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    SNDK
    Earnings call· Jun 2026(Q4 FY26)

    Sandisk Q4 FY26 earnings call SNDK

    Aug 5, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Sandisk Q4 FY26 — Record Revenue, Margin, and EPS Driven by AI Demand and NBMs

    Sandisk delivered a record-setting quarter, driven by robust AI-fueled demand and the successful expansion of its New Business Models (NBMs), which provide significant long-term revenue visibility. The company is strategically positioning itself for the 'Era of Inference' with technology leadership and a strong capital allocation framework, aiming for durable growth and shareholder returns. Management expressed high confidence in the long-term strategic partnerships and the cash-generating capabilities of the business.

    Highlights

    5
    • Record revenue of $8,965 million, above guidance of $7,750M-$8,250M.

    • Non-GAAP gross margin of 84.6%, exceeding guidance of 79%-81%.

    • Non-GAAP EPS of $39.25, above guidance of $30-$33.

    • Repurchased $4.5 billion of company stock in the quarter.

    • Signed 5 additional New Business Models (NBMs), bringing total to 8 customers with a weighted average duration of over 4 years.

    Concerns

    2
    • Consumer revenue declined 32% sequentially to $556 million.

    • PCs and smartphones are working through a period of adjustment, with units down mid-teens for both in CY26.

    Guidance & targets

    11
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Q1 FY27 Revenue
    $10.3B-$10.8B
    high materiality
    High
    Q1 FY27 Non-GAAP Gross Margin
    83%-85%
    high materiality
    High
    Q1 FY27 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses
    $520M-$540M
    medium materiality
    High
    Q1 FY27 Non-GAAP EPS
    $44-$46
    high materiality
    High
    NAND Market Revenue
    Exceed $300B
    high materiality
    High
    NAND Market Revenue
    Approach $500B
    high materiality
    High
    Datacenter Share of Total TAM
    Approximately 50%
    high materiality
    High
    Bits on Allocation
    Beyond CY27
    high materiality
    High
    Capital Spending as % of Revenue
    Approximately 6%
    medium materiality
    High
    Sellable Bits Growth
    Mid-teens
    medium materiality
    High
    Share Repurchase Program
    $14B additional authorization
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Datacenter
    Revenue for Q4 FY26, up 103% sequentially. For the full fiscal year 2026, Datacenter revenue reached $5,153 million, up 437% year-over-year. Represented 38% of total bits exiting FY26, up from 12% a year ago.
    $2,977M103%
    Edge
    Revenue for Q4 FY26, up 48% sequentially. For the full fiscal year 2026, Edge revenue reached $12,160 million, up 195% year-over-year.
    $5,432M48%
    Consumer
    Revenue for Q4 FY26, down 32% sequentially. For the full fiscal year 2026, Consumer revenue was $2,935 million, up 29% year-over-year. Management noted this segment is adjusting to market conditions and pricing.
    $556M-32%

    Operational metrics

    24
    Non-GAAP gross margin
    84.6%Up from 78.4% QoQ, up from 26.4% YoY
    Q4 FY26

    Exceeded guidance of 79% to 81%.

    Non-GAAP operating expenses
    $484MDown from 7.5% of revenue QoQ
    Q4 FY26

    Favorable compared to guidance range of $480 million to $500 million. R&D represents close to 65% of operating expenses.

    Non-GAAP operating margin
    79.2%Up from 70.9% QoQ
    Q4 FY26
    Non-GAAP EPS
    $39.25Up from $23.41 QoQ, up from $0.29 YoY
    Q4 FY26

    Favorable compared to guidance range of $30 to $33.

    Diluted shares outstanding
    157M
    Q4 FY26

    At quarter end.

    Gain from investment in Nanya
    $807M
    Q4 FY26

    Key GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation item.

    Stock-based compensation expense
    $67M
    Q4 FY26

    Key GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation item.

    Tax benefit from divested employee equity
    $175M
    Q4 FY26

    Offset by $170M of taxes recognized on the gain from Nanya.

    Net cash capital spending
    $153M
    Q4 FY26

    Partially offset cash flow from operations.

