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    MUR
    Earnings call· Mar 2026(Q1 FY26)

    MURPHY OIL Q1 FY26 earnings call MUR

    May 7, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Murphy Oil Q1 FY26 — Strong Operational Execution and Strategic Flexibility

    Murphy Oil delivered a strong quarter, exceeding production expectations and generating solid cash flow amidst significant commodity price volatility. The company maintained its unhedged portfolio and capital guidance, emphasizing strategic flexibility and balance sheet strength. Exploration and appraisal programs are advancing, with key wells underway in Cote d'Ivoire and Vietnam, while the company continues to evaluate new opportunities in emerging basins.

    Highlights

    4
    • Generated cash flow of $429 million, supported by higher oil prices.

    • Adjusted net income reached $47 million despite exploration expenses.

    • Production exceeded the high end of guidance by 6,000 boe/d, driven by Eagle Ford and Gulf of America outperformance.

    • Maintained capital guidance range of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, demonstrating capital discipline.

    Concerns

    3
    • Incurred $67 million in exploration expense related to two unsuccessful wells in Cote d'Ivoire.

    • Experienced slightly slower drilling progress at the Bubale exploration well in Cote d'Ivoire due to hard rock.

    • Unsuccessful in agreeing with the Ivorian government on a gas pricing structure for the Paon field development.

    Guidance & targets

    10
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Capital expenditure
    $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Exploration capital program percentage
    10% to 15%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Eagle Ford production (midterm)
    30,000 to 35,000 barrel a day range
    medium materiality
    High
    Eagle Ford production (current year)
    around 38,000 barrels a day
    medium materiality
    High
    Chinook 8 well online
    second half of this year
    high materiality
    High
    Lac Da Vang Golden Camel field startup
    starting up in the fourth quarter of 2026 and ramping through 2027
    high materiality
    High
    Cello and Banjo net contribution
    4,000 barrel a day net contribution
    medium materiality
    High
    Bubale appraisal well
    likely to drill an appraisal well at Bubale immediately
    high materiality
    Medium
    LDT North prospect gross recoverable resource range
    40 million to 80 million barrels oil equivalent
    medium materiality
    High
    Vietnam long-run Brent premium
    Brent plus maybe $2 or $3
    low materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    2
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Eagle Ford (Onshore)
    Exceeded expectations due to strong performance from new wells, benefiting from longer laterals and innovation in drilling and completions.
    Production outperformance: nearly 3,000 boe/dNew wells brought online: 15
    Gulf of America (Offshore)
    Outperformed due to high facility uptime and efficient execution of planned maintenance.
    Production outperformance: about 3,000 boe/d

    Operational metrics

    4
    Cash flow
    $429 million
    Q1 FY26

    Cash flow generated during the quarter, supported by higher oil prices.

    Adjusted net income
    $47 million
    Q1 FY26

    Adjusted net income for the quarter, including exploration expenses.

    Exploration expense
    $67 million
    Q1 FY26

    Exploration expense related to two unsuccessful wells in Cote d'Ivoire, where Murphy held a 100% working interest.

    Capital expenditure cadence
    68%
    H1 FY26

    Approximately 68% of the annual capital spend is front-loaded into the first half of the year, driven by onshore drilling and exploration/appraisal programs.

    Industry KPIs

    5
    MetricValueDetails
    D c efficiency rig activity
    Realized price differential$72USD/barrel
    Sanctioned expansion backlog40 million to 80 millionbarrels oil equivalent
    Basin level production volume6,000boe/d
    FCF shareholder distributions

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    PetrobrasOwnership in Gulf of America assets (MP GOM)

    Murphy has a preferential right to acquire Petrobras' ownership in the joint venture if they decide to market it. Murphy would be interested at the right price.

    Capital programs

    2
    Chinook 8 well developmentunderway

    Benefit: 15 MBOE/d gross

    Development well targeting Wilcox sands, effectively replacing a previously producing well with mechanical issues. Economics improved after the purchase of the Pioneer FPSO in the prior year. Expected to come online in the second half of 2026.

    Lac Da Vang (Golden Camel) field developmentunderway

    Development includes the installation of an FSO later this year, with the field starting up in Q4 2026 and ramping through 2027. This FSO will also be used for potential tie-backs from other discoveries like LDT North.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Geopolitical developments and commodity price volatilityOngoing

    Realized oil prices exceeded $90 per barrel in March, but average Q1 realized price was $72 per barrel, reflecting significant volatility.

