Inve US ▾
XEXEL

Xcel Energy (XEL) Q2 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Jun 2026 (Q2 FY26)· Utilities· Jul 30, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Xcel Energy Q2 FY26 — Strong Earnings and Expanded Investment Outlook

Xcel Energy delivered robust second-quarter earnings, reaffirming its full-year EPS guidance and extending its long-term growth outlook. The company highlighted significant progress in regulatory proceedings and capital project execution, including securing substantial incremental investment opportunities. Management emphasized a disciplined approach to large load growth, ensuring customer affordability and strong balance sheet management, while also addressing wildfire risks and advancing sustainability goals.

Highlights

5
  • Achieved strong Q2 FY26 earnings of $0.93 per share, up from $0.75 in Q2 FY25.

  • Reaffirmed 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04 to $4.16, maintaining a 22-year track record.

  • Secured line of sight to over $10 billion in incremental investment opportunities, including $6 billion from the SPS RFP.

  • Advanced settlements or decisions in 6 active rate cases, keeping long-term bill growth at or below inflation.

  • Secured 85% of the $7 billion equity need for the base 5-year plan, totaling approximately $6 billion.

Concerns

4
  • Higher interest expense decreased earnings by $0.12 per share in Q2 FY26.

  • Impacts of common equity financing decreased earnings by $0.06 per share in Q2 FY26.

  • Wildfire conditions in Colorado remain challenging due to low snowpack and drought, requiring increased mitigation efforts.

  • Potential pushback from hyperscalers on large load tariffs, though Xcel believes its provisions are well-constructed.

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Ongoing EPS
$4.04 to $4.16
high materiality
High
Long-term EPS growth rate
6% to 8-plus percent
high materiality
High
EPS growth rate
9-plus percent
high materiality
High
Weather-adjusted electric sales growth
3%
medium materiality
High
Data center load secured
at least 1 GW
medium materiality
High
Data center load secured
an additional 3 GW
medium materiality
High

Orderbook & backlog

Data centers in operation or under construction 1 GW Q2 FY26

Current status of data center load.

Data centers under signed ESAs 1 GW Q2 FY26

Data center load with executed agreements.

High probability data center pipeline exceeds 20 GW Q2 FY26

Total potential data center load in the pipeline.

Deals & partnerships

SPS Selection to provide new company-owned generation following an RFP process $6 billion

SPS was selected to provide 2,400 megawatts of renewables and 200 megawatts of natural gas-fired generation.

Google Data center deal in Minnesota

Highly renewable project with access to wind, solar, storage, and gas plants. Proceeding filed with the commission, strong stakeholder support.

Capital programs

Total 5-year investment plan underway $70+ billion
Start: November 2025

Total investment described in the 5-year plan from last November.

SPS RFP new generation investment selected $6 billion

Benefit:2,400 MW renewables, 200 MW natural gas-fired generation

Investment resulting from the SPS competitive RFP process, representing 70% of the recommended portfolio.

Incremental investment plan identified $10+ billion

Total identified opportunities beyond the base plan, with line of sight.

Group 2 Colorado Power pathway completed

Achieved commercial operations during Q2 FY26.

Upper Midwest 345 kV transmission project underway
Start: Q2 FY26

Benefit:150-mile 345 kV transmission line

Construction began during Q2 FY26.

Sherco Solar facility Phase 3 completed

Benefit:70 MW total capacity

Placed into service during Q2 FY26, making it one of the largest utility-scale solar facilities.

New renewable generation and battery storage pipeline planned

Benefit:nearly 13 GW

Part of the 5-plus year portfolio for which strategic partnerships are being formed.

New natural gas generation pipeline planned

Benefit:over 3 GW

Part of the 5-plus year portfolio for which strategic partnerships are being formed.

New high-voltage transmission line miles pipeline planned

Benefit:nearly 2,000 miles

Part of the 5-plus year portfolio for which strategic partnerships are being formed.

Risks & headwinds

Wildfire risk in Colorado Current season

Low snowpack last winter, continued drought conditions

Mitigation:Increased EPSS and PSPS activities, installation of AI-enabled cameras and weather stations, system hardening, enhanced customer communication.

Regulatory intervention for settlements Next few months

Not quantified

Mitigation:Worked hard with parties to reach settlements, hopeful commissions recognize public interest.

Hyperscaler pushback on large load tariffs

Not quantified

Mitigation:Tariffs are designed with strong customer protections and contract provisions, ensuring new load pays its full share; working with stakeholders.

