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    NTRA
    Earnings call· Jun 2026(Q2 FY26)

    Natera Q2 FY26 earnings call NTRA

    Aug 6, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Natera Q2 FY26 — Record Test Volumes & Raised Revenue Guidance

    Natera delivered a record-breaking quarter, driven by strong test volumes across all business segments and significant oncology milestones including FDA and PMDA approvals for Signatera. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance, reflecting robust commercial execution and ASP improvements, while continuing strategic investments in R&D for future growth initiatives like early cancer detection.

    Highlights

    5
    • Processed approximately 1,044,000 tests in Q2 FY26, setting a new company record.

    • Oncology clinical MRD units grew 56% year-over-year to 283,000 units in Q2 FY26.

    • Generated approximately $753 million in revenue in Q2 FY26, representing 38% growth year-over-year (40% ex true-ups).

    • Raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance midpoint by $100 million to $2.85 billion-$2.91 billion.

    • Achieved strong gross margins of approximately 65% in Q2 FY26, with sequential improvement.

    Concerns

    3
    • Q1 FY26 weather-related events suppressed MRD volumes by several thousand units, exaggerating Q2 sequential growth.

    • COGS increased slightly in Q2 FY26 due to an uptick in volumes from recently launched products like Fetal Focus, LATITUDE, and Signatera Genome.

    • Approximately $100 million is being spent in FY26 on development work and the FIND ECD trial, which does not yet yield top-line or margin benefits.

    Guidance & targets

    6
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2026 Revenue
    $2.85 billion to $2.91 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 Revenue Growth (ex true-ups)
    31%
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 Operating Expenses (OpEx)
    Held steady
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 Gross Margin
    Held steady
    medium materiality
    High
    Long-term Signatera ASP
    around $2,000
    high materiality
    High
    Long-term Gross Margin
    70% plus
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    1
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Women's Health
    Results were particularly strong on a seasonally adjusted basis, counteracting typical Q2 seasonality with strong new account wins driven by Fetal Focus adoption and the enhanced Panorama test launch.
    high single-digit growth

    Operational metrics

    25
    Total tests processed
    1,044,000new company record
    Q2 FY26

    Total tests processed across all business segments.

    Clinical MRD units
    283,00056% YoY growth
    Q2 FY26

    Primarily Signatera clinical units, also includes a small number of LATITUDE cases. Sequential growth was the largest to date.

    Revenue
    $753 million38% YoY growth
    Q2 FY26

    Total revenue for the quarter.

    Revenue growth ex true-ups
    40%YoY growth
    Q2 FY26

    Revenue growth excluding the impact of revenue true-ups.

    Revenue true-ups
    $52 milliontrending down
    Q2 FY26

    Amount of revenue true-ups, trending down in absolute terms and as a percent of revenue.

    Gross margin
    65%50 bps sequential improvement
    Q2 FY26

    Gross margin ex true-ups, showing sequential improvement despite increased COGS from new products.

    Signatera ASP
    $1,275increased again
    Q2 FY26

    Average Selling Price for Signatera, driven by more consistent reimbursement for Medicare Advantage and commercial plans in biomarker states. Long-term target is $2,000.

    Days Sales Outstanding (DSOs)
    57down 4 days
    Q2 FY26

    Average DSOs, showing improvement in converting volumes to cash.

    R&D spend for early cancer detection
    $100 million
    FY26

    Investment in development work and the FIND ECD trial, currently not yielding top-line or margin benefits.

    Enhanced Panorama no-call rate
    0.5%80% improvement
    Q2 FY26

    Improvement in no-call rate for the enhanced Panorama test compared to the prior version.

    Trisomy 21 detection in low fetal fraction
    100%
    Q2 FY26

    Detection rate for trisomy 21 cases in low fetal fraction patients using the enhanced Panorama test, supported by prospective blinded studies.

