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    TEM
    Earnings call· Mar 2026(Q1 FY26)

    Tempus AI Q1 FY26 earnings call TEM

    May 5, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Tempus AI Q1 FY26 — Strong Revenue Growth and Increased Full-Year Guidance

    Tempus AI delivered a strong first quarter, exceeding expectations with robust revenue growth across both diagnostic and data segments, leading to an upward revision of full-year guidance. The company continues to expand its strategic data collaborations with major pharma partners, leveraging its extensive data assets and AI modeling capabilities. While some areas like hereditary testing experienced temporary slowdowns and MRD volume is managed due to reimbursement, management expressed confidence in sustained growth and improving profitability throughout the year.

    Highlights

    5
    • Total revenue grew 36% year-over-year to $348.1 million.

    • Data and Applications revenue increased 40.5% year-over-year to $87 million, driven by 44% growth in data licensing and modeling.

    • Third consecutive quarter of bookings north of $100 million for the data business, with TCV rising.

    • Full-year 2026 revenue guidance increased to $1.5 billion - $1.6 billion, with adjusted EBITDA guidance of $65 million.

    • Signed a very large strategic collaboration with Merck and expanded relationship with Gilead.

    Concerns

    3
    • Hereditary testing business slowed down, though expected to return to mid-teens growth in H2 FY26.

    • Q1 FY26 adjusted EBITDA was negative $3 million, though significant improvement is expected throughout the year.

    • MRD volume expansion is metered due to reimbursement limitations, with 97% of tests being tumor-informed and personal burdening reimbursement.

    Guidance & targets

    7
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2026 Revenue
    $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA
    $65 million
    high materiality
    High
    Hereditary Business Growth Rate
    mid-teens
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Incremental ASP Lift
    $500
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Top-line Growth Rate
    25%
    high materiality
    High
    Revenue
    $2.5 billion to $3 billion
    medium materiality
    Medium
    ASPs
    30% higher
    low materiality
    Low

    Segment performance

    2
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Diagnostics
    Driven by strength in oncology, particularly solid tumor and liquid biopsies. Hereditary business slowed down but expected to return to mid-teens growth in H2 FY26.
    Oncology unit growth: 28%MRD volume: performing even better (qualitative)
    $261.1 million35%
    Data and Applications
    Achieved third straight quarter of bookings north of $100 million, with TCV rising and strong visibility.
    Data licensing and modeling business insights growth: 44%
    $87 million40.5%

    Operational metrics

    13
    Total Revenue
    $348.1 millionup 36% YoY
    Q1 FY26

    Overall company revenue.

    Oncology Unit Growth
    28%
    Q1 FY26

    Growth in oncology business units, including solid tumor and liquid biopsies.

    MRD Test Volume
    6,500up 500% YoY
    Q1 FY26

    Despite high growth, still a relatively small volume.

    Data Business Bookings
    north of $100 millionthird straight quarter
    Q1 FY26

    Indicates strong demand and future revenue visibility.

    Total Contract Value (TCV) for 2026 Revenue
    $350 millionearmark
    FY26

    Amount of TCV related to 2026 revenue at year-end, providing strong visibility.

    Data Business Database Size
    in excess of 500 petabytes
    current

    Large database used for analytics and model-building.

    Average Selling Price (ASP)
    $1720-$1740
    current

    Current ASP for diagnostic tests.

    MRD Tumor-Informed Test Percentage
    97%
    current

    Percentage of MRD tests that are tumor-informed, impacting reimbursement dynamics.

    Hereditary (XG) Growth
    50%YoY
    Q1 FY26

    Growth rate for the XG assay, noted as being from a small base.

    Rare Disease Test ASP
    $3,000
    current

    ASP for rare disease tests, expected to be ASP accretive.

    Algorithm Attach Rate
    40%
    current

    Attach rate for various algorithms built into solid tumor assays.

    Adjusted EBITDA
    -$3 million
    Q1 FY26

    Q1 adjusted EBITDA, expected to improve significantly throughout the year.

    Historical Revenue
    $300 million
    3-4 years ago

    Contextualizes the company's significant growth over recent years.

    Industry KPIs

    4
    MetricValueDetails
    Revenue EPS guidanceRevenue: $1.5B-$1.6B; Adjusted EBITDA: $65MUSD
    Pricing price realization$1720-$1740USD
    Diagnostics testing demand35%%
    Segment organic revenue growthDiagnostics: 35%; Data and Applications: 40.5%%

    Deals & partnerships

    4
    MerckVery large strategic data and modeling collaboration.

    New collaboration, similar in magnitude to existing large strategic agreements.

