Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Confirm jet yield estimate (15%) and discuss jet market dynamics (supply/demand, wider jet vs. diesel spreads).

Will Monteleone confirmed 15% is reasonable and noted economic incentive to maximize jet yields, especially in the Pacific. He highlighted jet as a difficult molecule to make, with global crude distillation offline and Persian Gulf export reductions creating tightness, leading to strong regrade spreads.

“I think 15% is probably reasonable. And again, I some of this depends on some of our jet versus ULSD objectives. But as you indicated, given the spreads between jet and ULSD, we see a high -- an attractive economic incentive to try and maximize jet yields, particularly in the Pacific.”

asked by Matthew Blair · answered by William Monteleone

Will the $125 million Hawaii product lag reverse in Q2, and is there an estimate for April?

Shawn Flores stated it's too early to estimate the Q2 reversal as it depends on June Singapore prices. He confirmed that a drop in prop market prices would suggest a partial reversal of the Q1 impact.

“Yes, I think it's too early to give an estimate on price lag. As you know, it really depends on where Singapore prices end up in June relative to March. I think you're right, it's down in the prop market, and it would suggest a reversal -- a partial reversal of the $125 million impact.”

asked by Matthew Blair · answered by Shawn Flores

Explain why Hawaii capture was in the low 90s (below 105% target) even after adjusting for price lag, and Q2 outlook.

Shawn Flores identified two drivers: West Coast pricing flipping to a significant discount to Singapore (contractual exposure) and the blowout in gas oil/jet pricing relative to secondary products like naphtha and LPG. He noted both dynamics have normalized heading into Q2, with West Coast potentially pricing at a premium.

“One was typically we see West Coast pricing to a premium to Singapore in most historical periods. That flipped to a significant discount, particularly LA jet versus Singapore jet and LA diesel versus Singapore gas oil. We do have some contractual exposure to the West Coast. And so that was -- let's call it, 5% to 10% capture headwind.”

asked by Alexa Petrick · answered by Shawn Flores

Is the Hawaii turnaround still on track for late June, is there flexibility, and how should investors think about its impact?

Will Monteleone confirmed the turnaround is tracking for late June, noting limited flexibility beyond weeks due to hydrocracker catalyst life and contractor scheduling. Richard Creamer added that ensuring product supply in Hawaii is a primary goal influencing timing. The majority of the financial impact is expected in Q3.

“That's correct, Alexa. We already shifted it, I'll say, weeks and I think that's probably the extent of the flexibility that we have. And again, I think we really tie our decision on turnaround timing toward hydrocracker catalyst life.”

asked by Alexa Petrick · answered by William Monteleone

Given the convergence of Singapore cracks with other regions, is the market stabilizing, or is there potential for spikes due to refinery shut-ins?

Will Monteleone suggested that after initial conflict-driven disruption and hoarding, freight has normalized, leading to transport parity economics between Atlantic and Pacific Basins. He noted that future spikes depend on major factors changing, and Asia/Europe will compete to source barrels given their deficit positions.

“I think now you're seeing freight normalize. And again, kind of the ability to arbitrage products between the Atlantic and Pacific Basin, you're getting back into, I'll just say, transport parity economics, between Atlantic and Pacific Basin.”

asked by Jason Gabelman · answered by William Monteleone

If 2025 exemptions are received, will the company monetize most of its excess RINs position?

Shawn Flores stated it's a fair assumption, but the company prefers clarity from the EPA on 2025 exemptions before further monetizing historical excess RINs and any new relief.

“Yes, I think that's probably a fair assumption. We've monetized less than half to date. I think we're -- would prefer to have clarity from the EPA on 2025 exemptions before further monetizing both the historical excess and then any new relief that we would get related to 2025.”

asked by Jason Gabelman · answered by Shawn Flores

Given the slowdown in buybacks post-Iran and strong FCF, will the company be active in buybacks, or will cash go to the balance sheet?

Will Monteleone reiterated the opportunistic framework, stating that buyback cadence is driven by excess capital, forward outlook, and intrinsic value. The company will be more aggressive with deeper discounts to intrinsic value and more moderate with less attractive discounts.

“I think our historical framework still holds today. And again, I think we've been in an excess capital position and I've taken an opportunistic framework towards our share repurchases.”

asked by Zachary Parham · answered by William Monteleone