StoneCo (STNE) Q2 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Can you provide color on the BRL 200M nonrecurring allowance for expected losses on issuers in distress? Also, with government-backed loans reaching BRL 300M, what are the expectations going forward and how does this impact credit book guidance?

The BRL 200M provision is for a liquidated credit card issuer, made out of accounting prudence after 90+ days without collection. Management expects card networks to settle these amounts, citing Central Bank legislation and historical precedent. Government-backed loans do not change the overall credit book guidance for cost of risk to trend down to mid- to high teens by year-end, though short-term fluctuations may occur.

“We understand it is the responsibility of the network to ultimately settle these amounts, as Mateus just mentioned, as it's very clear on the Central Bank legislation, who bears the responsibility for the risk management. This is not the first time that an issuer goes bankrupt in Brazil. And historically, we have always collected 100% of these accounts receivables from the networks, precisely because of that chain of responsibility and trust that Mateus just mentioned, which is what creates value to the overall system.”

asked by Eric Ito · answered by Diego Salgado

How can StoneCo deliver the low end of its FY26 gross profit guidance, given the current revenue trajectory, lower take rates from PIX, and headwinds from cash position? Is COGS where the upside will come from?

Gross profit was flattish in H1 due to provision costs. H2 growth is expected from accelerating TPV (credit card and PIX), churn initiatives, and improved credit portfolio risk. The guidance already factored in a 12.5% Selic, but current rates are 14%, creating a BRL 300M+ headwind. The focus is on the lower end of guidance due to macro, not COGS or cash balance.

“That said, when we set our guidance for the year, we assumed that the Selic would end 2026 at 12.5%. And today, that number is probably closer to 14%, maybe 0.25 point below that depending on what happens on the next Central Bank meeting. And as we have disclosed already, every 100 basis points on Selic carries a pretax impact of roughly BRL 200 million to BRL 250 million. So rates alone are a headwind north of BRL 300 million for 2026.”

asked by Daniel Vaz · answered by Diego Salgado

Can you provide more detail on the large delinquency cases in the dedicated credit desk? What happened, and how are you addressing this going forward, specifically regarding loan size and client selection?

Delinquency in the dedicated desk was concentrated among larger ticket exposures, exacerbated by record judicial recuperations. StoneCo is addressing this by shifting originations towards government-backed credit lines for clients without long-standing relationships and minimizing maximum ticket sizes on the dedicated desk to reduce single-client exposure and volatility. These issues are mostly macro-related, not fraud.

“But whenever we try to disburse to higher clients, I think we were a little bit exposed to the record judicial recuperations that we're having in the country as well, and that's part of the problem. In terms of how we are addressing that, I would say we're doing 2 main things. The first one is that we're shifting originations towards the government-backed credit lines. particularly for clients where we do not have a long-standing relationship or sufficient historical data prior to the disbursement. And the second thing, we are minimizing the amount of maximum tickets on the dedicated desk so that we don't have exposure to any single clients that can hurt the portfolio or create volatility going forward.”

asked by Antonio Gregorin Ruette · answered by Mateus Schwening

Why is it harder to gain back SMB clients compared to micro merchants, and when can we expect to see improvements? Also, should we expect continued pressure on take rates due to PIX volumes and churn reduction initiatives?

SMB retention is more complex due to diverse offerings and channels, requiring extensive testing and calibration, making improvements more gradual than for micro merchants. While take rates in payments are falling due to PIX mix and some price moves, StoneCo manages client relationships holistically, bundling payments and credit to achieve healthy overall economics, rather than looking at product-specific take rates.

“That said, we've been saying for quite some time now that looking at take rates by product tells less of the story as we price the clients' relationship and not the product on a stand-alone basis. It's not uncommon already to have clients with very small take rates in payments, which we would typically reprice in other times of the company, but that today, we bundle with credit and payments, bringing economics to very healthy levels.”

asked by Neha Agarwala · answered by Diego Salgado

Can you explain the risk waterfall of government programs, specifically how much the government guarantees (e.g., PEAC)? How are provisions handled for these programs, given the government guarantee and potential timing mismatch between default and reimbursement?

For programs like PEAC, the government guarantees roughly 75% of the defaulted amount, reducing the loss given default to about 25%. This allows for less upfront provisioning. When a credit defaults, the coverage for Stage 2 and short-term NPLs drops significantly because StoneCo has the right to collect the guarantee from the government on the 91st day after default, though it doesn't affect Stage 3 or over 90-day credits as much.

“But on average, especially on PEAC, the government guarantees roughly 75% of the defaulted amount. So the loss given default for a credit under PEAC. On average, it's about 25%, which is materially lower than what we have in our overall portfolio. That's the reason why we have to provision less upfront when underwriting that credit.”

asked by Guilherme Grespan · answered by Diego Salgado