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    XEL
    Earnings call· Jun 2026(Q2 FY26)

    XCEL ENERGY Q2 FY26 earnings call XEL

    Jul 30, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Xcel Energy Q2 FY26 — Strong Earnings and Expanded Investment Outlook

    Xcel Energy delivered robust second-quarter earnings, reaffirming its full-year EPS guidance and extending its long-term growth outlook. The company highlighted significant progress in regulatory proceedings and capital project execution, including securing substantial incremental investment opportunities. Management emphasized a disciplined approach to large load growth, ensuring customer affordability and strong balance sheet management, while also addressing wildfire risks and advancing sustainability goals.

    Highlights

    5
    • Achieved strong Q2 FY26 earnings of $0.93 per share, up from $0.75 in Q2 FY25.

    • Reaffirmed 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04 to $4.16, maintaining a 22-year track record.

    • Secured line of sight to over $10 billion in incremental investment opportunities, including $6 billion from the SPS RFP.

    • Advanced settlements or decisions in 6 active rate cases, keeping long-term bill growth at or below inflation.

    • Secured 85% of the $7 billion equity need for the base 5-year plan, totaling approximately $6 billion.

    Concerns

    4
    • Higher interest expense decreased earnings by $0.12 per share in Q2 FY26.

    • Impacts of common equity financing decreased earnings by $0.06 per share in Q2 FY26.

    • Wildfire conditions in Colorado remain challenging due to low snowpack and drought, requiring increased mitigation efforts.

    • Potential pushback from hyperscalers on large load tariffs, though Xcel believes its provisions are well-constructed.

    Guidance & targets

    6
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Ongoing EPS
    $4.04 to $4.16
    high materiality
    High
    Long-term EPS growth rate
    6% to 8-plus percent
    high materiality
    High
    EPS growth rate
    9-plus percent
    high materiality
    High
    Weather-adjusted electric sales growth
    3%
    medium materiality
    High
    Data center load secured
    at least 1 GW
    medium materiality
    High
    Data center load secured
    an additional 3 GW
    medium materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    16
    Q2 EPS
    $0.93up from $0.75 in Q2 FY25
    Q2 FY26

    Strong earnings for the quarter.

    Electric revenues impact on EPS
    $0.17
    Q2 FY26

    Positive earnings driver.

    AFUDC impact on EPS
    $0.08
    Q2 FY26

    Positive earnings driver.

    Depreciation and amortization impact on EPS
    $0.08
    Q2 FY26

    Positive earnings driver, primarily due to change in nuclear depreciation lives.

    Other items impact on EPS
    $0.03
    Q2 FY26

    Positive earnings driver, largely offsetting negative weather in Q1.

    Interest expense impact on EPS
    $0.12
    Q2 FY26

    Negative earnings driver.

    Common equity financing impact on EPS
    $0.06
    Q2 FY26

    Negative earnings driver, reflecting funding of infrastructure investments.

    Weather-adjusted electric sales growth
    2.1%
    YTD FY26

    Year-to-date sales growth.

    Equity need addressed
    $6B85% of $7B total
    5-year plan

    Amount of base 5-year equity need already secured.

    Carbon emissions reduction
    nearly 60%
    over 2 decades

    Achieved as part of sustainability efforts.

    Water consumption reduction
    more than 35%
    over 2 decades

    Achieved as part of sustainability efforts.

    Wind and solar enabled
    nearly 14,000 MW
    cumulative

    Total capacity enabled on the system.

    AI-enabled cameras installed
    over 50
    last year

    Installed for wildfire situational awareness.

    Weather stations installed
    almost 300
    current

    Installed for wildfire metrology.

    Rate base growth vs. EPS growth delta
    200-250 bps
    long term

    Expected difference between rate base growth and EPS growth.

    Google data center project customer benefits
    over $1B
    project lifetime

    Expected benefits from the Google data center project.

    Industry KPIs

    5
    MetricValueDetails
    Retail sales growth2.1%%
    Regulatory rate base growth11%%
    Rto market structure reviewSPP ITP
    New gas generation builds upgrades200 MWMW
    Contracted large load capacity esas loas1 GWGW

    Orderbook & backlog

    3
    Data centers in operation or under construction1 GWQ2 FY26

    Current status of data center load.

    Data centers under signed ESAs1 GWQ2 FY26

    Data center load with executed agreements.

    High probability data center pipelineexceeds 20 GWQ2 FY26

    Total potential data center load in the pipeline.

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    SPSSelection to provide new company-owned generation following an RFP process$6 billion

    SPS was selected to provide 2,400 megawatts of renewables and 200 megawatts of natural gas-fired generation.

    GoogleData center deal in Minnesota

    Highly renewable project with access to wind, solar, storage, and gas plants. Proceeding filed with the commission, strong stakeholder support.

    Capital programs

    9
    Total 5-year investment planunderway$70+ billion
    Start: November 2025

    Total investment described in the 5-year plan from last November.

    SPS RFP new generation investmentselected$6 billion

    Benefit: 2,400 MW renewables, 200 MW natural gas-fired generation

    Investment resulting from the SPS competitive RFP process, representing 70% of the recommended portfolio.

    Incremental investment planidentified$10+ billion

    Total identified opportunities beyond the base plan, with line of sight.

    Group 2 Colorado Power pathwaycompleted

    Achieved commercial operations during Q2 FY26.

    Upper Midwest 345 kV transmission projectunderway
    Start: Q2 FY26

    Benefit: 150-mile 345 kV transmission line

    Construction began during Q2 FY26.