    Mitigation: Operating with discipline and a long-term mindset; maintaining an unhedged portfolio and strong balance sheet for flexibility.

    Slower drilling progress at Bubale exploration wellQ1 FY26

    Well taking longer than hoped for

    Mitigation: Team progress is good despite hard rock in the Turonian section; committed to providing an update once operations are complete and data evaluated.

    Unsuccessful gas pricing agreement for Paon field developmentOngoing

    No agreement reached on gas pricing structure

    Mitigation: Seeking resource density from nearby discoveries (e.g., Bubale) to add scale and potentially make the project commercial at a lower gas price, justifying pipeline costs.

    Capital program front-loading and potential for budget overrunsFY26

    Approximately 68% of annual spend in H1 FY26

    Mitigation: High confidence in delivering within the guided range based on past performance; non-operated opportunities in Eagle Ford are not expected to be significant. An appraisal well at Bubale (if successful) would be outside the current range.

    What to watch in Q2 FY26

    5

    Bubale exploration well results

    Next quarter
    CurrentActively drilling in Turonian section, slower progress than hoped
    TargetUpdate on operations completion and data evaluation

    Why it matters

    A discovery could significantly impact the company's exploration portfolio and potentially enhance the Paon field's viability.

    We will provide an update once operations are complete and the data have been fully evaluated.

    Q&A highlights

    5

    Can you provide color on the geological concept for Bubale, drilling progress, and why it's taking longer?

    The main objective is the Cenomanian target, with a shallower Turonian secondary objective where drilling is currently underway. Slower drilling progress than hoped for, due to hard rock in the Turonian section, is causing delays. No definitive results yet as the primary objective has not been reached.

    We are currently drilling the well in the Turonian section. We have experienced slightly slower drilling progress than we had hoped for. So the well is taking a little longer to announce a result because we're still drilling it, and we've had a little bit slower rate of progress drilling.

    asked by Arun Jayaram · answered by Eric Hambly

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Market Environment and Strategic Flexibility

    Murphy Oil navigated a quarter marked by elevated volatility in energy markets due to geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East. The company's unhedged, oil-weighted portfolio allowed it to fully capture higher prices, with realized prices exceeding $90 per barrel in March. Management emphasized flexibility as a competitive advantage, leveraging its strong balance sheet to manage through cycles without relying on hedging for financial stability.

    02

    Operational Execution and Production Outperformance

    The company delivered robust operational execution, with production exceeding the high end of guidance by 6,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. This outperformance was driven roughly evenly by onshore and offshore operations. Eagle Ford assets surpassed expectations by nearly 3,000 boe/d due to strong performance from 15 new wells, while the Gulf of America outperformed by about 3,000 boe/d through high facility uptime and efficient maintenance.

    03

    Exploration and Appraisal Program Update

    Murphy is making meaningful progress across its exploration and appraisal program. Drilling continues at the Bubale exploration well in Cote d'Ivoire, with an update expected upon completion and data evaluation, despite slower-than-hoped drilling progress. In Vietnam, operations are concluding on the HSV-3X appraisal well, with HSV-4X next, to define the field's full potential and inform development plans. The company also highlighted new opportunities in Cameroon and Morocco.

    04

    Paon Field Development Challenges

    The development of the Paon field in Cote d'Ivoire faces challenges related to gas pricing. While a field development plan was submitted, the company has been unsuccessful in agreeing on a gas pricing structure with the Ivorian government that would meet its investment threshold. The field has a large gas cap, making gas pricing critical for project economics. Any nearby resource discovery, including at Bubale, could add scale and potentially improve project viability.

    05

    Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns

    Murphy remains committed to a competitive dividend and opportunistic share repurchases to concentrate wealth for existing shareholders. The company plans to be flexible with the timing of📎 buybacks, assessing share price relative to oil price movements. While the capital return framework is largely unchanged, the execution timing will be opportunistic in response to extreme commodity price volatility, also targeting balance sheet strength.

    06

    Chinook 8 Well and Gulf of America Strategy

    The Chinook 8 well, expected online in the second half of the year, is a significant development well targeting underdeveloped Wilcox sands in an existing field. The project's economics improved after Murphy purchased the FPSO used to produce the field last year. The company's strategy in the Gulf of America focuses on smaller opportunities near existing infrastructure, while international exploration targets larger resources with lower well costs in emerging basins.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.