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    OSK
    Earnings call· Mar 2026(Q1 FY26)

    OSHKOSH Q1 FY26 earnings call OSK

    May 8, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Oshkosh Q1 FY26 — Maintaining Full-Year Guidance Amidst Dynamic Environment

    Oshkosh maintained its full-year adjusted EPS guidance despite a Q1 miss driven by vocational segment shipment delays and unfavorable mix. Strong order activity in Access and robust backlogs across segments, coupled with anticipated production improvements and new contract contributions in the second half, underpin confidence in achieving full-year and 2028 targets. Management is actively managing dynamic cost environments and geopolitical uncertainties.

    Highlights

    5

    • Consolidated sales of approximately $2.3 billion.

    • Access segment orders exceeded $1.5 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.6.

    • Access segment backlog of $1.8 billion at quarter-end.

    • Vocational segment strong backlog of $6.6 billion.

    • Transport segment Delivery Vehicle revenue grew by $166 million to $217 million, representing 42% of segment sales.

    Concerns

    4

    • Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.85 was modestly below expectations (expected approximately half of prior year's amount).

    • Fewer fire truck shipments in vocational segment due to planned customer pickups not completed, impacting Q1 results.

    • Adjusted operating income down to $96 million from $192 million YoY, primarily due to unfavorable mix, higher manufacturing overhead, and lower sales volume.

    • Vocational segment Q1 adjusted operating income margin of 11.4% (vs. long-term target of 16-18%, and prior guide of 17%).

    Guidance & targets

    6
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year Adjusted EPS
    $11.50
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year Free Cash Flow
    $550 million to $650 million
    high materiality
    High
    Vocational segment operating margin
    below 17% to be clear, but within the 16%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    NGDV production units
    low end of 16,000 to 20,000 units
    medium materiality
    High
    Access segment contribution to full-year results
    modestly greater contribution
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Full-year tariff impact
    negligible to 0 impact
    low materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Access
    Sales were better than expected given strong Q4 2025 volume. Lower sales volume was partially offset by favorable currency. Demand remained robust, particularly driven by mega projects like data centers. Adjusted operating income margin decreased relative to last year due to mix, price-cost dynamics, and lower sales volume.
    Book-to-bill ratio: 1.6Backlog: $1.8 billion
    		$943 millionroughly flat—4.1%
    Vocational
    Sales were down due to lower refuse vehicle sales (as expected) and fewer municipal fire truck deliveries, despite modest production growth. This was impacted by lower sales volume, higher manufacturing overhead costs, and adverse sales mix, partially offset by favorable price-cost dynamics. Adjusted operating income margin was 11.4%.
    Backlog: $6.6 billion
    		$825 milliondown from last year—$94 million
    Transport
    Sales increased due to higher sales volume and the impact of cumulative catch-up adjustments. Delivery Vehicle revenue grew more than 30% sequentially compared to Q4 2025. Defense revenue was lower compared with last year due to lower tactical wheeled vehicle and aftermarket sales volumes. Operating income was up due to lower adverse cumulative catch-up adjustments and higher sales volume, partially offset by higher manufacturing overhead costs and adverse mix.
    Delivery Vehicle revenue: $217 millionDelivery Vehicle revenue growth: $166 millionDelivery Vehicle sales as % of segment sales: 42%
    		$513 millionincreased $50 million—$4 million

    Operational metrics

    18
    Consolidated Sales
    $2.3 billionflat compared to the same quarter last year
    Q1 FY26

    Offsetting factors included pricing, favorable currency, and cumulative catch-up adjustments against lower sales volume.

    Adjusted Operating Income
    $96 milliondown from $192 million from the prior year
    Q1 FY26

    Primarily due to unfavorable mix (across segments, products, and channel mix in Access), higher manufacturing overhead costs, and lower sales volume.

    Adjusted EPS
    $0.85modestly below expectations
    Q1 FY26

    Expectations were approximately half of the prior year's amount.

    Shares Repurchased
    approximately 300,000 shares
    Q1 FY26

    Repurchased during the quarter.

    Revolving Credit Facility
    $1.6 billion
    Q1 FY26

    Refinanced in March.

    IEEPA Refunds Benefit
    $13 million
    Q1 FY26

    Recorded as a benefit in the quarter.

    IEEPA Refunds Estimate (Full Year)
    $23 million
    FY26

    Estimate for the full year impact, reflecting direct payments and excluding payments made by suppliers.

