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    NI
    Earnings call· Mar 2026(Q1 FY26)

    NISOURCE Q1 FY26 earnings call NI

    May 6, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    NiSource Q1 FY26 — Strong Start with Enhanced Data Center Growth and Increased Long-Term EPS CAGR

    NiSource reported a strong Q1 FY26, driven by regulatory execution and strategic data center partnerships, leading to an increased long-term EPS growth target. The company's Genco model is proving effective in attracting large-load customers while delivering significant savings to existing customers, though regulatory engagement in Pennsylvania remains a focus.

    Highlights

    5
    • Consolidated adjusted EPS of $1.06 in Q1 FY26, an 8% increase year-over-year.

    • Increased consolidated adjusted EPS CAGR to 9%-10% through 2033, tracking towards the high end through 2030.

    • New and expanded data center agreements (Alphabet, Amazon) expected to deliver $1.4 billion in customer savings over 15 years.

    • Secured approximately 800 MW of additional capacity for Alphabet and Amazon, with a robust pipeline of 3 GW in strategic negotiations.

    • Safest first quarter on record for employee injuries, with over 11,000 miles of leak survey completed and 113 large volume leaks mitigated.

    Concerns

    2
    • Pennsylvania Governor's letter to utilities regarding rate case strategy and investment, requiring active engagement with stakeholders.

    • Continued operation of the Shaper coal plant required by federal order, necessitating planning to accommodate the directive.

    Guidance & targets

    8
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Consolidated Adjusted EPS
    $2.02 to $2.07 per share
    high materiality
    High
    Consolidated Adjusted EPS CAGR
    9% to 10%
    high materiality
    High
    Genco EPS
    $0.25 to $0.35 per share
    medium materiality
    High
    Genco EPS
    $0.40 to $0.60 per share
    medium materiality
    High
    FFO to Debt
    14% to 16%
    high materiality
    High
    Equity Issuance
    $400 million to $600 million
    medium materiality
    High
    O&M Costs
    steady
    low materiality
    High
    Customer Demand Growth
    less than 1%
    low materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    7
    Adjusted EPS
    $1.06up $0.08 YoY
    Q1 FY26

    Represents 52% of projected midpoint earnings guidance.

    Adjusted EPS
    $0.98
    Q1 FY25

    Prior year comparable period.

    Customer savings from Genco partnerships
    $1.4B
    Over 15 years

    Unlocking cost savings for existing customers through Genco partnerships with data centers.

    Leak survey miles completed
    11,000
    Q1 FY26

    Part of proactive risk reduction programs.

    Large volume leaks mitigated
    113well above plan
    Q1 FY26

    Identified and mitigated through leak surveys.

    Customer demand growth
    less than 1%
    Through 2030

    Projected modest growth with conservative financing assumptions.

    AI contract tools productivity increase
    over 20%
    Current

    Result of leveraging AI and analytics to improve operations.

    Industry KPIs

    4
    MetricValueDetails
    Adjusted operating EPS$1.06USD
    Multi year capital plan$21BUSD
    Regulatory rate base growth9% to 11%%
    Combined electric gas framework mandatesIndiana House Bill 1002, Ohio Senate Bill 103legislation

    Orderbook & backlog

    3
    Contracted large-load capacity (Alphabet & Amazon)800 MWQ1 FY26

    additional capacity

    Sized to meet load requirements plus applicable reserve margins; pool provides flexibility to add assets over time as new customers come online.

    Data center pipeline - strategic negotiations3 GWQ1 FY26

    Progressing from developing opportunities to strategic negotiations and into signed contracts.

    Data center pipeline - developing opportunities2 GWQ1 FY26

    Line of sight to developing opportunities.

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    AlphabetNew energy infrastructure agreement for data center service15-year contract

    Utilizes advanced battery solutions and available market resources.

    AmazonExpanded collaboration and accelerated energy delivery for data center

    Serves enhancements to the existing Amazon data center strategy.

    Capital programs

    2
    Base Business Capital Investment Planunderway$21B

    Remains unchanged for base business; includes $2 billion in upside opportunities.

    Genco and Data Center-related Capitalunderway$7.6B

    Benefit: Approximately 800 MW of additional capacity for Alphabet and Amazon

    Enhances the consolidated capital plan.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Pennsylvania Regulatory EnvironmentCurrent

    Governor's letter to utilities

    Mitigation: Actively engaged with stakeholders to develop a response; evaluating future regulatory mechanisms such as trackers; 5-year financial plan built with flexibility to adapt.

