AFFO multiple implies a meaningful discount to competitive REITs

    Mitigation: Expect to resolve itself as we continue to demonstrate consistent execution; optimistic that a re-rating is coming.

    Texas Market Challenges2026 story

    Elevated supply and affordability challenges

    Mitigation: Our underwriting reflects that patience.

    Las Vegas Market CautionCurrent, ongoing monitoring

    Softer sales activity has led to rising supply pressure

    Mitigation: Monitoring it closely; underwriting discipline protects us.

    Equity Issuance ConstraintCurrent

    Shares below book value, which currently stands at $35.28 per share

    Mitigation: Optimistic that a re-rating is coming and that we will be able to raise equity above book value in 2026.

    What to watch in Q1 FY26

    5

    Invested capital deployment

    by midyear
    Currentapproximately $2.4 billion outside Lennar
    Target$1 billion additional deployed

    Why it matters

    Demonstrates execution on growth pipeline and capital recycling, contributing to AFFO growth.

    We expect to deploy that $1 billion in invested capital growth by approximately midyear, exiting Q2 2026 with a quarterly AFFO per share run rate in the range of $0.78 to $0.80 a share.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Would Millrose consider temporarily exceeding its 33% debt-to-cap target to fund growth, given confidence in future equity re-rating?

    Darren Richman stated that while the company generally adheres to the 33% target due to the volatile nature of assets and the need for cash visibility, there might be rare, strategic circumstances where they briefly push it, but the long-term goal remains 33%.

    There may be circumstances where for a brief period, we feel comfortable and we have line of sight to take it beyond 33%. But the long-term goal has really been purposefully set at 33% for the reasons I just cited.

    asked by Julien Blouin · answered by Darren Richman

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Unique Business Model Validation and Resilience

    Millrose Properties' land-banking model, which provides just-in-time homesite delivery to builders via option agreements, demonstrated significant resilience in 2025. The model generates contractual monthly option payments independent of home prices or sales pace, structurally insulating capital from cyclicality. Despite a challenging homebuilding environment marked by affordability headwinds, elevated rates, and macro uncertainty🌐, the company reported no builder terminating or threatening to terminate an option agreement, validating its design.

    02

    Strong Growth and Expanding Market Adoption

    The company's investment balance outside the foundational Lennar master program agreement finished the year at approximately $2.4 billion, surpassing the previously discussed $2.2 billion stretch target. This outperformance reflects strong market acceptance, with builders actively seeking Millrose's services, deepening existing relationships, and pioneering new use cases for land banking capital. This indicates Millrose is aggressively taking market share and expanding its platform.

    03

    Operational Scale and Technological Infrastructure

    As of year-end, Millrose manages approximately 142,000 homesites across 933 communities in 30 states, serving 15 distinct counterparties, including 9 of the top 25 homebuilders. In 2025, the company deployed $5.5 billion in new land acquisitions and development funding and executed over 31,000 homesite closings. This scale is supported by a proprietary technology platform that provides builders with real-time lot selection and automates portfolio updates, title tracking, and closing workflows, ensuring reliability and efficiency.

    04

    Strategic Capital Recycling and Contribution to Affordability

    The business model proved highly cash-generative, with $3.4 billion in net homesite sale proceeds generated in 2025. This capital recycling capability is a core strength. Furthermore, by delivering over 31,000 homesites with an average home selling price approximately 20% below the national average for newly built single-family homes, Millrose actively contributes to addressing the American housing market's affordability challenges and increasing housing supply where it is most needed.

    05

    Conservative Leverage and Capital Structure Discipline

    Millrose maintains a conservative leverage policy, ending the year with a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 26%, well within its stated maximum target of 33%. This intentional headroom provides meaningful capacity to fund future growth without compromising financial stability. The company is also working with banking partners to expand floating rate debt capacity to better match its floating rate option payment income, while committing not to issue equity below its current book value of $35.28 per share.

    06

    Constructive Market Outlook and Geographic Diversification

    The macro backdrop entering 2026 is viewed as constructive, with early signs of rebalancing in the housing market due to moderating mortgage rates and reduced excess inventory. While specific markets like Texas and Las Vegas are being monitored for elevated supply and affordability challenges, Millrose benefits from broad-based strength across most of the Southeast, including Charlotte, Greenville, Columbia, Charleston, and Myrtle Beach, supported by strong employment growth and relatively tight supply. The geographic diversity across 30 states provides protection and opportunity.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.