    Delivery Vehicle Revenue Growth
    30%sequentially compared to Q4 2025
    Q1 FY26

    Delivery Vehicle revenue grew to $217 million.

    Earnings in First Half
    30%
    H1 FY26

    Expected roughly 30% of full-year earnings in the first half, with the back half being stronger.

    Fire Truck Production Growth
    10%year-on-year
    FY26

    Expected production increase, continuing from H2 last year.

    Refuse Vehicle Sales Decline
    25%-30%year-on-year
    FY26

    Expected decline for the full year without prebuy, Q1 was down about 25%.

    IEEPA Refund Claim (Prior Year)
    $17 million
    prior year

    Portion of the $23 million full refund claim associated with prior year material.

    IEEPA Refund Claim (Q2 Remainder)
    $4 million
    Q2 FY26

    Remainder of the IEEPA refund expected in Q2, after $13.5 million accrued in Q1.

    Steel Price Increase
    25%
    current

    Impact of inflation from geopolitical conflict.

    Aluminum Price Increase
    up more than that
    current

    Impact of inflation from geopolitical conflict.

    Access Equipment Utilization
    getting better
    current

    Triangulated from telematics data and customer feedback, a positive sign for the industry.

    Used Market in Access Equipment
    healthy
    current

    A positive sign for the industry, supporting new equipment orders.

    Fire Truck Deliveries
    a lot more
    Q2 FY26

    Increased deliveries in the first part of Q2, addressing pent-up demand from Q1 shipment delays.

    Industry KPIs

    5
    MetricValueDetails
    Capacity expansion$150 millionUSD
    Tariff cost impact$13 million (Q1 benefit); $23 million (full year estimate)USD
    Data center prime power demand—
    Order backlog order intake by segment$1.5 billion (Access orders); $1.8 billion (Access backlog); $6.6 billion (Vocational backlog)USD
    Industry production market size forecastsdown 25%-30%%

    Orderbook & backlog

    3
    Access Segment Backlog$1.8 billionQ1 FY26 end
    Vocational Segment Backlog$6.6 billionQ1 FY26 end
    Jetway Backlogextends beyond 12 monthsQ1 FY26 end

    Investing in capacity to improve delivery times.

    Product announcements

    4
    ProductTypeDetails
    New Boom Liftslaunch
    26-foot Micro-size Scissor Liftlaunch
    Clear Sky Connected Vehicle Technologylaunch
    AI-enabled Material Contamination Detection Technology (McNeilus IQ platform)launch

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    CanvasTechnology acquisition to support JLG's autonomy strategy.

    Canvas is a really important part of JLG's autonomy strategy, contributing to solutions for labor constraints and job site efficiency.

    US Department of DefenseFMTV contract extension for low velocity air drop units.

    The contract extension was signed in June of 2025, with production of low velocity air drop units expected to grow in the second half of the year.

    Capital programs

    1
    Vocational Segment Throughput and Production Improvementsunderway$150 million
    Spent to date: about halfway through end of last year

    Benefit: improved throughput and production

    Planned spending to improve overall throughput and production, with the bulk of the investment expected to be completed by the end of the year. Some delays in facility construction timing shifted completion later than originally anticipated.

    Risks & headwinds

    6
    Fewer fire truck shipments in Vocational segmentQ1 FY26

    Impacted Q1 EPS ($0.85 vs expected ~0.96) and vocational segment margin (11.4% vs prior 17% guide).

    Mitigation: Focused on modernizing production flow, removing bottlenecks, and targeted capital investments; already seeing "a lot more fire truck deliveries in the first part of Q2".

    Dynamic cost environment (tariffs, commodity prices)Ongoing, embedded in full-year guidance.

    Steel up 25%, aluminum up more, oil prices. Net tariff impact expected to be negligible to 0 for FY26.

    Mitigation: Actively managing through supply chain and manufacturing actions, pricing, and cost reductions; expect price-cost to improve in H2.

    Broader nonresidential construction activity impacted by macroeconomic factorsOngoing.

    Not quantified, but noted as a headwind for Access segment despite mega project strength.

    Mitigation: Focus on innovation and productivity, new products for specific applications (data centers).

    Refuse vehicle sales declineFY26

    Expected "down about 25%, 30% for the year".

    Mitigation: Investing in technology (e.g., contamination detection) to address customer needs and long-term market health.

    Geopolitical uncertainty driving inflationOngoing.