    Gross capital expenditures
    $562M
    Q4 FY26
    Cash and cash equivalents balance
    $4,762M
    Q4 FY26

    At quarter end.

    NBM financial guarantees
    $16.5B
    Q4 FY26

    Total from all NBMs, through cash deposits and financial instruments, mostly held by third-party financial institutions. Released towards the end of the agreement.

    Sequential revenue growth (volume)
    1/3
    Q4 FY26

    Approximately one-third of sequential revenue growth came from higher volumes.

    Sequential revenue growth (pricing)
    2/3
    Q4 FY26

    Approximately two-thirds of sequential revenue growth came from higher pricing.

    Full-year bits growth
    Mid-teens
    FY26

    In line with plan.

    NBMs as % of bits
    >50%
    FY27

    Expected to represent more than 50% of bits in fiscal year 2027.

    NBMs as % of bits
    ~2/3
    FY28

    Expected to represent approximately two-thirds of bits in fiscal year 2028.

    NBM weighted average duration
    Over 4 years
    Current

    Length of NBMs varies, extending up to 5 years.

    Datacenter share of portfolio
    38%Up from 12% a year ago
    Exiting FY26

    Fastest-growing end market.

    PCs units
    Down mid-teensYoY
    CY26

    Expected to return to growth in CY27.

    Smartphones units
    Down mid-teensYoY
    CY26

    Expected to return to growth in CY27.

    Smartphones average capacity
    Up significantly, mid-teensYoY
    CY26

    Despite unit decline, higher storage content in AI-enabled devices.

    PCs average capacity
    FlatYoY
    CY26
    Inventory days
    HigherConsistent with current levels
    FY27

    To support NBMs and account for higher component costs.

    Industry KPIs

    10
    MetricValueDetails
    Capital return FCF$4.5BUSD
    Unit shipments ASP1/3 volume, 2/3 pricingfraction
    Gross margin drivers84.6%%
    Exabyte bit shipmentsMid-teens%
    Long term supply agreements8 NBMscount
    Component supply constraintsBits on allocation
    Installed base refresh runwayPCs and smartphones adjusting
    Capacity roadmap qualificationBiCS 8 ramped, BiCS 10 announced
    Ai server orders revenue backlog$2,977MUSD
    Revenue mix by end market segmentDatacenter: $2,977M; Edge: $5,432M; Consumer: $556MUSD

    Orderbook & backlog

    3
    Total expected revenue from NBMs (minimum)$93.9BQ4 FY26

    Assumes floor pricing. Actual revenue expected to be above this minimum.

    Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO)$59.8BQ4 FY26

    At the end of the quarter.

    Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) including post-quarter NBMs$91.1BPost Q4 FY26

    Includes 2 NBMs signed after the quarter closed.

    Product announcements

    4
    ProductTypeDetails
    BiCS 8milestone
    QLC Stargate platformlaunch
    BiCS 10roadmap
    High-bandwidth flash (HBF)roadmap

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Multiple (8 diverse Datacenter and Edge customers)New Business Models (NBMs) for long-term supply of NAND products.Minimum $93.9BUp to 5 years, weighted average over 4 years

    Signed 5 additional NBMs (3 new customers, 2 expansions) since April earnings call, bringing total to 8. Pricing includes fixed and variable elements with floors and ceilings, expecting attractive margins even at floor pricing. Financial guarantees protect against purchase obligation failures.

    Capital programs

    1
    BiCS 8 and BiCS 10 rampunderway

    Benefit: Mid- to high teens bit growth from productivity of technology roadmap

    Capital spending will increase year-over-year primarily as we ramp BiCS 8 and BiCS 10, yet our investment relative to revenue will come down to approximately 6% for the full year FY27.

    Risks & headwinds

    2
    PCs and smartphones market adjustmentCalendar Year 2026

    Units down mid-teens for both smartphones and PCs in CY26.

    Mitigation: Expect these markets to return to growth in CY27, driven by AI-enabled devices and higher storage content. Sandisk's technology leadership positions it well for evolving platforms and future refresh cycles.

    Consumer revenue declineQ4 FY26

    Down 32% QoQ to $556 million.

