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    PBA
    Earnings call· Jun 2025(Q2 FY25)

    PEMBINA PIPELINE CORP PBA

    Aug 8, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Pembina Pipeline Corporation Q2 FY25 — Adjusted EBITDA of $1.013 Billion and Updated Full-Year Guidance

    Pembina Pipeline reported solid second-quarter results, with adjusted EBITDA exceeding $1 billion, and updated its full-year guidance range. The company continues to advance key growth projects like Cedar LNG and RFS IV, while also expanding its propane export capabilities and pipeline systems. Management remains confident in its integrated value chain and ability to capture growth in the WCSB, despite increasing competition and commodity price volatility.

    Highlights

    5
    • Achieved quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $1.013 billion.

    • Cedar LNG Project remains on budget and on time for a late 2028 in-service date, with steel cutting commenced.

    • RFS IV project is trending approximately 5% under its previous cost estimate, with a revised total cost of approximately $500 million.

    • Total volumes in the Pipeline and Facilities divisions increased by 1% year-over-year to 3.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

    • Weighted average contract life on 1 million barrels of firm contracted volumes on Peace and Northern pipelines increased slightly to 7.5 years.

    Concerns

    5
    • Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 7% over the same period in the prior year.

    • Earnings decreased by 13% year-over-year to $417 million.

    • Lower net revenue in Marketing & New Ventures due to decreased NGL margins from lower butane and propane prices, coupled with lower volumes.

    • Lower realized gains on crude oil-based derivatives impacted Marketing & New Ventures results.

    • Full-year 2025 capital investment program increased by $200 million to $1.3 billion.

    Guidance & targets

    14
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA
    $4.225 billion to $4.425 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Cedar LNG Project in-service date
    Late 2028
    high materiality
    High
    Cedar LNG capacity remarketing finalization
    By the end of 2025
    medium materiality
    High
    RFS IV project in-service date
    First half of 2026
    medium materiality
    High
    RFS IV project total cost
    Approximately $500 million
    medium materiality
    High
    WCSB annual volume growth
    Low to mid-single-digit
    high materiality
    Medium
    Fox Creek-to-Namao Expansion FID
    By the end of 2025
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Taylor-to-Gordondale Project FID
    First quarter of 2026
    medium materiality
    Medium
    RFS III de-ethanization tower FID
    By the end of 2025
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Greenlight Electricity Centre in-service date
    2029
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Q3 2025 results
    Largely consistent with second quarter results
    low materiality
    High
    Q4 2025 results
    Stronger results expected
    low materiality
    High
    PGI contribution in H2 2025
    Higher contribution
    low materiality
    High
    NGL marketing business Q4 2025 contribution
    Stronger contribution
    low materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    4
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Pipelines
    Factors impacting the Pipelines segment included lower tolls and revenue on some assets, offset by higher volumes and revenue on others, particularly Peace, Alliance, and Nipisi.
    Lower firm tolls on Cochin Pipeline: due to recontracting in July 2024Lower revenue at Edmonton Terminals: related to decommissioning of Edmonton South Rail Terminal in Q2 2024Lower interruptible volumes and lower tolls: on Vantage PipelineHigher volumes on Peace Pipeline system: due to higher contracted volumes and fewer outagesHigher revenue on Peace Pipeline systems: due to increased tolls from contractual inflation adjustmentsHigher demand on seasonal contracts: on AllianceHigher contracted volumes: on Nipisi Pipeline
    Facilities
    The Facilities segment experienced lower volumes due to outages and restrictions, but saw higher contribution from PGI due to recent transactions.
    Lower volumes: due to planned outages at certain PGI assets and ongoing third-party egress restrictions impacting Dawson assetsHigher contribution from PGI: primarily related to recent transactions with Whitecap
    Marketing & New Ventures
    Marketing & New Ventures results reflected lower NGL margins and volumes, higher input gas prices, and lower crude derivative gains, partially offset by lower NGL derivative losses.
    Lower net revenue: due to decrease in NGL margins from lower butane and propane pricesLower volumes: resulting from third-party restrictions at Channahon Facility and planned outages at Channahon and Redwater ComplexHigher input natural gas prices: at Aux SableLower realized gains: on crude oil-based derivativesLower realized losses: on NGL-based derivatives (partially offsetting)
    Corporate
    Corporate segment results were higher due to lower incentive costs.
    Lower incentive costs: driven by change in Pembina's share price compared to Q2 2024

    Operational metrics

    8
    Adjusted EBITDA
    $1.013 billion7% decrease over same period in prior year
    Q2 FY25

    Quarterly adjusted EBITDA.