    Sherco Solar facility Phase 3completed

    Benefit: 70 MW total capacity

    Placed into service during Q2 FY26, making it one of the largest utility-scale solar facilities.

    New renewable generation and battery storage pipelineplanned

    Benefit: nearly 13 GW

    Part of the 5-plus year portfolio for which strategic partnerships are being formed.

    New natural gas generation pipelineplanned

    Benefit: over 3 GW

    Part of the 5-plus year portfolio for which strategic partnerships are being formed.

    New high-voltage transmission line miles pipelineplanned

    Benefit: nearly 2,000 miles

    Part of the 5-plus year portfolio for which strategic partnerships are being formed.

    Risks & headwinds

    3
    Wildfire risk in ColoradoCurrent season

    Low snowpack last winter, continued drought conditions

    Mitigation: Increased EPSS and PSPS activities, installation of AI-enabled cameras and weather stations, system hardening, enhanced customer communication.

    Regulatory intervention for settlementsNext few months

    Not quantified

    Mitigation: Worked hard with parties to reach settlements, hopeful commissions recognize public interest.

    Hyperscaler pushback on large load tariffs

    Not quantified

    Mitigation: Tariffs are designed with strong customer protections and contract provisions, ensuring new load pays its full share; working with stakeholders.

    What to watch in Q3 FY26

    5

    2026 EPS Guidance Tightening

    Q3 FY26
    Current$4.04 to $4.16
    TargetTightened range

    Why it matters

    Management typically tightens guidance in Q3, providing more clarity on full-year earnings expectations.

    Our just regular cadence is we tightened guidance in Q3.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    How do the $6 billion SPS CapEx and broader tailwinds impact the 9%+ EPS growth target, and how does the company view the structural opportunity for generation wins and EPC capabilities?

    Management confirmed the $6 billion SPS investment contributes to over $10 billion in incremental opportunities, some extending into the early 2030s. They reiterated the 9-plus percent EPS growth through 2030, noting a Q3 update will align the new capital and financing plan. They highlighted their regulated generation development team's ability to deliver low-cost projects and the strategic advantage of their service territories for energy-intensive industries due to sustainable and cost-effective energy.

    As I think about -- I said in Q1, we talked about 9% EPS growth through 2030. You heard you picked up on the language you say 9-plus percent EPS growth through 2030.

    asked by Richard Sunderland · answered by Brian Van Abel

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Regulatory Execution and Customer Affordability

    Xcel Energy demonstrated strong regulatory execution, advancing settlements or decisions in 6 active rate cases. These outcomes are designed to keep long-term bill growth at or below the rate of inflation and maintain total energy bills among the lowest in the country. The company also expanded energy assistance programs in Colorado and Minnesota, nearly doubling participation and significantly increasing accessibility and funding for vulnerable customers.

    02

    Capital Delivery and Strategic Partnerships

    The company invested $3 billion in Q2 and over $6 billion year-to-date in critical infrastructure. Xcel Energy emphasizes strategic partnerships with Tier 1 suppliers and EPC vendors, shifting its approach to ensure access to labor and equipment capacity for its 5-plus year portfolio, which includes nearly 13 GW of new renewable generation and battery storage, over 3 GW of new natural gas generation, and nearly 2,000 high-voltage transmission line miles. This approach aims to deliver projects on budget, on time, and on scope.

    03

    SPS RFP Outcome and Incremental Investment Opportunities

    The independent monitor for the SPS RFP filed a report selecting Xcel Energy to provide 2,400 MW of renewables and 200 MW of natural gas-fired generation, representing 70% of the total recommended portfolio and approximately $6 billion of new investment in Texas and New Mexico. This outcome brings the company's line of sight for incremental investment to over $10 billion, with additional opportunities expected from future RFPs in Colorado and the Upper Midwest, and generation to support data center demand.

    04

    Data Center Strategy and Pipeline

    Xcel Energy is confident in its data center forecast, with 1 GW already in operation or under construction and an additional 1 GW under signed ESAs. The company expects to secure another 4 GW of data center load by year-end 2027, including at least 1 GW by the end of 2026. This growth is supported by a high-probability pipeline exceeding 20 GW and a disciplined approach using large load tariffs to protect existing customers and ensure new load pays its full share.

    05

    Wildfire Mitigation Efforts in Colorado

    In response to challenging wildfire conditions, Xcel Energy has implemented a comprehensive mitigation plan in Colorado. This includes installing over 50 AI-enabled cameras and nearly 300 weather stations for improved situational awareness, executing Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) and Enhanced Powerline Safety System (EPSS) activities, and hardening the system through pole inspections and replacements. The company is also working on state legislation and plans to file a new wildfire mitigation plan in early 2027.

    06

    Stance on New Nuclear Energy

    While advocating for nuclear energy at a national level, Xcel Energy stated it will not be an early adopter of new nuclear power plants. The company is confident in its ability to meet growing energy needs with its existing portfolio of wind, solar, storage, and gas-fired backups, given its access to abundant renewable resources. New dispatchable carbon-free technologies, including advanced nuclear, are seen as necessary for mid-century carbon-free goals but are not yet commercially viable for near-term resource plans.

    07

    Large Load Tariffs and Customer Benefits

    Xcel Energy has received approval for its large load tariff in Minnesota and filed similar tariffs in Colorado and Wisconsin. These tariffs are designed to ensure that new large load customers, such as data centers, pay their full and fair share for generation and interconnection costs. This approach protects existing customers by spreading the cost of fixed assets over more units of production, driving economic benefits, and supporting new infrastructure development in the regions.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.