XP (XP) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Seeking color on Victor Mansur's departure and Gustavo Alejo's appointment, and whether this indicates a major change in strategy, especially given XP's banking license and capital requirements.

Management stated the transition was well-planned over several months to bring in banking expertise. It does not signal any major change in strategy, which remains consistent with the past three years. Victor Mansur will remain an important partner in new ventures.

“We don't have any change on our strategy. So it's the same thing we have been talking for the past 3 years. So no major change, no big change. It's more of the same looking forward. So no change on the strategy.”

asked by Tito Labarta · answered by Thiago Maffra

Asking if the credit spread widening impact on revenues is expected to recover completely in Q2 or take longer.

Management does not expect a full recovery in Q2, as April still saw widening (though smaller than March). May showed stabilization, but compression is not expected until Q3 or Q4. However, other business lines are expected to compensate, allowing for double-digit full-year growth.

“We don't expect the market to recover on Q2 because if you take a look on what happened in April. There was also a widening on the spreads, much smaller than March than the first quarter. We do not expect any impact on Q2 because our ecosystem and the other business line will compensate even more than what we lost in April.”

asked by Tito Labarta · answered by Thiago Maffra

Inquiring about the future mix of capital distribution, given the historical 50/50 split and the current announcement being heavily weighted towards buybacks.

For the current year, the mix is heavily skewed towards buybacks (BRL 2 billion buybacks vs. BRL 500 million dividends), which management believes is the best approach given the current stock price and shareholder mix. The exact combination will depend on market conditions.

“I think for now, more than half than what announced, actually, BRL 2 billion will be is buybacks and BRL 500 million are dividends. I think for our mix of shareholders and the price of the stock now, that's the best mix, and we are going to keep this pace over the year to get the end of the guidance. And exactly what would be the combination between one and the other depend on the stock level and the market environment and then we go. But for now, more than 75% is buybacks.”

asked by Thiago Bovolenta Batista · answered by Victor Mansur

Asking if the company can take further cost actions to compensate if revenue growth is slower than expected, to maintain efficiency.

Management is committed to maintaining a "flattish" efficiency ratio for the year, even if revenues are softer. While the initial plan is to continue investments, there is flexibility to manage costs if needed to preserve efficiency.

“I felt that would be flattish year-over-year. And I think over the year, if the scenario start deteriorating, we are committed to not lose efficiency because of costs. So there is margin. Of course, the initial plan is to keep our investments. But if needed, we are committing to deliver a flattish efficiency ratio over the year and keep the pace of the revenue.”

asked by Eduardo Rosman · answered by Victor Mansur

Seeking an update on the adoption of fixed base fee models, how IFAs are reacting, and the evolution of this strategy.

Approximately 25% of individual AUC is currently under flat fees or fee-based models, and this is growing. The company expects this to reach 50% of AUC in the next 3-5 years, driven by offering multiple models to clients.

“So today, I would say, about 25% of our total individual AUC is under flat fees or fee-based model. So it's growing. We believe in 3, 4 years, it's probably be half of the AUC when you look consulting model or fee-based model. So these models, they are growing, and we expect them like to reach 50%, I would say, in the next 3, 4, 5 years.”

asked by Eduardo Rosman · answered by Thiago Maffra

Inquiring about the recent NPS trend, noting it was low in Q4 and decreased further in Q1 (61%), and expectations for recovery.

The Q1 NPS reflects a moving average, with the lowest point in December/early January. Current indicators show NPS already at 70%. Q2 will show improvement, and the company expects to return to historical levels by Q3.

“On Q2, you see the number improving. And if we look at the number that we are right now, it's already at 70%, okay? So 70%. So we are almost back on the current view. But again, as we report a moving average, you see Q2 higher than Q1, but not at 70% yet. So probably on Q3, you see 70% plus and back to normal levels.”

asked by Arnon Shirazi · answered by Thiago Maffra