    Earnings
    $417 million13% decrease over same period in prior year
    Q2 FY25

    Reported earnings for the quarter.

    Total volumes (Pipelines and Facilities)
    3.6 million1% increase over same period in prior year
    Q2 FY25

    Total volumes across Pipeline and Facilities divisions.

    Capital investment program
    $1.3 billion$200 million increase compared to prior outlook
    FY25

    Revised outlook for the company's 2025 capital investment program, including capital expenditures and contributions to equity accounted investees.

    Target leverage
    3.5x to 4x
    Long-term

    Target leverage ratio for the company, with an official range up to 4.25% to capture situations like Cedar LNG build.

    Marketing plan tracking
    Substantially on plan
    Current

    NGL marketing plan tracking very close to budget despite volatility.

    Hedge book status
    Relatively modestly hedged
    2026

    Dynamic hedging strategy for 2026, opting to defer hedging due to market outlook.

    Fee-based EBITDA per share growth
    4% to 6%
    Through 2026

    Reiterated guidance for fee-based EBITDA per share growth.

    Industry KPIs

    7
    MetricValueDetails
    Pipeline throughput storage3.6 millionboe/d
    Realized price differentialLower
    Sanctioned expansion backlog$1.3 billionUSD
    Basin level production volumeLow to mid-single-digit%
    Cost of supply unit cash cost15% to 20% lower%
    FCF shareholder distributionsModest amount
    Take or pay contract structure7.5 yearsyears

    Orderbook & backlog

    4
    Cedar LNG Project capacity remarketing1.5 million tonnes per annumQ2 FY25

    Expected to finalize efforts by the end of 2025. Open to selling the entire capacity.

    Propane export capacity50,000 barrels per dayQ2 FY25

    Access through Prince Rupert Terminal and commercial agreement with AltaGas.

    Ethane supply agreement capacity (Dow Chemicals Canada)50,000 barrels per dayQ2 FY25

    Mutually binding agreement for ethane supply.

    Greenlight Electricity Centre capacityUp to 1,800 megawattsQ2 FY25

    Gas-fired combined cycle power generation facility.

    Deals & partnerships

    5
    AltaGasCommercial agreement for LPG export capacity

    Agreement for 30,000 barrels per day of LPG export capacity at current RIPET and future REEF facilities.

    WhitecapAcquisition of remaining interest in gas plants and pipeline

    PGI acquired the remaining 8.3% interest in 3 gas plants and the sales gas pipeline from PGI's Duvernay Complex. Concurrently, Whitecap entered into a long-term take-or-pay commitment for firm service at the Duvernay Complex and extended long-term take-or-pay agreements at PGI's KA plant.

    Montney producerAgreement to fund and acquire under-construction battery and infrastructureLong-term

    PGI entered into an agreement to fund and acquire an under-construction battery and additional infrastructure in the Wapiti/North Gold Creek Montney area. The project enhances PGI's footprint and is highly contracted under a long-term take-or-pay agreement.

    Dow Chemicals CanadaEthane supply agreement

    Mutually binding 50,000 barrel per day ethane supply agreement.

    KineticorJoint venture for Greenlight Electricity Centre

    Partnership developing an up to 1,800-megawatt gas-fired combined cycle power generation facility, in active discussions with a data centre customer.

    Capital programs

    7
    Cedar LNG Projectunderway

    Benefit: 1.5 million tonnes per annum

    Project remains on budget and on time. Steel cutting for topside facilities and vessel hull commenced. Onshore activities continuing.

    RFS IV projectunderwayApproximately $500 million

    Benefit: Expansion capacity 15% to 20% lower cost per barrel than competing projects

    Project trending approximately 5% under previous cost estimate.

