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Nexstar (NXST) Q4 FY25 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Dec 2025 (Q4 FY25)· Communication Services· Feb 26, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Nexstar Q4 FY25 — Strong Execution and Strategic Progress Towards TEGNA Acquisition

Nexstar delivered Q4 FY25 results marked by strong operational execution and strategic advancements, including significant distribution agreement renewals and continued progress on the TEGNA acquisition. The company's focus on live news and sports programming drove strong performance at The CW and NewsNation, while digital revenue growth outpaced expectations. Management remains focused on closing the TEGNA deal, optimizing digital operations, and realizing further expense efficiencies in the upcoming election cycle.

Highlights

5
  • Successfully renewed distribution agreements representing over 60% of subscriber base in 2025.

  • The CW exceeded financial expectations in 2025, improving cash flow by 32% year-over-year.

  • NewsNation posted its strongest year ever in viewership, becoming the #1 fastest-growing cable news network in the 25-54 demo in 2025.

  • Nonpolitical advertising was up 4.5% in Q4 FY25, better than the low single-digit decrease expected.

  • Digital revenue grew high single digits in 2025 and is expected to surpass national advertising revenue in 2026.

Concerns

4
  • Net revenue declined 13.4% year-over-year to $1.29 billion in Q4 FY25, primarily due to a $233 million year-over-year decrease in political advertising.

  • Adjusted EBITDA decreased by $195 million year-over-year to $433 million in Q4 FY25.

  • Income from equity method investments (TV Food Network) declined $12 million or 67% in Q4 FY25, leading to a write-down.

  • Q1 FY26 nonpolitical advertising is forecast to be flattish year-over-year due to the negative impact of the Super Bowl airing on NBC this year compared to FOX last year.

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
TEGNA Acquisition Close
by the end of second quarter of 2026
high materiality
High
Full Year Adjusted EBITDA
$1.95 billion to $2.05 billion
high materiality
High
The CW Profitability
profitable
medium materiality
High
Distribution Revenue Growth (Gross)
low single digits
medium materiality
High
Distribution Revenue Growth (Net)
mid-single digits
medium materiality
High
Broadcast Political Advertising Share
low double-digit percentage
high materiality
High
Political Advertising Revenue Timing
20% in H1 2026, 80% in H2 2026
medium materiality
High
Cash Operating Expense Savings
additional savings
medium materiality
High
The CW Loss Reduction
30% reduction
medium materiality
High
Capital Expenditure
$125 million to $130 million
medium materiality
High
Capital Expenditure
$30 million to $35 million
medium materiality
High
Cash Interest Expense
$355 million to $365 million
medium materiality
High
Cash Interest Expense
$85 million range
medium materiality
High
Cash Taxes
$315 million to $325 million range
medium materiality
High
State Income Tax
$2.6 million range
low materiality
High
Programming Payments vs Amortization
payments in excess by $25 million to $30 million
medium materiality
High
Programming Payments vs Amortization
payments in excess by $1 million
low materiality
High
Mandatory Debt Repayments
$111 million
medium materiality
High
Pension and Defined Benefit Plan Contributions
$36 million
low materiality
High
Anticipated Dividend
approximately $228 million
medium materiality
High

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
The CW Network
The CW exceeded financial expectations in 2025, driven by its sports-focused programming strategy. The network is on track for profitability by Q4 2026 and expects to reduce losses by another 30% in 2026.
Viewership increase: 19% YoY (2025)Cash flow improvement: 32% (2025)Profitability expected: Q4 FY26Loss reduction: 30% in 2026 from 2025 levelsSchedule sports/sports adjacent: nearly 47% (2026)Outperformance vs Big 4 primetime: 273x (2024-2025 season, up from 45x a year ago)
———improved cash flow by 32%

Deals & partnerships

TEGNA Acquisition of local television broadcaster to expand scale and competitive position.

Landmark agreement to acquire TEGNA, with HSR filings and FCC license transfer applications submitted. The transaction aims to establish a framework for local television broadcasters to compete with big tech and media, strengthening local journalism and expanding advertising solutions.

Risks & headwinds

Political advertising displacement back half of the year [2026]

expected to impact nonpolitical advertising

Mitigation:Capitalizing on the midterm election political advertising opportunity.

MVPD subscriber attrition ongoing

offsetting distribution revenue growth

Mitigation:Renewing distribution agreements, extending network affiliation agreements, renegotiating CW agreements, and focusing on vMVPD subscribers and skinny bundles.

AI search headwinds ongoing

despite AI search headwinds, digital revenue grew high single digits

Mitigation:Expanding audience reach with local CTV apps and broadening advertiser solutions across owned and third-party inventory.

Regulatory uncertainty for TEGNA acquisition until Q2 2026 close

no definitive feedback on market definition from DOJ; no conversations about divestitures yet

Mitigation:Vigorously engaging with DOJ and FCC, providing economic studies, and maintaining confidence in closing the deal with de minimis divestitures if any.