    Medicare coverage for kidney transplant surveillance
    6 tests
    Year 1 post-surgery

    Expanded Medicare coverage for Prospera in kidney transplant patients, effective August 30.

    Medicare coverage for heart and lung transplant surveillance
    12 tests
    Year 1 post-surgery

    Expanded Medicare coverage for Prospera in heart and lung transplant patients, effective August 30.

    New bladder cancer cases in Japan
    34,000
    Annual

    Annual incidence of bladder cancer in Japan, highlighting the market opportunity for Signatera.

    CDK4/6 inhibitor serious adverse events
    60%
    Full course of therapy

    Percentage of patients experiencing serious adverse events with CDK4/6 inhibitors, informing the rationale for the SIGNAL-ER 101 study.

    CDK4/6 inhibitor US retail cost
    $400,000
    Full course of therapy

    U.S. retail cost for a full course of CDK4/6 inhibitor therapy, informing the rationale for the SIGNAL-ER 101 study to reduce unnecessary treatment.

    HR+/HER2- breast cancer diagnoses
    200,000
    Annual

    Number of women diagnosed with HR+/HER2- breast cancer annually in the U.S., representing a large addressable population for SIGNAL-ER 101.

    PROCEED-CRC advanced adenomas sensitivity
    22.5%
    Study data

    Sensitivity for advanced adenomas demonstrated by the PROCEED-CRC study.

    PROCEED-CRC advanced adenomas specificity
    91.5%
    Study data

    Specificity for advanced adenomas demonstrated by the PROCEED-CRC study.

    PROCEED-CRC case-controlled CRC sensitivity
    95%
    Study data

    Sensitivity for colorectal cancer in the PROCEED-CRC case-controlled study.

    PROCEED-CRC case-controlled CRC specificity
    91%
    Study data

    Specificity for colorectal cancer in the PROCEED-CRC case-controlled study.

    PROCEED-CRC Stage 1 adjusted sensitivity
    91%
    Study data

    Adjusted sensitivity for Stage 1 colorectal cancer in screen-detected individuals from the PROCEED-CRC study.

    FIND study enrollment
    24,000
    To date

    Number of average risk adults enrolled in the pivotal FIND study for early cancer detection.

    Signatera ASP upside from MolDX submissions
    $150 to $200
    Long-term

    Estimated potential ASP increase from MolDX coverage for 7 additional Signatera indications.

    Prior study trisomy 21 sensitivity (different technology)
    62%
    Prior study

    Sensitivity for trisomy 21 in a prior study using a different technology, mentioned as a comparison point for the challenges of low fetal fraction.

    Industry KPIs

    6
    MetricValueDetails
    Launch access metricsCategory 1 recommendation
    Pipeline read out calendarAccelerating pace of readouts
    Regulatory approvals filingsMultiple approvals and submissions
    Peak long term sales guidance$2,000USD
    Prescription volume new startsVery strong
    Clinical trial efficacy safety data100% detection%

    Product announcements

    3
    ProductTypeDetails
    Enhanced Panorama testlaunch
    Fetal Focuslaunch
    Fetal RhD testlaunch

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    ChugaiCollaboration for Signatera PMDA submission in bladder cancer

    Natera is advancing in lockstep with Chugai, who markets atezolizumab in Japan, for the PMDA submission of Signatera as a companion diagnostic in bladder cancer.

    Risks & headwinds

    3
    Exaggerated Q2 sequential volume growth due to Q1 weather impactQ1 FY26 impact on Q2 FY26 comparison

    Q1 MRD volumes suppressed by several thousand units

    Mitigation: Management acknowledges the artificial boost and guides for a more linear growth model for forecasting Signatera units.

    Increased COGS from new product launchesNear-term

    COGS increased slightly in Q2

    Mitigation: Management expects to achieve COGS improvements over time as volumes scale and through optimization projects, aiming for 70%+ gross margin long-term.