    Prince Rupert Terminal optimizationapproved

    Benefit: Expand access to additional global markets with higher realized propane prices, significantly reducing shipping cost per unit

    Optimization through increased storage capacity to allow use of Medium Gas Carrier Vessels.

    Taylor-to-Gordondale Projectpending FID

    Benefit: New pipeline connecting mostly condensate volumes from Taylor, British Columbia to Gordondale area

    Final investment decision expected first quarter of 2026.

    Fox Creek-to-Namao Expansionpending FID

    Benefit: Add approximately 70,000 barrels per day of propane plus capacity to market delivery points from Fox Creek, Alberta to Namao, Alberta

    Proposed expansion of Peace Pipeline system through addition of new pump stations. Final investment decision expected by end of 2025.

    RFS III de-ethanization towerpending FID

    Benefit: Meet commitment under 50,000 barrel per day ethane supply agreement with Dow Chemicals Canada

    Engineering and commercial discussions ongoing. Final investment decision anticipated by end of 2025.

    Greenlight Electricity Centreunderway

    Benefit: Up to 1,800-megawatt gas-fired combined cycle power generation facility

    Partnership with Kineticor. Successfully advanced through Phase 1 of Alberta Electric System Operator allocation process and secured sufficient megawatt allocation. Active discussions with a data centre customer.

    Risks & headwinds

    18
    Lower firm tolls on Cochin PipelineQ2 FY25

    Lower

    Mitigation: Recontracting in July 2024

    Lower revenue at Edmonton TerminalsQ2 FY25

    Lower

    Mitigation: Decommissioning of Edmonton South Rail Terminal in Q2 2024

    Lower interruptible volumes and tolls on Vantage PipelineQ2 FY25

    Lower

    Lower volumes due to planned outages at PGI assetsQ2 FY25

    Lower volumes

    Ongoing third-party egress restrictions impacting Dawson assetsQ2 FY25

    Lower volumes

    Mitigation: Expected higher contribution from PGI in H2 2025 as restrictions ease and LNG Canada starts up

    Decrease in NGL marginsQ2 FY25

    Lower net revenue

    Mitigation: Lower realized losses on NGL-based derivatives partially offset impact

    Lower volumes in Marketing & New VenturesQ2 FY25

    Lower net revenue

    Mitigation: Due to third-party restrictions at Channahon Facility and planned outages at Channahon and Redwater Complex

    Higher input natural gas prices at Aux SableQ2 FY25

    Higher costs

    Lower realized gains on crude oil-based derivativesQ2 FY25

    Lower net revenue

    Costs associated with asset retirement at Redwater ComplexQ2 FY25

    Impacted earnings

    Higher depreciation expense at PGIQ2 FY25

    Lower share of profit

    Mitigation: Due to larger asset base following recent transaction with Whitecap

    Lower other incomeQ2 FY25

    Lower

    Mitigation: No similar gain to that recognized in Q2 2024 related to financial assurances assumed by Cedar LNG

    Increased competition in midstream sectorOngoing

    Qualitative

    Mitigation: Leveraging integrated value chain, competitive service offering, and unparalleled track record

    Impact of Alliance settlement agreement with shippersQ4 FY25

    Offset positive seasonality

    Integrity and geotechnical costs on pipeline assetsQ3 and Q4 FY25

    Significant portion

    Commodity price volatilityOngoing

    Qualitative

    Mitigation: Resilience of producer customers, diversified portfolio

    Regulatory and political environment for greenfield projectsLong-term

    Qualitative

    Mitigation: Positive engagement with government, but complexity and time required to work through system

    Emissions cap and tanker ban for oil pipelinesLong-term

    Huge impediment

    Mitigation: Needs to be worked through for new oil pipeline development

    What to watch in Q3 FY25

    5

    Cedar LNG capacity remarketing

    By year-end 2025
    CurrentProgressing, exchanging agreements
    TargetFinalize definitive agreements

    Why it matters

    Securing long-term contracts for Cedar LNG capacity is crucial for project economics and future revenue stability.