What to watch in Q3 FY26

2026 EPS Guidance Tightening

Q3 FY26
Current $4.04 to $4.16
Target Tightened range

Why it matters

Management typically tightens guidance in Q3, providing more clarity on full-year earnings expectations.

Our just regular cadence is we tightened guidance in Q3.

Find out whether XEL delivers this. Inve re-checks your case every morning.

Q&A highlights

How do the $6 billion SPS CapEx and broader tailwinds impact the 9%+ EPS growth target, and how does the company view the structural opportunity for generation wins and EPC capabilities?

Management confirmed the $6 billion SPS investment contributes to over $10 billion in incremental opportunities, some extending into the early 2030s. They reiterated the 9-plus percent EPS growth through 2030, noting a Q3 update will align the new capital and financing plan. They highlighted their regulated generation development team's ability to deliver low-cost projects and the strategic advantage of their service territories for energy-intensive industries due to sustainable and cost-effective energy.

“As I think about -- I said in Q1, we talked about 9% EPS growth through 2030. You heard you picked up on the language you say 9-plus percent EPS growth through 2030.”

asked by Richard Sunderland · answered by Brian Van Abel

3 min read 7 chapters

Detailed narrative

Regulatory Execution and Customer Affordability

Xcel Energy demonstrated strong regulatory execution, advancing settlements or decisions in 6 active rate cases. These outcomes are designed to keep long-term bill growth at or below the rate of inflation and maintain total energy bills among the lowest in the country. The company also expanded energy assistance programs in Colorado and Minnesota, nearly doubling participation and significantly increasing accessibility and funding for vulnerable customers.

Capital Delivery and Strategic Partnerships

The company invested $3 billion in Q2 and over $6 billion year-to-date in critical infrastructure. Xcel Energy emphasizes strategic partnerships with Tier 1 suppliers and EPC vendors, shifting its approach to ensure access to labor and equipment capacity for its 5-plus year portfolio, which includes nearly 13 GW of new renewable generation and battery storage, over 3 GW of new natural gas generation, and nearly 2,000 high-voltage transmission line miles.

This approach aims to deliver projects on budget, on time, and on scope.

SPS RFP Outcome and Incremental Investment Opportunities

The independent monitor for the SPS RFP filed a report selecting Xcel Energy to provide 2,400 MW of renewables and 200 MW of natural gas-fired generation, representing 70% of the total recommended portfolio and approximately $6 billion of new investment in Texas and New Mexico.

This outcome brings the company's line of sight for incremental investment to over $10 billion, with additional opportunities expected from future RFPs in Colorado and the Upper Midwest, and generation to support data center demand.

Data Center Strategy and Pipeline

Xcel Energy is confident in its data center forecast, with 1 GW already in operation or under construction and an additional 1 GW under signed ESAs. The company expects to secure another 4 GW of data center load by year-end 2027, including at least 1 GW by the end of 2026.

This growth is supported by a high-probability pipeline exceeding 20 GW and a disciplined approach using large load tariffs to protect existing customers and ensure new load pays its full share.

Wildfire Mitigation Efforts in Colorado

In response to challenging wildfire conditions, Xcel Energy has implemented a comprehensive mitigation plan in Colorado. This includes installing over 50 AI-enabled cameras and nearly 300 weather stations for improved situational awareness, executing Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) and Enhanced Powerline Safety System (EPSS) activities, and hardening the system through pole inspections and replacements.

The company is also working on state legislation and plans to file a new wildfire mitigation plan in early 2027.

Stance on New Nuclear Energy

While advocating for nuclear energy at a national level, Xcel Energy stated it will not be an early adopter of new nuclear power plants. The company is confident in its ability to meet growing energy needs with its existing portfolio of wind, solar, storage, and gas-fired backups, given its access to abundant renewable resources.

New dispatchable carbon-free technologies, including advanced nuclear, are seen as necessary for mid-century carbon-free goals but are not yet commercially viable for near-term resource plans.

Large Load Tariffs and Customer Benefits

Xcel Energy has received approval for its large load tariff in Minnesota and filed similar tariffs in Colorado and Wisconsin. These tariffs are designed to ensure that new large load customers, such as data centers, pay their full and fair share for generation and interconnection costs.

This approach protects existing customers by spreading the cost of fixed assets over more units of production, driving economic benefits, and supporting new infrastructure development in the regions.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.