    Significant R&D investment in early cancer detection without immediate returnsFY26

    ~$100 million in FY26

    Mitigation: Management views this as a strategic investment in a huge future market opportunity, expecting scaling benefits once launched and millions of tests per year.

    What to watch in Q3 FY26

    5

    Signatera volume growth pace

    Next quarter (Q3 FY26)
    Current34,000 sequential units (Q2 FY26)
    TargetSustained strong sequential growth, outperforming previous record of 25,000 units

    Why it matters

    To assess if the exceptional Q2 growth was an anomaly or if the momentum from sales force productivity and regulatory approvals can drive continued strong performance.

    But I wouldn't say necessarily we're going to repeat that immediately. But if you look at, I think our previous record was maybe 25,000 quarter-over-quarter or something like that. And I think we can outperform that as we move forward. And Q3 is off to a very good start.

    Q&A highlights

    5

    What are the principal drivers behind the strong Signatera volume growth, and how sustainable is this quarter-over-quarter growth, especially looking into 2027?

    Management attributed growth to the halo effect of FDA approval, significant investments in commercial and medical affairs teams, and large-scale clinical trials. They expect continued strong performance, though not necessarily repeating the record 34,000 sequential unit growth immediately, aiming to outperform the previous record of 25,000. They believe the market is reaching a tipping point where doctors increasingly adopt MRD testing.

    I think we're crossing the sort of tipping point in the field where doctors are really starting to believe in MRD as a core part of their practice.

    asked by Puneet Souda · answered by Steve Chapman

    2 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Oncology Milestones and Regulatory Successes

    Natera achieved several crucial oncology milestones for Signatera, including its U.S. FDA approval as a companion diagnostic for muscle-invasive bladder cancer, making it the first MRD test to receive such approval. It also secured Japanese PMDA approval for colorectal cancer and IVDR certification in the EU for over 20 tumor types, streamlining future clinical trials and setting up for future reimbursement in Europe. The NCCN Guideline Committee issued a Category 1 recommendation for Signatera-guided adjuvant treatment in muscle-invasive bladder cancer, expected to drive adoption and positive commercial payer coverage policies.

    02

    Women's Health Product Innovation

    The company launched its enhanced Panorama test, powered by novel SNP-informed deep sequencing technology, which significantly reduces the no-call rate to 0.5% (an 80% improvement) and demonstrates 100% detection of trisomy 21 in low fetal fraction patients. This enhancement, along with the successful Fetal Focus (single-gene NIPT) and Fetal RhD tests, has led to strong new account wins and positions Natera competitively in women's health.

    03

    Organ Health Medicare Coverage Expansion

    The final Medicare LCD for organ transplant surveillance was published in July, representing a meaningful expansion of coverage for Prospera. Medicare will now cover 6 tests for kidney transplant patients and 12 tests for heart and lung transplant patients in year 1 post-surgery, and 4 tests per year across all three categories in years 2 and 3. This policy, effective August 30, is expected to drive improvements in Prospera ASP and volumes.

    04

    Clinical Evidence Engine and SIGNAL Program

    Natera has built a robust clinical evidence engine for Signatera, initiating over 70 prospective studies since 2019. These studies are now beginning to read out, with the pace expected to accelerate, providing catalysts for guidelines, reimbursement, and volume. The company introduced SIGNAL-ER 101, its first Natera-sponsored interventional prospective study in HR+/HER2- breast cancer, aiming to use Signatera to identify patients who truly need CDK4/6 inhibitors, potentially changing practice and reducing overtreatment.

    05

    Early Cancer Detection (ECD) Progress

    The pivotal FIND study for early cancer detection is approaching full enrollment, with approximately 24,000 average risk adults enrolled to date and completion expected in Q3 FY26. The company plans to read out the FIND cohort in 2027, with ongoing productive conversations with the FDA. Natera remains enthusiastic about developing a differentiated product with high sensitivity for advanced adenomas.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.