    Pembina continues to progress remarketing of its 1.5 million tonnes per annum of Cedar LNG Project capacity to third parties and expects to finalize these efforts by the end of 2025.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    How does Pembina respond to the narrative that its incumbency in the Canadian NGL value chain is being challenged, and what is its unique value proposition?

    Scott Burrows dismissed the 'death by a thousand cuts' narrative as temporary noise, emphasizing the rock-solid fundamentals of Pembina's business driven by customer demand and WCSB growth. He highlighted Pembina's integrated franchise, involvement in all basin catalysts (LNG, LPG exports, condensate, gas egress, petrochemicals), and unparalleled track record in NGL midstream. He stated that Pembina benefits from visible catalysts like LNG exports, new demand from data centers, and a more supportive policy environment.

    To me, there's a difference between fundamentals and temporary noise. And when you have kind of the extensive franchise that we have in maybe midstream space, I'd say the bar is very high, and there's always going to be something to pick at.

    asked by Aaron MacNeil · answered by J. Burrows

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Project Execution and Capital Efficiency

    Pembina continues to demonstrate strong project execution, with the Cedar LNG Project progressing on budget and on time for a late 2028 in-service date, marked by recent steel cutting. The RFS IV project is also advancing ahead of schedule, trending approximately 5% under its previous cost estimate, with a revised total cost of approximately $500 million. This efficiency allows Pembina to deliver expansion capacity at 15% to 20% lower cost per barrel than competing projects.

    02

    WCSB Growth and Integrated Value Chain

    The company maintains a positive outlook for low to mid-single-digit annual volume growth in the WCSB through the end of the decade, supported by strong Montney economics, oil sands operations, and new egress projects. Pembina highlights its differentiated position as the only Canadian energy infrastructure company with an integrated value chain across all commodities, providing a full suite of midstream and transportation services. This unique positioning allows it to capture incremental volumes and unlock new growth avenues.

    03

    Propane Export and Prince Rupert Terminal Optimization

    Pembina is strengthening its propane export capabilities, gaining access to 50,000 barrels per day of competitive export capacity through its Prince Rupert Terminal and a new commercial agreement with AltaGas. An optimization of the Prince Rupert Terminal, including increased storage capacity, will enable the use of Medium Gas Carrier Vessels, expanding access to global markets and improving netbacks by reducing shipping costs per unit.

    04

    PGI Strategic Acquisitions and Take-or-Pay Commitments

    PGI, Pembina's joint venture, continues to strengthen relationships with WCSB producers through mutually beneficial solutions. PGI recently acquired the remaining 8.3% interest in three gas plants and a sales gas pipeline from Whitecap, securing long-term take-or-pay commitments. Additionally, PGI is funding and acquiring new infrastructure in the Wapiti/North Gold Creek Montney area, underpinned by a long-term take-or-pay agreement, enhancing its footprint in the region.

    05

    Conventional Pipeline Expansions and Contract Stability

    Pembina is advancing over $1 billion in conventional NGL and condensate pipeline expansions, including the Taylor-to-Gordondale Project and the Fox Creek-to-Namao Expansion, to meet rising transportation demand. These projects are secured by long-term take-or-pay contracts and areas of dedication. The weighted average contract life on approximately 1 million barrels of firm contracted volumes on Peace and Northern pipelines has remained consistent at 7.5 years, reflecting successful contract extensions and new agreements.

    06

    Greenlight Electricity Centre and Data Center Opportunity

    Pembina is advancing opportunities to support an emerging Alberta-based data center through its Greenlight Electricity Centre partnership with Kineticor. The project, an up to 1,800-megawatt gas-fired power generation facility, has secured sufficient megawatt allocation and is in active discussions with a data center customer. This initiative leverages Pembina's existing value chain, including potential Alliance Pipeline expansion for natural gas supply, to support long-term contracted power infrastructure.

    07

    Capital Allocation Philosophy

    Management reiterated its consistent approach to capital allocation, balancing growth capital with shareholder returns. While the capital program for 2025 and 2026 is largely committed to advancing FID projects and pipeline expansions, the company continuously evaluates buybacks against growth opportunities. The focus remains on projects that enhance the franchise and service offerings, with a strong financial position and target leverage of 3.5x to 4x net debt-to-EBITDA.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.