    Linked to inflation in steel, aluminum, and oil prices.

    Mitigation: Embedded in guidance, world-class teams working on footprint positioning to keep costs low.

    Vocational segment facility construction timing delaysFY26, bulk of investments expected to be completed by end of year.

    Affects seasonality in Q2, pushing capacity coming online later into the year.

    Mitigation: Actively managing investments, expecting bulk of investments to be completed by year-end.

    What to watch in Q2 FY26

    5

    Vocational Fire Truck Deliveries

    Q2 FY26
    CurrentBelow expectations in Q1 due to weather/travel disruptions.
    TargetSignificant increase in Q2.

    Why it matters

    Critical for achieving full-year vocational segment performance and overall EPS guidance, as Q1 shortfalls were a key reason for the miss.

    Yes, we've had a lot more fire truck deliveries in the first part of Q2. As a result of that pent-up full on shipments due to the factors we mentioned.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Why is the implied Q2 EPS at $2.60, and why isn't the vocational segment catching up quicker on Q1 shipment delays?

    Matt Field explained that Q2 elements haven't changed much, with Access expected to be weaker YoY. Vocational catch-up is slower due to facility delays impacting capacity. John Pfeifer added that Access expectations are now better, but Vocational is taking a more measured approach, though fire truck gains will be significant.

    “The elements in Q2 largely haven't changed. Year-over-year, we were always expecting access to be a little weaker. In terms of vocational we said 2 things. One, obviously, we did have the shipments that would slip into Q2. But we're also seeing some delays in our facilities and so as we implement our production changes, the timing of some of that capacity coming on stream is pushing later into the year.”

    asked by David Raso · answered by Matthew Field

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q1 Performance Overview

    Consolidated sales for the first quarter were $2.3 billion, flat compared to the same quarter last year. Adjusted earnings per share was $0.85, modestly below expectations, primarily due to fewer fire truck shipments in the vocational segment and unfavorable mix. Adjusted operating income decreased to $96 million from $192 million from the prior year, driven by unfavorable mix, higher manufacturing overhead costs, and lower sales volume.

    02

    Access Segment Strength and Innovation

    Demand in the Access segment is improving, supported by mega projects, including data center-related construction. Orders in the quarter exceeded $1.5 billion, resulting in a strong book-to-bill ratio of 1.6 and a backlog of $1.8 billion at quarter-end. The company showcased new boom lifts and micro-sized scissor lifts, with the latter seeing strong adoption in data center applications. Advancements in autonomy, such as Canvas Robotics and robotic welding, also generated strong customer interest.

    03

    Vocational Segment Execution and Production Improvements

    The Vocational segment maintains a strong backlog of $6.6 billion. While fire truck production increased year-over-year, Q1 shipments were below expectations due to weather and travel-related disruptions impacting customer pickups. Management is focused on modernizing and improving production flow, removing bottlenecks, and making targeted capital investments, expecting further improvements in throughput and deliveries in the quarters ahead. Oshkosh AeroTech also performed well, supported by strong demand and a Jetway backlog extending beyond 12 months.

    04

    Transport Segment Progress and Program Ramps

    In the Transport segment, NGDV production is on track, with the fleet surpassing 20 million miles and operating in 48 states, receiving positive feedback from the USPS. NGDV production will continue to build through the year, with a greater contribution expected in the second half. The FMTV program is also progressing, with the launch of low velocity air drop units production expected to grow in the second half under a contract extension signed in June 2025.

    05

    Financial Outlook and Confidence in 2028 Targets

    Despite Q1 challenges, Oshkosh maintained its full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $11.50 and free cash flow guidance of $550 million to $650 million. The second half of the year is expected to be stronger, reflecting improved price-cost dynamics in Access, higher fire truck production, increased NGDV ramp, and contributions from the new FMTV contract. The company remains confident in its progress towards delivering on its 2028 targets, citing strong backlog, continued production improvements, and NGDV ramp-up.

    06

    Tariff Management and Cost Environment

    The company recorded a benefit for IEEPA refunds of about $13 million in Q1, with a full-year estimate of $23 million for direct payments. Management expects IEEPA tariff recoveries to broadly offset the additional cost of the Section 232 expansion, resulting in a negligible to zero net impact from tariffs for the year. The company is actively managing the dynamic cost environment, including inflation from geopolitical conflicts, through pricing, cost actions, and supply chain adjustments.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.