How quickly could physical supplies normalize if the geopolitical situation improves, given depleted inventories and disrupted flows?

Normalization is unlikely in the near term, and supply tightness/volatility is expected to persist 'well into next year' due to infrastructure damage and the prolonged nature of the conflict. “So I think we're looking at well into next year before this thing even begins to unwind.”

Why is NTI delivery at the lower end of guidance, and how does this affect future growth pace and profitability? How about share buybacks?

NTI delivery is at the lower end (45 stores) due to organic pipeline only, excluding tuck-in acquisitions. They are pulling forward FY27 construction. Stores take ~3 years to ramp. CapEx is trending high due to proactive lifecycle investments and land bank. Share repurchase remains a key capital allocation lever. “this year, we are going to be at the lower end of our stated range, but that is without the tuck-in acquisitions that we said would take us to the high end of the range.”

How has the conversion of new sign-ups been in terms of consistent visits and pump-to-store conversion?

Sign-ups exceeded 600,000/month in Q2, with 46% new/lapsed customers. The platform uses automated journeys and targeted offers (e.g., 'spend $5 inside, save $0.05 on gas') to drive engagement and pump-to-store conversion. “during the second quarter, sign-ups for even over that $600,000 mark every month during the quarter. Also, what we said was in the first quarter, what we were seeing was 40% of those new signees were either new or lapsed customers. That number has also ticked up in the second quarter to approaching 46% and is new or lapsed customers.”

MUSA

Murphy USA (MUSA) Q2 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Jun 2026 (Q2 FY26)· Consumer Discretionary· Aug 6, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Murphy USA Q2 FY26 — Strong Fuel Margins and Loyalty Program Growth

Murphy USA delivered resilient Q2 FY26 results, driven by strong fuel margin performance and growth in merchandise contribution, despite consumer budget pressures and market volatility. Management maintains a conservative outlook for the second half, emphasizing operational execution and the benefits of its loyalty program and strategic asset base. The company continues to invest in new store development and existing store lifecycle improvements, while also returning capital to shareholders through share repurchases.

Highlights

Fuel volume performance was positive 0.5% in Q2 FY26, despite a volatile pricing environment.
Retail fuel margins are stabilizing at higher levels, with August margins opening in the 'high 30s' cents per gallon.
Murphy Drive Rewards (MDR) sign-ups exceeded $600,000 a month in Q2 FY26, with approaching 46% new or lapsed customers.
Quick Check's Q2 performance is stabilizing, with food and beverage sales and margin turning positive.
Overall merchandise contribution dollars grew, and positive margin growth was delivered despite consumer pressures.

Concerns

Fuel margin guidance for H2 FY26 is 'somewhat conservative' due to market volatility and uncertainty.
Merchandise sales are expected to be at the 'low end of the range' for FY26 due to consumer budget pressures and Q1 weather impacts.
New-to-Industry (NTI) store openings are projected at the 'lower end of our stated range' (45 stores) for FY26, excluding tuck-in acquisitions.
The nicotine category faces a 'tough third quarter comp' due to lapping a prior year promotion.
Lottery and beer sales remain a challenge due to pinched consumer wallets and shifting preferences.

Guidance & targets

Category	Target	Timeline	Confidence
Fuel margin	$0.35 all-in margin high materiality	H2 FY26	High
Merchandise sales	towards the low end of the range medium materiality	FY26	Medium
New-to-Industry (NTI) store openings	closer to the 45 new stores medium materiality	FY26	High
Same-store fuel gallons	down 1% to down 3% high materiality	FY26	High

Segment performance

Segment	Revenue	YoY	QoQ	Margin
Quick Check Q2 performance is stabilizing with positive trends in food and beverage. Initiatives include growing the sandwich category, new bakery recipes (buttered roll, croissant s), and relaunching free coffee Friday. The company is evolving QC into a sales-first culture, improving basics like labor and shrink, and simplifying the operating model. Sandwich category: growingBakery: growthHot and iced coffee results: improvingPromotional response: stronger	—	—	—	food and beverage sales and margin turning positive

Risks & headwinds

Market volatility and uncertainty in fuel margins rest of the year

very difficult to predict where we're going to land

Mitigation:Conservative margin forecast, managing business to outperform commitments.

Consumer budget pressures impacting merchandise sales rest of the year

Leading to 'low end of the range' for merchandise target.

