Skip to content
    STX
    Earnings call· Jun 2026(Q4 FY26)

    Seagate Technology Holdings Q4 FY26 earnings call STX

    Jul 28, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Seagate Q4 FY26 — Strong Outperformance Driven by AI-Amplified Demand and HAMR Ramp

    Seagate concluded fiscal 2026 with strong Q4 results, outperforming expectations across revenue and profitability, driven by robust mass capacity storage demand from cloud customers amplified by AI adoption. The company's HAMR-based Mozaic platform ramp and value-based pricing strategy are underpinning sequential revenue and margin expansion expected through fiscal 2027, supported by deep customer commitments extending into 2028 and beyond.

    Highlights

    5
    • Q4 revenue of $3.6 billion, up 17% sequentially and 48% year-over-year, exceeding the high end of guidance.

    • Non-GAAP gross margin expanded for the 13th consecutive quarter to 52.7%, up 570 basis points sequentially.

    • Record free cash flow of $1.1 billion, representing a 31% margin, the strongest quarter in over a decade.

    • Non-GAAP EPS of $5.71, up 39% quarter-over-quarter and 121% year-over-year, exceeding guidance by a wide margin.

    • Net leverage ratio improved to 0.4x based on adjusted EBITDA of $1.7 billion.

    Guidance & targets

    12
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Fiscal Year 2027 Revenue Growth
    outpace fiscal 2026 performance
    high materiality
    High
    Fiscal Year 2027 Margin and Cash Generation
    sequential growth throughout the year
    high materiality
    High
    September Quarter Revenue
    $4.1 billion, plus or minus $100 million
    high materiality
    High
    September Quarter Non-GAAP Operating Expenses
    approximately $300 million
    medium materiality
    High
    September Quarter Non-GAAP Operating Margin
    around 50%
    high materiality
    High
    September Quarter Non-GAAP EPS
    $7.30 plus or minus $0.20
    high materiality
    High
    September Quarter Tax Rate
    about 16%
    low materiality
    High
    September Quarter Non-GAAP Diluted Share Count
    231 million shares
    low materiality
    High
    Fiscal Year 2027 Capital Expenditures
    remain well within our target range of 4% to 6% of revenue
    medium materiality
    High
    Nearline Exabyte Growth
    mid-20% range
    high materiality
    Medium
    Mozaic 4 HAMR Exabyte Ramp Milestone
    50% of our HAMR exabytes on our Mozaic 4 platform
    medium materiality
    High
    Mozaic 5 Qualification Shipments
    on track for qualification shipments
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    2
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Data Center
    Global cloud customers are driving the vast majority of data center revenue and exabyte demand. Demand trends in the enterprise OEM data center markets have also strengthened.
    Exabytes shipped: 195 exabytesExabytes shipped YoY growth: 43%Exabytes shipped QoQ growth: 11%Share of total exabyte shipments: 89%
    $2.9 billion57%17%
    Edge IoT
    Growth due in part to ongoing tight supply conditions and increasing NAND pricing.
    Share of total revenue: 19%
    $697 million20%14%

    Operational metrics

    24
    Non-GAAP Gross Margin
    52.7%up 570 basis points sequentially
    Q4 FY26

    Expanded for 13th consecutive quarter. Reflects continued execution of pricing strategy and stronger product mix.

    Non-GAAP Operating Margin
    44.6%increased 710 basis points sequentially
    Q4 FY26

    Underscores the scalability of the financial model, continued areal density innovation, supply discipline, and pricing strategy execution.

    Non-GAAP EPS
    $5.71up 39% quarter-over-quarter and 121% year-over-year
    Q4 FY26

    Exceeded the high end of guidance by a wide margin.

    Free Cash Flow Margin
    31%
    Q4 FY26

    Derived from $1.1 billion FCF.

    Capital Expenditures
    $187 million
    Q4 FY26

    Part of total FY26 CapEx of 4.7% of revenue.

    Capital Expenditures as % of Revenue
    4.7%
    FY26

    Total CapEx for fiscal 2026.

    Cash and investments balance
    $1.7 billion
    Q4 FY26

    Cash and cash equivalents at end of fiscal 2026.

    Liquidity
    $3 billion
    Q4 FY26

    Includes undrawn revolving credit facility.

    Gross Debt Balance
    $3.6 billiondown $1.4 billion year-over-year
    Q4 FY26

    Exiting fiscal '26, includes $300 million retired in Q4 FY26.

    Net Leverage Ratio
    0.4ximproved
    Q4 FY26

    Based on adjusted EBITDA of $1.7 billion for Q4 FY26.

    Adjusted EBITDA
    $1.7 billionup 37% quarter-over-quarter and 142% year-over-year
    Q4 FY26

    Used in net leverage ratio calculation.

    Non-GAAP Operating Expenses
    $293 million
    Q4 FY26

    Reflects discipline in cost management.

    Non-GAAP Net Income
    $1.3 billion
    Q4 FY26

    Corresponding to non-GAAP EPS of $5.71.

    Tax Expense
    $242 million
    Q4 FY26

    Used in non-GAAP EPS calculation.

    Diluted Share Count
    231 million shares
    Q4 FY26

    Includes net impact of 2028 convertible notes.

    Shareholder Returns
    $283 million
    Q4 FY26

    Amount returned to shareholders during the June quarter.

    HAMR-based products as % of nearline exabyte shipment run rate
    40%
    exiting FY26

    Achieved milestone on schedule.

    Mozaic 4 ramp milestone
    50%
    exiting calendar '26

    Next ramp milestone for Mozaic 4 platform.

    Enterprise nearline revenue
    increasedfor a fifth consecutive quarter
    Q4 FY26

    Reflects broadening demand beyond large cloud data centers.