    Shaper Coal Plant Continued Operation

    Second federal order requiring continued operation

    Mitigation: Planning to accommodate the directive, commitment to full regulatory compliance while maintaining customer affordability, financial stability, and reliability.

    Inflationary ClimateCurrent

    Present inflationary climate

    Mitigation: Genco partnerships unlocking cost savings totaling approximately $1.4 billion for existing customers over 15 years.

    Construction, Operating, and Market Risks for Data Centers

    N/A

    Mitigation: Contractual protections allocate risks to best-positioned parties; ring-fencing activity from core regulated business; credit support requirements; diversifying exposure across highly rated counterparties.

    What to watch in Q2 FY26

    4

    Amazon contract approval

    next quarter
    CurrentPending commission approval
    TargetApproval in June

    Why it matters

    This approval is a prerequisite for civil site work and load energization, impacting the timeline and realization of Genco benefits.

    The original Amazon contract is pending commission approval and is expected in June ahead of civil site work later this year and load energization beginning in 2017.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    What gives confidence in converting the 1-3 GW strategic negotiations bucket to 3 GW?

    Lloyd Yates stated that signing ~4 GW to date, coupled with current engagement with multiple counterparties and strong demand, supports confidence in the 3 GW pipeline. The Genco model offers a compelling competitive advantage.

    To date, we've signed approximately 4 gigawatts of capacity per day to the centers when you couple that with our current engagement with multiple counterparties and strong demand, I think those facts support our confidence in advancing the 3 gigawatts of pipeline opportunities that are in active negotiations.

    asked by Andrew Cadaivi · answered by Lloyd Yates

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Genco Model and Data Center Strategy

    NiSource's Genco model is designed for speed and flexibility, supporting growing energy demand in Northern Indiana while achieving cost savings for existing customers and driving economic growth. Recent advancements include a new partnership with Alphabet and two expansions of the Amazon agreement, accelerating and increasing service. The model ring-fences costs and risks, isolating them from the broader retail customer base and ensuring recovery through bilateral contracts, while optimizing resources and system reliability.

    02

    Customer Savings and Economic Development

    The Genco partnerships, including those with Alphabet and Amazon, are expected to deliver approximately $1.4 billion in cost savings for existing customers over the next 15 years, translating to annual savings of up to $124 per residential customer. These investments also drive economic development by creating new jobs, expanding the tax base, and supporting a skilled workforce in Indiana, positioning the state as a leader in technology-driven growth.

    03

    Operational Excellence and Safety

    NiSource achieved its safest first quarter on record for employee injuries since 2016. The company completed over 11,000 miles of leak surveys, mitigating 113 large volume leaks, and exceeded targets for electric pole inspections and replacements. AI and analytics are being leveraged to improve operational efficiency, including fleet management, IT applications, and permitting processes, with AI contract tools increasing productivity by over 20%.

    04

    Regulatory Engagement and Affordability

    The company maintains collaborative regulatory and stakeholder relationships, adapting to evolving sensitivities to balance investment needs with customer affordability. Leveraging riders in Ohio and other states helps address affordability by minimizing frequent rate cases and timing capital allocation. NiSource also supports legislation like Indiana House Bill 1002, which adopts measures like levelized billing to protect customers from bill fluctuations.

    05

    Capital Investment and Financing

    NiSource's 5-year capital investment plan for its base business remains unchanged at $21 billion, with an additional $2 billion in upside opportunities. The consolidated plan is now enhanced by $7.6 billion in Genco and data center-related capital. The company reaffirms its FFO to debt target of 14%-16% and plans for a balanced mix of cash from operations, new long-term debt, and $400 million to $600 million of equity annually to strengthen the balance sheet.

    06

    Shaper Coal Plant and Resource Mix

    NIPSCO received a second federal order requiring the continued operation of its Shaper coal plant, which is considered part of the retail customer capacity and not a Genco asset. The company plans to recover costs through the FERC process and has no current consideration of shifting it to a PPA within the Genco pool. The Genco pool strategy aims to utilize a diversified portfolio of resources, including CCGTs, batteries, and contracted generation, to meet demand without commodity risk or market exposure.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.