Mitigation:Focus on core center-of-store categories, targeted promotions, and value offerings.

Geopolitical conflict causing supply shock and tightness well into next year

material impact on domestic inventories and flows essentially globally

Mitigation:Leveraging existing asset base for product acquisition (ship channel, refineries, terminals).

Competitive pressures in specific markets (e.g., Colorado, Florida) Ongoing, but eventually stabilizes.

Initial 'painful' period with lower margins as volumes redistribute.

Mitigation:Fighting to retain market share, relying on the 'recipe' of eventual margin stabilization at higher levels.

Tough Q3 comp for nicotine due to prior year promotion Q3 FY26

tough third quarter comp as we lap that [indiscernible] promotion

Mitigation:Strength in combustibles (value-priced cigarettes), emerging OTP opportunities (new gen pouches, flavored vapes), and active participation in promotions.

Declining lottery and beer sales Ongoing

Lauda lottery remains a challenge and Beer remains a challenge

Mitigation:Focus on other strong merchandise categories, recognizing broader industry trends.

What to watch in Q3 FY26

Fuel margin performance

Next quarter (Q3 FY26)

Current high 30s

Target Sustained high margins, potentially outperforming conservative guidance.

Why it matters

Fuel margins are a primary driver of profitability, and management's conservative guidance suggests potential upside if market conditions (e.g., prolonged price fall-off) allow.

So you could call our margin forecast somewhat conservative. I would agree with that. But I would also say that that's intentional on our part because we don't know what it's going to be. And we manage our business to try to outperform our commitments.

Find out whether MUSA delivers this. Inve re-checks your case every morning.

Q&A highlights

Why is fuel margin guidance conservative, and why is merchandise guidance at the low end?

Fuel margin guidance is conservative due to market volatility, but a higher floor for retail margins is observed. Merchandise guidance is at the low end due to consumer budget pressures and Q1 weather impact.

“So you could call our margin forecast somewhat conservative. I would agree with that. But I would also say that that's intentional on our part because we don't know what it's going to be.”

asked by Irene Nattel · answered by Mindy West

2 min read 5 chapters

Detailed narrative

Fuel Market Dynamics and Supply Tightness

Management discussed the current geopolitical conflict's impact on domestic inventories and global flows, noting it's a supply shock unlike previous demand shocks. They believe a return to normal is unlikely in the near term, with tightness and volatility persisting 'well into next year' due to infrastructure damage overseas and the prolonged nature of the conflict.

This environment magnifies the value of Murphy USA's asset base, allowing them to acquire product at the ship channel and direct from refineries.

New Store Development and Capital Allocation

The company expects to deliver 45 new stores organically in FY26, at the lower end of its original range, excluding potential tuck-in acquisitions. They are pulling forward construction for some FY27 stores and making proactive lifecycle investments in existing stores (dispensers, HVAC).

Capital expenditure is trending towards the high end of the range, also driven by investments in their land bank for future growth. Share repurchase remains a key capital allocation lever, supported by strong cash flow.

Loyalty Program (MDR) Success

The Murphy Drive Rewards (MDR) program continues to show strong momentum, with sign-ups exceeding 600,000 per month in Q2 FY26, up from 400,000. A significant portion (approaching 46%) of new sign-ups are new or lapsed customers. The platform enables targeted promotions, such as 'spend $5 inside, save $0.05 on gas,' successfully driving pump-to-store conversion and fostering loyal customer behavior.

Merchandise Performance and Consumer Pressures

While overall merchandise contribution dollars grew, the company noted consumer budget pressures impacting nondiscretionary items. Strength was observed in core center-of-store categories like packaged beverages (energy drinks) and chocolate candy, with successful promotions. However, lottery and beer sales faced challenges due to pinched wallets and shifting consumer preferences, reflecting broader industry trends. Nicotine sales, particularly value-priced cigarettes and new gen pouches, remained a tailwind.

Quick Check Turnaround

Quick Check's Q2 performance is stabilizing, with food and beverage sales and margins turning positive. Initiatives include growing the sandwich category, improving bakery offerings (new recipes, croissant s), and enhancing hot/iced coffee results. The focus is on evolving QC into a 'sales first culture' similar to Murphy, improving basics like labor and shrink, and simplifying the operating model, with early signs of stronger promotional response.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.