    Non-GAAP Gross Profit
    $1.9 billionup 31% quarter-over-quarter and more than doubling year-over-year
    Q4 FY26

    Significant increase.

    Non-GAAP Operating Profit
    $1.6 billionincreased 39% sequentially
    Q4 FY26

    Representing 44.6% of revenue.

    Other Income and Expenses
    $58 million
    Q4 FY26

    Expected to decrease to approximately $45 million in Q1 FY27.

    Debt Retired
    $1 billion
    July 2026

    Extinguished in July, part of the $1.2 billion debt reduction target for Q1 FY27.

    Debt to be Retired
    $1.2 billion
    September 2026

    Planned for September, part of the total debt reduction for Q1 FY27.

    Industry KPIs

    10
    MetricValueDetails
    Capital return FCF$1.1 billionUSD
    Unit shipments ASP
    Gross margin drivers52.7%%
    Exabyte bit shipments218exabytes
    Long term supply agreements
    Component supply constraints
    Capacity roadmap qualification
    Ai server orders revenue backlog
    Revenue mix by end market segment$2.9 billionUSD
    Revenue per terabyte cost per exabyte

    Orderbook & backlog

    3
    Nearline exabytes allocatedvast majorityQ4 FY26

    Allocated into calendar 2028 based on long-term supply agreements.

    Customer planning horizonsthrough 2029 and beyondQ4 FY26

    seeking to extend

    Customers are actively seeking to extend planning horizons, reflecting growing confidence in their long-term infrastructure needs.

    Contract coverageentirety of calendar 2027Q4 FY26

    Contracts define product configuration and pricing terms for orders secured prior to initiating drive production.

    Product announcements

    1
    ProductTypeDetails
    Mozaic 5roadmap

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    SK hynixWhite paper collaboration illustrating the importance of tiered storage for AI workloads.

    Our recent white paper with SK hynix illustrates the importance of tiered storage for inference and agentic AI workloads, showing a direct benefit to hard drive storage.

    What to watch in Q1 FY27

    5

    September Quarter Revenue

    Q1 FY27 (September quarter)
    Current$3.6 billion (Q4 FY26)
    Target$4.1 billion +/- $100 million

    Why it matters

    Verifies continued strong demand and execution of value-based pricing strategy.

    We expect September quarter revenue to be in the range of $4.1 billion, plus or minus $100 million, which represents a 56% year-over-year improvement at the midpoint.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Is the implied mid-57% gross margin for Q1 FY27 correct, and is mid-teens cost down per terabyte sustainable with Mozaic 3 to 4 transition?

    Gianluca confirmed strong gross margin improvement and continued pricing strategy. Dave noted that the Mozaic 3 to 4 transition boosts profitability and allows for better cost execution than planned, despite factory complexities.

    our pricing strategy is continuing as we have discussed now for several quarters. I would say we have adopted this strategy more than 12, 13 quarters ago. So we are continuing in that direction.

    asked by Aaron Rakers · answered by Gianluca Romano

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    AI-Driven Demand for Mass Capacity Storage

    Demand for mass capacity storage is robust and growing, significantly amplified by the adoption of AI-enhanced applications. Cloud customers are the primary driver, demonstrating three consecutive years of sequential quarterly exabyte growth with no signs of slowdown. AI is reinforcing data creation, retention, and reuse trends, with specific workloads like KV cache and agentic applications directly benefiting hard drive storage by requiring persistent context and reducing GPU usage, thereby increasing the need for storage.

    02

    Tiered Storage Architectures Broaden Adoption

    Seagate emphasizes the critical role of tiered storage architectures, which combine high-performance memory and SSDs with mass capacity hard drives to optimize performance, energy consumption, and cost at scale. This approach, traditionally used by hyperscalers, is now extending to enterprise deployments, Neocloud operators, and leading model developers. These new adopters are increasingly integrating modern tiered storage, with hard drives serving as the foundational mass capacity layer.

    03

    HAMR Technology and Mozaic Platform Advancements

    The HAMR-based Mozaic platform is central to Seagate's technology roadmap, enabling significant increases in areal density to meet rising exabyte demand efficiently. Mozaic 3 products are fully qualified and deployed across all major cloud customers. The second-generation Mozaic 4 platform, capable of supporting up to 44 terabytes per drive, is actively ramping with the two largest global CSPs, with Mozaic 5 (5+ TB/disk) on track for qualification shipments in late calendar 2027.

    04

    Value-Based Pricing and Long-Term Customer Commitments

    Seagate continues to execute its value-based pricing strategy, leveraging a strengthening demand environment to drive sustainable, profitable growth. The company has secured long-term supply agreements (LTAs) that allocate the vast majority of nearline exabytes into calendar 2028. Customers are actively seeking to extend these planning horizons through 2029 and beyond, reflecting strong confidence in their long-term infrastructure needs and reinforcing demand durability.

    05

    Strong Financial Performance and Strategic Debt Reduction

    Fiscal 2026 concluded with outstanding financial results, including 13 consecutive quarters of non-GAAP gross margin expansion and record free cash flow generation of $3.1 billion for the full year. Seagate is aggressively reducing its debt, having lowered gross debt by $1.4 billion in FY26 to $3.6 billion. An additional $1.2 billion in debt is slated for retirement in Q1 FY27, with $1 billion already extinguished in July, while simultaneously increasing share buybacks.

    06

    Future Growth Drivers: Physical AI and Edge Data

    Beyond current cloud and enterprise applications, Seagate anticipates physical AI applications, such as robotics and autonomous vehicles, will drive the next significant expansion in data creation and retention at the edge. These applications require training on millions of hours of historical and synthetic video content, generating vast amounts of unstructured data that will further elevate the importance of mass capacity storage across modern tiered architectures.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.