    GileadExpanded relationship, significant step up from historic levels.

    Represents a substantial increase in engagement, moving towards a more strategic level.

    AstraZenecaCollaboration for building foundation models.

    Leveraging Tempus's data for AI model building.

    unspecifiedBuilding a multimodal model in Alzheimer's disease.multimillion dollar

    Represents a recent win in neurology, diversifying data licensing beyond oncology.

    Risks & headwinds

    3
    Hereditary testing business slowdownQ1 FY26

    slowed down a bit

    Mitigation: Expected to return to mid-teens growth in H2 FY26 due to lapping extreme growth rates and new product entry (RARE).

    MRD reimbursement limitationscurrent

    roughly 97% of our tests are tumor informed

    Mitigation: Metering volume expansion in coordination with partners; aggressive rollout planned as reimbursement improves.

    Elevated cash flow from operations in Q1Q1 FY26

    a little bit elevated in Q1

    Mitigation: Expected significant improvement in Q2 driven by normalization of payables and large insights contracts flipping to quarterly payments.

    What to watch in Q2 FY26

    5

    Hereditary Business Growth Rate

    H2 FY26
    Currentslowed down a bit
    Targetmid-teens

    Why it matters

    Verifying the rebound in this segment is crucial for overall diagnostic revenue growth and meeting full-year expectations.

    We expect that business to return to mid-teens in the second half of the year.

    Q&A highlights

    5

    How are discussions with large pharma trending regarding AI and identified data, and what is the outlook for contract renewals and extensions?

    Eric Lefkofsky stated that core big data relationships are strong, with a history of renewing agreements at or above historical levels. The company is adding new large names like Merck (strategic collaboration) and expanding existing ones like Gilead. He emphasized the growing trend of pharma building models with Tempus's 500+ petabyte database, leveraging GPUs for R&D programs.

    we've now -- we're adding just some really big new names to that prestigious group. This quarter alone, we added Merck, who signed a very large strategic collaboration with us. We expanded our relationship with Gilead.

    asked by Kallum Titchmarsh · answered by Eric Lefkofsky

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Data & Applications Business Momentum

    The Data and Applications segment demonstrated significant strength, growing 40.5% year-over-year to $87 million. This was primarily fueled by a 44% increase in data licensing and modeling business insights. The company achieved its third consecutive quarter of bookings exceeding $100 million, indicating robust demand and strong future visibility for this segment.

    02

    Strategic Pharma Collaborations

    Tempus AI continues to deepen its relationships with major pharmaceutical companies. Notably, a new large strategic data and modeling collaboration was signed with Merck, and the existing relationship with Gilead was significantly expanded. These deals, alongside ongoing collaborations with AstraZeneca, GSK, and BMS, highlight the increasing adoption of Tempus's de-identified data and AI model-building platform by big pharma for R&D programs.

    03

    Diagnostic Segment Performance

    The diagnostic revenue reached $261.1 million, marking a 35% year-over-year increase. This growth was largely driven by strong performance in oncology, with unit growth of 28% across solid tumor and liquid biopsies, and even better performance in MRD volumes. While the hereditary business experienced a temporary slowdown, it is anticipated to rebound to mid-teens growth in the second half of FY26.

    04

    FDA Approvals and ASP Outlook

    The company is actively pursuing further FDA approvals for its main assays. While the XF submission is awaiting feedback with no expected impact on 2026 pricing, an amendment for tumor-only testing on an existing FDA-approved assay is expected imminently. Management anticipates an incremental ASP lift of approximately $500 over the next 1-2 years as more assays achieve FDA approval, building on the current ASP of around $1720-$1740.

    05

    MRD Reimbursement and Growth Strategy

    The Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) assay showed robust growth, albeit from a smaller base. The company is strategically metering the expansion of its MRD sales force due to current reimbursement limitations, as 97% of these tests are tumor-informed, placing the reimbursement burden on personal. As reimbursement improves, Tempus plans to more aggressively roll out its MRD offerings, positioning itself as a formidable player in the US market.

    06

    Algorithm Integration and Physician Adoption

    Tempus highlights a 40% attach rate for its algorithms on solid tumor assays, including tools for homologous recombination deficiency, tumor origin prediction, and immune profiling. These technology-enabled assets are increasingly relied upon by physicians to make data-driven decisions and improve patient care, contributing to the company's differential growth rates compared to competitors.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.