    Mitigation: Management acknowledges the consumer market moves slower and is seeking the right equilibrium point for pricing and product shipments. Committed to driving this business and happy with market share.

    What to watch in Q1 FY27

    5

    NBMs as % of bits

    FY27
    Target>50% for FY27

    Why it matters

    This metric indicates the increasing predictability and long-term visibility of Sandisk's revenue streams, crucial for investment thesis durability.

    We expect our NBMs to represent more than 50% of our bits in fiscal year 2027, and approximately 2/3 of our bits in fiscal year 2028.

    Q&A highlights

    5

    Are NBM margins still around 80% as previously guided, and should investors expect buybacks of approximately $5 billion per quarter, representing 10% of market cap annually?

    Management confirmed NBMs are expected to be around 80% gross margin, with potential upside. They expressed confidence in consistent execution of the buyback program, noting the $4.5 billion executed in Q4 from a $6 billion authorization, and the new $14 billion authorization.

    Ben, we -- not to pick a specific number, but we do expect to be around 80% for the new business models. As you know, there is some upside as prices continue to go up, we'll capture some of that upside as well.

    asked by Benjamin Reitzes · answered by Luis Visoso

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    New Business Models (NBMs) Driving Visibility and Strategic Partnerships

    Sandisk has significantly expanded its NBMs, signing 5 additional agreements, including 3 with new customers and 2 expansions of prior deals. This brings the total to 8 NBMs with diverse Datacenter and Edge customers, reflecting strong conviction in long-term demand. These agreements have a weighted average duration of over 4 years and are expected to represent over 50% of bits in FY27 and approximately two-thirds in FY28, providing unprecedented🌐 visibility into future demand and economics. The total expected revenue from signed NBMs is a minimum of $93.9 billion, assuming floor pricing.

    02

    AI and Inference Era Reshaping NAND Demand

    The 'Era of Inference' is identified as the most important market force, fundamentally reshaping NAND demand. AI interactions generate data requiring storage, retrieval, and low-latency serving, driving demand for high-capacity enterprise SSDs. NAND is seen as a critical component of the AI architecture, with demand anchored in long-term infrastructure investments by major technology companies. This shift is driving deeper partnerships and clearer demand visibility for Sandisk.

    03

    Technology Leadership in BiCS and High-Bandwidth Flash

    Sandisk maintains technology leadership with BiCS, recognized as an industry gold standard. The company ramped BiCS 8 to the majority of its bit production, delivering industry-leading performance, density, and power efficiency across TLC and QLC. The QLC Stargate platform for high-capacity AI data lakes began shipping for revenue. The roadmap includes future BiCS generations extending performance and cost leadership, and the company is also investing in emerging technologies like high-bandwidth flash (HBF) for AI memory storage hierarchy.

    04

    Datacenter as a Major Growth Pillar

    Datacenter has emerged as a major pillar of growth, increasing its share from roughly 12% of bits a year ago to 38% exiting FY26, making it the fastest-growing end market. The company expects Datacenter's share of the total addressable market (TAM) to expand from approximately 30% in CY25 to 50% in CY26 and continue outpacing the market in 2027. This growth is driven by hyperscale and AI infrastructure customers adopting Sandisk's compute-focused TLC enterprise SSDs and QLC Stargate platform.

    05

    Robust Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns

    Sandisk is committed to returning cash to shareholders, having repurchased $4.5 billion of stock in Q4 FY26. The Board authorized an additional $14 billion share repurchase program, bringing the total remaining authorization to $15.5 billion. The company prioritizes investing in the business for long-term growth, followed by maintaining a strong cash balance, and then returning capital to shareholders primarily through share buybacks, which are considered more tax-efficient.

    06

    End-to-End Integration and Operational Excellence

    Sandisk manages the entire value chain from NAND die design through wafer manufacturing with its JV partner, system-level design, and back-end assembly and test. This end-to-end integration, combined with R&D depth and proprietary BiCS systems expertise, enables attractive returns. The company grows supply primarily through nodal transitions rather than wafer additions, delivering mid- to high teens bit growth from technology roadmap productivity with declining capital intensity as a percentage of revenue.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.