Oshkosh (OSK) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Why is the implied Q2 EPS at $2.60, and why isn't the vocational segment catching up quicker on Q1 shipment delays?

Matt Field explained that Q2 elements haven't changed much, with Access expected to be weaker YoY. Vocational catch-up is slower due to facility delays impacting capacity. John Pfeifer added that Access expectations are now better, but Vocational is taking a more measured approach, though fire truck gains will be significant.

“The elements in Q2 largely haven't changed. Year-over-year, we were always expecting access to be a little weaker. In terms of vocational we said 2 things. One, obviously, we did have the shipments that would slip into Q2. But we're also seeing some delays in our facilities and so as we implement our production changes, the timing of some of that capacity coming on stream is pushing later into the year.”

asked by David Raso · answered by Matthew Field

Will Transport segment revenue reach a full run rate, and is a second tranche of NGDV orders needed to hit the segment's margin guide?

Matt Field confirmed revenue and delivery will grow sequentially through the year. An additional NGDV order in the second half is assumed and implicit in guidance. John Pfeifer emphasized the importance of the order for A606 accounting and margin boost.

“We are assuming there is an order in the back half of the year as well, and so that's implicit in our guidance.”

asked by David Raso · answered by Matthew Field

Does the vocational segment expect any pre-buy driven demand, and is it embedded in the guide for the back half?

Matt Field stated they are not expecting significant pre-buy and are not counting on it in their guidance. John Pfeifer added that if pre-buy happens, it would be upside to current expectations.

“So we're not expecting significant levels of prebuy. That might happen in the back half, but we're certainly not counting on it.”

asked by Tami Zakaria · answered by Matthew Field

How does the evolving tariff picture, including the $13 million IEEPA benefit and new Section 232, flow through the P&L for the year?

Matt Field explained the $13.5 million accrual in Q1 is part of a $23 million full-year IEEPA refund claim, mostly for prior year. He expects IEEPA to largely offset the 232 expansion impact, resulting in a "negligible to 0 impact" for the year. John Pfeifer noted "more IEEPA to come."

“So we think it's a negligible to 0 impact on the year between EPA and 232.”

asked by Mircea Dobre · answered by Matthew Field

Can you unpack vocational segment margins, including manufacturing costs/mix impact, and provide revised full-year margin expectations?

Matt Field attributed margin impact to lower volume, adverse segment mix (fewer fire trucks), and stranded manufacturing overhead costs from capacity investments. He stated full-year margins would likely fall "below 17% to be clear, but within the 16%" range, still within the long-term 16-18% target.

“It most likely will fall below that with some of the changes to our capacity timing, but below the 17% to be clear, but within the 16%.”

asked by Angel Castillo Malpica · answered by Matthew Field

What is the M&A strategy, and what factors support the back-end loaded guidance, particularly those within management's control?

John Pfeifer described an "always on" M&A process, patient and picky, with recent focus on technology deals (e.g., Canvas). For H2, confidence comes from Access momentum, price-cost improvement, increased fire truck production, NGDV ramp and expected order, and new FMTV contract with higher pricing/margins. He emphasized these factors are largely within their control.

“So those are the primary factors. If you look at that, a lot of that is within our control.”

asked by Jamie Cook · answered by John Pfeifer