Macro advertising environment Q1 FY26

Q1 FY26 nonpolitical advertising forecast to be flattish YoY

Mitigation:Focusing on developing new digital advertising products, leveraging strong local sales force, and monitoring category trends.

What to watch in Q1 FY26

TEGNA Acquisition Close

by end of Q2 FY26
Current on track for end of Q2 2026
Target closed

Why it matters

The acquisition is pivotal for Nexstar's scale, competitive positioning against big tech, and shareholder value creation.

Our explanation for close is by the end of second quarter of 2026, and that remains unchanged.

Find out whether NXST delivers this. Inve re-checks your case every morning.

Q&A highlights

Inquired about the timing of FCC cap elimination and TEGNA deal approval, especially after recent presidential comments, and how AI tools are contributing to expense reduction and digital optimization.

Perry Sook expressed hope for enthusiasm over anxiety regarding the deal, noting the FCC shot clock expires June 1 and they expect to close by end of Q2 2026. Lee Gliha explained digital growth is driven by local sales force and audience extension. Michael Biard detailed AI deployment in newsrooms for workflow efficiency and upcoming use in sales for prospecting and development.

“Our explanation for close is by the end of second quarter of 2026, and that remains unchanged.”

asked by Dan Kurnos · answered by Perry Sook

3 min read 8 chapters

Detailed narrative

TEGNA Acquisition Progress and Rationale

Nexstar is making great progress on its acquisition of TEGNA, with HSR and FCC filings submitted and responses provided to all regulatory inquiries. The company expects to close by the end of Q2 2026, highlighting the transaction's importance in enabling local broadcasters to compete with big tech and media, while strengthening local journalism.

Management expressed confidence in the deal's approval, noting that any potential divestitures would be de minimis to the overall value.

Strategic Importance of Broadcast for Live Sports

Broadcast television remains unmatched in delivering scaled audiences for premium live sports and events, as evidenced by NFL viewership up 7% year-over-year, NBA viewership up 16%, and strong ratings for the NBA All-Star Game and Winter Olympics. This trend validates Nexstar's sports-focused programming strategy, which has enabled The CW to exceed financial expectations and contribute to its anticipated profitability by Q4 2026.

The CW and NewsNation Performance

The CW exceeded financial expectations in 2025, improving cash flow by 32% and is expected to be profitable by Q4 2026, with losses reduced by another 30% in 2026. NewsNation achieved its strongest year ever in viewership, becoming the fastest-growing cable news network in the 25-54 demographic, with consumer awareness exceeding 40%.

Both networks' success is attributed to a strategic focus on high-impact news and sports programming.

Digital Growth and Subscriber Trends

Digital revenue grew high single digits in 2025, with local digital business growing double digits. Digital revenue is projected to surpass national advertising revenue in 2026, marking a significant milestone that strengthens the long-term nonpolitical advertising trajectory. Subscriber trends are stabilizing, with smaller DTC platforms integrating into multichannel packages and new value-priced skinny bundles focusing on broadcast and news, which is encouraging for Nexstar's distribution outlook.

Political Advertising Outlook

The 2025-2026 election cycle is projected to generate a record $10.8 billion in political advertising, with broadcast expected to capture nearly 50% or $5.28 billion. Nexstar anticipates a low double-digit share of total broadcast political advertising, with 20% expected in H1 2026 and 80% in H2 2026.

The company's presence in over 80% of contested election markets positions it well to capitalize on this opportunity, though political advertising is expected to displace nonpolitical advertising in the second half of 2026.

Operational Efficiency and AI Adoption

Nexstar is focused on digital optimization and expense rationalization, streamlining operations, automating production functions, and aligning incentive compensation. The company has deployed AI tools in local newsrooms to enhance workflow efficiency, such as optimizing stories for multi-platform use and finding information sources.

Additionally, AI is being developed for the sales team to aid prospecting, sales development, and workflow, contributing to expected additional cash operating expense savings in 2026.

Programmatic Advertising Strategy

Nexstar plans to integrate TEGNA's Premion platform for programmatic digital advertising, leveraging its technology and sales force to expand its stations' presence in the CTV market. The company is also actively developing a programmatic linear solution with external partners to reduce the frictional cost of buying linear inventory.

The goal is to achieve a single, seamless system from 'pitch to pay' for advertising, akin to digital inventory processes.

Alternative Uses of Spectrum

Nexstar, through its joint venture EdgeBeam Wireless with other broadcasters, is in the early stages of formulating its management team and go-to-market strategy for alternative uses of spectrum. The organization is beginning to see early orders and aims to demonstrate the unique benefits of broadcast spectrum for high-speed data transmission, although it is acknowledged that this will take a long time to become a meaningful contributor.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.